UW - Skies
UB - Control
UR - Spells Matter
UG - Ramp
GW - Tokens/Anthems
GR - Big Aggro
GB - Midrange "Rock" Grind
BR - Aggro w/ premium removal
BW - "1 Drop" Aggro (Similar to M25 draft if anyone played that)
WR - Aggro w/ burn
All the colors can support other decks though, so if your GW tokens deck doesn't come together and you don't get the anthems you can still pivot to a decent GW aggro/midrange deck with bigger creatures and ramp or you could make a BR grindy deck for example with sweepers/removal and higher cmc threats. Once you get into 3 colors there's a lot more combinations where midrange or control make sense.
Streamer NumotTheNummy has been playing this deck recently, I believe he had three 4-1 finishes in a row today so if you want to see the deck in action you can check his VODs. Starts around 1:52. https://www.twitch.tv/videos/324658070
I feel like this is a ur deck splashing white for settle, teferi and either justice strike or seal away. Does that sound accurate?
If so I guess question would be are those cards effectively plugging holes of straight ur to make it worth the shakier mana base? And how shaky is the mana (my guess is its still pretty good with shocks and buddy lands so fairly low opportunity cost)
I played a straight UR deck at the beginning of the format and once it started to settle into a defined meta I switched to Jeskai and went more controlling and haven't looked back. Yes that is pretty much what is happening. I imagine if you looked at relevant creatures Doom Blade killed when it was in Standard and relevant creatures Justice Strike kills in this standard that Justice Strike would come out ahead. Seal Away isn't doing it for me for reasons that should be obvious when comparing it to Justice Strike. Settle is great but I run them SB and Nova main. The 3 damage from Clarion is much more relevant than the instant speed of Cannonade now that the format is what it is and on rare occasions the lifelink might save you. White also gives you a few better SB options, including ways to deal with resolved enchantments. The mana isn't much worse than straight UR honestly. I've had a few games where I played 5 taplands in a row or couldn't hit a colored mana when I really needed it, but same with UR and that's just variance most of the time, it's fine. The thing about Teferi is he's not replacing Ral they are complementing each other. Having two PW on the field is so much better than having just one which is why I run a 3/2 split instead of 4/1. Tocatli Honor Guard is promising vs. GB which is not a great matchup for UR, at least in my experience but there are many lists out there and I can't comment on them all. SB Lyra is another great reason to run white obviously.
What is it with people including a card withDOUBLE TRIPLE color requirements in 22-land lists? Niv-Mizzet may very well be an "untap with this and win" card but not in a deck running only EIGHT UR producing sources. And the people suggesting putting that thing in a Jeskai list...we don't have Reflecting Pool and filter lands available in Standard, Niv-Mizzet in a 3-color deck? You'd need the infamous Lorwyn/Shadowmoor manabases that enabled 5-color decks packed with color-intensive cards.
The list works with 22 lands because I run 15 draw/filter spells. I regularly have the mana for Niv on turn 6 and when I don't a lot of the time it's because I pitched a land to jump start or Chart along the way then planned on drawing another one in a timely manner and whiff. Say what you want about the deck but my results prove that mana is not a big issue. No deck could put up the win % I have with this deck if the mana didn't work reasonably well even if all my opponents were booger eaters playing mono-green control. As I've said before 23 may be more correct but 22 clearly works.
How many UR source do you think I should be running? Unless there is another dual land cycle in standard that I have amnesia about on par with Steam Vents and Sulfur Falls I'm not interested.
My advice for UR decks that don't go the full control route would be to pack some Negate or Disdainful Stroke in the MB and go the aggro control route also,Radical Idea...you never get CA out of it Opt and Chemister's Insight should be enough for card drawing/filtering.
Looking at card advantage as the number of cards in your hand is an oversimplified view, that is not all card advantage is. The number of cards in your hand doesn't matter as much if half of them are dead. Throughout the game I will always at some point have spells or lands in my hand that I will never play or do not need as much as something else and Idea lets me pitch them for gas. Part of the reason this deck is so strong vs. control is that I usually end up sitting on a hand full of counters going into the late game because I'm tearing through my deck. You are talking about "how do I always cast Niv" and telling me to cut some of the cards that make that possible. You could cut Charts and Ideas but then it affects the Drake strat since they will typically come down with lower power and you have to add at least 3 maybe 4 lands or you will never hit Crackling Drake or Niv on curve.
I'd also give Risk Factor a spin, the fact that one card pretty much guarantees 2 castings really offsets the punisher card disadvantage here, I believe that card deserves some testing.
Risk Factor is awful in this deck. I usually kill my opponents in a couple big hits but a lot of time they are at 20 until they take the first drake hit then 1-2 turns later they are dead. If I don't have a Drake on the board they are never going to let me draw and if I'm actually threatening them with a Drake enough that they would let me draw ever I'm already in a winning position. I wouldn't play a 3 mana jump start "Deal 4 damage to opponent" in this deck and that's what Risk Factor is usually going to be. I think it's good in UR Wizards so if that's a card you are interested in I'd go with that kind of more aggressive build.
I understand your concerns about mana and card advantage as these are core concepts of the theory of magic deck building and this deck on paper defies them but trust me that this is valid. Whether it's what you want to be doing or not is a different story but I don't think cutting filter spells for MD Stroke/Negate, more lands, and Risk Factor is the answer.
The two cards to splash white for are settle the wreckage and deafening clarion. I was working on a Phoenix combo deck recently that uses Enigma drake as one of the threats and there are a ton of creatures that Cannonade just doesn't work against because of three toughness. Settle is pretty tough on mana without the Azorius shocks to help out, though.
I just wanted to give it a spin but there are a few white cards worth it. I really like Justice Strike killing most of the creatures Red has a really hard time with and Clarion is great. I was just giving it a test run though, that wasn't even a properly tuned list more of a very rough draft. Didn't even get to live the dream of both mode nuking the board + swinging with lifelinked Drake off Clarion which I really thought was going to come up more often.
You can run this as a Jeskai list too. I decided to try it just to see how it'd play and immediately 5-0's a competitive league. This is not an optimal list and I didn't put a ton of thought into it beyond making the mana work.
Updated Card choices explained Siren Stormtamer
Dive Down has been great but decks with Plaguecrafter and The Eldest Reborn have proven to be problematic to say the least, so this is a hedge against those.
Disdainful Stroke
Expansion/Explosion is just not the card I want it to be. Being able to counter mid/late game plays is a lot more important and applies to many more matchups.
Star of Extinction
A lot of games I was able to get to the late game but not quite stabilize as I struggle to trade Drakes and burn for creatures that snuck through in the early/mid game. This is a reset button you sometimes need. I reluctantly decided to try this out thinking it would suck but it's definitely justified it's place as a 1-of in the board.
Firemind's Research #3
Yes this card is just insane vs. control decks. I couldn't get my hands on a Spyglass so I decided to run this though to be honest I might have run it even if I did have the Spyglass since they are good in the same matchups.
PPTQ reportfrom memory so not 100% accurate
Round 1 vs. UBg Control (splashing for Trophy)
Game 1 I draw like crazy and counter his Doom Whisperer then finally stick a Drake and when he stabilizes and kills it I stick a Niv backed up with protection and ride it to victory.
Game 2 I side in Sirens, Strokes, Firemind's taking out burn and such. He plays t1/t2 discard while I do my draw cards thing. He plays Unmoored Ego and takes my Nivs. I drop a Drake and get in a small hit but he kills it then I drop another next turn so I can pressure him if he plays Doom Whisperer since he's ripped my counters but he drops an Eldest Reborn. I draw into counters and play a Siren holding up counters. He gets back a Drake and I draw and wall up behind multiple counters while he hits me a couple times for 4 each. I sit back and make land drops so I can drop a Drake with Stroke up and do that. I attack in with Drake and Siren and he trades Drakes. We draw go a few turns and play EOT draw spells so I have a critical mass of counters. I drop another Siren and crack in for 2 a turn and counter everything he plays. Eventually I draw another Drake and swing in for lethal.
1-0
Round 2 vs. Gb Midrange
I don't remember a lot of this match but I got there in two. Pretty sure an epic Star of Extinction was involved.
2-0
Round 3 vs. GW Convoke
Game 1 I Opt into Chart a Course into Drake, into Drake while He plays dudes into Venerated Loxodon. I play aggressively and start swinging with the Drakes immediately while holding up a counter. I counter a spell then a Fiery Cannonade slows his aggression, next turn I hit the last spell I need to swing out for lethal.
Game 2 I bring in Cannonade and Lava Coils. I use a Cannonade to clean up his History of Benalia and a Lava Coil to kill his Shalai, Voice of Plenty then I have counters and burn for the rest of his problems and clean up.
3-0
Round 3 vs. GB Value
Game 1 I get a timely counter or a Doom Whisperer and kill him with multiple Drakes and a timely Dive Down.
Game 2/3 This matchup is abysmal post board. He just outvalues the hell out of me.
3-1
Round 4 vs. Boros Midrange
Game 1 He gets there on the back of an Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice I can't answer.
Game 2 I get there with quick drakes and burn. Fiery Cannonade MVPs it killing 3 Knights at instant speed like you do then I Lava Coil a Shalai, Voice of Plenty and counter Lyra Dawnbringer.
Game 3 He has no early threats and lands a Shelia. I try to stabilize with a 3/4 Drake to block but he plays Lyra pumping the Shelia just out of trade range.
I play a second Drake and get them in trade range but he swings with just Lyra and has exile for one. I am at 6 lands with Star in hand and miss land 7 for 2 turns and play another desperation Drake to block but he has Justice Strike to kill one and gets in with another 5 trading with a Drake and drops another Shelia. I end up at 4 when I can finally Star but he has double Lightning Strikes to finish me off with Drake, Niv, Stroke, and Lava Coil in hand. This game felt very winnable and I probably pitched a land somewhere along the way that would have allowed me to get to 7 on time but you can't really see the top of your deck, it happens.
3-2
Round 5 vs. Jeskai Control
I'm at the top of X-2's on breakers so this is likely a win and in.
Game 1: He stumbles on land and I go off drawing cards and holding up counters just incase. He's forced to 2-for-1 himself to kill an 11-1 Drake then I drop Niv and win with overwhelming card advantage.
Game 2: He Bindings a Drake and I land a Firemind's Research then just sit back on counterspells and play draw spells to put counters on Research. He's backed into a corner and plays Lyra which I immediately kill with Research. I play Drake and swing in with which he Settle's allowing me to drop another one which connects next turn after I counter a Teferi. I play a Niv with Dive Down up and another in hand. He throws down another Teferi but is forced to plus it then just dies to my swing with Drake but I also had a kill with Niv triggers as backup.
4-2
I get in to Top 8 on breakers.
Top 8 Quarters vs. Boros Aggro
Game 1: He's the 1st seed and is on the play. Game 1 I have double Cannonade and a Sinnister Sabotage but he plays a turn 3 Tajic, Legion's Edge before I can get shields up. I wipe his board over 2 turns and he drops more creatures and is empty handed. I'm on the ropes and Chart a Course looking for an answer. I end up with a Cannonade in hand and 2 mana open with a shockland that I can't play or I die. With any other land there I clear his board and need to fade one draw then untap with lots of options. On the play I'm pretty sure I win this game.
Game 2: I 3-for-1 him with Cannonade and start dropping Drakes which clog up the board then kill him in two attack steps.
Game 3: I keep a 2xOpt + Radical Idea hand with no burn. He drops the 2/3 T2. I don't have any burn but Idea into Coil. He attacks and passes. I have Sinister Sabotage in hand but awkwardly not two blue so instead of holding the counter I Coil his dude and he pumps in response. He plays Benalia Marshal and I Opt and hit Island which allows me to drop a 3/4 Drake next turn. He drops another Marshal which puts all his attackers into a state where Drake would only be a chump. I drop another Drake and Chart which puts them into trade range. He attacks all and I block and trade with the Marshals. I untap and need to find a way to deal with the 2/3 and cast another draw spell coming up empty. In the end I hit 1 of 11 Burn Spells after seeing at least 18 cards which just feels like variance but the game would have been quite winnable with another burn spell to handle one of the Marshals or a second blue mana on turn 3 to hold up a counter with the option to play a draw spell EOT. Finish top 8
Post Tournament Thoughts
I really like this deck and think it's currently the best version of UR I have seen (and I have actively seeked them out). The deck has performed well in testing and I 2-1'd FNM but this was the first real test and it went rather well. There is certainly room for improvement as the meta seems to be taking shape. It is capable of playing a control game when the opponent stumbles and opportunity arrises then some games you just drop Drakes and race them. The deck is surprisingly versatile (even though I will admit it looks meh on paper).
I think I'm ready to test cutting 2x MD Dive Down and just run 2x Siren Stormtamer MD and 1x SB. This opens up another SB slot and I think it's probably time for 1-2x Fight With Fire in the 75 as there are several problematic 5 toughness creatures in the format (Lyra, Niv Mizzet, Aurelia). The burn package will need to continue to evolve based on what people are playing. Shivan Fire is another viable option if aggressive decks continue to be an issue being useful both early and mid/late game and maybe Beacon Bolt is worth a look as a 1x SB card. I do like the 1x Spyglass SB in theory but in practice the control matchup is already really really good so it may just be a waste of a SB slot on an already very favorable matchup but I like that it hits other random problem cards. I feel like I just win every UW based control matchup hands down.
If you are playing control the surveil from Sinister Sabotage is better than the 2 damage from Ionize 95% of the time. When I see a list that isn't aggressive running the first Ionize before the 4th Sinister Sabotage it just tells me the person posting the list hasn't done enough testing. This is especially true if your list runs jump start cards. Surveiling a jump start card into the graveyard practically turns SS into "Counter target spell draw a card" randomly. The only deck I like any number of Ionize over the 4th Sabotage is an aggro UR Wizards list that runs Risk Factor which again, if I see that in a control list I just know the person has done like zero actual testing.
Edit: Also you will maybe have to take my word on this but I have done a ton of testing and Firemind's Research is absolutely INSANE in control mirrors. I initially thought it was a meme card but in this one context it is really really good. Like markedly better than Ral in control matchups.
How bad is the Mono G/GB matchup? If you were bringing this into a FNM or some other kind of tournament and you saw a lot of Mono G stompy decks, would you just bench the deck or do you think it would be worth playing if the main board was more tooled to the match up (Maybe running Lava Coils main board?)?
Is the reason you removed Expansion/Explosion because it's main benefit was in control match ups?
EDIT: Now that I think about it, maybe Beacon Bolt could help answer Mono-G's big stompy threats. Between the discard from Chart a Course and Radical Idea and even Beacon Bolt itself, I bet you could hit 4-6 power pretty easily. It kind of sucks that it's not an instant, though and it is 3 mana.
Right now the deck is metagamed to survive against low to the ground aggro decks that I expect a lot of. If the 4 damage from Coil looks to be more important than the instant speed of Lightning Strike I would certainly change up the numbers. I see that happening at some point but I think in the early meta it will not be as important. I think as time goes on we will see less goblins and more Steelleafs/Nicol Bolas at which point the change will become clear. I have been considering testing a single Beacon Bolt in the SB but haven't gotten around to it yet.
It's too early to say where this deck will end up as it really depends where the meta is. If Stompy ends up being the most played deck I probably wouldn't stick with this since it's not a great matchup but I really think UW/UWx Control will do a good job of keeping Stompy in check and allow the meta to open up and my control matchup has looked really good so far.
Couldn't you add lands like Detection Tower to help against Green Stompy? Although this is a bad matchup, it seems like a *common* matchup, given how this is probably gonna be a killer deck out of the gate.
Detection Tower is not really what we want here. Even if you can target a 6/6 or 7/6 what does that accomplish? Stroke will help a lot I think. The matchup is not unwinnable but it's not great. I'd rather run Erratic Cyclops as a blocker at that point since it answers so many problem cards and makes attacking a risky proposition.
Edit: Maybe I'm overstating how bad the G/Gb matchup is on here. I went back over my notes from testing and I'm over 50% vs. Mono-Green and Gb Stompy but it is a scary deck for sure.
After looking at what's happening with the meta I don't think Time of Ice is the solution I'm looking for as Thrashing Brontodon and Vine Mare are seeing more play and green decks are splashing for Assassin's Trophy. My main concern when I started using it was dealing with a resolved Ghalta, Primal Hunger since that's otherwise a complete loss while sometimes a Carnage Tyrant can be traded with. I've since convinced myself to switch out the Expansion // Explosion in the SB for 2x Disdainful Stroke which will help a lot in that matchup and possibly look into using a few Erratic Cyclops as an all purpose wall that can sometimes threaten to kill attackers as that could brick any creature except for a Ghalta. Usually this matchup comes down to me just needing a little breathing room until I can land a Drake that doesn't need to be on trading duty then close out the game ASAP. It's the scariest matchup IMO but every deck has those and unless G/Gb is the majority of the meta it's manageable.
vs G(?) Stompy - You don't really have a way to block or answer a T2 Steel-Leaf Champion or a T3 Nullhide Ferox. I think the only option here is to race but their creatures are bigger and come down earlier. This seems like a really bad G1 match-up and when they side in Carnage Tyrants against your counter-spells I'm not really sure how that gets any better. 3 MD Cannonade seems really bad here, it really only removes their mana dorks (after they already are on 4 mana on T3) and maybe their value creatures like Branchwalkers.
This deck has a bunch of mediocre re-draw spells, very little in the way of removal (and nothing against 3T or more), not a fast clock and relying on creatures that you untap with who don't really have any protection, haste, and who don't have power on their own.
I also can't imagine why Search for Azcanta isn't in this deck, especially with Firemind's Research in your 75 which seems quite frankly to be unplayable in any format that isn't casual commander. Search also helps fill your big with jump-start cards and just things to pump your drakes.
Stompy is a bad matchup pre-board. That just is what it is and if you find a deck without bad matchups LMK. Post board it gets better with Lava Coil and now Strokes. Cannonade typically kills at least 12 creatures in every Stompy deck I've seen (Elves, Branchwalker, Kraul Harpooner, Pelt Collector). It's not there for this matchup but also it's not the worst here since that is every 1/2 drop except for Thorn Lieutenant. Also by turn 3 I can start dropping X/4 fliers in the air which make pretty solid walls if I need a little breathing room. Nullhide Ferox is a problem but not a lot of decks are excited to be facing down a 6/6 semi-hexproof turn 3. Stompy on a nut draw is a really scary deck for anyone.
Saying the creatures in my deck don't have power on their own I don't get. I mean by the time they hit the board they are not going to be 0/4's and with what this deck is doing they grow very quickly. I don't know what to tell you about the "mediocre redraw spells" except that the draw engine in this deck is very powerful.
I tested Search, it's a great card but not what this deck wants to be doing. It was great vs. control but that's already a good matchup.
I also thought Firemind's Research was a meme card but after testing it's an absolute bomb vs. control that can slide in under the radar at 2 mana before they get the shields up and gets annoying very quickly. It only comes in vs. control decks, it's strictly a SB card.
You seem to be misunderstanding how this deck works. It's not a control deck, it's typically more of a tempo deck. My draw spells and removal for early threats get me to the mid game where I can drop X/4 fliers every turn which is not insignificant. I'm not trying to control the game or combo off. That said vs. slower grindy decks I can build up card advantage that is difficult for them to overcome.
Preface
So I've been experimenting a lot with Izzet Drakes since the prerelease. It seems like most people are trying to take Izzet Drake decks in a more aggressive direction which I tested and found extremely underwhelming. This deck is the result of roughly 100 test matches with a respectable win rate vs. every deck I expect to be a significant part of the early meta (UW/UWr control, Mono-Green, Mono-Red, Boros, GB/GBw midrange). It typically takes a slightly more controlling role using the early/mid game to draw cards and answer early threats then transitions into explosive wins with high impact creatures backed by counters/protection and card advantage in the mid/late game. I chose to make a new thread instead of adding to the existing threads as I have put a significant amount of refinement and testing into this list already and I want a clearer separation between my list and the more aggressive existing wizard/drake thread or the existing Izzet Control thread which are significantly different takes on UR.
Card Explanations Maindeck Lands
22 lands seems very light but with 12 draw spells at 2cmc or less it's not as big an issues as it might appear on paper. It's possible 23 is more correct, I may test that soon if I start to have more mana issues but it hasn't been a huge issue yet.
Enigma Drake & Crackling Drake
On offense Drakes are capable of ending the game in very short order which is our primary wincon. 4 toughness on a flying body also acts as an all important meat shield as you establish control vs aggressive decks. Which drake is better in a given situation is conditional.
Enigma coming down a turn sooner vs aggro can be a real life saver and also being able to play it on turn 4 with Dive Down backup is crucial in some circumstances. Also sometimes vs. UW Control on the draw it's very risky to tap out turn 4 for a Crackling Drake as you leave yourself open to counter into uncontested Teferi or other various nightmare scenarios.
The replacement draw from Crackling Drake is not to be underestimated and it gains power for exiled spells in addition to the cards in your graveyard which can be relevant with jump-start (Enigma only counts spells in graveyard). Hitting all your land drops is important in a lot of matchups, Crackling Drake makes that a lot easier and it's a lot less painful to trade off the Crackling's body in combat in attrition games.
Niv-Mizzet, Parun
Niv-Mizzet is the real deal and I expect a lot more people to realize this as the meta progresses. Untapping with Niv is almost 100% game over in my experience and in a lot of matchups having him survival until that crucial untap step is key to victory. Note: The triggers can get extremely complicated at times and you will need practice to use him to his full effect. Uncounterable is extremely relevant vs. Control decks and often you will draw enough cards from your opponent struggling to remove him from the board that you will quickly be able to overwhelm them even if he is killed. Vs. creature strategies he can easily clean up a crowded board and allow you to take full control at which point you can easily ride him to victory.
Dive Down
Your creatures are all high impact and expensive. Dive Down allows you to protect them for the low price of 1 mana. Many situations you will need Drakes to clog up the board or pressure opponents and Dive Down will allow that to happen in the face of removal that might otherwise be game ending. On occasion the 3 extra toughness can make or break combat. Protecting Niv will win games, period. Trust me that Dive Down is a requirement in this list and let your testing speak to that.
Opt
Not much to say about this, great filtering and our only turn 1 play.
Chart a Course & Chemister's Insight & Radical Idea
Great draw effects. The ability to turn extra lands into meaningful cards is crucial as well as the ability to discard irrelevant MD cards in matchups where they are dead, which allows up to run several situational answers we wouldn't otherwise. Discarding spells to power Drakes can also be relevant at times.
Lightning Strike
Premium burn. The majority of the time you are going to want to use these as control spells. I basically never point these at the opponent's face unless a win is imminent.
Sinister Sabotage
Counter target spell, a classic. Yes the surveil is 100% better than the 2 damage Ionize provides in this deck, please don't suggest Ionize over Sabotage. Surveiling a Jump-Start spell into the graveyard is pure gas and even binning an irrelevant spell powers up Drakes.
Fiery Cannonade
The early meta will be heavily defined by aggressive decks like mono-red and boros. Fiery Cannonade is the only reason we have a reasonable matchup. I have gotten some insane X-for-1's with Cannonade, MVP. Knowing when to Cannonade and when to hold it will make or break many matchups. Even in dead matchups this will not clog up your hand as you can discard it to Chart a Course or jump-start.
Sideboard Dive Down
Comes in vs. removal heavy decks or where protecting Niv is vital.
Fiery Cannonade
Comes in vs. aggressive decks, vital conditional sweeper for these matchups.
Lava Coil
Comes in vs. aggressive decks and where the extra damage is relevant (*cough* Steel Leaf Champion *cough*)
Ral, Izzet Viceroy
Comes in vs. control decks that don't have a lot of ways to pressure planeswalkers. I'm not in love with Ral TBH but he's here for now.
Expansion // Explosion
Comes in vs. control decks. Expansion can allow you to win counter wars and randomly copying other spells can be relevant. Explosion is a great way to climb back into grindfest games. Every time I consider cutting this for a Negate or Disdainful Stroke I have a game where Explosion is MVP and reconsider. That said it's entirely possible Disdainful Stroke is a better choice especially if mono-green or Doom Whisperer end up being a significant part of the meta.
Niv-Mizzet, Parun
Niv is MVP in control matchups for obvious reasons. If you can untap with a Niv it becomes very hard to lose vs. UW control as long as you don't attack into Settle the Wreckage or Seal Away. When I land a Niv in those matchups I just sit back and grind them out with card advantage and his burn effect. They still need to keep mana open for these spells though so you can't just freely attack in which usually strains their resources to the breaking point.
Time of Ice
Testing this vs. mono-green and midrange decks with multiple creatures I can't answer easily with burn to give myself a little breathing room while I establish control over the game. So far it's been good but I still need more testing to understand how it truly affects these matchups.
Sorcerous Spyglass
Miser answer to planeswalkers and random problematic permanents. Most UW control decks I see don't have a ton of answers to this post board naming Teferi and the few they do have they would usually rather be using to answer threats.
BBE will not be unbanned. It hasn't even been on the list 1.5 years and we are not far removed from stale Jund dominance era which no one wants to return to.
Pod isn't dominating. Storm isn't dominating. BGx was just barely dominating with DRS and BBE is much less powerful than DRS.
I didn't say I wanted or would agree with those bannings just that I would be about 0% surprised because WotC manages the Modern banned list with sissy fingers and kid gloves. Storm can go off turn 3, is pretty consistent turn 4, has had many elements banned in the past, and had the highest win % of any deck at the Modern PT this year. Pod has been putting up a lot of high placings recently and was over 1/2 of the top 8 in Richmond, it's better than most of the cards currently on the banned list and seems to be the kind of all purpose tutor/card advantage/combo enabler all in one they don't want in the format.
In the end I don't think anything will be banned, and I certainly hope Storm isn't banned as I've been playing it a lot and plan to take it to the GP in May. If it is I will probably just say **** Modern for another 2 years like I'd been doing up until PT Valencia.
BBE will not be unbanned. It hasn't even been on the list 1.5 years and we are not far removed from stale Jund dominance era which no one wants to return to.
Those great players chose the perfect time to play Storm at that Pro tour. Has there been an event since where storm has dominated? It did well at that one event because 2 whole teams of Pros were playing the deck, and played it at the perfect time, right after the Deathrite ban.
And while yes, the entire deck is 4 ofs, all of those 4 of don't actually do much of anything on there own. There are plenty of times all you do is cantrip into cantrips or build up hands with 5 Rituals and nothing to do with them.
6 lands on any turn with this deck stinks on ice, i can't say anything about that..
All i'm saying, is you testing at home is no different than you playing at FNM. I mean, do you realize how ridiculous it sounds when you say "When i play against myself i win all the time, but when i play against other people i lose, It must be bad luck"
The deck is just inconsistent. Absurdly powerful, yes, but still inconsistent.
You don't have to take my word for it though. Keep jamming the deck, and doing your thing. My opinion is just an opinion. I'm sure you'll put up some great results if you stick with it; it's definitely not a bad deck by any stretch of the imagination. I'm just personally not convinced this is the optimal storm build.
I disagree. The deck is actually amazingly consistent. Granted I've been running a slightly different configuration with 3x Looting and 4x Ravings instead of 3x Ravings and 4x Scour. Wasn't very pleased with Scour as many times it was just draw 1 for U when I needed more. Not to mention SB games when I'm digging for my Echoing Truth to win from under a Rule of Law and Scour manages to bin my one out and basically end the game. The deck is explosive vs. decks without disruption and vs. decks with heavy disruption you often have inevitability and just overrun them with card advantage and superior filter late game.
The deck also lets you outplay opponents. It is certainly not the Belcher of Modern that would be Ad Nauseum, or better yet All-in Breach/Vengence. Belcher and other glass canons are all-in decks for maniacs, Modern storm gives you lots of room to maneuver around opponents. If you are playing every match like you are goldfishing at home be prepared to be disappointed with the deck.
I've won many games without comboing out on turn 3-4, especially after board when you have access to Bolts. Many creature decks will SB heavily diluting their threats which allows you to sideboard into Bolts, Angers, Shatterstorms, and maybe even Empties (I don't bring them in vs. Pod or Affinity but most other creature decks I think it's right) and just draw out the game forever and win through inevitability.
The worst matchup by far is Faeries which has a fastish clock and infinite disruption. Luckily this deck is not very popular and likely a poor meta call at most events. Every other matchup feels to be about 40-45% at worst (possible exception Hatebears and maybe Jund, need more testing and lists seem to very greatly). Meanwhile the deck has many matchups that are often virtual byes and due to its explosive nature and scary SB options (and the fact it makes up only roughly 5-6% of the overall metagame) has a lot of game vs. most of the top tier.
I've been to 4 events in the past month and only failed to hit prize support once (and I was 5th on breakers there). I've lost more matches to misplays then to the deck having any issues. Not counting Byes or IDs my match record with the deck is a respectable 12-4-1 two of those loses and the draw I chalk up to play errors on my part.
When playing Storm you really need to know how to play to your outs. When to go for it and when to wait one more turn to make sure you have it. How to play into and around your opponents hate when appropriate. How to Git Probe your opponent and set them up to use their resources in a certain way so you can turn around and punish them once they no longer have those resources. When to setup a non-lethal Grapeshot or Empty to stall the board so you can rebuild. Storm has a huge decision tree, I think a lot of people who lose with the deck blame it on consistency when in reality it's possible they made a mistake perhaps early in the game which caught up with them later and in reality they could be winning games with skill they are instead losing and blaming luck.
I guess my answer to creatures is to bounce and counter them, I don't expect many to resolve, especially early game, because I run so much permission. I'm running 10 counter spells, 14 if you count Spellstutter Sprite, and 18 if you count using Snap with Spellstutter Sprite. If some do resolve later game, I'll be ahead, and I can just race them with all my faeries.
If I go first, I'll always counter their two turn play, hopefully with a Spellstutter, Ill also counter their turn 3 play.
Running Zephyr Sprite over Delver of Secrets also makes Spellstutter Sprite better. Interesting I wouldn't need Brainstorm, but I do want to rule out Delver, because it's a very very popular deck that's been done before, and I'm not super competitive or anything.
1: Creatures are going to resolve, trust me when I say Spire Golem is insane in monoU. Part of the reason is they drop a couple 2/2's early and you can just leave up counterspell mana knowing when you hit 4 lands you can drop a spire golem and leave a counter up and they can't swing into it without losing a guy.
2: Taking MonoU and trading out Spire Golem for Vapor Snag and Delver for Zephyr Sprite doesn't make your deck any more original or innovative than if I took MonoRed and replaced Lightning Bolt with Shock and Chain Lightning with Volcanic Hammer. You keep saying you don't want to run Delver like you get some originality points for it, but just accept you are playing the same MonoU deck as everyone else at the end of the day. There is room to innovate in MonoU but it's more in the spells and sideboard IMO, the creature base is already damn good at what it does.
Delver needs Brainstorm, and I don't like Brainstorm (not to mention I don't want to buy any). Also everyone does Delver, so I wanted to mix it up a bit. The Golem is cool, although he feels like win more against aggro. I'm not sure how I feel about Daze, can someone explain to me why it's so good, maybe some hypothetical examples, it seems like you would want to use it closer to the early game, and then you don't want to get set back a land.
It's 60 not 58, I need to edit it, I have card advantage at 6 when it's really 8.
Delver doesn't need Brainstorm. In my MonoU deck I run no Brainstorms and Delver flips are not really an issue.
How is Golem win-more vs. anything? What is your plan vs. 2/2 creatures just double block, bounce, and counter them and still win the game? It isn't going to work out like that. In a lot of matchups Golem is the best creature in the deck. The MonoU mirror often comes down to who can stick the most Golems.
Daze can be a blowout but I don't run any. IMO there isn't too much early game now adays people can play that I can't handle so I'd rather run more hard counters that are relevant mid-late game. I've replaced 2x Dazes in my deck with 2x Psychic Barrier and never regretted it.
I think the time where Daze was a top tier counter passed when Invigorate and Empty the Warrens/Grapeshot got banned.
UW - Skies
UB - Control
UR - Spells Matter
UG - Ramp
GW - Tokens/Anthems
GR - Big Aggro
GB - Midrange "Rock" Grind
BR - Aggro w/ premium removal
BW - "1 Drop" Aggro (Similar to M25 draft if anyone played that)
WR - Aggro w/ burn
All the colors can support other decks though, so if your GW tokens deck doesn't come together and you don't get the anthems you can still pivot to a decent GW aggro/midrange deck with bigger creatures and ramp or you could make a BR grindy deck for example with sweepers/removal and higher cmc threats. Once you get into 3 colors there's a lot more combinations where midrange or control make sense.
I played a straight UR deck at the beginning of the format and once it started to settle into a defined meta I switched to Jeskai and went more controlling and haven't looked back. Yes that is pretty much what is happening. I imagine if you looked at relevant creatures Doom Blade killed when it was in Standard and relevant creatures Justice Strike kills in this standard that Justice Strike would come out ahead. Seal Away isn't doing it for me for reasons that should be obvious when comparing it to Justice Strike. Settle is great but I run them SB and Nova main. The 3 damage from Clarion is much more relevant than the instant speed of Cannonade now that the format is what it is and on rare occasions the lifelink might save you. White also gives you a few better SB options, including ways to deal with resolved enchantments. The mana isn't much worse than straight UR honestly. I've had a few games where I played 5 taplands in a row or couldn't hit a colored mana when I really needed it, but same with UR and that's just variance most of the time, it's fine. The thing about Teferi is he's not replacing Ral they are complementing each other. Having two PW on the field is so much better than having just one which is why I run a 3/2 split instead of 4/1. Tocatli Honor Guard is promising vs. GB which is not a great matchup for UR, at least in my experience but there are many lists out there and I can't comment on them all. SB Lyra is another great reason to run white obviously.
The list works with 22 lands because I run 15 draw/filter spells. I regularly have the mana for Niv on turn 6 and when I don't a lot of the time it's because I pitched a land to jump start or Chart along the way then planned on drawing another one in a timely manner and whiff. Say what you want about the deck but my results prove that mana is not a big issue. No deck could put up the win % I have with this deck if the mana didn't work reasonably well even if all my opponents were booger eaters playing mono-green control. As I've said before 23 may be more correct but 22 clearly works.
How many UR source do you think I should be running? Unless there is another dual land cycle in standard that I have amnesia about on par with Steam Vents and Sulfur Falls I'm not interested.
Looking at card advantage as the number of cards in your hand is an oversimplified view, that is not all card advantage is. The number of cards in your hand doesn't matter as much if half of them are dead. Throughout the game I will always at some point have spells or lands in my hand that I will never play or do not need as much as something else and Idea lets me pitch them for gas. Part of the reason this deck is so strong vs. control is that I usually end up sitting on a hand full of counters going into the late game because I'm tearing through my deck. You are talking about "how do I always cast Niv" and telling me to cut some of the cards that make that possible. You could cut Charts and Ideas but then it affects the Drake strat since they will typically come down with lower power and you have to add at least 3 maybe 4 lands or you will never hit Crackling Drake or Niv on curve.
Risk Factor is awful in this deck. I usually kill my opponents in a couple big hits but a lot of time they are at 20 until they take the first drake hit then 1-2 turns later they are dead. If I don't have a Drake on the board they are never going to let me draw and if I'm actually threatening them with a Drake enough that they would let me draw ever I'm already in a winning position. I wouldn't play a 3 mana jump start "Deal 4 damage to opponent" in this deck and that's what Risk Factor is usually going to be. I think it's good in UR Wizards so if that's a card you are interested in I'd go with that kind of more aggressive build.
I understand your concerns about mana and card advantage as these are core concepts of the theory of magic deck building and this deck on paper defies them but trust me that this is valid. Whether it's what you want to be doing or not is a different story but I don't think cutting filter spells for MD Stroke/Negate, more lands, and Risk Factor is the answer.
I just wanted to give it a spin but there are a few white cards worth it. I really like Justice Strike killing most of the creatures Red has a really hard time with and Clarion is great. I was just giving it a test run though, that wasn't even a properly tuned list more of a very rough draft. Didn't even get to live the dream of both mode nuking the board + swinging with lifelinked Drake off Clarion which I really thought was going to come up more often.
8 Island
6 Mountain
4 Steam Vents
4 Sulfur Falls
Creatures
4 Enigma Drake
4 Crackling Drake
2 Niv-Mizzet, Parun
2 Dive Down
4 Opt
4 Chart a Course
4 Radical Idea
4 Lightning Strike
4 Sinister Sabotage
3 Fiery Cannonade
3 Chemister's Insight
2 Siren Stormtamer
1 Fiery Cannonade
4 Lava Coil
3 Disdainful Stroke
1 Niv-Mizzet, Parun
3 Firemind's Research
1 Star of Extinction
Updated Card choices explained
Siren Stormtamer
Dive Down has been great but decks with Plaguecrafter and The Eldest Reborn have proven to be problematic to say the least, so this is a hedge against those.
Disdainful Stroke
Expansion/Explosion is just not the card I want it to be. Being able to counter mid/late game plays is a lot more important and applies to many more matchups.
Star of Extinction
A lot of games I was able to get to the late game but not quite stabilize as I struggle to trade Drakes and burn for creatures that snuck through in the early/mid game. This is a reset button you sometimes need. I reluctantly decided to try this out thinking it would suck but it's definitely justified it's place as a 1-of in the board.
Firemind's Research #3
Yes this card is just insane vs. control decks. I couldn't get my hands on a Spyglass so I decided to run this though to be honest I might have run it even if I did have the Spyglass since they are good in the same matchups.
PPTQ report from memory so not 100% accurate
Round 1 vs. UBg Control (splashing for Trophy)
Game 1 I draw like crazy and counter his Doom Whisperer then finally stick a Drake and when he stabilizes and kills it I stick a Niv backed up with protection and ride it to victory.
Game 2 I side in Sirens, Strokes, Firemind's taking out burn and such. He plays t1/t2 discard while I do my draw cards thing. He plays Unmoored Ego and takes my Nivs. I drop a Drake and get in a small hit but he kills it then I drop another next turn so I can pressure him if he plays Doom Whisperer since he's ripped my counters but he drops an Eldest Reborn. I draw into counters and play a Siren holding up counters. He gets back a Drake and I draw and wall up behind multiple counters while he hits me a couple times for 4 each. I sit back and make land drops so I can drop a Drake with Stroke up and do that. I attack in with Drake and Siren and he trades Drakes. We draw go a few turns and play EOT draw spells so I have a critical mass of counters. I drop another Siren and crack in for 2 a turn and counter everything he plays. Eventually I draw another Drake and swing in for lethal.
1-0
Round 2 vs. Gb Midrange
I don't remember a lot of this match but I got there in two. Pretty sure an epic Star of Extinction was involved.
2-0
Round 3 vs. GW Convoke
Game 1 I Opt into Chart a Course into Drake, into Drake while He plays dudes into Venerated Loxodon. I play aggressively and start swinging with the Drakes immediately while holding up a counter. I counter a spell then a Fiery Cannonade slows his aggression, next turn I hit the last spell I need to swing out for lethal.
Game 2 I bring in Cannonade and Lava Coils. I use a Cannonade to clean up his History of Benalia and a Lava Coil to kill his Shalai, Voice of Plenty then I have counters and burn for the rest of his problems and clean up.
3-0
Round 3 vs. GB Value
Game 1 I get a timely counter or a Doom Whisperer and kill him with multiple Drakes and a timely Dive Down.
Game 2/3 This matchup is abysmal post board. He just outvalues the hell out of me.
3-1
Round 4 vs. Boros Midrange
Game 1 He gets there on the back of an Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice I can't answer.
Game 2 I get there with quick drakes and burn. Fiery Cannonade MVPs it killing 3 Knights at instant speed like you do then I Lava Coil a Shalai, Voice of Plenty and counter Lyra Dawnbringer.
Game 3 He has no early threats and lands a Shelia. I try to stabilize with a 3/4 Drake to block but he plays Lyra pumping the Shelia just out of trade range.
I play a second Drake and get them in trade range but he swings with just Lyra and has exile for one. I am at 6 lands with Star in hand and miss land 7 for 2 turns and play another desperation Drake to block but he has Justice Strike to kill one and gets in with another 5 trading with a Drake and drops another Shelia. I end up at 4 when I can finally Star but he has double Lightning Strikes to finish me off with Drake, Niv, Stroke, and Lava Coil in hand. This game felt very winnable and I probably pitched a land somewhere along the way that would have allowed me to get to 7 on time but you can't really see the top of your deck, it happens.
3-2
Round 5 vs. Jeskai Control
I'm at the top of X-2's on breakers so this is likely a win and in.
Game 1: He stumbles on land and I go off drawing cards and holding up counters just incase. He's forced to 2-for-1 himself to kill an 11-1 Drake then I drop Niv and win with overwhelming card advantage.
Game 2: He Bindings a Drake and I land a Firemind's Research then just sit back on counterspells and play draw spells to put counters on Research. He's backed into a corner and plays Lyra which I immediately kill with Research. I play Drake and swing in with which he Settle's allowing me to drop another one which connects next turn after I counter a Teferi. I play a Niv with Dive Down up and another in hand. He throws down another Teferi but is forced to plus it then just dies to my swing with Drake but I also had a kill with Niv triggers as backup.
4-2
I get in to Top 8 on breakers.
Top 8 Quarters vs. Boros Aggro
Game 1: He's the 1st seed and is on the play. Game 1 I have double Cannonade and a Sinnister Sabotage but he plays a turn 3 Tajic, Legion's Edge before I can get shields up. I wipe his board over 2 turns and he drops more creatures and is empty handed. I'm on the ropes and Chart a Course looking for an answer. I end up with a Cannonade in hand and 2 mana open with a shockland that I can't play or I die. With any other land there I clear his board and need to fade one draw then untap with lots of options. On the play I'm pretty sure I win this game.
Game 2: I 3-for-1 him with Cannonade and start dropping Drakes which clog up the board then kill him in two attack steps.
Game 3: I keep a 2xOpt + Radical Idea hand with no burn. He drops the 2/3 T2. I don't have any burn but Idea into Coil. He attacks and passes. I have Sinister Sabotage in hand but awkwardly not two blue so instead of holding the counter I Coil his dude and he pumps in response. He plays Benalia Marshal and I Opt and hit Island which allows me to drop a 3/4 Drake next turn. He drops another Marshal which puts all his attackers into a state where Drake would only be a chump. I drop another Drake and Chart which puts them into trade range. He attacks all and I block and trade with the Marshals. I untap and need to find a way to deal with the 2/3 and cast another draw spell coming up empty. In the end I hit 1 of 11 Burn Spells after seeing at least 18 cards which just feels like variance but the game would have been quite winnable with another burn spell to handle one of the Marshals or a second blue mana on turn 3 to hold up a counter with the option to play a draw spell EOT.
Finish top 8
Post Tournament Thoughts
I really like this deck and think it's currently the best version of UR I have seen (and I have actively seeked them out). The deck has performed well in testing and I 2-1'd FNM but this was the first real test and it went rather well. There is certainly room for improvement as the meta seems to be taking shape. It is capable of playing a control game when the opponent stumbles and opportunity arrises then some games you just drop Drakes and race them. The deck is surprisingly versatile (even though I will admit it looks meh on paper).
I think I'm ready to test cutting 2x MD Dive Down and just run 2x Siren Stormtamer MD and 1x SB. This opens up another SB slot and I think it's probably time for 1-2x Fight With Fire in the 75 as there are several problematic 5 toughness creatures in the format (Lyra, Niv Mizzet, Aurelia). The burn package will need to continue to evolve based on what people are playing. Shivan Fire is another viable option if aggressive decks continue to be an issue being useful both early and mid/late game and maybe Beacon Bolt is worth a look as a 1x SB card. I do like the 1x Spyglass SB in theory but in practice the control matchup is already really really good so it may just be a waste of a SB slot on an already very favorable matchup but I like that it hits other random problem cards. I feel like I just win every UW based control matchup hands down.
Current Match Record 71%
Wins: 56
Loses: 23
Edit: Also you will maybe have to take my word on this but I have done a ton of testing and Firemind's Research is absolutely INSANE in control mirrors. I initially thought it was a meme card but in this one context it is really really good. Like markedly better than Ral in control matchups.
Right now the deck is metagamed to survive against low to the ground aggro decks that I expect a lot of. If the 4 damage from Coil looks to be more important than the instant speed of Lightning Strike I would certainly change up the numbers. I see that happening at some point but I think in the early meta it will not be as important. I think as time goes on we will see less goblins and more Steelleafs/Nicol Bolas at which point the change will become clear. I have been considering testing a single Beacon Bolt in the SB but haven't gotten around to it yet.
It's too early to say where this deck will end up as it really depends where the meta is. If Stompy ends up being the most played deck I probably wouldn't stick with this since it's not a great matchup but I really think UW/UWx Control will do a good job of keeping Stompy in check and allow the meta to open up and my control matchup has looked really good so far.
Detection Tower is not really what we want here. Even if you can target a 6/6 or 7/6 what does that accomplish? Stroke will help a lot I think. The matchup is not unwinnable but it's not great. I'd rather run Erratic Cyclops as a blocker at that point since it answers so many problem cards and makes attacking a risky proposition.
Edit: Maybe I'm overstating how bad the G/Gb matchup is on here. I went back over my notes from testing and I'm over 50% vs. Mono-Green and Gb Stompy but it is a scary deck for sure.
Stompy is a bad matchup pre-board. That just is what it is and if you find a deck without bad matchups LMK. Post board it gets better with Lava Coil and now Strokes. Cannonade typically kills at least 12 creatures in every Stompy deck I've seen (Elves, Branchwalker, Kraul Harpooner, Pelt Collector). It's not there for this matchup but also it's not the worst here since that is every 1/2 drop except for Thorn Lieutenant. Also by turn 3 I can start dropping X/4 fliers in the air which make pretty solid walls if I need a little breathing room. Nullhide Ferox is a problem but not a lot of decks are excited to be facing down a 6/6 semi-hexproof turn 3. Stompy on a nut draw is a really scary deck for anyone.
Saying the creatures in my deck don't have power on their own I don't get. I mean by the time they hit the board they are not going to be 0/4's and with what this deck is doing they grow very quickly. I don't know what to tell you about the "mediocre redraw spells" except that the draw engine in this deck is very powerful.
I tested Search, it's a great card but not what this deck wants to be doing. It was great vs. control but that's already a good matchup.
I also thought Firemind's Research was a meme card but after testing it's an absolute bomb vs. control that can slide in under the radar at 2 mana before they get the shields up and gets annoying very quickly. It only comes in vs. control decks, it's strictly a SB card.
You seem to be misunderstanding how this deck works. It's not a control deck, it's typically more of a tempo deck. My draw spells and removal for early threats get me to the mid game where I can drop X/4 fliers every turn which is not insignificant. I'm not trying to control the game or combo off. That said vs. slower grindy decks I can build up card advantage that is difficult for them to overcome.
Preface
So I've been experimenting a lot with Izzet Drakes since the prerelease. It seems like most people are trying to take Izzet Drake decks in a more aggressive direction which I tested and found extremely underwhelming. This deck is the result of roughly 100 test matches with a respectable win rate vs. every deck I expect to be a significant part of the early meta (UW/UWr control, Mono-Green, Mono-Red, Boros, GB/GBw midrange). It typically takes a slightly more controlling role using the early/mid game to draw cards and answer early threats then transitions into explosive wins with high impact creatures backed by counters/protection and card advantage in the mid/late game. I chose to make a new thread instead of adding to the existing threads as I have put a significant amount of refinement and testing into this list already and I want a clearer separation between my list and the more aggressive existing wizard/drake thread or the existing Izzet Control thread which are significantly different takes on UR.
8 Island
6 Mountain
4 Steam Vents
4 Sulfur Falls
Creatures
4 Enigma Drake
4 Crackling Drake
2 Niv-Mizzet, Parun
2 Dive Down
4 Opt
4 Chart a Course
4 Radical Idea
4 Lightning Strike
4 Sinister Sabotage
3 Fiery Cannonade
3 Chemister's Insight
1 Dive Down
1 Fiery Cannonade
4 Lava Coil
1 Ral, Izzet Viceroy
2 Expansion // Explosion
1 Niv-Mizzet, Parun
2 Time of Ice
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Firemind's Research
Card Explanations
Maindeck
Lands
22 lands seems very light but with 12 draw spells at 2cmc or less it's not as big an issues as it might appear on paper. It's possible 23 is more correct, I may test that soon if I start to have more mana issues but it hasn't been a huge issue yet.
Enigma Drake & Crackling Drake
On offense Drakes are capable of ending the game in very short order which is our primary wincon. 4 toughness on a flying body also acts as an all important meat shield as you establish control vs aggressive decks. Which drake is better in a given situation is conditional.
Enigma coming down a turn sooner vs aggro can be a real life saver and also being able to play it on turn 4 with Dive Down backup is crucial in some circumstances. Also sometimes vs. UW Control on the draw it's very risky to tap out turn 4 for a Crackling Drake as you leave yourself open to counter into uncontested Teferi or other various nightmare scenarios.
The replacement draw from Crackling Drake is not to be underestimated and it gains power for exiled spells in addition to the cards in your graveyard which can be relevant with jump-start (Enigma only counts spells in graveyard). Hitting all your land drops is important in a lot of matchups, Crackling Drake makes that a lot easier and it's a lot less painful to trade off the Crackling's body in combat in attrition games.
Niv-Mizzet, Parun
Niv-Mizzet is the real deal and I expect a lot more people to realize this as the meta progresses. Untapping with Niv is almost 100% game over in my experience and in a lot of matchups having him survival until that crucial untap step is key to victory. Note: The triggers can get extremely complicated at times and you will need practice to use him to his full effect. Uncounterable is extremely relevant vs. Control decks and often you will draw enough cards from your opponent struggling to remove him from the board that you will quickly be able to overwhelm them even if he is killed. Vs. creature strategies he can easily clean up a crowded board and allow you to take full control at which point you can easily ride him to victory.
Dive Down
Your creatures are all high impact and expensive. Dive Down allows you to protect them for the low price of 1 mana. Many situations you will need Drakes to clog up the board or pressure opponents and Dive Down will allow that to happen in the face of removal that might otherwise be game ending. On occasion the 3 extra toughness can make or break combat. Protecting Niv will win games, period. Trust me that Dive Down is a requirement in this list and let your testing speak to that.
Opt
Not much to say about this, great filtering and our only turn 1 play.
Chart a Course & Chemister's Insight & Radical Idea
Great draw effects. The ability to turn extra lands into meaningful cards is crucial as well as the ability to discard irrelevant MD cards in matchups where they are dead, which allows up to run several situational answers we wouldn't otherwise. Discarding spells to power Drakes can also be relevant at times.
Lightning Strike
Premium burn. The majority of the time you are going to want to use these as control spells. I basically never point these at the opponent's face unless a win is imminent.
Sinister Sabotage
Counter target spell, a classic. Yes the surveil is 100% better than the 2 damage Ionize provides in this deck, please don't suggest Ionize over Sabotage. Surveiling a Jump-Start spell into the graveyard is pure gas and even binning an irrelevant spell powers up Drakes.
Fiery Cannonade
The early meta will be heavily defined by aggressive decks like mono-red and boros. Fiery Cannonade is the only reason we have a reasonable matchup. I have gotten some insane X-for-1's with Cannonade, MVP. Knowing when to Cannonade and when to hold it will make or break many matchups. Even in dead matchups this will not clog up your hand as you can discard it to Chart a Course or jump-start.
Sideboard
Dive Down
Comes in vs. removal heavy decks or where protecting Niv is vital.
Fiery Cannonade
Comes in vs. aggressive decks, vital conditional sweeper for these matchups.
Lava Coil
Comes in vs. aggressive decks and where the extra damage is relevant (*cough* Steel Leaf Champion *cough*)
Ral, Izzet Viceroy
Comes in vs. control decks that don't have a lot of ways to pressure planeswalkers. I'm not in love with Ral TBH but he's here for now.
Expansion // Explosion
Comes in vs. control decks. Expansion can allow you to win counter wars and randomly copying other spells can be relevant. Explosion is a great way to climb back into grindfest games. Every time I consider cutting this for a Negate or Disdainful Stroke I have a game where Explosion is MVP and reconsider. That said it's entirely possible Disdainful Stroke is a better choice especially if mono-green or Doom Whisperer end up being a significant part of the meta.
Niv-Mizzet, Parun
Niv is MVP in control matchups for obvious reasons. If you can untap with a Niv it becomes very hard to lose vs. UW control as long as you don't attack into Settle the Wreckage or Seal Away. When I land a Niv in those matchups I just sit back and grind them out with card advantage and his burn effect. They still need to keep mana open for these spells though so you can't just freely attack in which usually strains their resources to the breaking point.
Time of Ice
Testing this vs. mono-green and midrange decks with multiple creatures I can't answer easily with burn to give myself a little breathing room while I establish control over the game. So far it's been good but I still need more testing to understand how it truly affects these matchups.
Sorcerous Spyglass
Miser answer to planeswalkers and random problematic permanents. Most UW control decks I see don't have a ton of answers to this post board naming Teferi and the few they do have they would usually rather be using to answer threats.
Firemind's Research
Needs more testing but so far this has been really good vs. control if it sticks early and of course late game we can always pitch it to jump-start. On 5 counters it kills some of the most problematic control cards on site (Teferi, Hero of Dominaria, Ral, Izzet Viceroy, Lyra Dawnbringer, Niv-Mizzet, Parun, Karn, Scion of Urza, Nicol Bolas, the Ravager, etc).
I didn't say I wanted or would agree with those bannings just that I would be about 0% surprised because WotC manages the Modern banned list with sissy fingers and kid gloves. Storm can go off turn 3, is pretty consistent turn 4, has had many elements banned in the past, and had the highest win % of any deck at the Modern PT this year. Pod has been putting up a lot of high placings recently and was over 1/2 of the top 8 in Richmond, it's better than most of the cards currently on the banned list and seems to be the kind of all purpose tutor/card advantage/combo enabler all in one they don't want in the format.
In the end I don't think anything will be banned, and I certainly hope Storm isn't banned as I've been playing it a lot and plan to take it to the GP in May. If it is I will probably just say **** Modern for another 2 years like I'd been doing up until PT Valencia.
Sword of the Meek
Grave-Troll
Cards I wouldn't be surprised to see banned.
Pod
Pyromancer Ascension
BBE will not be unbanned. It hasn't even been on the list 1.5 years and we are not far removed from stale Jund dominance era which no one wants to return to.
I disagree. The deck is actually amazingly consistent. Granted I've been running a slightly different configuration with 3x Looting and 4x Ravings instead of 3x Ravings and 4x Scour. Wasn't very pleased with Scour as many times it was just draw 1 for U when I needed more. Not to mention SB games when I'm digging for my Echoing Truth to win from under a Rule of Law and Scour manages to bin my one out and basically end the game. The deck is explosive vs. decks without disruption and vs. decks with heavy disruption you often have inevitability and just overrun them with card advantage and superior filter late game.
The deck also lets you outplay opponents. It is certainly not the Belcher of Modern that would be Ad Nauseum, or better yet All-in Breach/Vengence. Belcher and other glass canons are all-in decks for maniacs, Modern storm gives you lots of room to maneuver around opponents. If you are playing every match like you are goldfishing at home be prepared to be disappointed with the deck.
I've won many games without comboing out on turn 3-4, especially after board when you have access to Bolts. Many creature decks will SB heavily diluting their threats which allows you to sideboard into Bolts, Angers, Shatterstorms, and maybe even Empties (I don't bring them in vs. Pod or Affinity but most other creature decks I think it's right) and just draw out the game forever and win through inevitability.
The worst matchup by far is Faeries which has a fastish clock and infinite disruption. Luckily this deck is not very popular and likely a poor meta call at most events. Every other matchup feels to be about 40-45% at worst (possible exception Hatebears and maybe Jund, need more testing and lists seem to very greatly). Meanwhile the deck has many matchups that are often virtual byes and due to its explosive nature and scary SB options (and the fact it makes up only roughly 5-6% of the overall metagame) has a lot of game vs. most of the top tier.
I've been to 4 events in the past month and only failed to hit prize support once (and I was 5th on breakers there). I've lost more matches to misplays then to the deck having any issues. Not counting Byes or IDs my match record with the deck is a respectable 12-4-1 two of those loses and the draw I chalk up to play errors on my part.
When playing Storm you really need to know how to play to your outs. When to go for it and when to wait one more turn to make sure you have it. How to play into and around your opponents hate when appropriate. How to Git Probe your opponent and set them up to use their resources in a certain way so you can turn around and punish them once they no longer have those resources. When to setup a non-lethal Grapeshot or Empty to stall the board so you can rebuild. Storm has a huge decision tree, I think a lot of people who lose with the deck blame it on consistency when in reality it's possible they made a mistake perhaps early in the game which caught up with them later and in reality they could be winning games with skill they are instead losing and blaming luck.
1: Creatures are going to resolve, trust me when I say Spire Golem is insane in monoU. Part of the reason is they drop a couple 2/2's early and you can just leave up counterspell mana knowing when you hit 4 lands you can drop a spire golem and leave a counter up and they can't swing into it without losing a guy.
2: Taking MonoU and trading out Spire Golem for Vapor Snag and Delver for Zephyr Sprite doesn't make your deck any more original or innovative than if I took MonoRed and replaced Lightning Bolt with Shock and Chain Lightning with Volcanic Hammer. You keep saying you don't want to run Delver like you get some originality points for it, but just accept you are playing the same MonoU deck as everyone else at the end of the day. There is room to innovate in MonoU but it's more in the spells and sideboard IMO, the creature base is already damn good at what it does.
Delver doesn't need Brainstorm. In my MonoU deck I run no Brainstorms and Delver flips are not really an issue.
How is Golem win-more vs. anything? What is your plan vs. 2/2 creatures just double block, bounce, and counter them and still win the game? It isn't going to work out like that. In a lot of matchups Golem is the best creature in the deck. The MonoU mirror often comes down to who can stick the most Golems.
Daze can be a blowout but I don't run any. IMO there isn't too much early game now adays people can play that I can't handle so I'd rather run more hard counters that are relevant mid-late game. I've replaced 2x Dazes in my deck with 2x Psychic Barrier and never regretted it.
I think the time where Daze was a top tier counter passed when Invigorate and Empty the Warrens/Grapeshot got banned.