So I'm going to spell this out.
I am going to show why peasant cubes with a primary focus of maintaining a competitive environment (by minimizing luck to the most reasonable degree) should not run loxadon warhammer.
All the percentages given are for turn seven on the draw. Any miscalculations are due to me doing it all in my head at noon (i usually go to bed at 6 am).
This post is massive. I'm sorry. This is very, long and very thorough.
So.
Here we go.
Let me start by saying that the games where you don't draw warhammer don't count when we talk about how good it is. Obviously. I don't even know how Calibretto counted that as an argument.
But now that we are on the topic, the games where I dont draw hammer but you have the naturalize (24% by turn 7), you are now holding a (likely) dead card. Think about it. I get to run a card which will quite often singlehandedly win games when it goes unanswered, which forces you to run naturalize, which means you take a virtual mulligan in 24% of your games (which is more than half of the 40% of the time you draw naturalize). Your deck effectively gets worse as to not get blown out by the 16% of games where you and I both have these two cards. This should register as a serious problem.
Again, let's run the scenario where I play and equip and swing with the hammer once, and you follow up with a disenchant effect on your following turn. Let's say I put it on a 3/2 (fair enough). That's a 12 point life swing. Then you use your answer. So we one for one, but I get to change the life totals by 60% of our starting values in one turn. That's not absurd? That's the equivalent of a colorless card being a kill spell or a discard spell while moonlighting as two lightning helixes to the dome. What?
And that's just for one turn!
A second turn is equivalent to starting the game at 32 with you at 8, for 1 unanswered permanent and 6 mana spent in installments. Insane.
You can kill one guy or two, but without a concrete answer or unimaginable board advantages, the card will get to attack. That is inevitable in all but the worst of cases. When the card gets to contribute the numbers are just too great.
So the answer then becomes "draft and run two naturalize effects in every draft minimum, just in case"?
That doesn't sound close to reasonable.
But let's see.
Three colors have these effects, so in about half of my drafts exactly 1 of my colors has me covered. so let's see... about 420 card cube... we use 113 cards to draft between 2 people... Not counting the first let's say 3 picks when colors are open (which cuts 38 cards from counting as cards in "My Color so my opponent isn't liable to take them" as opposed to "All Colors are Open so I rely on nothing"), so we are down to 80 cards that potentially have a card in my color that blows up the hammer. Green has the most answers (7 I believe) so let's go with green. 7 makes up 1/60th of the cube, which means I'd be lucky to see a single answer (which is mathematically insufficient at dealing with the hammer, as Ive illustrated). I'd have to more than double the number of direct answers in order for my G/B or G/U deck to reasonably get two answers. (I'd only have to add a couple to those three colors to make any naya pair consistently deal with it).
What about a traditional draft? well now I don't have color uniqueness anymore, so prioritizing artifact hate is a necessity. Since we all have to snap up the first two pieces of artifact hate we see in whatever color one is in to make sure we don't lose to this card, you can only count on the cards you open. That's 45 cards, unless other players passing to you meet that two card quota, saturating themselves. Any argument stating that I can reasonably wait for these cards to get passed to me is contradictory to the objective we are addressing (do not lose to the auto lose card) since everyone is theoretically trying to avoid "not drafting enough answers", which would then be their fault by your definition. So by this train of thought, I'd have to make sure everyone can get 2 pieces in enough drafts to be statistically relevant (since nobody wants to risk automatically losing and having it be thier fault), which in a 6 man would mean 12 pieces spread within 3 colors. 45(number of cards per player per draft) x 6(maximum players my cube has ever drafted with) is 270: about 64% of my cube. So I'd need about 20 pieces of direct hate in the main body of the cube to supply all of these people on a perfectly average day, which is 7 pieces per color. I may be able to stretch and name 7 peices of artifact hate in red worth cubing. But certainly not in white. Can you?
And that is just on an average spread. Once one or two pieces don't show up, whoops, its the cubes fault that someone didn't get their quota. Three? Cubes fault. So I have to dig around and find two or three or four or five or six extra pieces, just so the only person I can blame is the player who drafted incorrectly? So the hammer is fair?
No, the number of direct answers will never be high enough to effectively combat this equipment in a competitive game. Someone will be left out, even of they 100% prioritize the hate, and when they lose to hammer it becomes "the cubes fault", by your definitions. This is mathematically unacceptable. Calling out luck as a fall guy in this scenario is counterproductive to making the cube the most skill intensive format. If I can snap pick a card and "automatically" win whatever percentage of drafts the acidic slime didnt show up in the pool when the opponent was in green, then that is unacceptable as far as competitive balance and gamesmanship is concerned.
What about Black Blue? A player can't always have counterspell mana up. And the "run enough kill spell" option is misguided logic. If you can play enough kill spells to neutralized the hammer, then by extention, either
A: you are playing enough kill spells to neutralize any deck (barring the rare shroud creatures), which means something unhealthy happened in the cube.
or
B: they drew in the far low side of their amount of creatures (which happens) and you drew a great portion of removal (which happens). At which point the game becomes inherently noncompetetive from the start (like keeping a three landed and not drawing one for days) is a bit hard to track, however, and remains an asterisk on this case against the hammer.
However, considering a normal distribution of resources by both sides, killing enough guys and curving out in a timely fashion to outpace the equipment is not a likely scenario (assuming there are more creature generating cards in the cube than there is removal, as it certainly is)
I keep track of all this stuff. Data is my thing. In games that aren't going to be lost due to mana problems or where there is literally no card in the cube that can turn the game around (which is what I've been referring to as a "competitive game") the card very often wins the game just by being used for a single turn, and is close to 100% if it gets two swings. I check. I check all reasonable variables. It takes the competition out of the game too often to count as fair. The games where it doesn't. generally some unfair set of circumstances happened to the player with the hammer it it got beaten by a specified hate card (which, I reiterate, is not a common enough occurrence to stand as its own argument for the inclusion of the artifact).
Unlike sprout swarm or capsize (two other notorious overbearing cards), this card doesn't have multiple types of foils. Sprout swarm won't beat trample or fliers, and can lose to late game discard or late counterspells. Capsize can be countered by removing the target, or maybe they have too many men to put 6 mana into it turn after turn and you fall behind. But you can't force them to discard the hammer post-buyback. You can't counter it once the window passes. There is hardly any army that outraces another army with half the firepower but that has +3/+0 trample and lifelink on its side. And you can't expect to kill all of their men (otherwise you'd win every game ever). You can either hope to get the 40% on your one answer (or around 70% on two answers), or you can hope your opponent gets screwed. If all that does not count as grossly overpowered and warping then I don't know what does. At all.
I'm just giving you relevant numbers and objective facts and extracting a conclusion.
Point A: One turn with an active hammer will on average swing life totals by 50-60%, which is massively game changing and may singlehandedly decide the game right there. Two turns is unacceptable.
Conclusion A: This needs to be answered.
Point B: A deck with one answer will only have the answer 40% of the time as that player sees his 14th card of the game. So 60% of the time hammer goes unanswered when drawn and equipped. This leads to many games where hammer is involved and it takes over. 40% is not enough.
Conclusion B: Decks need more answers.
Point C: There is no way to effectively supply decks with two answers, even if players prioritize artifact hate higher than anything else. It is just numerically unsound given what cards exist. If I lower the number of answers (to where we have them now) some players just won't see enough of them (which gets labeled as the cubes fault).
Conclusion D: Shrink the cube considerably so the proportion of answers is mathematically sound, or just remove the hammer and avoid the situation altogether.
The argument that "a card isn't too strong, the environment just isn't constructed enough to deal with it" is wrong. Cards can and were printed that are beyond the realm of reason. Thankfully, most weren't at our rarity level. What if ancestral was printed at uncommon or common like the rest of the cycle? Bitterblossom? I'd ban them both in a heartbeat (after playing with blossom, of course). If those examples arent strong enough, I'm sure I can find more. What I'm saying is that there is an imaginary line we drew in the sand with the power level of the cubes we have, and sometimes cards were snuck over that line thanks to the color of a symbol on the right, and how many of them were printed. If I don't monitor that, then I'm not doing my job when I set out to create the most strategic format possible.
We all use anecdotes and stories and experiences because they are engaging, fun, and often enough reflect the real world. It's an easy resource. But nothing in this game, nothing at all, trumps numbers. Period. Anything else, any anecdote, story, memory, or experience does not matter as much as statistics. That is an immutable truth. If your cube is more geared towards "cool powerful cards" or "nostalgia" or any other nonquantifiable thing, then the numbers don't matter as much because the gauges are in another realm. But if you value skill and competition above all else, then math is all that matters. Since my cube cares about achieving as close to perfect game balance that can be achieved with Magic, cards that strip competition from games and strip options from drafts get banned. Sol ring did. Strip mine did. And so too does loxadon warhammer.
I know I'll still get backlash for this, no matter how honestly the figures speak for themselves. At worst, I hope future cube builders come across this post and realize that there is no such thing as a sacred cow.
ugh I meant tattermunge witch, not maniac. I keep doing that.
As for the hammer, the problem is that the opposing player has to have an answer right now. I've upped the answers as time has passed but it doesn't seem to matter quite enough.
Even if I get to draft a direct answer, I have to draw it (which for one card by turn seven is less than 40%) and have to have not used it on anything else relevant, like a bonesplitter, treetop village, or oblivion ring.
If it is answered the turn after it equips, that isn't usually enough. A ten or twelve point life swing is all one attack needs, and with a one for one target painted on its head, the card is murderous and generally nuts.
Worse yet, is that nobody let's it pass anymore, unless there's something along the lines of crystal shard open. Even then.... it just eliminates the choice which takes away from the draft experience. All it took was a white blue deck with a hinder, force spike, disenchant, and faiths fetters (plus a ponder to find them) to make me conclude that the hammer is just too good. That deck lost to the hammer every time it was cast except for when disenchant blasted it the turn it equipped. The game state swings were just too far reaching.
As for the red looting card, every hand that isn't a one or six lander is instantly keepable (practically speaking). On the draw? Snap keep thanks to my mulligan in a can. 16 lands doesn't change the numbers by That much to increase the probability of drawing the hand you described by a whole lot(which is the only hand Im tossing that I may not have if this was a basic instead).
The red in my cube contributes to ramping decks a lot, and you can blame rolling thunder for that. Once I get kaerveks torch it'll be even better. Also, I have quite a few cards that this deck loves, like pyroclasms and firemaw kavu.
Fume spitter vs fanatic isn't even close. One to the dome is not a factor when one compares win percentages: the difference between 19 and 20 is insignificant. But how many times is there an enemy creature with power equal to your dude's toughness? almost if not every game. Problem creature beating you to death? often enough, and with the black card you can slow it down if need be. The rare briarhorn? Ruins mogg fanatic, doesn't always ruin fume spitter. The rare tez gambit? kill an X/2. The rare moment where you had to tap out, but were able to use fume spitter to compliment next turns removal spell (saving some damage in the process)? why not. Turn off Redcap? How about making the first shot by Redcap only 1 damage? What if someone runs spikeshot goblin? My cube runs mutagenic growth (which had been great), darksteel sentinel, jodah's avenger and still has safe passage. I can go on and on, and These All Add Up. Rare conditions that coagulate into an overall advantage, separating the gap between the two little by little until I feel compelled to write practically an essay about it. One to the dome being the difference between winning a game and losing it is about as likely as stopping one to your dome winning a game (which is what fume spitter can do) so what else does mogg fanatic bring? Turn on bloodthirst? I guess...
If it wasn't for all of the little nuances that give fume spitter more opportunities to be relevant, it'd be looking at the axe too, potentially. But that card is as flexible as you can get for one black mana.
And as for the sign outs, its practically without time limit. I've tested, and virtually no time has to pass. its almost vindictive. This was the seventh attempt to post this and it finally, randomly, got through.
To be honest, I'd probably play it every time either over a land or as card #41.
Think about it. Would I rather have a 2 land hand, this, and four cards, or a 3 land hand and four cards? It seems pretty close from a topical point of view.
When you get to turn 7-9 and youre beginning to hold lands, this is a 1 mana divination. Were both of those cards garbage? Thats fine, four mana Tidings...
I'd go as far as to say that it is almost as good as Ponder, with some potential upside and downside to go with it. Card advantage/parity can take a hike when my card Quality Skyrockets over the course of a game. UR control? All day. Gelectrode has a new best friend.
I just ran a draft and ended up with a GR ramp deck. I would have loved to see one of these to throw those extra harrows and Sakura tribe elders under the bus for more Pelakka Wurm action.
My black has a heavy reanimation element to it. Turn one, cast this card, turn two, unearth Shambling remains? Or Animate dead a fatty? How could I not.
~~UPDATE~~
Tattermunge maniac is still being extremely relevant
Loxadon Warhammer is still begging me to cut it on the grounds of being too warping.
I'm thinking about cutting the Black Honden, but leaving the others. The black honden is just so bad... I wish it cost 3... Besides, it really is just any combination of the other four that win the game (GW combo is demoralizing), this card barely has any impact.
Mogg fanatic has actually been underperforming. Really badly. I don't know what to do, but he looks ready to be cut.
Fume spitter is much better than Mogg fanatic. It might have been you, Calibretto, who said the goblin was better, but that is just not the case. Kitchen. Finks.
Coalition Honor guard is nuts.
I had to cut my baby, Momentary blink. Shelter punched, kicked and just pretty much outclassed it out of the cube. I mean, yes, evoking and blinking mulldrifter is an auto win and all... but... there were just so many times where I go through my deck, see just mulldrifter and lone missionary, and do the math. Mistmeadow witch came in instead. One of the two can actually outrace centaur glade (I should get into comedy, saying s#!t like that).
Ah, but kidding aside, mistmeadow witch is very oppressive and on your sixth land drop is a complete Jerk. I may switch back, but it seems unlikely.
~~~~~~
My phone is now habitually signing me out of Salvation whenever I go to respond. I don't know if thatll ever fix itself, but in the meantime, I'm only going to be able to post from my gf's laptop. Keep the thread alive guys, I should be back to regular posting when school starts up again.
Stormfront Pegasus is very, very good. You need one.
Akrasan squire does a much better job of winning the game than soul warden. I wouldn't pay 1 mana to gain 5 life, which is pretty much what you get. 6? 7? I'm still not happy with a card that needs help to actually deal with opposing 2/2's. Akrasan squire can hit for 2 or 4 and then stay back and let your next man beat in bigger than your opponent's blocker can trade with. Think about akrasan squire into stormfront Pegasus; 2, 5, 8... He applies a decent amount of pressure for a mere 1 mana.
Lone missionary is a decent card. 2/1s for 1C with an ability are always worth looking at. Suture priest is an alright creature, but the difference between 2 power and 1 is just too notable, and since both cards serve similar purposes, the ability to trade in combat should be the deciding factor here.
Shelter causes a lot of blowouts, and is one of the only 2 for 1s for 2 mana in the game. It's amazing really, when you play it the game is just Better for you now. It's as though your opponent never drew that answer you were worried about. It's as though the board actually isn't in a stalemate anymore, so swing in with your best man. It works.
Kor cartograper is, in a word, incidental. 4 mana for a 2/2 is obviously poor. I wouldn't pay 2 mana for that, obviously. a rampant growth that only gets plains, and only late in the game? Not on my to do list. So when you put the two together you get one big "meh". Occasionally, its nice... but when your opponent is casting Foresee and finding the best cards in their deck, or blastoderm and putting you on the green mile, you'll feel really outgunned with your minuscule advancement on the board. Cut it.
Loxadon partisan wouldn't be good enough at 3W, and 5 mana is just plain ugly. I don't see a Raise the alarm in here, or any other tokens either. This costs far too much to not have any random moments of greatness.
Auramancer requires too much work to be good. I'm sorry, I mean respectable, a 3 mana 2/2 that is only really going to be cast after turn 6 is never my definition of good.
I don't think gossamer chains is good. You pay mana over and over again to not make your board any better, while your opponent gets to apply the pressure.
Why are you forcing yourself to run cyclers and flankers? So many cards with cycling are overcosted or underwhelming. Let's take the protection guys at 2 cmc. When the protection is there, you have a killable forced worship. when the protection is irrelevant, you get to play with one less playable in your deck and 2 less mana for a turn. This is dragging the color down. Diluting it.
As for the flankers, you get to pay way too much mana for way too little again. At 3 mana, Blue is evoking mulldrifter, black is casting liliana's spectre, and red is blowing up your one and two drop with arc lightning. White? White gets to play a 2/2 that can give itself vigilance for more mana? Or a 2/2 that wishes it was just a 2/2 flier in knight of valor? Why does the color have to be weak to fit a theme?
You may want to shift the ratio closer to having even more creatures than noncreatures. Stand Firm isn't having as much of an effect on winning the game as say.. a lowly Chapel Geist (idk why that's what I thought of). You could also consider shrinking the cube a bit to cut the worst cards.
If he dropped a G out of the cost, had it come in as a 2/2 that could grow into a 4/4, and swapped trample for shroud, would that be enough?
there's no reason why browbeat style cards as a concept are 100% a lost cause, they just have to be absolutely nuts. Like... broken.
See, Muse, the problem then becomes that you're running dream stalker and reality acid and its not planar chaos timespiral limited. dream stalker is outdone by quite a few walls early on and getting a slow blink isn't quite good enough later for cube inclusion imo.
reality acid is nuts next to vedalken mastermind, but that'd be the best you can do (and I cut him again recently)
I just want to point out that there is no real reason why cheap cascade cards should be better than more expensive ones. obviously wizards decided that the "fair" three drops would have virtually no effect on their own, and the power levels of every one look like they were thrown at a dartboard blindfolded. It's really card by card.
I think cascade "costs" about a mana and a half to get on cards that are good enough to be cubed but not so good that it is broken. Look at how much better enlisted wurm would have to be to become an auto include in traditional cubes and you'll get my point. Vigilance? Probably not enough. Vigilance trample? Maybe. But at that point the card is almost worth about 4.5 mana without cascade (5 mana is too high, but 4 mana would be godlike). Bloodbraid elf without cascade would cost about JUST under 1GR (as evidenced by rip clan crasher), since GR would be too good (that card would be bananas. mmm.)
Violent outburst? that ability costs... less than a green mana without cascade, so it sucks. Ardent light (i think) costs about W (akrasan squire without vulnerability but without 2 damage) so the card is underpar but not 100% awful. Maelstrom nexus would require you to cast about 3 or 4 cards to pay for itself (using this metric), not even counting the time you wasted or the fact that it is wubrg, so it sucked. Bituminous blast's effect costs about 2 mana, so it is usually a tad overcosted in a vacuum, but the colors are perfect for cascade. You could so often hit a card that is a natural 2 for 1 in Jund/a good cube home it was practically a 3 for 1 85/50% (respectively) of the time thanks to the fortuitous rakdos alignment it was gifted with, which is insanity. And so on...
I hope you can at least partially agree.
Now
Green and blue are the worst colors for cascade, period. A green one drop is waaaaay worse than a red one since at least that can be a bolt or goblin guide and effect the board right now. As previously mentioned, counterspells are obvious blanks and I certainly don't want to hit a ponder with this most days.
Not for 8 mana, sirs and madams.
What about green and blue having better bombs, you say? How many bombs are you running? Enough to matter when conversing about what one is going to cascade into? I hope not. Your Sphinx of jwar isle is not lining up well statistically against the signet, sakura tribe elder, and into the roil you are playing to get there.
Which brings up an interesting point. Big spells exist in decks where you want to live and accelerate mana (most times) Hitting a mind stone or a kodama's reach or even an all star like ray of command with even one cascade turns this 8 mana guy into not worth Eight mana. Using my metric, I'd be paying for 5 mana 7/5 haste without cascade which is nothing more than an underwhelming, but rather large dork with no future outside of a peasant cube. Oh but he can't even go there because of the ridiculous color requirements.
The effect helps his potential compatriots though, which makes him a bit better obviously. if you hit a kavu and a blastoderm I think you win every time (but you usually win games where you play those two anyway, but I digress)
So what we are left with is a card that requires a smattering of luck, 3 colors, and 8 mana. I want to say it could get there, but it is just wildly inconsistent without some mystical/worldly tutor. Both cascades have to be business for this to cut it, or at least one has to be a wurmcoil engine. Even for me that's just too much variance.
Has anyone tried out cavern harpy or fleetfoot panther? both would seem to have lots of friends. I could see cavern harpy generating its own archetype, for one.
He's about as good as we can get at making a kessig wolf run impression.
also, has anyone tried sunhome, fortress of the legion? Or seedcradle witch? or spiteflame witch? Just kidding on that last one, that card isn't. quite good enough.
sadly I'm not running festerboar so I can't give you feedback.
I found a way to extend m cube draft type to include 4 people cleanly, but that still makes only... 3 drafts this year that I've done with more than 2 people. Late picks aren't really a topic for me to give feedback on.
but I really came in this thread tonight to say something special.
You know how when in a movie, there is one kid on the bench for a sports team, and he's surrounded by superstars he becomes the waterboy/ personal foot rub guy/etc? well, that waterboy for me was tattermunge witch.
Coach: "Tin street hooligan isn't performing well lately, probably hungover from partying at bloodbraid's apartment. Dammit Jenkins, we need a replacement, now!"
Jenkins: "Maybe someone in the stands?"
Coach "Genius"
Tm Witch: "Wait, put me in coach. I can do this if you just give me a chance. I've been on the bench all season! just one shot, that's all I ask..."
Coach: (Grumbling) "Grr, ok, but if you **** this up, its back to footrub duty for you! And just the 'recycled' lotion, can't have you wasting the new stuff."
Tm witch: "I = :D"
Announcer: "tattermunge witch has stepped up to the plate to clean it off so the rest of Team Gruul can... wait, that's not a mop in his hand, its a bat! He's actually playing? Didn't Punk'd get cancelled? Where's Ashton Kutcher? Huh, wait... No this is actually happening folks, please stop booing. Now here's the pitch..."
I actually have no idea how to express what tattermunge witch did out there that night... But basically, he won the gold medal by slipping it past the goalie's fingertips and breaking the backboard with a grand slam birdie from his own 40 yardline for match point on the river as mere seconds were left in the third period, using a pool cue.
But seriously, it went like this for my opponents.
Trade situations = opposite of profitable.
Chump blocking = opposite of an option.
Imagine if your cudgel trolls had trample and 6 power. And your blastoderms did too.
Genju of the spires suddenly becomes completely unfair. Random dorks swing in and are essentially unblockable. Bestial menace? I think you grossly mispronounced "game two". I mean, it even swings into guardian of the guildpact. As a two drop, how sick is that?
(perilous myr says hi)
Obviously, I was blown away by the impact it had on the game, and it earned tin street hoologan's spot on the team. I don't think I've ever had a card sneak up on me like that in my life.
~~========~~~~~~~~========~~
also in other news
Halimar wavewatch tore me to shreds. That card does everything you want it to do.
Does anybody know the exact interaction between nettle sentinel and sprout swarm?
Brimstone volley is scary. I was at 10ish, and traded with his man. Volley puts me to 5, and his next play is mnemonic wall. My next play was incessant frowning.
Forbid is occasionally broken, but you know that already.
Dawnglare invoker is also occasionally broken, but hey 8 mana is a ****ton and a ****load.
If you aren't running darksteel sentinel, please try it. Some cards, like guardian of the guildpact, can and do just win the game by existing on the board sometimes. DS isn't quite as common, but it is also a removal spell. Trust me when I say that he is really... really... really frustrating. Especially when I'm trying to win with calciderm.
Solemn offering's stock has gone up a bit in my drafts. Then again, I run hondens and all sorts of other problems many lists may omit.
Timely reinforcements is unreasonable. I'm gonna call it time walk reinforcements from now on.
I think people should run fury charm as a shatter variant. It only has two modes, but it doesn't ever seem dead. I'm looking for one right now.
Thunderstaff is so odd... but it works decently. It sure as hell turned off my squadron hawks.
Shortcutter was in a long time ago, but it is a bad two drop (goblin bushwhacker does a much better job at pushing damage). Crossdress vampire, fits better on the curve, but you get a vanilla 3/2 for 3 at the end and the value just isn't there.
Sadly. Sadly. Sadly... grotag thrasher is more threatening than them. And he isn't very good.
I've been watching the pauper ranking thread like a hawk, and that card is makin appearances there. Same with simian grunts, a card I ran but cut due to not wanting three guys with echo in green. Albino troll is just too good sometimes, and pouncing Jaguar is one of the many cogs that assists my aggro game (especially with nettle sentinel doing nothing useful)
lemme tell you, now that it appears the thread has a mini following, I feel compelled to talk about every detail.
I am going to show why peasant cubes with a primary focus of maintaining a competitive environment (by minimizing luck to the most reasonable degree) should not run loxadon warhammer.
All the percentages given are for turn seven on the draw. Any miscalculations are due to me doing it all in my head at noon (i usually go to bed at 6 am).
This post is massive. I'm sorry. This is very, long and very thorough.
So.
Here we go.
Let me start by saying that the games where you don't draw warhammer don't count when we talk about how good it is. Obviously. I don't even know how Calibretto counted that as an argument.
But now that we are on the topic, the games where I dont draw hammer but you have the naturalize (24% by turn 7), you are now holding a (likely) dead card. Think about it. I get to run a card which will quite often singlehandedly win games when it goes unanswered, which forces you to run naturalize, which means you take a virtual mulligan in 24% of your games (which is more than half of the 40% of the time you draw naturalize). Your deck effectively gets worse as to not get blown out by the 16% of games where you and I both have these two cards. This should register as a serious problem.
Again, let's run the scenario where I play and equip and swing with the hammer once, and you follow up with a disenchant effect on your following turn. Let's say I put it on a 3/2 (fair enough). That's a 12 point life swing. Then you use your answer. So we one for one, but I get to change the life totals by 60% of our starting values in one turn. That's not absurd? That's the equivalent of a colorless card being a kill spell or a discard spell while moonlighting as two lightning helixes to the dome. What?
And that's just for one turn!
A second turn is equivalent to starting the game at 32 with you at 8, for 1 unanswered permanent and 6 mana spent in installments. Insane.
You can kill one guy or two, but without a concrete answer or unimaginable board advantages, the card will get to attack. That is inevitable in all but the worst of cases. When the card gets to contribute the numbers are just too great.
So the answer then becomes "draft and run two naturalize effects in every draft minimum, just in case"?
That doesn't sound close to reasonable.
But let's see.
Three colors have these effects, so in about half of my drafts exactly 1 of my colors has me covered. so let's see... about 420 card cube... we use 113 cards to draft between 2 people... Not counting the first let's say 3 picks when colors are open (which cuts 38 cards from counting as cards in "My Color so my opponent isn't liable to take them" as opposed to "All Colors are Open so I rely on nothing"), so we are down to 80 cards that potentially have a card in my color that blows up the hammer. Green has the most answers (7 I believe) so let's go with green. 7 makes up 1/60th of the cube, which means I'd be lucky to see a single answer (which is mathematically insufficient at dealing with the hammer, as Ive illustrated). I'd have to more than double the number of direct answers in order for my G/B or G/U deck to reasonably get two answers. (I'd only have to add a couple to those three colors to make any naya pair consistently deal with it).
What about a traditional draft? well now I don't have color uniqueness anymore, so prioritizing artifact hate is a necessity. Since we all have to snap up the first two pieces of artifact hate we see in whatever color one is in to make sure we don't lose to this card, you can only count on the cards you open. That's 45 cards, unless other players passing to you meet that two card quota, saturating themselves. Any argument stating that I can reasonably wait for these cards to get passed to me is contradictory to the objective we are addressing (do not lose to the auto lose card) since everyone is theoretically trying to avoid "not drafting enough answers", which would then be their fault by your definition. So by this train of thought, I'd have to make sure everyone can get 2 pieces in enough drafts to be statistically relevant (since nobody wants to risk automatically losing and having it be thier fault), which in a 6 man would mean 12 pieces spread within 3 colors. 45(number of cards per player per draft) x 6(maximum players my cube has ever drafted with) is 270: about 64% of my cube. So I'd need about 20 pieces of direct hate in the main body of the cube to supply all of these people on a perfectly average day, which is 7 pieces per color. I may be able to stretch and name 7 peices of artifact hate in red worth cubing. But certainly not in white. Can you?
And that is just on an average spread. Once one or two pieces don't show up, whoops, its the cubes fault that someone didn't get their quota. Three? Cubes fault. So I have to dig around and find two or three or four or five or six extra pieces, just so the only person I can blame is the player who drafted incorrectly? So the hammer is fair?
No, the number of direct answers will never be high enough to effectively combat this equipment in a competitive game. Someone will be left out, even of they 100% prioritize the hate, and when they lose to hammer it becomes "the cubes fault", by your definitions. This is mathematically unacceptable. Calling out luck as a fall guy in this scenario is counterproductive to making the cube the most skill intensive format. If I can snap pick a card and "automatically" win whatever percentage of drafts the acidic slime didnt show up in the pool when the opponent was in green, then that is unacceptable as far as competitive balance and gamesmanship is concerned.
What about Black Blue? A player can't always have counterspell mana up. And the "run enough kill spell" option is misguided logic. If you can play enough kill spells to neutralized the hammer, then by extention, either
A: you are playing enough kill spells to neutralize any deck (barring the rare shroud creatures), which means something unhealthy happened in the cube.
or
B: they drew in the far low side of their amount of creatures (which happens) and you drew a great portion of removal (which happens). At which point the game becomes inherently noncompetetive from the start (like keeping a three landed and not drawing one for days) is a bit hard to track, however, and remains an asterisk on this case against the hammer.
However, considering a normal distribution of resources by both sides, killing enough guys and curving out in a timely fashion to outpace the equipment is not a likely scenario (assuming there are more creature generating cards in the cube than there is removal, as it certainly is)
I keep track of all this stuff. Data is my thing. In games that aren't going to be lost due to mana problems or where there is literally no card in the cube that can turn the game around (which is what I've been referring to as a "competitive game") the card very often wins the game just by being used for a single turn, and is close to 100% if it gets two swings. I check. I check all reasonable variables. It takes the competition out of the game too often to count as fair. The games where it doesn't. generally some unfair set of circumstances happened to the player with the hammer it it got beaten by a specified hate card (which, I reiterate, is not a common enough occurrence to stand as its own argument for the inclusion of the artifact).
Unlike sprout swarm or capsize (two other notorious overbearing cards), this card doesn't have multiple types of foils. Sprout swarm won't beat trample or fliers, and can lose to late game discard or late counterspells. Capsize can be countered by removing the target, or maybe they have too many men to put 6 mana into it turn after turn and you fall behind. But you can't force them to discard the hammer post-buyback. You can't counter it once the window passes. There is hardly any army that outraces another army with half the firepower but that has +3/+0 trample and lifelink on its side. And you can't expect to kill all of their men (otherwise you'd win every game ever). You can either hope to get the 40% on your one answer (or around 70% on two answers), or you can hope your opponent gets screwed. If all that does not count as grossly overpowered and warping then I don't know what does. At all.
I'm just giving you relevant numbers and objective facts and extracting a conclusion.
Point A: One turn with an active hammer will on average swing life totals by 50-60%, which is massively game changing and may singlehandedly decide the game right there. Two turns is unacceptable.
Conclusion A: This needs to be answered.
Point B: A deck with one answer will only have the answer 40% of the time as that player sees his 14th card of the game. So 60% of the time hammer goes unanswered when drawn and equipped. This leads to many games where hammer is involved and it takes over. 40% is not enough.
Conclusion B: Decks need more answers.
Point C: There is no way to effectively supply decks with two answers, even if players prioritize artifact hate higher than anything else. It is just numerically unsound given what cards exist. If I lower the number of answers (to where we have them now) some players just won't see enough of them (which gets labeled as the cubes fault).
Conclusion D: Shrink the cube considerably so the proportion of answers is mathematically sound, or just remove the hammer and avoid the situation altogether.
The argument that "a card isn't too strong, the environment just isn't constructed enough to deal with it" is wrong. Cards can and were printed that are beyond the realm of reason. Thankfully, most weren't at our rarity level. What if ancestral was printed at uncommon or common like the rest of the cycle? Bitterblossom? I'd ban them both in a heartbeat (after playing with blossom, of course). If those examples arent strong enough, I'm sure I can find more. What I'm saying is that there is an imaginary line we drew in the sand with the power level of the cubes we have, and sometimes cards were snuck over that line thanks to the color of a symbol on the right, and how many of them were printed. If I don't monitor that, then I'm not doing my job when I set out to create the most strategic format possible.
We all use anecdotes and stories and experiences because they are engaging, fun, and often enough reflect the real world. It's an easy resource. But nothing in this game, nothing at all, trumps numbers. Period. Anything else, any anecdote, story, memory, or experience does not matter as much as statistics. That is an immutable truth. If your cube is more geared towards "cool powerful cards" or "nostalgia" or any other nonquantifiable thing, then the numbers don't matter as much because the gauges are in another realm. But if you value skill and competition above all else, then math is all that matters. Since my cube cares about achieving as close to perfect game balance that can be achieved with Magic, cards that strip competition from games and strip options from drafts get banned. Sol ring did. Strip mine did. And so too does loxadon warhammer.
I know I'll still get backlash for this, no matter how honestly the figures speak for themselves. At worst, I hope future cube builders come across this post and realize that there is no such thing as a sacred cow.
As for the hammer, the problem is that the opposing player has to have an answer right now. I've upped the answers as time has passed but it doesn't seem to matter quite enough.
Even if I get to draft a direct answer, I have to draw it (which for one card by turn seven is less than 40%) and have to have not used it on anything else relevant, like a bonesplitter, treetop village, or oblivion ring.
If it is answered the turn after it equips, that isn't usually enough. A ten or twelve point life swing is all one attack needs, and with a one for one target painted on its head, the card is murderous and generally nuts.
Worse yet, is that nobody let's it pass anymore, unless there's something along the lines of crystal shard open. Even then.... it just eliminates the choice which takes away from the draft experience. All it took was a white blue deck with a hinder, force spike, disenchant, and faiths fetters (plus a ponder to find them) to make me conclude that the hammer is just too good. That deck lost to the hammer every time it was cast except for when disenchant blasted it the turn it equipped. The game state swings were just too far reaching.
As for the red looting card, every hand that isn't a one or six lander is instantly keepable (practically speaking). On the draw? Snap keep thanks to my mulligan in a can. 16 lands doesn't change the numbers by That much to increase the probability of drawing the hand you described by a whole lot(which is the only hand Im tossing that I may not have if this was a basic instead).
The red in my cube contributes to ramping decks a lot, and you can blame rolling thunder for that. Once I get kaerveks torch it'll be even better. Also, I have quite a few cards that this deck loves, like pyroclasms and firemaw kavu.
Fume spitter vs fanatic isn't even close. One to the dome is not a factor when one compares win percentages: the difference between 19 and 20 is insignificant. But how many times is there an enemy creature with power equal to your dude's toughness? almost if not every game. Problem creature beating you to death? often enough, and with the black card you can slow it down if need be. The rare briarhorn? Ruins mogg fanatic, doesn't always ruin fume spitter. The rare tez gambit? kill an X/2. The rare moment where you had to tap out, but were able to use fume spitter to compliment next turns removal spell (saving some damage in the process)? why not. Turn off Redcap? How about making the first shot by Redcap only 1 damage? What if someone runs spikeshot goblin? My cube runs mutagenic growth (which had been great), darksteel sentinel, jodah's avenger and still has safe passage. I can go on and on, and These All Add Up. Rare conditions that coagulate into an overall advantage, separating the gap between the two little by little until I feel compelled to write practically an essay about it. One to the dome being the difference between winning a game and losing it is about as likely as stopping one to your dome winning a game (which is what fume spitter can do) so what else does mogg fanatic bring? Turn on bloodthirst? I guess...
If it wasn't for all of the little nuances that give fume spitter more opportunities to be relevant, it'd be looking at the axe too, potentially. But that card is as flexible as you can get for one black mana.
And as for the sign outs, its practically without time limit. I've tested, and virtually no time has to pass. its almost vindictive. This was the seventh attempt to post this and it finally, randomly, got through.
Think about it. Would I rather have a 2 land hand, this, and four cards, or a 3 land hand and four cards? It seems pretty close from a topical point of view.
When you get to turn 7-9 and youre beginning to hold lands, this is a 1 mana divination. Were both of those cards garbage? Thats fine, four mana Tidings...
I'd go as far as to say that it is almost as good as Ponder, with some potential upside and downside to go with it. Card advantage/parity can take a hike when my card Quality Skyrockets over the course of a game. UR control? All day. Gelectrode has a new best friend.
I just ran a draft and ended up with a GR ramp deck. I would have loved to see one of these to throw those extra harrows and Sakura tribe elders under the bus for more Pelakka Wurm action.
My black has a heavy reanimation element to it. Turn one, cast this card, turn two, unearth Shambling remains? Or Animate dead a fatty? How could I not.
~~UPDATE~~
Tattermunge maniac is still being extremely relevant
Loxadon Warhammer is still begging me to cut it on the grounds of being too warping.
I'm thinking about cutting the Black Honden, but leaving the others. The black honden is just so bad... I wish it cost 3... Besides, it really is just any combination of the other four that win the game (GW combo is demoralizing), this card barely has any impact.
Mogg fanatic has actually been underperforming. Really badly. I don't know what to do, but he looks ready to be cut.
Fume spitter is much better than Mogg fanatic. It might have been you, Calibretto, who said the goblin was better, but that is just not the case. Kitchen. Finks.
Coalition Honor guard is nuts.
I had to cut my baby, Momentary blink. Shelter punched, kicked and just pretty much outclassed it out of the cube. I mean, yes, evoking and blinking mulldrifter is an auto win and all... but... there were just so many times where I go through my deck, see just mulldrifter and lone missionary, and do the math. Mistmeadow witch came in instead. One of the two can actually outrace centaur glade (I should get into comedy, saying s#!t like that).
Ah, but kidding aside, mistmeadow witch is very oppressive and on your sixth land drop is a complete Jerk. I may switch back, but it seems unlikely.
~~~~~~
My phone is now habitually signing me out of Salvation whenever I go to respond. I don't know if thatll ever fix itself, but in the meantime, I'm only going to be able to post from my gf's laptop. Keep the thread alive guys, I should be back to regular posting when school starts up again.
Akrasan squire does a much better job of winning the game than soul warden. I wouldn't pay 1 mana to gain 5 life, which is pretty much what you get. 6? 7? I'm still not happy with a card that needs help to actually deal with opposing 2/2's. Akrasan squire can hit for 2 or 4 and then stay back and let your next man beat in bigger than your opponent's blocker can trade with. Think about akrasan squire into stormfront Pegasus; 2, 5, 8... He applies a decent amount of pressure for a mere 1 mana.
Lone missionary is a decent card. 2/1s for 1C with an ability are always worth looking at. Suture priest is an alright creature, but the difference between 2 power and 1 is just too notable, and since both cards serve similar purposes, the ability to trade in combat should be the deciding factor here.
Shelter causes a lot of blowouts, and is one of the only 2 for 1s for 2 mana in the game. It's amazing really, when you play it the game is just Better for you now. It's as though your opponent never drew that answer you were worried about. It's as though the board actually isn't in a stalemate anymore, so swing in with your best man. It works.
Kor cartograper is, in a word, incidental. 4 mana for a 2/2 is obviously poor. I wouldn't pay 2 mana for that, obviously. a rampant growth that only gets plains, and only late in the game? Not on my to do list. So when you put the two together you get one big "meh". Occasionally, its nice... but when your opponent is casting Foresee and finding the best cards in their deck, or blastoderm and putting you on the green mile, you'll feel really outgunned with your minuscule advancement on the board. Cut it.
Loxadon partisan wouldn't be good enough at 3W, and 5 mana is just plain ugly. I don't see a Raise the alarm in here, or any other tokens either. This costs far too much to not have any random moments of greatness.
Auramancer requires too much work to be good. I'm sorry, I mean respectable, a 3 mana 2/2 that is only really going to be cast after turn 6 is never my definition of good.
I don't think gossamer chains is good. You pay mana over and over again to not make your board any better, while your opponent gets to apply the pressure.
Why are you forcing yourself to run cyclers and flankers? So many cards with cycling are overcosted or underwhelming. Let's take the protection guys at 2 cmc. When the protection is there, you have a killable forced worship. when the protection is irrelevant, you get to play with one less playable in your deck and 2 less mana for a turn. This is dragging the color down. Diluting it.
As for the flankers, you get to pay way too much mana for way too little again. At 3 mana, Blue is evoking mulldrifter, black is casting liliana's spectre, and red is blowing up your one and two drop with arc lightning. White? White gets to play a 2/2 that can give itself vigilance for more mana? Or a 2/2 that wishes it was just a 2/2 flier in knight of valor? Why does the color have to be weak to fit a theme?
You may want to shift the ratio closer to having even more creatures than noncreatures. Stand Firm isn't having as much of an effect on winning the game as say.. a lowly Chapel Geist (idk why that's what I thought of). You could also consider shrinking the cube a bit to cut the worst cards.
there's no reason why browbeat style cards as a concept are 100% a lost cause, they just have to be absolutely nuts. Like... broken.
reality acid is nuts next to vedalken mastermind, but that'd be the best you can do (and I cut him again recently)
I think cascade "costs" about a mana and a half to get on cards that are good enough to be cubed but not so good that it is broken. Look at how much better enlisted wurm would have to be to become an auto include in traditional cubes and you'll get my point. Vigilance? Probably not enough. Vigilance trample? Maybe. But at that point the card is almost worth about 4.5 mana without cascade (5 mana is too high, but 4 mana would be godlike). Bloodbraid elf without cascade would cost about JUST under 1GR (as evidenced by rip clan crasher), since GR would be too good (that card would be bananas. mmm.)
Violent outburst? that ability costs... less than a green mana without cascade, so it sucks. Ardent light (i think) costs about W (akrasan squire without vulnerability but without 2 damage) so the card is underpar but not 100% awful. Maelstrom nexus would require you to cast about 3 or 4 cards to pay for itself (using this metric), not even counting the time you wasted or the fact that it is wubrg, so it sucked. Bituminous blast's effect costs about 2 mana, so it is usually a tad overcosted in a vacuum, but the colors are perfect for cascade. You could so often hit a card that is a natural 2 for 1 in Jund/a good cube home it was practically a 3 for 1 85/50% (respectively) of the time thanks to the fortuitous rakdos alignment it was gifted with, which is insanity. And so on...
I hope you can at least partially agree.
Now
Green and blue are the worst colors for cascade, period. A green one drop is waaaaay worse than a red one since at least that can be a bolt or goblin guide and effect the board right now. As previously mentioned, counterspells are obvious blanks and I certainly don't want to hit a ponder with this most days.
Not for 8 mana, sirs and madams.
What about green and blue having better bombs, you say? How many bombs are you running? Enough to matter when conversing about what one is going to cascade into? I hope not. Your Sphinx of jwar isle is not lining up well statistically against the signet, sakura tribe elder, and into the roil you are playing to get there.
Which brings up an interesting point. Big spells exist in decks where you want to live and accelerate mana (most times) Hitting a mind stone or a kodama's reach or even an all star like ray of command with even one cascade turns this 8 mana guy into not worth Eight mana. Using my metric, I'd be paying for 5 mana 7/5 haste without cascade which is nothing more than an underwhelming, but rather large dork with no future outside of a peasant cube. Oh but he can't even go there because of the ridiculous color requirements.
The effect helps his potential compatriots though, which makes him a bit better obviously. if you hit a kavu and a blastoderm I think you win every time (but you usually win games where you play those two anyway, but I digress)
So what we are left with is a card that requires a smattering of luck, 3 colors, and 8 mana. I want to say it could get there, but it is just wildly inconsistent without some mystical/worldly tutor. Both cascades have to be business for this to cut it, or at least one has to be a wurmcoil engine. Even for me that's just too much variance.
Has anyone tried out cavern harpy or fleetfoot panther? both would seem to have lots of friends. I could see cavern harpy generating its own archetype, for one.
edit
never mind, I'm dumb.
also, has anyone tried sunhome, fortress of the legion? Or seedcradle witch? or spiteflame witch? Just kidding on that last one, that card isn't. quite good enough.
I found a way to extend m cube draft type to include 4 people cleanly, but that still makes only... 3 drafts this year that I've done with more than 2 people. Late picks aren't really a topic for me to give feedback on.
but I really came in this thread tonight to say something special.
You know how when in a movie, there is one kid on the bench for a sports team, and he's surrounded by superstars he becomes the waterboy/ personal foot rub guy/etc? well, that waterboy for me was tattermunge witch.
Coach: "Tin street hooligan isn't performing well lately, probably hungover from partying at bloodbraid's apartment. Dammit Jenkins, we need a replacement, now!"
Jenkins: "Maybe someone in the stands?"
Coach "Genius"
Tm Witch: "Wait, put me in coach. I can do this if you just give me a chance. I've been on the bench all season! just one shot, that's all I ask..."
Coach: (Grumbling) "Grr, ok, but if you **** this up, its back to footrub duty for you! And just the 'recycled' lotion, can't have you wasting the new stuff."
Tm witch: "I = :D"
Announcer: "tattermunge witch has stepped up to the plate to clean it off so the rest of Team Gruul can... wait, that's not a mop in his hand, its a bat! He's actually playing? Didn't Punk'd get cancelled? Where's Ashton Kutcher? Huh, wait... No this is actually happening folks, please stop booing. Now here's the pitch..."
I actually have no idea how to express what tattermunge witch did out there that night... But basically, he won the gold medal by slipping it past the goalie's fingertips and breaking the backboard with a grand slam birdie from his own 40 yardline for match point on the river as mere seconds were left in the third period, using a pool cue.
But seriously, it went like this for my opponents.
Trade situations = opposite of profitable.
Chump blocking = opposite of an option.
Imagine if your cudgel trolls had trample and 6 power. And your blastoderms did too.
Genju of the spires suddenly becomes completely unfair. Random dorks swing in and are essentially unblockable. Bestial menace? I think you grossly mispronounced "game two". I mean, it even swings into guardian of the guildpact. As a two drop, how sick is that?
(perilous myr says hi)
Obviously, I was blown away by the impact it had on the game, and it earned tin street hoologan's spot on the team. I don't think I've ever had a card sneak up on me like that in my life.
~~========~~~~~~~~========~~
also in other news
Halimar wavewatch tore me to shreds. That card does everything you want it to do.
Does anybody know the exact interaction between nettle sentinel and sprout swarm?
Brimstone volley is scary. I was at 10ish, and traded with his man. Volley puts me to 5, and his next play is mnemonic wall. My next play was incessant frowning.
Forbid is occasionally broken, but you know that already.
Dawnglare invoker is also occasionally broken, but hey 8 mana is a ****ton and a ****load.
If you aren't running darksteel sentinel, please try it. Some cards, like guardian of the guildpact, can and do just win the game by existing on the board sometimes. DS isn't quite as common, but it is also a removal spell. Trust me when I say that he is really... really... really frustrating. Especially when I'm trying to win with calciderm.
Solemn offering's stock has gone up a bit in my drafts. Then again, I run hondens and all sorts of other problems many lists may omit.
Timely reinforcements is unreasonable. I'm gonna call it time walk reinforcements from now on.
I think people should run fury charm as a shatter variant. It only has two modes, but it doesn't ever seem dead. I'm looking for one right now.
Thunderstaff is so odd... but it works decently. It sure as hell turned off my squadron hawks.
I think that's all for now.
Sadly. Sadly. Sadly... grotag thrasher is more threatening than them. And he isn't very good.
lemme tell you, now that it appears the thread has a mini following, I feel compelled to talk about every detail.