Can you elaborate? Are you talking about the goad ability, the tap target artifact ability, or both? Unless I'm mistaken, a goaded creature can still attack you in 1 v. 1, although I guess forcing an opponent to make "chump attacks" could be a decent defensive play. Still three mana to remove a creature that already didn't have good attacks though.
The two things I would say are that I think the decks wanting 3 cost mana rocks are more interested in playing defense than offense. Goad is not an amazing defensive ability, (although you can see some "chump attacks,") but it is inherently more defensive than making a creature unblockable.
After the model was established with the Warhammer 40K decks, Doctor Who appears to provide a fresh batch of powerful Peasant cards. While a few themes may be a little niche for some, there are plenty of great cards to speak on.
Here is my Too Early Top 10 from Doctor Who Commander.
10) Zygon Infiltrator- A weird tempo Clone mix that has some great targets out there, since the best creatures to lock down and also the best to copy. Too many creatures get value on their ETB and an expensive sorcery speed tap ability probably will not get there.
9) Atraxi Warden- I agree that suspending this (or Star Whale and Judoon Enforcers) is almost untenable. It is not even just how long the creature takes to impact the board (although it has haste), it is also how rough it is taking an early turn off for no impact until turn 7 or 8 or 9. Warden is huge and evasion with possible card advantage, all the hallmarks of a strong 6-drop.
8) Laser Screwdriver (and Sonic Screwdriver)- Bonder's Ornament is likely the only 3 cost mana rock worth considering and these Screwdrivers offer similar upside. A slight edge to the Laser for being a better defensive card.
7) Bigger on the Inside- A tough sell as a 5-drop with (likely) no immediate value. The returns can be really large after a couple of turns and this feels like a signpost for a BIG Gruul section.
6) Cyberman Patrol- A potentially punishing colorless 2 drop. If you can keep this from being outclassed for a while in combat, Afflict becomes more dangerous. Sometimes it just trades on attacks early and they lose 3.
5) Ominous Cemetery- A solid land, perfect as an 18th land with spell upside or a utility land for mono-colored decks.
4) Sibylline Soothsayer- An understatted 3-drop that is sorta card advantage and sorta mana advantage sorta reminds me of Llanowar Visionary, an extremely playable green 3-drop.
3) Iraxxa, Empress of Mars- A very wellstatted creature that plays decently on its own and with creatures. Infrequently makes its own extra 2/2s.
2) Sontaran General- An upgrade to an already excellent creature in Charging Monstrosaur. I will certainly be playing both.
1) Clockwork Droid- I really love this thing. A two-mana 3/1 with exceptional upside that is available to every color. Excellent play that constantly threatens damage AND scrys. Porcelain Legionnaire is the only card that really compares to (and exceeds) this.
I will add Ominious Cemetery for consideration. Has the same cost to remove a creature as Mouth of Ronom, which is a solid snow land for those playing snow. Solid as a 18th land or as a 17th land in a mono-colored deck.
EDIT:
Ominious Cemetery
Land
T: Add C
5, T, Exile ~: Target creature's owner shuffles it into their library.
I currently play two from the first group and three from the second. I want to hold off on my rankings, because I suspect they are different from most people's and I do not want to influence any one else.
Not a fan of Bitter Chill? That was the only instant include of mine I didn't see on your list.
I got pretty down on Aura based removal recently, due to all the flickering, bounce, sacrifice, and fight spells that work with the creature still being on the battlefiled. (The exception being the banned in Pauper Fall from Favor.)
I never really thought about Bitter Chill as a result, but this is possibly the best upside on a two-mana Aura, comparable to Realmbreaker's Grasp also hitting artifacts.
The Wilds of Eldraine are wide open for business, the first Standard legal set (somehow) in the last 4 months. I was initially disappointed in the power level I grew accustomed to, but Throne of Eldraine was a historically powerful set, and I think the Wilds of Eldraine has plenty of interesting cards to discuss for a Too Early Top 20 list. As always, I have a 512 card cube with 6 spells and 3 lands per guild. Onto the Wilds!
Ruby, Daring Tracker- Sharing the name of my 12 year old dachshund means you might get cubed on principle. It is a two-mana accelerant that can attack as a 3/4, but mostly has my dog's name.
20) Spellscorn Covenand Threadbind Clique- Two guild spells where each half is situationally strong, but overpriced. Reminded me a lot of Amethyst Dragon, which some people really like. Of these two cards, I think Rip the Seams is the best adventure and Spellscorn Coven the best creature.
19) Shrouded Shepherd- This has the benefit of being an interesting white 2-drop that helps push through damage. As a complete package, a side-grade to the compelling Night Clubber.
18) Callous Sell-Sword- The adventure is situationally very useful to close out games. As a guild spell, paying 1BR for a 3/3 and a small effect from a creature sacrifice looks a lot like Fell Stinger and another mono-black Wilds of Eldraine card.
17) Totentanz, Swarm Piper- Compares very closely to Anax, Hardened in the Forge. They both have upsides compared to the other, but with Rakdos having so many powerful sacrifice spells already, adding Totentanz is a tough sell.
16) Gadwick's First Duel- There are lots of conditions involved, but it is possible to get 5 mana of value out of this Saga.
15) Johann, Apprentice Sorcerer- A reasonably priced version of this effect which is also decently sized as a creature. An interesting way to build Izzet spells as more controlling.
14) Mocking Sprite- The first mono-blue version of this effect. For a spell heavy deck, this could mean just as much as Guttersnipe does.
13) Dark Tutelage- Good card advantage for aggro only. After adding so many big haymakers from Commander Masters, I like getting a card advantage engine that helps fight against those haymakers.
12) Up the Beanstalk- On the other hand, those haymakers need some early jabs to throw. I doubt we have the deep roster of pitch/delve 5+ CMC spells that really make this shine, but this does cycle at two mana and help the ramp decks.
11) Eriette's Tempting Apple- We have Act of Aggression as a colorless Threaten, but that felt so "all or nothing" outside of Red. A little easier for other aggressive colors to use this effect to race with the extra life gain or life loss.
10) Quick Study- A great baseline effect to compare our other 3 and 4 mana draw spells with. Also might be good enough itself in controlling and spell slinging decks.
9) Witchstalker Frenzy- A powerful effect that the attacking decks can bring down to 1-mana. Also good against the attacking decks, but more inconsistent. Takes extra effort to get a premium removal spell.
Wild Cards
8) Monstrous Rage- A cheap spell to push through damage throughout the game. Only providing +1 toughness limits the effectiveness as a combat trick.
7) Lord Skitter's Butcher- A decent sac outlet, a decent token creator, and a decent way to push through damage. Versatile, but not exceptional in any role.
6) Faerie Dreamthief- Another versatile creature that provides extra value for graveyard based decks. Interested to see how powerful Dreamthief is in that deck.
5) Hearth Elemental- Stoke Genius feels like a spell I never want to cast, but is potentially very powerful. Very cool for red to have an effect like this, even if I wish the creature was a little bigger.
Wild Things That Make My Heart Sing
4) Picklock Prankster- My blue section is becoming more and more graveyard based, so having a self-mill spell tied to a cheap defensive creature is awesome. A smidge underwhelming at 2UU, but you can pay in installments.
3) Cheeky House-Mouse- A 2/1 for W with some late-game relevance. White has a deep roster of good 1-mana creatures now.
2) Stormkeld Vanguard- A great combination of cheap Naturalize plus big chonker. Vanguard will crowd out a similar card, but I expect great results from this.
1) Embereth Veteran- A historic 2/1 for R at Peasant. The sacrifice is not the biggest upside, but that Young Hero Role could take an 2/1 flier all the way up to a 5/4 after a few attacks. Looking forward to more red 2/1s in the future.
Dark Tutelage is interesting because it is a card advantage engine that does not get automatically sucked up by the midrange/control decks. I did a quick review of some recent black decks I drafted on CubeCobra and found a pretty big discrepancy in the average CMC between decks.
Dimir Control/Reanimator- 2.05
Rakdos Sacrifice- 1.425
Golgari Graveyard- 2.1
Grixis Control- 2.1
Orzhov Aggro- 1.325
Sultai Reanimator- 2.325
Mardu Sacrifice- 1.475
I have no idea if the more aggressive decks want to take a turn off to draw a card and take ~1.4 damage a turn, but finding cards that work like this is super cool to me.
We got some Wilds of Eldraine promo packs opened, so we have 4 of the 5 common/uncommon promo cards listed:
Torch The Tower R
Instant
Bargain (You may sacrifice an artifact, enchantment, or token as you cast this spell.)
Torch the Tower deals 2 damage to target creature or planeswalker.
If this spell was bargained, instead it deals 3 damage to that permanent and you scry 1.
If a permanent dealt damage by Torch the Tower would die this turn, exile it instead.
Stroke of Midnight 2W
Instant
Destroy target nonland permanent. Its controller creates a 1/1 white Human creature token.
Tanglespan Lookout 2G
Creature - Satyr
Whenever an Aura enters the battlefield under your control, draw a card.
2/3
Faerie Dreamthief B
Creature - Faerie Warlock
Flying
When ~ enters the battlefield, surveil 1.
2B, Exile ~ from your graveyard: Draw a card and lose 1 life.
1/1
Stroke of Midnight looks interesting as catch-all removal with a smaller drawback than Generous Gift, but also lacks the ability to create your own 3/3. Depending on how much enchantment removal is around, this could be a smaller downside than Oblivion Ring.
Faerie Dreamthief has a little graveyard upside and a decent body for one mana. I doubt it does any single thing well, but if you like Ninjas, this seems to be a great body for that.
In a hypothetical 3rd scenario, I would play 2WW to draw 2 and gain 6 life as a spell.
This is actually kinda funny. You could imagine a world where you would take 4 spells and line them up, trading a card for half the life gained. On one end, you have gain 24 life with no draw, and on the other end you get Concentrate + 3 life.
To clarify, this is actually my comment you are quoting from.
I went from Gain 20 life to Draw 1 and gain 12 life to Draw 2 and gain 6 life.
I have no clear geometric or arthimetic formula for this other than just a feeling that gaining the 1st card is worth more life than gaining the 2nd. The effectiveness of life gain is so dependant on the current game state, hence my spitballing these cards ideas from there.
For 2WW, I would be happy drawing a card and gaining 12 life. It is still not a "1 card equals X life" scenario other than just a feeling that you can give away 8 of the 20 life from answer #1 to get 1 card that would help with all the extra time you bought.
In a hypothetical 3rd scenario, I would play 2WW to draw 2 amd gain 6 life as a spell.
There are reasonable discussions to be had about "How much life is a card worth?" and "How many cards do you need to make up when your 4-mana sorcery does not impact the board?"
I sometimes call Ribbons of Night a 3-for-1, not because 4 life equals a card, but because you have presumably killed the largest creature and you are comparing that 4 life against their remaining 2-drop, and those could be roughly equal.
A lot of people cube Harmonize, which similarly does not impact the board, but instead prepares you to impact the board.
Just btw Pianna was uncommon already in MTGO Vintage Masters.
Strangely enough, I actually did put together the list on online downshifts for Vintage Masters, way down on page 7 of these forums.
Online only uncommons never really appealed to me, since it feels so complicated to explain to people how this card is uncommon. I would rather play weird silver border stuff and conspiracies since at least those were printed at uncommon.
I feel like I am undervaluing Aryel, knight of windgrace. The base stats are so solid that his average case scenario is hard to ignore. With one token in play, it kills an awful lot of things. I love my Maw of the obzedat, and Maw has a completely game-ending, not-too-hard-to-reach Best case scenario, but the floor is admittedly shaky. Ugh.
Aryel was really good in Dominaria drafts. I think that set had more Knight support compared to most of our Cubes and relying on Aryel to do all the work in creating Knights for its ability will be slightly underwhelming.
Wow! I did not expect the deluge of downshifts provided by this Commander Masters set. I figured they would be 10 or so cards to talk about, but there are definitely enough interesting cards here to allow for another Commander booster release Too Early Top 25 list.
The most interesting thing this set does is give lots of colors relevant spells at 6+ mana. I am planning a lot of swaps for this set, and many of them are swapping out grindy 2-4 mana spells for more aggressive/tempo spells to help fight these 6 mana haymakers.
Onto the list of 5 tiers of 5 cards each. My cube is 512 cards, 6 spells and 3 lands per guild, maximized for power.
25) Kazuul, Tyrant of the Cliffs- Is it a big threat that also holds off little creatures or a roadblock that mucks up the board until a player does something else? Probably a little too much of the latter.
24) Aryel, Knight of Windgrace- An excellent creature in its native draft format, but without Dominaria's Knight focus, Aryel probably underwhelms.
23) Priest of the Blood Rite- A big stats monster without any specific synergies for black. But it is a LOT of stats.
22) Subira, Tulzidi Caravanner- I do not think the full package of spending your turn to sneak in 5 damage and draw 3 cards happens too often. It is a decent body on its own and can drive in a lot of damage.
21) AEther Gale- This bounces their whole board a vast majority of the time. Does that make this a blue sweeper or an overpriced Fog?
20) Taigam, Sidisi's Hand- Untapping with this creature provides card selection and a powerful kill ability. I play Ribbons of Night for the same mana and a guaranteed 3-for-1. This is more powerful, but less likely.
19) Oviya Pashiri, Sage Lifecrafter- Every once in a while, this is a great way to win the game. Other times, it is too much investment for too little a result.
18) Rakka Mar- Feels pretty decent as a 5-drop making a 3/1 attacker that turn. We have more and more 5+ mana red creatures with bigger immediate impacts.
17) Gorex, the Tombshell- Feels harder to cast on 4 mana than Gurmag Angler, but you should also get one extra card out of the deal. And imagine casting this on 2-mana!
16) Isareth the Awakener- Strong ability that lets you continue developing your board without going down on cards. Decently sized and statted whenever the ability is not active.
15) Skyline Despot- You totally get what you pay for here: a 5/5 flier that draws a card on EOT and may give you continuous dragons. It can go badly against an opponent with the right cards against it.
14) Tromokratis- A super hard creature to stop in combat with built-in resilience. Not going to accomplish a lot if you are way behind on board.
13) Forebear's Blade- The initial investment is large, but getting this equipped once with another creature in play should dominate the board for a long while.
12) Rorix Bladewing- A great top-end threat that has to be answered in one turn cycle. Almost certainly the best red 6+ mana creature.
11) Thryx, the Sudden Storm- Seems simple enough to ambush an attacker with a 4/5 flash flier, which also attacks really well.
Generically Great Cards
10) Surrak, the Hunt Caller- Should frequently attack with 5 power and haste on turn 4 and extends that benefit to later creatures.
9) Goreclaw, Terror of Qal Sisma- A 5/4 trampling attacker while also providing extra oomph to other big attackers.
8) Judith, the Scourge Diva- An excellent way to support the sacrifice deck without requiring sacrifices directly. Makes your board more threatening the turn she hits the battlefield.
7) Pianna, Nomad Captain- Like Goreclaw and Judith, provides a big boost to other creatures. Pianna should effortlessly fit into any white deck.
6) Gonti, Lord of Luxury- Excellent defensive body that Impulses your opponent's deck for a powerful spell. Should also fit into any black deck.
Important Archetype Support-
5) Yahenni, Undying Partisan- Difficult to kill, free sacrifice outlet and grows over the course of the game.
4) Kirtar's Wrath and 3) Extinguish All Hope- Two new board wipes that allow controlling decks to get back into the game. The white wrath is better, but black is currently a better control color for my cube.
2) Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit- Great early card that will pump future creatures, plays into +1/+1 synergies and enables some Persist combos.
1) Rishkar, Peema Renegade- Puts a ton of stats on the board for 2G and also plays great with green's +1/+1 synergies and ramp strategies.
Kazuul, Tyrant of the Cliffs was revealed as an uncommon in the main set via the Planeswalker Commander deck.
Kazuul could be a must-kill not in the sense that you lose if it stays alive but that you cannot win if it stays alive. It seems extremely hard to race in any scenario other than immediate kill spell or fliers in the air while you are at 4 life. That said, if it's just stalling the board where neither side can attack profitably, I would want more.
My first thought is that Kazuul compares to the suite of controlling 5+ mana red spells. I think I would rather have this than Amethyst Dragon, for example. Does it outperform Slice and Dice by stopping the go-wide deck and being a 5/4?
The two things I would say are that I think the decks wanting 3 cost mana rocks are more interested in playing defense than offense. Goad is not an amazing defensive ability, (although you can see some "chump attacks,") but it is inherently more defensive than making a creature unblockable.
Here is my Too Early Top 10 from Doctor Who Commander.
10) Zygon Infiltrator- A weird tempo Clone mix that has some great targets out there, since the best creatures to lock down and also the best to copy. Too many creatures get value on their ETB and an expensive sorcery speed tap ability probably will not get there.
9) Atraxi Warden- I agree that suspending this (or Star Whale and Judoon Enforcers) is almost untenable. It is not even just how long the creature takes to impact the board (although it has haste), it is also how rough it is taking an early turn off for no impact until turn 7 or 8 or 9. Warden is huge and evasion with possible card advantage, all the hallmarks of a strong 6-drop.
8) Laser Screwdriver (and Sonic Screwdriver)- Bonder's Ornament is likely the only 3 cost mana rock worth considering and these Screwdrivers offer similar upside. A slight edge to the Laser for being a better defensive card.
7) Bigger on the Inside- A tough sell as a 5-drop with (likely) no immediate value. The returns can be really large after a couple of turns and this feels like a signpost for a BIG Gruul section.
6) Cyberman Patrol- A potentially punishing colorless 2 drop. If you can keep this from being outclassed for a while in combat, Afflict becomes more dangerous. Sometimes it just trades on attacks early and they lose 3.
5) Ominous Cemetery- A solid land, perfect as an 18th land with spell upside or a utility land for mono-colored decks.
4) Sibylline Soothsayer- An understatted 3-drop that is sorta card advantage and sorta mana advantage sorta reminds me of Llanowar Visionary, an extremely playable green 3-drop.
3) Iraxxa, Empress of Mars- A very wellstatted creature that plays decently on its own and with creatures. Infrequently makes its own extra 2/2s.
2) Sontaran General- An upgrade to an already excellent creature in Charging Monstrosaur. I will certainly be playing both.
1) Clockwork Droid- I really love this thing. A two-mana 3/1 with exceptional upside that is available to every color. Excellent play that constantly threatens damage AND scrys. Porcelain Legionnaire is the only card that really compares to (and exceeds) this.
EDIT:
Ominious Cemetery
Land
T: Add C
5, T, Exile ~: Target creature's owner shuffles it into their library.
Rank the following groups of one-mana instants.
Black Creature Returning:
Feign Death/Undying Malice
Malakir Rebirth
Not Dead After All
Supernatural Stamina
Undying Evil
Green Creature Saving:
Blossoming Defense
Royal Treatment
Snakeskin Veil
Tamiyo's Safekeeping
Tyvar's Stand
I currently play two from the first group and three from the second. I want to hold off on my rankings, because I suspect they are different from most people's and I do not want to influence any one else.
I got pretty down on Aura based removal recently, due to all the flickering, bounce, sacrifice, and fight spells that work with the creature still being on the battlefiled. (The exception being the banned in Pauper Fall from Favor.)
I never really thought about Bitter Chill as a result, but this is possibly the best upside on a two-mana Aura, comparable to Realmbreaker's Grasp also hitting artifacts.
Stroke of Midnight, Not Dead After All, Two-Headed Hunter, Twisted Fealty, Royal Treatment- Variations on spells we sometimes play. Some people (including me) might try them out, but there is not much to say.
Ruby, Daring Tracker- Sharing the name of my 12 year old dachshund means you might get cubed on principle. It is a two-mana accelerant that can attack as a 3/4, but mostly has my dog's name.
20) Spellscorn Covenand Threadbind Clique- Two guild spells where each half is situationally strong, but overpriced. Reminded me a lot of Amethyst Dragon, which some people really like. Of these two cards, I think Rip the Seams is the best adventure and Spellscorn Coven the best creature.
19) Shrouded Shepherd- This has the benefit of being an interesting white 2-drop that helps push through damage. As a complete package, a side-grade to the compelling Night Clubber.
18) Callous Sell-Sword- The adventure is situationally very useful to close out games. As a guild spell, paying 1BR for a 3/3 and a small effect from a creature sacrifice looks a lot like Fell Stinger and another mono-black Wilds of Eldraine card.
17) Totentanz, Swarm Piper- Compares very closely to Anax, Hardened in the Forge. They both have upsides compared to the other, but with Rakdos having so many powerful sacrifice spells already, adding Totentanz is a tough sell.
16) Gadwick's First Duel- There are lots of conditions involved, but it is possible to get 5 mana of value out of this Saga.
15) Johann, Apprentice Sorcerer- A reasonably priced version of this effect which is also decently sized as a creature. An interesting way to build Izzet spells as more controlling.
14) Mocking Sprite- The first mono-blue version of this effect. For a spell heavy deck, this could mean just as much as Guttersnipe does.
13) Dark Tutelage- Good card advantage for aggro only. After adding so many big haymakers from Commander Masters, I like getting a card advantage engine that helps fight against those haymakers.
12) Up the Beanstalk- On the other hand, those haymakers need some early jabs to throw. I doubt we have the deep roster of pitch/delve 5+ CMC spells that really make this shine, but this does cycle at two mana and help the ramp decks.
11) Eriette's Tempting Apple- We have Act of Aggression as a colorless Threaten, but that felt so "all or nothing" outside of Red. A little easier for other aggressive colors to use this effect to race with the extra life gain or life loss.
10) Quick Study- A great baseline effect to compare our other 3 and 4 mana draw spells with. Also might be good enough itself in controlling and spell slinging decks.
9) Witchstalker Frenzy- A powerful effect that the attacking decks can bring down to 1-mana. Also good against the attacking decks, but more inconsistent. Takes extra effort to get a premium removal spell.
Wild Cards
8) Monstrous Rage- A cheap spell to push through damage throughout the game. Only providing +1 toughness limits the effectiveness as a combat trick.
7) Lord Skitter's Butcher- A decent sac outlet, a decent token creator, and a decent way to push through damage. Versatile, but not exceptional in any role.
6) Faerie Dreamthief- Another versatile creature that provides extra value for graveyard based decks. Interested to see how powerful Dreamthief is in that deck.
5) Hearth Elemental- Stoke Genius feels like a spell I never want to cast, but is potentially very powerful. Very cool for red to have an effect like this, even if I wish the creature was a little bigger.
Wild Things That Make My Heart Sing
4) Picklock Prankster- My blue section is becoming more and more graveyard based, so having a self-mill spell tied to a cheap defensive creature is awesome. A smidge underwhelming at 2UU, but you can pay in installments.
3) Cheeky House-Mouse- A 2/1 for W with some late-game relevance. White has a deep roster of good 1-mana creatures now.
2) Stormkeld Vanguard- A great combination of cheap Naturalize plus big chonker. Vanguard will crowd out a similar card, but I expect great results from this.
1) Embereth Veteran- A historic 2/1 for R at Peasant. The sacrifice is not the biggest upside, but that Young Hero Role could take an 2/1 flier all the way up to a 5/4 after a few attacks. Looking forward to more red 2/1s in the future.
Dimir Control/Reanimator- 2.05
Rakdos Sacrifice- 1.425
Golgari Graveyard- 2.1
Grixis Control- 2.1
Orzhov Aggro- 1.325
Sultai Reanimator- 2.325
Mardu Sacrifice- 1.475
I have no idea if the more aggressive decks want to take a turn off to draw a card and take ~1.4 damage a turn, but finding cards that work like this is super cool to me.
Torch The Tower R
Instant
Bargain (You may sacrifice an artifact, enchantment, or token as you cast this spell.)
Torch the Tower deals 2 damage to target creature or planeswalker.
If this spell was bargained, instead it deals 3 damage to that permanent and you scry 1.
If a permanent dealt damage by Torch the Tower would die this turn, exile it instead.
Stroke of Midnight 2W
Instant
Destroy target nonland permanent. Its controller creates a 1/1 white Human creature token.
Tanglespan Lookout 2G
Creature - Satyr
Whenever an Aura enters the battlefield under your control, draw a card.
2/3
Faerie Dreamthief B
Creature - Faerie Warlock
Flying
When ~ enters the battlefield, surveil 1.
2B, Exile ~ from your graveyard: Draw a card and lose 1 life.
1/1
Stroke of Midnight looks interesting as catch-all removal with a smaller drawback than Generous Gift, but also lacks the ability to create your own 3/3. Depending on how much enchantment removal is around, this could be a smaller downside than Oblivion Ring.
Faerie Dreamthief has a little graveyard upside and a decent body for one mana. I doubt it does any single thing well, but if you like Ninjas, this seems to be a great body for that.
I updated the links and they were both good for me again!
To clarify, this is actually my comment you are quoting from.
I went from Gain 20 life to Draw 1 and gain 12 life to Draw 2 and gain 6 life.
I have no clear geometric or arthimetic formula for this other than just a feeling that gaining the 1st card is worth more life than gaining the 2nd. The effectiveness of life gain is so dependant on the current game state, hence my spitballing these cards ideas from there.
For 2WW, I would be happy drawing a card and gaining 12 life. It is still not a "1 card equals X life" scenario other than just a feeling that you can give away 8 of the 20 life from answer #1 to get 1 card that would help with all the extra time you bought.
In a hypothetical 3rd scenario, I would play 2WW to draw 2 amd gain 6 life as a spell.
20.
There are reasonable discussions to be had about "How much life is a card worth?" and "How many cards do you need to make up when your 4-mana sorcery does not impact the board?"
I sometimes call Ribbons of Night a 3-for-1, not because 4 life equals a card, but because you have presumably killed the largest creature and you are comparing that 4 life against their remaining 2-drop, and those could be roughly equal.
A lot of people cube Harmonize, which similarly does not impact the board, but instead prepares you to impact the board.
Those two situations helped me get to my answer.
Strangely enough, I actually did put together the list on online downshifts for Vintage Masters, way down on page 7 of these forums.
Online only uncommons never really appealed to me, since it feels so complicated to explain to people how this card is uncommon. I would rather play weird silver border stuff and conspiracies since at least those were printed at uncommon.
Aryel was really good in Dominaria drafts. I think that set had more Knight support compared to most of our Cubes and relying on Aryel to do all the work in creating Knights for its ability will be slightly underwhelming.
The most interesting thing this set does is give lots of colors relevant spells at 6+ mana. I am planning a lot of swaps for this set, and many of them are swapping out grindy 2-4 mana spells for more aggressive/tempo spells to help fight these 6 mana haymakers.
Onto the list of 5 tiers of 5 cards each. My cube is 512 cards, 6 spells and 3 lands per guild, maximized for power.
25) Kazuul, Tyrant of the Cliffs- Is it a big threat that also holds off little creatures or a roadblock that mucks up the board until a player does something else? Probably a little too much of the latter.
24) Aryel, Knight of Windgrace- An excellent creature in its native draft format, but without Dominaria's Knight focus, Aryel probably underwhelms.
23) Priest of the Blood Rite- A big stats monster without any specific synergies for black. But it is a LOT of stats.
22) Subira, Tulzidi Caravanner- I do not think the full package of spending your turn to sneak in 5 damage and draw 3 cards happens too often. It is a decent body on its own and can drive in a lot of damage.
21) AEther Gale- This bounces their whole board a vast majority of the time. Does that make this a blue sweeper or an overpriced Fog?
20) Taigam, Sidisi's Hand- Untapping with this creature provides card selection and a powerful kill ability. I play Ribbons of Night for the same mana and a guaranteed 3-for-1. This is more powerful, but less likely.
19) Oviya Pashiri, Sage Lifecrafter- Every once in a while, this is a great way to win the game. Other times, it is too much investment for too little a result.
18) Rakka Mar- Feels pretty decent as a 5-drop making a 3/1 attacker that turn. We have more and more 5+ mana red creatures with bigger immediate impacts.
17) Gorex, the Tombshell- Feels harder to cast on 4 mana than Gurmag Angler, but you should also get one extra card out of the deal. And imagine casting this on 2-mana!
16) Isareth the Awakener- Strong ability that lets you continue developing your board without going down on cards. Decently sized and statted whenever the ability is not active.
15) Skyline Despot- You totally get what you pay for here: a 5/5 flier that draws a card on EOT and may give you continuous dragons. It can go badly against an opponent with the right cards against it.
14) Tromokratis- A super hard creature to stop in combat with built-in resilience. Not going to accomplish a lot if you are way behind on board.
13) Forebear's Blade- The initial investment is large, but getting this equipped once with another creature in play should dominate the board for a long while.
12) Rorix Bladewing- A great top-end threat that has to be answered in one turn cycle. Almost certainly the best red 6+ mana creature.
11) Thryx, the Sudden Storm- Seems simple enough to ambush an attacker with a 4/5 flash flier, which also attacks really well.
Generically Great Cards
10) Surrak, the Hunt Caller- Should frequently attack with 5 power and haste on turn 4 and extends that benefit to later creatures.
9) Goreclaw, Terror of Qal Sisma- A 5/4 trampling attacker while also providing extra oomph to other big attackers.
8) Judith, the Scourge Diva- An excellent way to support the sacrifice deck without requiring sacrifices directly. Makes your board more threatening the turn she hits the battlefield.
7) Pianna, Nomad Captain- Like Goreclaw and Judith, provides a big boost to other creatures. Pianna should effortlessly fit into any white deck.
6) Gonti, Lord of Luxury- Excellent defensive body that Impulses your opponent's deck for a powerful spell. Should also fit into any black deck.
Important Archetype Support-
5) Yahenni, Undying Partisan- Difficult to kill, free sacrifice outlet and grows over the course of the game.
4) Kirtar's Wrath and 3) Extinguish All Hope- Two new board wipes that allow controlling decks to get back into the game. The white wrath is better, but black is currently a better control color for my cube.
2) Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit- Great early card that will pump future creatures, plays into +1/+1 synergies and enables some Persist combos.
1) Rishkar, Peema Renegade- Puts a ton of stats on the board for 2G and also plays great with green's +1/+1 synergies and ramp strategies.
Kazuul could be a must-kill not in the sense that you lose if it stays alive but that you cannot win if it stays alive. It seems extremely hard to race in any scenario other than immediate kill spell or fliers in the air while you are at 4 life. That said, if it's just stalling the board where neither side can attack profitably, I would want more.
My first thought is that Kazuul compares to the suite of controlling 5+ mana red spells. I think I would rather have this than Amethyst Dragon, for example. Does it outperform Slice and Dice by stopping the go-wide deck and being a 5/4?