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  • posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    This just highlights how awful and useless the FFL "testing" is.


    Or how much difference there is between what Wotc wants out of the format and what the player base wants.


    Wotc wants players to buy packs and boxes, LGS want players to buy singles, most players only want to buy into one deck and ride that baby for years.

    Something has to give...
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Kind of jumping the cycle a bit on claiming prices are down. The prices from MM17 rebounded faster then the previous MM sets (meaning hit bottom and headed back up). Usually takes 6 months to see those high end cards get back to their old pricing. We are 2 months in, maybe a bit more? Lets see what the charts look like at the end of summer to see if its a true drop in prices.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from Wraithpk »
    I've never seen these blue control versions you're talking about, but Tezzeret decks are something completely different. Affinity is the classic aggro version, and that is the deck that is over 9% right now. These other builds you're talking about are not being included in that, and are not a sizeable portion of the meta.


    Because data is being taken from a limited amount of higher level events. Not a true picture of the meta the majority of people play in. Its great if you plan on playing in a PPTQ or GPQ or even traveling to an SCG event, to some extent. Still not a true picture of decks you will and can see in a day of playing.

    Also, dont tell me the Tezz decks I am seeing are something completely different. Its a UB Affinity build shoving 2-3 copies of Tezz in the deck. They play like mid range Affinity.

    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from bocephus »
    My only issue with Affinity being at 10% is there are like 7 different builds of the deck now. 2 are aggro, 2 are tempo/controlish, 2 are mid rangy, and the last one is more like burn then affinity (could be classified as another aggro deck). Saying Affinity is 10% of the meta is a little miss leading.

    Deck archetypes that share ~85%+ of their card base are often grouped together, whether we like it or not. Are these deck variants really so fundamentally different from each other? Or is it just a few sideboard flex slots that can take the Plan B to different places?


    Maybe they are just not showing up in top 8's.

    In the last month or since Kal/Revolt came out with the new tech Metallic Rebuke I have seen mono blue builds that are more controlish running rebuke, negates, spell pierce, and thoughtcasr. Saw this at a local PPTQ, just missed the top 8 of a 70 person event), blue white controlish versions, running mana tithe, rebuke, spell pierce, and dispatch (saw at the same PPTQ was in top 16 know he was in the money), 2 different blue black builds, both mid rangy, one running multiple Tezz's, the other running Disciple of the Vault. Both decks running counter magic main. Then there are the colorless aggro builds which are shown above. The red versions that play more like a burn deck, and the Rx decks that can convert from full aggro to control with side board.

    The differences in the decks is pretty huge. Not only the cards played, but the style they are played.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    My only issue with Affinity being at 10% is there are like 7 different builds of the deck now. 2 are aggro, 2 are tempo/controlish, 2 are mid rangy, and the last one is more like burn then affinity (could be classified as another aggro deck). Saying Affinity is 10% of the meta is a little miss leading.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on What's Wrong With Today's Magic?
    Quote from Colt47 »
    Quote from bocephus »
    Quote from Colt47 »
    Quote from "bocephus »


    Nope, the player created format was Overextended which was a very different format then Modern. Some liked Overextended more, others didnt. I was not a fan of Overextended. Different cut off for sets. Much higher power level, much closer to Legacy lite then Modern is, something I dont believe Modern should be.


    I'm sort of wondering if that is going to be Frontiers fate as well. I've got a feeling wizards would want to annex old baggage completely if they started a new format themselves, which would probably include all the fetchlands and such. The only issue is I can't see them doing that as they would have to effectively kill modern completely. I really don't think they are even capable of doing that at this point.


    I believe it was stated if Wotc made another format it wouldnt have any fetches.

    If I were going to run an LGS it would probably be a component of a mainstream business like a Bistro or diner. Combo Starbucks or Panera with rooms in the back dedicated for card game tournaments, a trades table, and various products needed to handle the games like sleeves instead of going whole hog into tabletop gaming and other details. People could come buy a coffee, lunch, dinner, whatever, then go in back and play in the facilities, or just stop by and stick around to surf the web or something.


    So you want to regress back to the late 90s. Players fighting for space to play among customers not there for Magic. It was terrible back then, it would be terrible now too. Its bad enough Magic players have to fight for space with Pokemon and Yugiho. Cant imagine having to deal with non gamers on top of that.


    Well, considering there is a place that is basically a retro arcade that caters events right in my own area, I think the business idea is sound. Unfortunately, as the owner of said establishment told me one time during the Christmas event I attended there it was a combination of luck and timing that made the place possible. (Look up Level 257, it's a really cool place to go visit if you want to experience those old arcade cabinets again... and drink booze and have a slice of pizza). Grin

    We're living in a time where an LGS has to be more than just an LGS to really stick unless it's a major place like Card Kingdom. Small LGS basically are struggling to even stay alive.


    Maybe around you those small LGS are having issues, but around me they are thriving. We have added like 6 more LGS in the last 6 months.

    I remember the old days of the comic/sports card/D&D/TCG shops, and it was a mess. Standing at the counter playing for FNM because the sports card crowd is having an auction or the war hammer crowd has all the tables pushed together. I never want to revisit those days.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on What's Wrong With Today's Magic?
    Quote from Cainsson »
    Quote from bocephus »
    I disagree that this set up caters to the bottom feeders. If it did we wouldnt be seeing more and more LGS open...
    Just to close a couple years afterwards.

    That's the song and dance of this decade. LGS shows up, it doesn't immediately make as much money as they thought they would, they pump the prices in desperation and end up closing as their few regulars leave.

    LGS can't survive on singles now that any rat kid with a credit card can sell singles on ebay for lower. There's been 47 LGS in my city since I starded playing during Invasion block. There's 19 now. 2 of them have been around since I starded playing and one more is celebrating their 10 years anniversary this september.
    These stores have a couple things in common:
    All of them have singles avaliable but none hold more than a couple playsets of money for long.
    All of them sell online and have an in-town delivery service.
    All of them sell Pokemon, RPG rulebooks, minis and board games. None sell YGO! or "gone by next week" anime TCGs.
    All of them have extremelly competitive buylists for store credit.
    All of them sell snacks.

    At many of the other stores you won't see people staying for a single second more than FNM lasts, and many don't even have people show up to sit and play unless it's an RPTQ or pre-release. At these three stores you see people parked there all day long playing, having fun, and spending a ridiculous ammount of cash on boosters, accessories and food.

    Good LGS will last even if singles prices collapse. The rest? Those were gonna close anyway.




    I guess time will tell.

    We have had an explosion of LGS as of late, the last 12-18 months. All have solid player attendance. In the past 5 years all we have seen is LGS open, I think one closed in that time, but its because the owner got caught doing some things he wasnt suppose to be and Wotc took his sanctioning.

    Of the things you mention

    These stores have a couple things in common:
    All of them have singles avaliable but none hold more than a couple playsets of money for long.
    All of them sell online and have an in-town delivery service.
    All of them sell Pokemon, RPG rulebooks, minis and board games. None sell YGO! or "gone by next week" anime TCGs.
    All of them have extremelly competitive buylists for store credit.
    All of them sell snacks.


    All LGS support all card games in my area.

    The minis market just isnt here. There was one LGS that had them on the shelves for a few months, but never sold one.

    I would also like to know what you mean by competitive buy lists. All the stores around here are 50% of cards TCG mid for store credit. Some stores wont buy for cash at all, but if they do, its usually 25-30% of TCG mid. With rates like that, they are more or less forcing players to compete against them on line.

    Singles, sealed product, snacks and Magic supplies are what keep each and every LGS in my area going. If the Magic secondary collapsed, so would almost all the LGS. It would be who has the most money to ride it out to who stayed open.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on What's Wrong With Today's Magic?
    Quote from Colt47 »
    Quote from "bocephus »


    Nope, the player created format was Overextended which was a very different format then Modern. Some liked Overextended more, others didnt. I was not a fan of Overextended. Different cut off for sets. Much higher power level, much closer to Legacy lite then Modern is, something I dont believe Modern should be.


    I'm sort of wondering if that is going to be Frontiers fate as well. I've got a feeling wizards would want to annex old baggage completely if they started a new format themselves, which would probably include all the fetchlands and such. The only issue is I can't see them doing that as they would have to effectively kill modern completely. I really don't think they are even capable of doing that at this point.


    I believe it was stated if Wotc made another format it wouldnt have any fetches.

    If I were going to run an LGS it would probably be a component of a mainstream business like a Bistro or diner. Combo Starbucks or Panera with rooms in the back dedicated for card game tournaments, a trades table, and various products needed to handle the games like sleeves instead of going whole hog into tabletop gaming and other details. People could come buy a coffee, lunch, dinner, whatever, then go in back and play in the facilities, or just stop by and stick around to surf the web or something.


    So you want to regress back to the late 90s. Players fighting for space to play among customers not there for Magic. It was terrible back then, it would be terrible now too. Its bad enough Magic players have to fight for space with Pokemon and Yugiho. Cant imagine having to deal with non gamers on top of that.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on What's Wrong With Today's Magic?
    Quote from osieorb18 »
    The thing about stereotypes is that while they have some foundation in truth, they can also paint a not entirely accurate picture. You think enfranchised Legacy and Vintage players aren't actively buying cards from new sets? They'll buy boxes and singles, maybe not to the degree of a Standard player, but still to a comparable degree to a Modern player. I think I can fairly say that the average Vintage/Legacy player plays Limited now and again. Occasionally, you will see enfranchised Legacy and Vintage players who don't buy product for personal finance reasons (They had enough money to get into the format, but don't have the cash to play continuously.) On a tangential point, that is where a conundrum comes up. Most people don't have the money to maintain playing a format like Standard or Modern, or to get into Vintage or Legacy. If Modern doesn't want to price out both new players and a section of enfranchised players, lowering either maintenance cost or barrier to entry is the way to go, and barrier to entry is the one of those two which is better for Wizards to lower.


    Okay, fair enough. I will say they are not buying product in an amount that will keep the game in business. Unlike Standard and limited do that keep the game continuing.

    Lowering the money barrier, means lowering the price of cards, which will hurt LGS and players lose places to play. Yes some LGS will survive, but to what extent? Will the likes of SCG and TCG have the ability to continue supporting the game at the levels they have been for years now? Probably not.

    Its a catch 22 situation. I think Wotc has been doing a good job of slowly lowering prices of staples in Modern through the printing of Masters sets along with other supplemental products. Maybe not fast enough for some, but they are working to appease both the LGS and the player base. 2 groups with in the game that actually need very different things from the game, almost opposite things that fight against each other.

    Quote from Colt47 »
    Also I think modern was actually started by players at least a year and a half prior to its introduction to the pro-tour. So wizards didn't create modern.


    Nope, the player created format was Overextended which was a very different format then Modern. Some liked Overextended more, others didnt. I was not a fan of Overextended. Different cut off for sets. Much higher power level, much closer to Legacy lite then Modern is, something I dont believe Modern should be.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on What's Wrong With Today's Magic?
    Quote from Cainsson »
    Print more.


    They use to and it didnt work for Wotc, the LGS or the player base. Some of the high print run sets are some of the lowest selling sets (Timespiral and Lorwyn blocks).

    I disagree that this set up caters to the bottom feeders. If it did we wouldnt be seeing more and more LGS open.

    Selling sealed product is not where the money is for the LGS. Also no matter what the LGS is selling the product for, they are still making money.

    Quote from osieorb »
    Umm... what? The point was to replace Extended... As for heavily invested players, the heavily invested players before Modern WERE the Legacy/Vintage players. And most of those players still play Legacy/Vintage. The upkeep costs on Legacy and Vintage are significantly less than Modern or Standard. Decks in Modern can go from Tier 1 to below Tier 2 in a comparable amount of time to Standard; many enfranchised players have better ways to spend their money than on that. That's why there's a low overlap between Legacy/Vintage players and Standard players.


    This is why Wotc doesnt like Legacy and Vintage. The players rarely buy newer cards. If Wotc had to rely on those older format players to keep in business, the game would have died a long time ago.

    Quote from thecasualoblivion »
    Modern wasn't intended to be an accessible alternative to Standard, but it happened anyway. I think the popularity of Modern is hurting Standard, in combination of course with how lackluster Standard has been lately. I also think that WotC isn't supporting Modern with card printings enough, given its popularity and the singles market is proportionately distorted.


    Standard can not be high level, an amazing format every season. It never has and never can be. If it was the power level of Standard would be higher then any other format there is.

    How many Masters set do you think they need to print before Wotc is supporting Modern? They support Modern just fine for those playing the format.

    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    On using MTGO data: It seems MTGO is littered with weird and random brews that get wins because of being weird and random. Like I just played against UW deck that tries to win on the back of life gain lands and Mulldrifters. Then played against some Bant Glittering Wish deck that I still don't really know what it does other than cast Search for Tomorrow, Spreading Seas, and Auriok Champion, while Wishing for Dragonlord Dromoka and Teferi's Moat, of all things. It's definitely not as prevalent as you would see in the Leagues (and until I can mirror my paper decks online without breaking the bank I stick to the 2-man queues), but lots of people are playing with weird decks, and even Leagues are relatively small events (akin to a large 5-round FNM). It creates pockets of data that can be swayed wildly by variance, matchups, and repetitious grinders. It seems lots of people are trying to play "gotcha" decks and specifically plan to play decks people don't have sideboard plans for. If nothing else, it makes for interesting games in an interesting format, but not exactly helpful for judging and classifying decks.


    I know some dont want to hear it or even believe it, but this is exactly what the game of Magic use to be. An established pecking order of decks, and players brewing to beat that pecking order, keeping the pecking order always in a state of change. Now the player base has gotten lazy and only plays proven decks and sits at events playing mirror matches complaining about this or that. That is why I dont believe in the Tier system. Never have. Its nice to know what you may see, and what is the flavor of the week so you can tweak your deck to be competitive, but nothing more, nothing less then that.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on What's Wrong With Today's Magic?
    As I have said before, Wotc just came off something like 4-6 years of record breaking sales. Every time something happens someone doesnt like they say Hasbro is forcing this or Wotc doesnt know what its doing. The market as a whole ebbs and flows. There are going to be highs and lows. But in the end they are a business. A business that has been in business for over 20 years.

    We get it you dont like their way of doing things. You think they can do better. But they are going to do as they see fit.

    I dont understand how you can honestly think if Wotc put out a Masters set for $99 MSRP a box, and LGS pumping up the price to the $200 mark or more depending on what is in the set is going to solve anything or could make them more money in the long run. Even if they opened up Masters sets to the big box stores, the big box stores will pump up the price. I have seen it with boxes of Standard set. LGS selling them for $100 a box and the big box stores selling for $150 or more. There is nothing Wotc can do to stop such actions either. Wotc depends on the LGS to not only sell their product, but give the players some place to play. If Wotc says if you dont sell sealed product for 'X' amount we wont supply you any more, there are other means to get sealed product, and if Wotc/DCI wants to take away sanctioning. Wotc just lost a place for players to play.

    Opening the printing presses and flooding the market is going to kill the secondary, in turn hurting the LGS, in turn making less places for players to play.

    The secondary market is the key. They need a secondary market that can keep the big LGS open as well as the smaller local ones open also.

    LGS make nothing off running events. They make money off players needing cards for events and buying them. They make money off of the sale of sleeves and dice. Take away the main source of income for LGS and its going to hurt the game long term.

    I am not saying Hasbro or Wotc hasnt made mistakes in the past 20 some years. But I trust them a hell of a lot more to run the company and keep the profits flowing then the player base.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on What's Wrong With Today's Magic?
    @draftguy, I have never said play your Standard deck, but I can see someone saying it. Its all good.

    As for $99 MSRP Masters boxes, The latest Masters set was $200 a box and most places were sold out with in 48-72 hours after it was released. Why would any business sell for less when they KNOW they can sell for more? If Wotc made them $99 MSRP, everyone would jack up the price on their own to what people would pay. People keep making Wotc out to be the bad guy when they are a business. They are trying to make money.

    As for SCG talking they would rather sell volume over high dollar cards. They are big enough they can work like that. They probably move tens of thousands of cards a week(equating to thousands of dollars). I know small store owners that move $3000+ a week and thats working by themselves and only 2-4 hours a day on line. Granted the start up cost was a bit. Most stores would rather sell 5-10 cards and have rent and bills paid for, for the month and every thing else sold is gravy for the month.

    Most LGS and on line store owners hate reprints because they instantly hurt their inventory numbers.

    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on What's Wrong With Today's Magic?
    Quote from draftguy2 »
    However when modern first started the card price were lower, the decks were less refined ( ie not as good so more room for unoptmised decks to wiggle out wins). Look at Legacy and Vintage, if a card is not reprinted and is part of a GOOD format winning deck it will consistently go up as more and more people get that deck, As the format grows and people have said decks it becomes harder and harder for people running the budget options to win. The best thing Wizards could do to help modern would be print precons of each T1 deck at $20 each in large print runs. Make access not a problem and allow the format to grow and expand. Not expensive booster stupidity just simple well build precons from top level decks at low price levels. This all depends on what you want for the format, however I would much rather have a game where lots and LOTS of people can get in and play the best decks to give diversity and a fun play environment.


    Access to the format has never been a problem, cheap people have been the problem. You could always get what ever card you needed or wanted thru numerous online stores or Ebay.

    Yeah those prices were so much cheaper, shocks at $20+ a pop, Path a double digit uncommon, Thoughtseize $70+, IOK a double digit uncommon.. anything played was elevated, yes some cards have been helped by reprints, but that wasnt my point. Someone said Modern players were elitists because we tall new players to play cheaper decks like Burn and such to build up store credit to buy the pieces of the more expensive decks they wish to play. It the same thing thats been going on for quite some time. I get tired of listening to these new players demand they should be allowed to jump in where they wish and play what ever they want. No format has ever been like that. Not Vintage, not Legacy, not Standard, not Extended, Not EDH, but for some reason people wanting to play Modern feel they are entitled to something the rest had to work for.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from jwf239 »
    I'm just going to quote a Ktkenshinx post from a few pages back because I think it accurately addresses the concerns you are bringing up and I think it bears repeating. I don't like just verbatim quoting but he does a good enough job I don't feel any need to expand, rather just bring it back to light.

    I'm not sure about the new system's specifics, but if the site uses an established, replicable, and transparent scoring/grading system, then tiers are fine. In my opinion, tiering should be as objective as possible and also use the best statistical methods available given the data. If this can happen, the subjective "established" and "proven" division should not return; Modern did this years ago when I first got here and we moved away from it.

    On the other hand, if the system doesn't make sense or doesn't meet those above benchmarks, then tiering becomes much less helpful. I am not as familiar with current format data as I was with it in the past, but I sincerely doubt there are truly this many Tier 1 decks. The most I ever saw when doing updates was maybe 8-9 (estimate; don't quote me). With so many Tier 1 decks, I suspect it's because the new system uses a very broad definition of Tier 1 that might not be as helpful as people think it is. Personally, I prefer narrower definitions that establish tiers with more confidence. No system is perfect without the full dataset, but I'd be cautious about a system that had so many Tier 1 decks; it's unlikely all Tier 1 decks are truly as viable as each other if the tiering is so wide.


    I am just going to say I didnt agree with the old system any more then I agree with the new system. Its a flawed system with incomplete data.

    By defining the data, only using 'X' amount of events, and only using percentages of tops (agreed cut off). Its a much easier, and clearer picture of the performance of the decks in question.

    Until we can get information such as how many of each deck type was entered to how many topped from all events a tier system is going to be skewed.

    I would also say there are more T1 decks then is being shown. Simply because the events the data is being taken from is some of the highest level we have for the game. So it would mean there is better pilots, hence better results with less optimal decks. We all know Modern is a format of comfort. Play the deck you feel more comfortable playing.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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