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  • posted a message on Collector Ouphe, 2/2 green "Stony Silence"
    I don't know how the humans vs affinity matchup is, but I would shut down my vials if I can hate their whole deck
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on [WAR Spoilers] Keanu Reeves, Dinosaur Cowboy
    I don't know if it's needed, but Terastodon can deal with permanents like Leyline of Sanctity and Witchbane Orb, and it's a green fatty
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on [GRN] Esper Control
    I'm sorry, but Chromium, the Mutable can't be countered... It's also really hard to kill with spot removal. It's a good finisher. Maybe slow to drop, but also a fast clock

    Posted in: Established (Standard)
  • posted a message on Loyal Apprentice (for artifacts deck, I imagine?)
    I barely play commander, but I do have a Zurgo for 1vs1. Surprised that nobody even mentions it OMG
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Random Cube Card of the Day Thread
    I cut recently from 465 to 375, but keeping that 2-player package in case we are 10 people. In those 90 cards, I have Stone Rain, Pillage, Sinkhole, Fallow Earth and Ice Storm. I think that these cards are good in aggro (and bad to midrange/goodstuff, the bane of aggro), not just for a Ponza/LD deck. I reworked the 90 card section to enable certain archetypes, not to be the next X best cards to add.

    Where are your favorite non-evergreen keywords on the storm scale?

    I was going to go with Storm, but after checking the list I like Dredge too. Also, Blast from the Past :p
    Posted in: Cube Card and Archetype Discussion
  • posted a message on Random Cube Card of the Day Thread
    Still have to add this, it's quite powerful and supports reanimator and other GY shenanigans.

    -Do you run flip cards? Isn't it such a pain in the ass when they're double sleeved? If you don't have problems getting them in and out double sleeved, what's your secret? Because I usually just pass it to someone else to re-insert lol

    I have duplicates of all the flip cards in clear sleeves. I keep them with the tokens. I also have some amount of Pack Rats to use as tokens.

    -Which Jace is your favorite and why?

    Jace AoT. It's not the obviously OP Mindsculptor, but has a good mix of different abilities and respectable manacost

    -Are you currently learning to do anything, like taking a specific class for a certification or going to school or etc?

    Still waiting for my starter from Prof. Oak, to finally become a pokemon master
    Posted in: Cube Card and Archetype Discussion
  • posted a message on Random Cube Card of the Day Thread
    I can see Polymorph in a big cube as a Show&Tell impersonation. You do need some token generator, and it fails against a timely removal on the target

    I think the interesting discussion could be picking something from a 720 and hearing different cube owners opinions of it regarding the size of their cube (if it makes the cut at 360, 450, 540, or the archetypes it supports). Lots of people read this everyday, not only the regular posters, and maybe someone searching about some particular card can read a few ideas about it.
    Posted in: Cube Card and Archetype Discussion
  • posted a message on [Primer] Living End
    Quote from Morimacil »


    For leylines and numbers:
    I think its important to take into account which leyline it is, in which matchup.

    With for example a t1 leyline of the void vs dredge, you are kind of stopping their entire gameplan until they can deal with it. Multiple leylines are castable, and can serve as insurance that they dont get to deploy their game plan. So in this situation, siding in 4 leylines and even mulliganing aggressively towards them seems worth it. One leyline is worth a ton of virtual card advantage.

    Siding in leylines of sanctity vs grixis shadow though, is different. There, a leyline mostly stops discard spells, but it hardly stops them from winning.
    There, if you have a leyline, and they have a discard spell in hand they cannot cast, your SB card is trading 1 for 1 and you are about even.
    If you draw 2 leylines, or mulligan to a leyline, now your opponent needs 2 dead discard spells in hand for you to be even, otherwise leylines are hurting you more than your opponent.
    If you dont have a leyline in your opening hand, but draw into one, now it is actually having the opposite effect it is supposed to have. Your opponent still gets to use discard, and you have a harder time drawing out of it, because you risk drawing dead leylines.

    Cosmo's numbers are pretty close, gives a good picture. If you account for street wraiths, and calculate the draws out of 49 cards instead of 53, leyline gets slightly worse numbers, and/or if you look at a game that goes slightly longer, with a bigger ratio of cards drawn to cards in opening hand, leylines again get a bit worse.


    So I am not a big fan at all of leylines vs death's shadow.

    Leyline always risks being a dead card in hand. When the upside is that you get to nullify tons of your opponent's cards, like a void leyline vs dredge, of sanctity vs burn, then the tradeoff seems worth it. Sometimes you stop 10 of their cards, sometimes you have a dead card. On average, you end up ahead. You can mull to the leyline, because having 1 less card is worth stopping the opponent's entire strategy.

    When it is just to deal with discard spells of which your opponent has like 7 total, leyline does not seem worth it. Sometimes it "trades", sometimes you get 1 virtual card advantage, and sometimes it is a dead card. Overall you end up about even.
    Using 4 sideboard slots to end up at about the same place as if you sideboarded nothing is not a great place to be.

    Also, be wary of relying too much on leyline of sanctity vs burn. It is obviously great against them, but not as game-winning as a lot of people seem to think. Small creatures and atarka's command is still a thing, and destructive revelry is still a thing. Leylines are good against burn, but they can win through it, just like how a relic might be good against us, but we can win through it. It has to be part of a plan to slow them down and win, it cant be the entire plan.
    Too many people dont test vs burn, just stuff 4 leylines in the board, assume it will be enough to be favored, and then complain about getting unlucky.

    Well, I made it with Leyline of Sanctity in mind, for Living End (it says uncastable Leylines in the first part). What I meant is one could use the same logic for Leyline of the Void in Infect, or something like that. I won't bring it against DS decks, or anything packing discard. This deck is very resilent against discard thanks to cycling. I would consider it vs Burn, Ad Nauseam, Storm, Lantern and Titanshift. As far I can see, you think the same way I do, but it may be useful for those 'LE newbies' looking at this. Agree on not overboarding stuff, it makes the deck less consistent. And of course, 4 Leyline of Sanctity is not going to win you the game against Burn, they just make it less miserable :p

    Quote from Morimacil »

    Cosmo's numbers are pretty close, gives a good picture. If you account for street wraiths, and calculate the draws out of 49 cards instead of 53, leyline gets slightly worse numbers, and/or if you look at a game that goes slightly longer, with a bigger ratio of cards drawn to cards in opening hand, leylines again get a bit worse.

    About Street Wraith making the 53 card deck a 49 one, it's not completely accurate (it's only true if you happen to draw all your Wraiths in those 10/11 cards). One would have to affect the nunmbers with the chance of drawing one or more in the opening, and then 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 wraiths in those 5 draws after the opening 7 for each situation (3 or 4 Leylines in the SB, and the 4 cases after starting the game). It gets really complicated, and I don't have that much time :p I do agree with you, they make Leylines a little bit worse (around 2%, perhaps?), and the situation of 4 Leylines is going to be slightly worse than the other one

    Quote from Morimacil »

    Blood moons:
    I like having additional ways to pressure my opponent's manabase on top of the just fulminators.
    I dont really like how much worse it gets in most matchups if you cant open with it, and I also dislike the fact that when my opponents find a basic, neither blood moon nor fulminators can mess with that.
    For now I have gone - 2 blood moons, and -2 beast within to add in 4 avalanche riders, and it seems quite nice. I think I will try a split between avalanche riders and stone rains, but the ability to take out basic lands is really good in a lot of matches, especially when you can take out multiple lands in a game.
    In long drawn out games vs something like control, the riders also gave a sort of inevitability, vs deaths shadow it means eventually being able to kill all their blue producing lands, even through stubborn denial, and vs control, riders eventually are a 2 for 1, instead of dead cards like extra copies of blood moons would be.
    And they come back with LE, so every once in a while, that is also relevant, you just LE and put them on no lands.
    8 LD spells in our deck is a lot (with all the cyclers), multiple land destruction spells can cripple people. Unlike with blood moon, where ripping a moon off to top after playing an early fulminator is just meh, ripping an avalanche rider after an early fulminator just seals the deal.

    Yeah, BM is a really bad topdeck... It's really good if you can drop it turn 2/3, but decays after that. The only thing I don't like about Avalanche Riders it's the manacost. In my Slaughter Games vs Lost Legacy numbers, I found out that 4 mana is much more than 3 mana in this deck. Now we just need a cycling Avalanche Riders in a future set Wink

    Thanks for your insights!

    Quote from ddxxe »
    That's one thing I have found lately now since the release of Amonkhet is with so many options to choose from in terms of which cyclers to use it's hard for me to pick. That is one thing that I did like about AoW is that Horror of the Broken Lands now makes AoW a lot better, almost curing its only draw back, and that is if you top deck it late game its left stranded in your hand if you don't have blue mana to hard cast it. But thanks to Horror we just cycle it for the +2 pump. Helps shore up its drawback. So many little nuances to the deck now due to the cycler options. Its hard for me to pick which configuration of the deck that I like better.


    The truth is that Horror makes all the cyclers better, not only AoW :p (post LE, of course). AoW doesn't help as much when you are not winning (with RiP in play, for example). Minotaur and Carabid at least can be casted. Nevertheless, I will happilly replace any of them when better cyclers get printed.
    Quote from Tigerpawx »
    Chewer and Shriekmaw together is also a problem.

    Especially when playing against decks like Merfolk when they run annoying creatures and Relic together, so when Shriekmaw and Chewer comeback from Living End Shriekmaw might just kill it, while there are other black creatures like Wraith, Horror which are invaild targets.

    If the Shriekmaw is in your GY, most of the time it has killed something with evoke. Why can't you kill the same dude when you return everything with LE? What am I missing?

    Quote from Morimacil »
    Eternal Scourge There might be some matchups in which this could be useful to side in when they bring in rest in peace or leyline?


    I think that between the castable dudes, Beast Within and Blood Moon if you run it, this deck doesn't have a bad time fighting through hate. Which decks bring those hate cards vs LE? Maybe there's something better to do for 3 mana... I like Eternal Scourge, I use it in Legacy Eldrazi against grindy decks with Wasteland, but a 3/3 is big there...

    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • posted a message on [Primer] Living End
    I was wondering about those Architects of Will instead of Monstrous carabid, then I saw the part about Blood Moon backfiring. Do you value the manipulation effect over the better stats and easier cost? (both cycling and regular casting)


    Thanks for the report!
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • posted a message on [Primer] Living End
    Regarding Leylines (uncastable ones, the ones you draw are dead cards):

    4 Leylines in your deck, chances of getting at least one in play turn 0:
    -opening 7: 39.9%
    -mulligan to 6: 21.1 extra, 61% total
    -mulligan to 5: 11.74 extra, 72.4% total

    3 Leylines in your deck, chances of getting at least one in play turn 0:
    -opening 7: 31.5%
    -mulligan to 6: 18.84 extra, 50.34% total
    -mulligan to 5: 11.57 extra, 61.91% total

    So, having 4 in the SB obviously increases the odds at the cost of 1 extra SB slot. But you also increase the chances of drawing dead copies. Only going to do the numbers for the opening 7, to simplify things. Also, I will consider 5 draws from a 53 card deck (3 draw steps and 2 cyclings, or 2 steps and 3 cyclings). I see 4 situations:
    -You get a Leyline turn 0, and you draw none after that --> perfect hand
    -You get a Leyline turn 0, and you draw one in the following turns -->crappy, but at least you got what you needed. the dead card won't matter that much
    -No Leyline turn 0, and then you draw one --> sadness, everything is terrible
    -No Leyline at all --> neutral

    The chances of getting a Leyline after 5 draws from your 53 card deck are:
    -4 copies still in deck: 33.6%
    -3 copies still in deck: 26.2%
    -2 copies still in deck: 18.1%


    Summing up all the things so far, if you board 4 Leylines:
    - 29.44% perfect outcome
    - 10.46% 'crappy' outcome (got your Leyline, drew another)
    - 20.19% bad outcome
    - 39.91% neutral

    If you board only 3 Leylines:
    - 25.8% perfect outcome
    - 5.70% 'crappy' outcome (got your Leyline, drew another)
    - 17.95% bad outcome
    - 50.55% neutral


    As a personal note, I count the 'crappy' hands as good/OK ones because cards like Leyline usually pull their weight when you get them. I don't mind if I draw dead cards if I got a turn 0 Leyline against Burn, just to name a deck. I also think that the 4th slot you use for the extra Leyline makes your other 3 Leylines better. Regarding off-color Leylines, I would play the full playset.

    Again, I hope the numbers (and logic) are correct Uhh

    edit: not counting the situation when you get 2 Leylines in your opening 7, while calculating the odds of drawing a dead Leyline (it's really small)
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • posted a message on [Primer] GW Hatebears
    Leyline of Sanctity is like a white Blood Moon, it can 'win' a good number of matchups on its own (Burn, Titanshift, Storm, Ad Nauseam), and give some trouble to others, but I don't think you really need it in Hatebears.

    I wouldn't run Scavenging Ooze in the board. It's a good and flexible card, maindeckable. If you want GY hate, use Rest in Peace

    Also, why Spellskite?


    these are my suggestions:
    -3 Dryad Militant
    +1 Scavenging Ooze
    +1 Thalia
    +1 Horizon Canopy

    SB:
    -2 Scavenging Ooze
    -3 Spellskite
    -4 Leyline of Sanctity
    +2 Rest in Peace
    +1 Celestial Purge
    +1 Blessed Alliance
    +1 Creeping Corrosion
    +2 Engineered Explosives
    +2 Burrenton Forge Tender


    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on [Primer] Living End
    Quote from Morimacil »
    For the manabase, I tried this:
    4 Verdant Catacombs
    3 Bloodstained Mire
    3 Shocklands (1 of each)
    3 Basics (1 of each)
    5 Fastlands/Grove (4 B, 4 R, 2 G)
    1 flex slot (Dryad Arbor, Kessig Wolf Run, Gemstone Caverns, or another random land you feel like running)


    It looked great on paper, but playing with it, it was really painful.

    This:


    This is what I will be trying next, closer to what I was running before, hits the color requirements, and doesnt need to pay as much life for mana.


    Keep in mind that is was for Blood Moon in the maindeck :p
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • posted a message on Random Cube Card of the Day Thread
    Quote from ravnic »
    I could swear we already hat this card with the exact same bonus question?


    Wasn't it for Cryptic Command? OMG
    Posted in: Cube Card and Archetype Discussion
  • posted a message on [Primer] Living End
    The other upside for me was the easier cost, regarding colors. Getting R and B at the same time is easier than BB. If SG were 1RB, it would be better than LL. The downside is obviously the cmc in a low land count deck like Living End, getting the fourth land by turn 4 is not an easy task, even when you cycle. That's why I did the numbers, maybe someone using Lost Legacy couldn't cast it in time because of the double color requirement.

    Regarding the manabase, without Blood Moon I would run something like:
    4 Verdant Catacombs
    1 Bloodstained Mire
    2 Swamp
    1 Forest
    3 Shocklands
    8 Fastlands/Grove (5 B, 7 R, 4 G)

    If you want to cut the Mire for some utility land, I would adjust the fastlands/grove accordingly
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
  • posted a message on [Primer] Living End
    Quote from Ken Carson »

    I suppose I should include Lost Legacy over Slaughter Games just since it can come out when most effective. Good call, I'll jam 2 into the board.


    This got me thinking, I had Slaughter Games because there was a RUG Scapeshift in my meta, but the double black in Lost Legacy does count. I did a quick (and I hope, somehow correct) calculations for the chances of having the right mana for LL and SG in turns 3 and 4 (12 and 13 draws). I also did it for LL in turn 4, just to compare it to turn 4 SG. The charts are in function of the amount of Black mana for Lost Legacy, and for Slaughter games the odds of having a R source and a B source at the same time (quite high for turn 4, if you ask me). As a simplification, I assumed that the deck has the same amount of R and B sources



    But I also need to take into account the fact that I need 4 lands to cast Slaughter Games, and only 3 for Lost Legacy (with 19 in the deck). The numbers are:
    -3 lands after 12 draws (turn 3 Lost Legacy): 81.40%
    -3 lands after 13 draws (turn 4 Lost Legacy): 86.30%
    -4 lands after 13 draws (turn 4 Slaughter Games): 65.30%

    Changing the charts with those probabilities, I now have to look at a manabase and see the different chances of casting either with the amount of colored lands there. For example, for this list the chances are:
    -turn 3 Lost Legacy: 68.29%
    -turn 4 Lost Legacy: 75.51%
    -turn 4 Slaughter Games: 62.71%



    Of course, all of this assuming you actually draw Lost Legacy/Slaughter Games :p

    edit: also, Simian Spirit Guide does modify the numbers, I think it favors Slaughter Games slightly

    Quote from Morimacil »

    The manabase is probably the part where we could most easily reach a consensus.
    Stock manabase for people playing with blood moon, stock manabase for people playing without.

    Probably also one of the areas most worth improving, being able to cycle everything on time and easily makes everything much smoother, lets you draw your other cards, and generally just makes the deck faster.



    For the BM manabase this is what I have:
    4 Verdant Catacombs
    3 Bloodstained Mire
    3 Shocklands (1 of each)
    3 Basics (1 of each)
    5 Fastlands/Grove (4 B, 4 R, 2 G)
    1 flex slot (Dryad Arbor, Kessig Wolf Run, Gemstone Caverns, or another random land you feel like running)


    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
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