2019 Holiday Exchange!
A New and Exciting Beginning
The End of an Era
  • posted a message on [[Peasant]] The Peasant Cube Discussion Thread (C/U/)
    nOOb, how is Trophy Hunter running for you? I completely forgot it existed until I saw it in your list and felt the closest thing I can to nostalgia.
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on M21 Previews and discussions
    Prepping my cube for my upcoming draft, I noticed something a little cute that I figured I would share.

    Cytoplast Root-Kin and Wildwood Scourge are a bit of a combo. The former can siphon off counters from the latter for as long as they both shall live.
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on [[Peasant Archetype]] Golgari Graveyard Value
    Did I really think grizzly fate was too good? Maybe I had just been beaten by it a bunch of times in a row or something, because right now my opinion of it is certainly not as high. I can't even figure out what it would be pushing out. Roar of the wurm?
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on Reanimator (Is it too broken?)
    Reanimation is so spotty I only continue to include it because it can be sort of a bonus for cards like looter il-kor, not a standalone strategy.
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on [[Peasant Archetype]] Golgari Graveyard Value
    Much more concise than I could put it myself.
    But is that in the wrong thread?
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on [[Peasant Archetype]] Golgari Graveyard Value
    I have no idea what my rationale was for removing grizzly fate. Did I think it was too game ending? I have to get that in for my next update.
    If anyone somehow notices when I announce my updated list that I forgot to include it, please remind me with a smack on the back of my head.
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on 2 player cube and draft method
    Not gonna lie it's kinda nice to be used as a template for multiple discussions. I really have to update my list so I can feel like I am taking my position in the community more seriously. I promise to do so once my m21 and jumpstart cards come in.

    Phitt is right when he says I have depowered removal more than anything else, but that is partly because it's hard to have a diverse, interesting suite of removal spells without many of them just being worse versions of one another if you include the best of the best. Once upon a time we frequently ran Journey to nowhere alongside Swords to plowshares. Of course, there are better cards and worse cards in magic. But there was something that just felt... distasteful for how there is no situation where if somehow I had to choose between journey and Swords that I would pick journey. So I sorta landed on a B- to B+ tier of power level for my removal spells and tried to balance them around that.

    Nobody noticed, but I am also missing mulldrifter from my list for this reason. Mulldrifer is a card I frequently want to add back in, but then it sorta "invalidates" a card like opportunity or the new shipwreck dowser. By removing mulldrifter, it frees up space for a lot of options to not just be bad mulldrifters.

    Oh, also, I don't run shriekmaw and most other black removal spells because I reaaaally hate referencing the color of my opponent's cards. It feels unbearably arbitrary.

    Curse of Predation is a card that I can imagine being banned, but it has lost enough games somehow (A hiccup like a bad hand or running into a removal spell makes it much much worse.) In limited viewing, I think Song of Freyalise has even given it a run for its money such that I can imagine a deck taking the song over it in "pack 3", which is pretty remarkable.

    I run into a little trouble with effects that really need redundancy for entire decktypes to work (aggro creatures overlap a bunch, as do our 6-7 drops) but I do what I can.

    I want as many cards as possible to be competitive with as many other cards as possible, so long as I don't sacrifice too much by the way of interesting effects or cripple an archetype. I don't exactly love the idea that I don't play with CGR or FTK, but I don't exactly miss them either.
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on [[Peasant]] The Peasant Cube Discussion Thread (C/U/)
    The Archangel is totally absurd and it's not even really close. The number of times it's a 3/3 is only slightly more often than the number of times it's a 7/7.

    Oketra's attendant is better than patron of the valient and the hartebeest, and I can entertain a case for it being *around* competitive with serra angel.

    If you needed to cycle it early, once you embalm it later it is ultimately Gryff Vanguard + 1 toughness, and gryff vanguard is a card we used to consider playing on the low end.

    Frontloading the card draw onto a turn where you needed it more is interesting. It means your average turn to get your flier is moved up by a turn some fraction of the time
    And when you don't cycle it, you draw a 3/3 uncounterable flyer when it dies or is itself countered. That's really not a bad deal.

    I just have a difficult time measuring the relative value of serra angel's common ability to take over with the bird's ability to be somewhat more removal resistant, have a safety valve, and synergy with self-milling. Intuitively I know the angel is better, but I wonder if the gap is not as large as it seems
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on [[Peasant]] The Peasant Cube Discussion Thread (C/U/)
    I actually didn't calculate that there was a 30% chance that you still don't have a third swamp by the time you're 16 cards deep. That went pretty counter to my assumption. So yeah, that side of the graph should have been depressed more.
    I also dropped the ball on checking to see how deep it would be before you get -4/-4.
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on [[Peasant]] The Peasant Cube Discussion Thread (C/U/)
    Quote from ArBoR4817 »
    How rare are three color decks in your cube for you to not even consider them for the average case of Defile?

    Offhand I would have guessed that something like 5-10% of the cube's decks are more than 2 color. But we all run 1CC three drops and those also are almost reserved for 2 color decks. I think of defile's color requirements to be similar to that of vampire nighthawk, minus the total failure case when color screwed.

    Quote from Eldamir »

    How often do you run 9 swamps? If your second colour has cards costing CC, 1CC or 2CC, you are probably running 3 nonbasics and 7 of each basic? In your cube there were about 9 such cards in each colour.

    Looking at your cube, it seems that on average each player might end up with 3 nonbasics ( (1/2)*15*152/368=3,1)? This doesn't even count the coloured lands and dual lands, so the average might be higher. Given that you usually build 2 colour decks, the expected value of swamps in a Bx deck would be 7. What does the math look like for this case?

    I'm actually having trouble following the math you did to arrive at this number of 3 (It actually took me a long time just to remember that different people use commas to separate wholes from tenths). Why did you divide 152 by 368?

    In any case, I did neglect to account for nonbasics. By rough estimate, I'm used to seeing something to the effect of 1.5 nonbasics per deck. It isn't wildly uncommon to see 3 in a two color deck, but I am certainly more likely to see 0 than 3. This is probably because people don't always run every nonbasic in their colors. So I'll grant 1.5 per deck, which puts me on fair ground to expect 8 swamps with room to see perfectly common decks that have 9.

    Just so you know, with 8 swamps in the deck the percentages drop by approximately 5 or 6 if I remember correctly. Not negligible but ok-ish.

    I agree with Arbor, for me being better late game (and often only very late game) doesn't make up for the lack of reliability in the early game when we talk about a 1 mana spell

    I know you can't believe this is universally true because I know you don't think this of path to exile. So there is some amount of being good at different stages of the game that is acceptable. Defile never reaches the high point of PtE, obviously, and it requires you to be majority black, but it at least actually functions in the early game where PtE is probably a serious misplay.

    Look, I drew a thingy

    Usefulness on the y axis and turn count on the X axis. My MS Paint skills aren't what they used to be, but I think this is reasonably fair.
    Defile is essentially as good as disfigure on turn 1, then worse for turns 2 and 3. Slightly better on turn 4 on average, then just better from there. All with the caveat of being only playable in a deck that would be happy casting a spell for 1BB. Turns 5 to 7 aren't so late in the game to be outliers, they're perfectly relevant. Hence why we entertain at least conversationally the value of cycling on a 2 drop.

    Even if defile just upgrades to 1 mana last gasp for the whole game, it's really tough for last gasp to lose its value except against ramp.


    Your other complaint about randomness is interesting, although the variability in defile vs a card like... vampire nighthawk is only that nighthawk has an on/off switch for when it works and defile uses a sliding scale. Defile's variance functions sorta similarly to rise from the tides.
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on [[Peasant]] The Peasant Cube Discussion Thread (C/U/)
    Defile vs Disfigure
    This isn't a monocolor issue at all. It's all about the scaling.
    Average case, Defile only lags behind Disfigure on the opponents 2 and 3 drop turns.

    (I am assuming you're running 9 swamps with the math)

    Turn 1
    Against 1 drops, they are essentially identical.

    Turn 2
    Only about half of our two drops have 2+ toughness. So half the time, it snipes a 1 toughness guy just as well as disfigure. Against 2 toughness creatures, there's... a lot of gamestate to take into account. Worst case scenario, you were on the draw when they played a 2/2 on their turn 2, and you have a different play to make on your next turn. But in every other scenario we're just looking at the odds of having 2 swamps by your turn 2. That's 59-67%. Ballparking it all together, it seems like defile will be as good as disfigure on this turn like 80% of the time.

    Turn 3
    For turn 3, the odds of having 2 swamps ranges from 67% to 73%. Accounting for 1 toughness creatures, 2 drops being played on turn 3, etc, it seems like defile is as good as disfigure on turn 3 about 70-80% of the time again.

    Turn 4
    This is interesting. You only have a 73-79% chance of having 2 swamps by now. But you have a 39-47% chance of having three or more swamps by now as well. So while 24% of the time it's worse than disfigure, 43% of the time it's better.

    Defile's entire value would have to come from it being close to terror in the late game, and it starts being able to do that occasionally as early as turn 4. Being able to moonlight as a 1 mana terror from turn 5 or 6 and onward is comparable to how we value slapping cycling on a 6 or 7 drop.

    Perhaps defile is best thought of as a cross between disfigure and murderous cut? Murderous cut is only good because it can be a 1 mana terror eventually, but it does have a plan b of being about as good as murder at about turn 4 or 5. Defile can almost be a 1 mana terror in the late game but its plan b is instead to be a disfigure for the early game. Which isn't too bad.

    I think I just talked myself into keeping it in.
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on [[Peasant]] The Peasant Cube Discussion Thread (C/U/)
    Conveniently, I didn't want to run the card before I saw how uggums it was.

    Might as well ask for a ranking:

    I'm running all but disfigure, and am looking to remove defile to test other cards.
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on 2 player cube and draft method
    The impulse draft is in the same family as the one above.

    The modified version I described is what I played with yesterday. It went so well and so quickly that my friend asked me repeatedly to remind him of the instructions so he could use it with his own cubes when I'm not around. That's a good sign.
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on Jumpstart Spoilers (new cards, downshifts) for CU/be
    Wow spiteful prankster is 10 dollars wtf.
    And the thriving lands are 8?
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • posted a message on [[Peasant]] The Peasant Cube Discussion Thread (C/U/)
    By some miracle, I actually got nearly a dozen people to put down that they'd have a real draft on the 11th of July. I'll try and see if I can do the C/u list and then after that I don't know which cube I want to try out the most. I think the Orzhov list needs the most eyes on it.

    Conveniently, NY is almost out of the woods with this virus (lowest infection rate in the country, less than 1% of people test positive now)
    Posted in: Pauper & Peasant Discussion
  • To post a comment, please or register a new account.