I believe the term is "state based effects". That is an L2 and up level judge question so I am not going to assume anything, I think merely because it is not naturally a creature it won't get the counter but I could easily be wrong about that.
The coolest thing that flux allows is that if someone breaks kira's shield and goes to kill her we blink her and she comes back as a 3/3 If we blink mutavault I don't believe it would get a counter tho since when it comes back in and flux checks if its a spirit it is also no longer a creature, so Kira is about the ceiling for sweet plays
Flux definitely has potential, but we are already playing Harbinger which is conditional removal. Flux isn't even removal, it is a blue cloudshift (which already sees 0 play anywhere) or another counterspell at best. Sideboard maybe when we have to worry more about our creatures dying than handling theirs (burn or U/W control for example) and we just side out our snags or dismembers anyway. Having a flux in hand when getting attacked for lethal would be a pretty awkward and terrible feeling.
It also matters on his opponents, if he just chewed through a ton of delver decks while lands facerolled him then he could still make it to top 8. Even with a wonky list like that delver is such an easy match up. When would you ever resolve a Coercive portal anyway?
The danger being they also play Detention Sphere so they can be playing more than just 4 Supreme Verdicts based on your board state. It is very easy to get too greedy and try to push damage out, but it is just another card to worry about besides Verdict. If they don't draw any verdicts it is pretty easy to beat them but if they draw alot of them or manage to flash some back with Jace it can be a very difficult uphill climb
Caverns, Chalice, Cliques, and Vials are all in the $40-50 range and them being 3 or 4 ofs really add up. A few other things may have crept up by a dollar or two but those are the big changes
I would not say spell pierce is better since permission loses steam super quick, I still prefer Negate over Swan Song (i run 3 negate, 2 swan song, and 3 chalice for counters in my SB) but I have lost games from running dispel over swan song and running into sorceries i couldn't hit in my testing. Invasive may end up having some game, but we won't really know until the impact of the set settles. For all we know Zombies with Endless Ranks of the Dead or Grave Pact could be a thing
Swan Song vs Maelstrom pulse killing all your master of waves is great Dispel and Surgery also wouldn't hit artifacts, planeswalkers, enchantments, or sorcery/instant respectively.
Choke, Detention Sphere, Maelstrom Pulse, Kolaghn's Command, Atarka's Command, any aura out of bogles, anything out of storm, Goryo's Vengeance, Anger of the Gods, Damnation or Wrath of God, Chord of Calling, Collected Company, Training Ground or Worship out of Eldrazi, Suppression Field, the list goes on.
No, giving them a bird is not great but with Harbinger, Kira, and Vapor Snag you can deal with it. It is better than relying on narrow cards like Annul, Dispel, or Invasive. Sometimes you just don't have the 2 mana for Negate and even then having a 1 mana negate (in most cases) is still good if you have both in your hand to power through a large swath of spells.
Casting a swan song on a bolt from jund is of course bad idea and will just get you killed. The same is true of negate. Play with the card first against a variety of decks and you will realize how little the bird usually matters for us. All the cards I listed can easily put us in a losing position, id rather give them a bird than lose on the spot and it has worked for me so far. I have yet to lose from said bird and when that day comes I'll address it.
Tron Jund and Scapeshift can make very little use out of a 2/2 bird though, so I'm sticking with Swan Song for now. I just find dispel or invasive too narrow, if the meta shifts back when the eldrazi are gone (whenever that may be) ill re-evaluate but having to deal with Grishoalbrand, Storm, Bogles, Burn, etc...Swan Song has pulled its weight when I cant cast a negate
Engulf being an instant ALSO helps us play around Supreme Verdict, Living End, and the like (which CoB already said but I guess I'm spelling it out a bit more )
I'd still be wary about losing to blood moon...these new set of lands is interesting, but if I am going to start losing to blood moon I'd like to have more than just Path to Exile in the main and some better sideboard cards. The best reason to get u/w is to beat affinity, I need more than just 1 deck
How often do you not hit UU and have nothing in your hand to play or do for that turn? Going CU is not a problem if you have an adept or a spreading seas in your hand. Did you get a vial out on t1 or t2 with that colorless mana? Did you attack with a mutavault into an open board so you effectively drew a shock for that turn. Running 4 mutavaults I rarely if ever have no play on t2 regardless of what colored lands I have, keeping a hand of 4 colorless lands and 3 master of waves is of course bad, so hand keepage will be ignored for this purpose.
Even if you ran 1 mutavault you would not get UU by t2 everygame, that is just how math works. Slight increases or decreases in percentages are just something you lose sleep over. The actual variance it can have is minimal at best. Not having a play t2 is the bigger problem regardless of what mana you have out. If your opponent played a t2 tarmogofy then dismembering or vapor snagging it is still a play on t2. Don't stress so much about the actual mana and focus more on the plays. That would be my advice
I swear it better not be Emrakul -_- give us a REAL ancient horror like Dagon and Cthulhu not boring non-fishy spaghetti monster. The thing in the ice was already a pretty big tell as is the portal in the shipyard.
Spell Pierce are better game 1 than siding them in and there are just less targets for the card during that time. Its almost completely dead against any variant of eldrazi, weak against Podless Pod, weak against Affinity, so on and so forth. With the Jund and Delver style decks getting pushed out of the format we don't have to worry as much about holding up a spell pierce for a thoughtseize and cards like that. If we are boarding in counterspells it shouldn't be permission but hard counters like Negate and Swan Song.
Choke, Detention Sphere, Maelstrom Pulse, Kolaghn's Command, Atarka's Command, any aura out of bogles, anything out of storm, Goryo's Vengeance, Anger of the Gods, Damnation or Wrath of God, Chord of Calling, Collected Company, Training Ground or Worship out of Eldrazi, Suppression Field, the list goes on.
No, giving them a bird is not great but with Harbinger, Kira, and Vapor Snag you can deal with it. It is better than relying on narrow cards like Annul, Dispel, or Invasive. Sometimes you just don't have the 2 mana for Negate and even then having a 1 mana negate (in most cases) is still good if you have both in your hand to power through a large swath of spells.
Casting a swan song on a bolt from jund is of course bad idea and will just get you killed. The same is true of negate. Play with the card first against a variety of decks and you will realize how little the bird usually matters for us. All the cards I listed can easily put us in a losing position, id rather give them a bird than lose on the spot and it has worked for me so far. I have yet to lose from said bird and when that day comes I'll address it.
That isn't Emrakul
Even if you ran 1 mutavault you would not get UU by t2 everygame, that is just how math works. Slight increases or decreases in percentages are just something you lose sleep over. The actual variance it can have is minimal at best. Not having a play t2 is the bigger problem regardless of what mana you have out. If your opponent played a t2 tarmogofy then dismembering or vapor snagging it is still a play on t2. Don't stress so much about the actual mana and focus more on the plays. That would be my advice