Well, duh. Have you looked back over his Day One play yet?
I did a while back. I should give it another look, but the takeaway was a pretty strong aversion to Brin. He showed up a ways into the game, and then went after Brin for what he claimed was baseless posting - I think Brin called out Niv for not posting content, and AE went after Brin for the same thing. (IRC, there was a great post in there where someone had called AE out for lurking, and his defense was that he was late to the game. He said something like, 'If I show up, attack Brin, and then just disappear after that, then I'd be a hypocrite." Funny how that played out.)
This was most of D1. I think he tangled a little with Kpaca then as well, and possibly...Yanni? What stuck out in my mind from the re-read was that other than Brin, he kind of just counter-attacked anyone who joined his wagon. Once his wagon came apart and Dreys' wagon picked up, he quieted way down. After Night 1, Brin cleared him, and he went into lurk mode until just recently.
Of course. We're in his face. That's usually what happens when someone is being examined closely. If we want to know what he thinks about other matters, we have to give him enough space to provide.
...and then if he doesn't provide, he's given us better reason to believe he's actively hiding.
This seems like the only reason he pipes up at all in this game. He did this day one, and then backed way off as soon as things died down. Not a lot of scum-hunting. Today, he's doing a similar thing with Kpaca.
Hearts for you on this. What do you think of his behavioral analysis, btw?
In general? I think Wessel has been exhibiting honest reads up until today. I think in the heat of things, he's decided to analyze the game to try to mechanically put together pieces to hit on scum, instead of analyzing player interactions like he was earlier on. (Even now, he seems to clear AE based on a read of Brin and logic that won't let them both be scum, instead of what AE is actually saying and doing. Although to be fair, he does note AE's exchanges with Brin as being pertinent, so there's that.)
It doesn't read to me as scum; it feels like over-eager town trying to ride momentum a little too hard.
Quote from Xyre »
DJ, remind me, have you claimed yet?
I claimed my double voter status today. It's a seasonal thing; I'm the Elemental Of The Solstice. I had noted that I sent a message to Zindabad at the beginning of the day to clarify something; it was a question on flavor based on what happened with iLord, and it turns out that he and I had our flavor names switched inadvertently. (I should be Equinox, and he should have been Solstice.)
unvote unvote vote AE vote AE
My vote is still to see him vigged, but that seems like it may not happen no matter what the majority says.
@Alpha:
You're clear on who you *don't* want to shoot, but you're still hanging the question out to us, and we're kind of waiting on you to move things forward here at least in part.
I'd like to see you discuss what you're feeling here, instead of waiting for us to give you a name that you may or may not target to begin with. Who do *you* suspect at this point?
Why haven't you voted? Who's your choice on the vig?
It's not the barning I have an issue with, it's the fact that you seem to be happy to agree and fall in step with each person who posts any substantial content.
There's a pattern to IB's posting over the past few pages that is not confidence-inspiring.
Quote from infectiousbaloth »
kpain: Can you answer this question: did you get a normal result that would tell you for sure that the person you intended to target is actually the person you did target?
Two posts later...
Quote from infectiousbaloth »
Quote from Pale Mage »
Kpaca should not answer this nor any other questions pertaining to last Night until AE has answered my questions regarding his role and actions.
I agree with your assessment.
Pretty quick step into line with Pale Mage, for someone who asked for the result himself.
Quote from infectiousbaloth »
I fully endorse this post; I couldn't have said it better myself.
Do a majority of players support vigging AE?
That's a barn of me.
Quote from infectiousbaloth »
Well said, Wessel. Thank you for giving us some insight. This game is much too long for comprehensive re-reads (thank you, Iso) so although I believe AE and/or Brin are scum, I'll go back and look at PM and kpaca.
That's another quick back-burner in favor of someone else's strong post.
Quote from infectiousbaloth »
Frankly, I'm not really sure what to contribute here. I remain unconvinced about AE and nothing about Pale Mage or kpaca makes me believe that they are scum. For me, Brin and AE's play makes me think that at least one of them is scum, and when it comes down to it, I'd end up having to PoE the last scum unless something develops.
Clearly, due to the deadline, we're going to have to act somewhat soon. This game really does not need to stagnate.
The AE/Brin topic stays open, though, so IB comes back around. What happened to the confidence on the AE read?
Quote from infectiousbaloth »
Quote from Kpaca »
If AE is scum, then Brin is likely scum as he insists that zindabad says his results can't possibly be paranoia.
I thought this was everyones assessment.
I agree with this assessment. However, do you believe the converse holds true? If Brin is scum then AE is scum? Or if AE is town, Brin is town?
The assessment that both are scum? What happened to not being convinced on AE a few posts back? And if you're agreeing with Kpaca's assessment, why are you then trying to pry on it further? Why not get voting and put some pressure on your suspects?
Quote from infectiousbaloth »
Understood. Consider me swayed.
This is the krux of the issue. LOTS of falling into line with others in a hurry. Feels like excessive shooting from the hip in order to look like you're staying current with things without having to actually commit to anything. Throughout all of this, not one vote or definitive statement on who to vig.
vote Infectious Baloth vote Infectious Baloth
As well, I still agree with shooting AE (vigvote AE) for the reasons I've stated. It makes way more sense to try to prove or disprove the cop then the lurker here.
Even if he's town we should vig him? Dislike. AE is more active now.
I'm not convinced he is town. If I knew for sure, I'd be suggesting a different course of action.
I will say that while his activity is up, it took things turning on him to get him to add more than an occasional "Sorry...hate my role/hard time getting into the game/will try harder" followed by another prolonged absence and no content.
Even now, nearly all of what he's involved in is defending himself or this dance with Kpaca.
@Wessel:
To get back to the AE/Brin/Kpaca thing, I think the issue I see with your logic is that half of your reads seem to come from behavioral analysis, and half seem to be nothing but theorycrafting. You've got Pale Mage as playing it safe and barning others without sticking his neck out, but then Kpaca is scum simply because he could be running a gambit, and AE is not scum because Brin likely is in your book.
What do you think of Kpaca's actual play? What about AE's play?
It's quite possible kpaca sacrificed Void to get town points. He saw DRey was coaching ZasZ. Pale Mage is playing safe, asking good questions but never risking his body by taking a stance different from the crowd.
WoD could be SK - would this game include an multi-season unlimited vig, I wonder?
I'm not knocking the theory here, since Kpaca has a history of crazy gambits from my personal experience with him. I guess I'm just trying to understand how you got to that conclusion.
IIRC, there was a point made (I might have even been the one making it...it's been a long game) that scum bussing each-other that early on with the early multiple hits to their team would be suicide in a game of this size. What makes you think differently?
I'm also wondering on why you don't think AE could be scum. I'm seeing that you don't think he *and* Brin could both be scum as a primary reason. Is there a reason for that stance? Sorry if it has been said and I missed it.
Yes. I considered you. For going after a cop cleared player thats been lurking. Just seemed opportunistic to either put doubt on the cop or get rid of a cleared townie. I did not consider any others because of my lack of involvment. I was curious as to what would happen in targeting kpaca. One more night and I become a role cop on kpaca. Which is why he wants me vigd.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again; I simply don't see you as being "cleared". A claimed cop made a claimed reveal on you. That's it. No real evidence.
Hate that you're happily admitting to lurking and misrepresenting another player just because you didn't like his attitude. For someone who self-admittedly isn't paying attention to the game, you've locked in pretty hard on your target. Even if Brin's result is legit, you're doing a great job of playing an anti-town role nonetheless.
[2] Mainly because of this post. He follows others in their wish to day-vig AE, while also hedging his bets on Brin. Why not prefer a vig or lynch of Brinatoo, instead opting for the less logical AE? (Feel free to answer this, DJC)
At the time of that post, there was nothing to suggest to me that AE was anything more than lurking through the game behind Brin's clearing. Brin, however, made the clearing claim, and is actually playing the game and contributing.
As I said, we shoot Brin, and we potentially shoot a cop and a contributor. He flips town, and we can potentially clear a lurker who contributes nothing. Shoot AE, and we can clear Brin completely or nail a liar to the wall.
Right now, I don't want to do either until this Kpaca thing plays out.
Where's the pressure on Brin? You're talking about shooting him to discover if he's lying or not. That's not pressure, that's making the decision up front and acting on it.
We learn his alignment and lose a player who actually contributes and may be a cop, and are stuck with a player who isn't bothering to contribute at all and is suspected of being a godfather...at minimum, another unknown, unproven alignment.
I'd personally like to clear Brin and still have him around to help.
For the record, I'm a double-voter in Autumn. I want to get this out front so there are no surprises. Related to this, I'm also waiting on a reply from Zindabad to clear up a few things. I'll explain as I can.
Zinda is a bastard if he flat out lies about me being guaranteed sane results. Aside, the only explanation is AE is a godfather of some sort and to make the odds of that random situation happening (godfather receives random cop) is he is a godfather LIGHTNING ROD.
If he's a lightning rod, how is he still alive?
Brin, I have a small problem with the overt self-righteousness of this post, mostly because your role isn't confirmed AFAIK, so you could just as easily be lying about having results. Correct me if I'm wrong here.
For that reason, I support shooting AE immediately as well. He hasn't really tried to play the game (repeatedly self-admittedly at that), and the result will help confirm Brin one way or the other.
There's nothing in iLord's early game that convinces me he's worth the lynch here. I see his tone changed a bit later in the game once he came under fire, which is a null tell. I see several people pointing to several different reasons, none of which seem to match up to each other. I see dubius-at-best evidence that does nothing other than paint him combatitive. If that was enough to get a lynch going, Iso and Arti should both be long gone by now.
I'm uncomfortable with his inability to explain what his ability does, but that's about it, and that's not enough to lynch him.
I'm also pretty sure that some of you on this wagon were busy telling me off when I tried to point out the discrepancy in Void's flavor versus his claim when that thing went down. Funny how things change like that...
AE surfaces. Hooray! This still isn't the AE that I remember, but if memory serves, AE was very well spoken and engaged in the game we shared because things were moving and he was in the middle of it all.
If I was declared "cleared" and totally left alone in this game, I'd probably fade out too.
In any case, re-reading AE doesn't seem to indicate a thing one way of the other, so I'm inclined to look elsewhere too.
@Alpha:
What was the issue with the iLord post you quoted? I guess I'm not following you there. What's the post number for that?
@DJC: Why would I *want* to be shot? It doesn't prove anything until I die, generates more WIFOM and leaves us down a town player. Thank you for clarifying your statements, by the way.
If you look back at the last few pages before you replaced in, Iso was busy actively trying to get shot by WoD, who was not going to do it as a result. Iso specifically did NOT want to be lynched at the same time.
Is there anything in your new set of abilities that would suggest why this was happening? That would certainly clear up a few things in my mind.
Are you asking why I think a Neutral wouldn't just randomly be selected from a list of potential roles?
No...you said there would be information in the flavor PM that would give away the neutral role if it were stolen in the way IB did and make it impossible to achieve the neutral win condition.
The game is supposed to be set up to be flavor-independant, so this should not be the case and should not clear anyone.
Why are you suggesting there would be neutral-specific flavor in a PM given what we were told for the setup?
I still prefer AE, though. (And no, AE...I don't think you're town.)
WoD, did I miss an interaction with Alpha? Why is he suddenly a good vig target in your opinion?
That seems like a terrible idea to me.
--->DJ
I did a while back. I should give it another look, but the takeaway was a pretty strong aversion to Brin. He showed up a ways into the game, and then went after Brin for what he claimed was baseless posting - I think Brin called out Niv for not posting content, and AE went after Brin for the same thing. (IRC, there was a great post in there where someone had called AE out for lurking, and his defense was that he was late to the game. He said something like, 'If I show up, attack Brin, and then just disappear after that, then I'd be a hypocrite." Funny how that played out.)
This was most of D1. I think he tangled a little with Kpaca then as well, and possibly...Yanni? What stuck out in my mind from the re-read was that other than Brin, he kind of just counter-attacked anyone who joined his wagon. Once his wagon came apart and Dreys' wagon picked up, he quieted way down. After Night 1, Brin cleared him, and he went into lurk mode until just recently.
This seems like the only reason he pipes up at all in this game. He did this day one, and then backed way off as soon as things died down. Not a lot of scum-hunting. Today, he's doing a similar thing with Kpaca.
In general? I think Wessel has been exhibiting honest reads up until today. I think in the heat of things, he's decided to analyze the game to try to mechanically put together pieces to hit on scum, instead of analyzing player interactions like he was earlier on. (Even now, he seems to clear AE based on a read of Brin and logic that won't let them both be scum, instead of what AE is actually saying and doing. Although to be fair, he does note AE's exchanges with Brin as being pertinent, so there's that.)
It doesn't read to me as scum; it feels like over-eager town trying to ride momentum a little too hard.
I claimed my double voter status today. It's a seasonal thing; I'm the Elemental Of The Solstice. I had noted that I sent a message to Zindabad at the beginning of the day to clarify something; it was a question on flavor based on what happened with iLord, and it turns out that he and I had our flavor names switched inadvertently. (I should be Equinox, and he should have been Solstice.)
unvote
unvote
vote AE
vote AE
My vote is still to see him vigged, but that seems like it may not happen no matter what the majority says.
@Alpha:
You're clear on who you *don't* want to shoot, but you're still hanging the question out to us, and we're kind of waiting on you to move things forward here at least in part.
I'd like to see you discuss what you're feeling here, instead of waiting for us to give you a name that you may or may not target to begin with. Who do *you* suspect at this point?
--->DJ
It's not the barning I have an issue with, it's the fact that you seem to be happy to agree and fall in step with each person who posts any substantial content.
--->DJ
Two posts later...
Pretty quick step into line with Pale Mage, for someone who asked for the result himself.
That's a barn of me.
That's another quick back-burner in favor of someone else's strong post.
The AE/Brin topic stays open, though, so IB comes back around. What happened to the confidence on the AE read?
The assessment that both are scum? What happened to not being convinced on AE a few posts back? And if you're agreeing with Kpaca's assessment, why are you then trying to pry on it further? Why not get voting and put some pressure on your suspects?
This is the krux of the issue. LOTS of falling into line with others in a hurry. Feels like excessive shooting from the hip in order to look like you're staying current with things without having to actually commit to anything. Throughout all of this, not one vote or definitive statement on who to vig.
vote Infectious Baloth
vote Infectious Baloth
As well, I still agree with shooting AE (vigvote AE) for the reasons I've stated. It makes way more sense to try to prove or disprove the cop then the lurker here.
--->DJ
I'm not convinced he is town. If I knew for sure, I'd be suggesting a different course of action.
I will say that while his activity is up, it took things turning on him to get him to add more than an occasional "Sorry...hate my role/hard time getting into the game/will try harder" followed by another prolonged absence and no content.
Even now, nearly all of what he's involved in is defending himself or this dance with Kpaca.
@Wessel:
To get back to the AE/Brin/Kpaca thing, I think the issue I see with your logic is that half of your reads seem to come from behavioral analysis, and half seem to be nothing but theorycrafting. You've got Pale Mage as playing it safe and barning others without sticking his neck out, but then Kpaca is scum simply because he could be running a gambit, and AE is not scum because Brin likely is in your book.
What do you think of Kpaca's actual play? What about AE's play?
--->DJ
I'm not knocking the theory here, since Kpaca has a history of crazy gambits from my personal experience with him. I guess I'm just trying to understand how you got to that conclusion.
IIRC, there was a point made (I might have even been the one making it...it's been a long game) that scum bussing each-other that early on with the early multiple hits to their team would be suicide in a game of this size. What makes you think differently?
I'm also wondering on why you don't think AE could be scum. I'm seeing that you don't think he *and* Brin could both be scum as a primary reason. Is there a reason for that stance? Sorry if it has been said and I missed it.
--->DJ
I've said it before, and I'll say it again; I simply don't see you as being "cleared". A claimed cop made a claimed reveal on you. That's it. No real evidence.
Hate that you're happily admitting to lurking and misrepresenting another player just because you didn't like his attitude. For someone who self-admittedly isn't paying attention to the game, you've locked in pretty hard on your target. Even if Brin's result is legit, you're doing a great job of playing an anti-town role nonetheless.
Vig AE.
--->DJ
At the time of that post, there was nothing to suggest to me that AE was anything more than lurking through the game behind Brin's clearing. Brin, however, made the clearing claim, and is actually playing the game and contributing.
As I said, we shoot Brin, and we potentially shoot a cop and a contributor. He flips town, and we can potentially clear a lurker who contributes nothing. Shoot AE, and we can clear Brin completely or nail a liar to the wall.
Right now, I don't want to do either until this Kpaca thing plays out.
--->DJ
We learn his alignment and lose a player who actually contributes and may be a cop, and are stuck with a player who isn't bothering to contribute at all and is suspected of being a godfather...at minimum, another unknown, unproven alignment.
I'd personally like to clear Brin and still have him around to help.
--->DJ
If he's a lightning rod, how is he still alive?
Brin, I have a small problem with the overt self-righteousness of this post, mostly because your role isn't confirmed AFAIK, so you could just as easily be lying about having results. Correct me if I'm wrong here.
For that reason, I support shooting AE immediately as well. He hasn't really tried to play the game (repeatedly self-admittedly at that), and the result will help confirm Brin one way or the other.
--->DJ
I'm uncomfortable with his inability to explain what his ability does, but that's about it, and that's not enough to lynch him.
I'm also pretty sure that some of you on this wagon were busy telling me off when I tried to point out the discrepancy in Void's flavor versus his claim when that thing went down. Funny how things change like that...
--->DJ
If I was declared "cleared" and totally left alone in this game, I'd probably fade out too.
In any case, re-reading AE doesn't seem to indicate a thing one way of the other, so I'm inclined to look elsewhere too.
@Alpha:
What was the issue with the iLord post you quoted? I guess I'm not following you there. What's the post number for that?
--->DJ
Since IB has confirmed that your abilities weren't driving your attempt to be shot, sure. Please answer.
--->DJ
If you look back at the last few pages before you replaced in, Iso was busy actively trying to get shot by WoD, who was not going to do it as a result. Iso specifically did NOT want to be lynched at the same time.
Is there anything in your new set of abilities that would suggest why this was happening? That would certainly clear up a few things in my mind.
--->DJ
No...you said there would be information in the flavor PM that would give away the neutral role if it were stolen in the way IB did and make it impossible to achieve the neutral win condition.
The game is supposed to be set up to be flavor-independant, so this should not be the case and should not clear anyone.
Why are you suggesting there would be neutral-specific flavor in a PM given what we were told for the setup?
--->DJ