@Rodemy
"I would have stopped the nk if Amy was it?"
......Wait I thought mafia does factional kills in this varient of the genre, how would this help? Unless you mean that she could have been the other carrow in which case... wut.
so fellas
i just confirmed that the mafia team does in fact have to designate a member of their team to carry the nightkill
to what degree do we buy this as a not-mafia slip
They say they come from ToS/ToL, which both have role-related KP
"I don't think Gibbon liked the idea of waiting up there alone for Dumbledore, because he came running back downstairs to rejoin the fight and was hit by a Killing Curse that just missed me."
HBP, pg. 619"
I just realized that Osie made a joke here. Fair play.
------------
Possible kill sources of:
Each Odd Night phase, as a Night action, you may poison a player. (SK Carrow)
Mafia factional kill (assuming it exists)
Jackrito's vigi shot
Possible other Carrow kill, might be even nights only
Possible extra kill potential from mafia?
-D1
Alright so first yeet of the game was Konan, who was Gibbon, Town Vanilla. I'm not going to sit here and try to figure this nonsense out, it was a yeet of a slot that had just replaced out and people were being silly.
Then we had, for N1 kills;
Fulcrum the Carrow SK Poisoner
Whisper, our now returned Riddle
and ZDS, Avery the Town aligned Gravedigger
Personally, I consider both Fulcrum and Whisper to be very experienced players who hold a lot of sway, and that opinion at least seems to bear out across sites?
Given that there is (probably?) no rolecop stuff here for the N1 actions that would determine where a kill should go before actions were submitted, I would assume both of these players were killed due to their potential influence on the game.
ZDS I have no goddamn clue tbh. They were marked as V/LA in Osie's modposts the entirety of D1, and I don't recall anything specific about them at all, beyond that people kept abbreviating their username and it took me a while before I auto-translated it.
-D2
Tubba was modkilled, le shrug.
Deadbananas was yeeted, another replacement that was yeeted day of, was Town IC/Upgrader
We got Whisper back, so yay!
N2 kills were Jackrito the Town "(I do all the things but might not get to choose which, and I can only do it once, but) I did shoot a guy"; and Sloth who was apparently Town Puppy, except they were actually Town Alignment Cop.
Jack shot..... ZDS. I still don't know why this was the shot but ok, maybe Jack wanted to RB them instead or something. I would assume that scum knew Jack wasn't theirs, same for SKs, and therefore yeet the vigilante-role who might be lying about not being able to NK again.
Sloth (reading this backwards)....played around with TerRaine and Lagoon, was offended that they would be read as scum with Orange (...I think?), was having issues sounding out TerRaine, voted DeadBananas, didn't like my posts on D2....
Oh, they were becoming one of the leading voices in the thread. Rhand was voting them, but I'm not seeing a whole lot else against them that people would seem likely to heavily consider. Guessing this is the reason for their death N2.
-D3
Starling lynch, but WAIT, it was Axelrod all along!
N3 kills are are Rhand, Town Doc, but WAIT, he was Town Riddle this time!
Also WakeMeUp, Town Vanilla.
At this point there actually seems to be some chance that a mafia role cop could possibly influence the decisions here, technically they could N2 as well but I figure that unless there's more than one of them it would be unlikely to shift things too far, barring a lucky target N1.
However since the kills were a sudo-confirmed Riddle by daychat, and a vanilla townie, I would assume that any role copping was either at targets who died before N3, or simply found less attractive targets than these two which.... is weird if so.
Also this is assuming there's a maf cop at all which is a shot in the dark itself so.... eh?
...Would Whisper have flipped actual alignment if they died again? Like this sorta confirms them anyway, Rhand dying, but i guess it's still in question technically.... I dunno, I think I would have gone for Whisper instead in mafia's shoes, if the earlier logic of leading voices is true. Maybe I just don't know Rhand as well as I know Whisper.
WakeMeUp doesn't make sense as a leading voice, a hidden PR (unless they crumbed it and I didn't notice but someone else did), a confirmed town, someone not being scumread by at least some people, a rolecop catch, or being overly active.
I suppose being scumread is probably the reason? Maybe mafia thought they were the Carrow, or the Carrow thought they were mafia. Nobody is claiming having shot otherwise so... process of elimination I guess. *shrug*
Okay I have two issues with this
1. What leads you to spend a decent chunk of time focusing on a Mafia Role Cop in particular? Considering none of the kills except for Sloth have been on unclaimed Town PRs, it does seem weird to jump there so readily.
2. That's cool and all, but I'm specifically seeking your insight on which kill each night you think is scum, and which you think is Carrow - unless you believe there's unclaimed town KP as well, but at this point I'm personally not feeling that one to be likely. As such, I'd appreciate if you would look over Jackrito/Sloth and Rhand/WMU and put forward which faction you think would have been most likely to carry out each kill, as well as your reasons for believing so. This isn't some sort of "gotcha" where I have something to pull on you - I'm just trying to get into your headspace, and this feels like the best middle ground to meet you on. Sound good to you?
i assume triss would shoot... i have no idea, actually, but not star given she probably needs the PoE buffer
and i'd need to reread to see who star would shoot but certainly not herself lol
Why would anybody shoot star
Star just gets lynched today in pretty much every world besides a greencheck, which really shouldn't even happen because TerRaine/Triss/Terry would all make better cop targets
If the scum is dying anyways, why kill them and put yourself at risk?
if you're carrow and you think to HAVE to hit a wolf to have a chance, you might wanna shoot star if you don't think you need the PoE buffer
which maybe only makes sense if the carrow is someone deeper like lagoon?
idk though
I addressed this but literally the only possible SK that would be deep enough to justify that is me
Even lagoon has no reason to do so when it always saves them a day from the lynch and they have no reason to fear the nightkill
i assume triss would shoot... i have no idea, actually, but not star given she probably needs the PoE buffer
and i'd need to reread to see who star would shoot but certainly not herself lol
Why would anybody shoot star
Star just gets lynched today in pretty much every world besides a greencheck, which really shouldn't even happen because TerRaine/Triss/Terry would all make better cop targets
If the scum is dying anyways, why kill them and put yourself at risk?
Like
From the SK's point of view
The absolute best case scenario is to kill a scum without putting themselves at risk of being lynched
Unless the SK is exactly me and I'm afraid of being, like, spk'd or fear-killed over some of the vague statements I've made regarding my role, the SK knows the Mafia are never going to attack them at night over the mechconfirmed town
So why would they ever kill Starling and risk the town snaps onto them next? Even goo, who I think is safest amongst the non-clears, has no reason to do that when they could shoot literally anywhere else in the PoE and still see a scum lynch tomorrow with no risk to themselves should somebody re-evaluate
Or they could just go for the people essentially giving out BPVs
Both kills last night are way better for literally any possible SK to make than a Starling kill would have been
Just lock him in tbh, I highly doubt we ever get the chance to seriously re-eval him anyways if the situation is as dire numbers-wise as you seem to think it is
i assume triss would shoot... i have no idea, actually, but not star given she probably needs the PoE buffer
and i'd need to reread to see who star would shoot but certainly not herself lol
Why would anybody shoot star
Star just gets lynched today in pretty much every world besides a greencheck, which really shouldn't even happen because TerRaine/Triss/Terry would all make better cop targets
If the scum is dying anyways, why kill them and put yourself at risk?
Trust me, I want starling to be scum as much as anyone, but can someone recap for me why the flips mean Starling is for sure scum?
It's not the flips, it's their actions that damn them
Town never relies on a Neutral that has hinted they may die in their place hard enough to completely avoid giving legacy reads until directly called out on it
It's the inverse of deadbananas - post-hammer, he made it obvious he was town. Starling did the opposite and clammed up.
Also, them essentially no-showing thus far is NAGL either, but I suppose that may not be that unusual in longform games
@triss how many FM games have you been scum in
goo is definitely less townie on the whole
1. What leads you to spend a decent chunk of time focusing on a Mafia Role Cop in particular? Considering none of the kills except for Sloth have been on unclaimed Town PRs, it does seem weird to jump there so readily.
2. That's cool and all, but I'm specifically seeking your insight on which kill each night you think is scum, and which you think is Carrow - unless you believe there's unclaimed town KP as well, but at this point I'm personally not feeling that one to be likely. As such, I'd appreciate if you would look over Jackrito/Sloth and Rhand/WMU and put forward which faction you think would have been most likely to carry out each kill, as well as your reasons for believing so. This isn't some sort of "gotcha" where I have something to pull on you - I'm just trying to get into your headspace, and this feels like the best middle ground to meet you on. Sound good to you?
Sad
Would have been a really funny claim to "protect his family" immediately after hammering a claimed Malfoy
oh well
did deadbananas flavor-claim before Starling hammered
why have a standard text if it's non-standard results
why not just give everyone unique flavor
Even lagoon has no reason to do so when it always saves them a day from the lynch and they have no reason to fear the nightkill
From the SK's point of view
The absolute best case scenario is to kill a scum without putting themselves at risk of being lynched
Unless the SK is exactly me and I'm afraid of being, like, spk'd or fear-killed over some of the vague statements I've made regarding my role, the SK knows the Mafia are never going to attack them at night over the mechconfirmed town
So why would they ever kill Starling and risk the town snaps onto them next? Even goo, who I think is safest amongst the non-clears, has no reason to do that when they could shoot literally anywhere else in the PoE and still see a scum lynch tomorrow with no risk to themselves should somebody re-evaluate
Or they could just go for the people essentially giving out BPVs
Both kills last night are way better for literally any possible SK to make than a Starling kill would have been
Just lock him in tbh, I highly doubt we ever get the chance to seriously re-eval him anyways if the situation is as dire numbers-wise as you seem to think it is
Star just gets lynched today in pretty much every world besides a greencheck, which really shouldn't even happen because TerRaine/Triss/Terry would all make better cop targets
If the scum is dying anyways, why kill them and put yourself at risk?
Town never relies on a Neutral that has hinted they may die in their place hard enough to completely avoid giving legacy reads until directly called out on it
It's the inverse of deadbananas - post-hammer, he made it obvious he was town. Starling did the opposite and clammed up.
Also, them essentially no-showing thus far is NAGL either, but I suppose that may not be that unusual in longform games
anyways I'ma finish out my work day
I've kinda let all three slots skate by and that stops today