Alright so let me just come clean about my role because there are a lot of questions about it and I'd like to get them answered in this one post.
I'm Prospero, Town Enchanter.
My spring ability is I can give someone a green orb at Night.
My summer ability is that I can give someone a yellow orb at Night.
My winter ability is that I can give someone a blue orb at Night.
My fall ability is that I can give someone a orange orb at Night.
In addition, X times per game during the Day, I can pick an orb and give it to another player during the Day once per Day.
Proph, how did you attempt to give an orange orb? It was spring overnight.
Silver, that's interesting, I want to believe that argument. iirc you are townreading KCC as well, so then do you agree with my idea that it's not too many RBs, or do you think someone might still be lying? I feel like if Proph's spring ability is just "Color of Spring: give someone a green orb at night" or something, he'd be okay with lying, even if he picked up on that. I'm not sure where in his role the description of the orb effects would be.
I guess a more general way to ask what I want to ask here is: do you think that he's town if he's telling the truth about his spring role/what the green orbs do?
Yeah, I kinda have a one track mind. I think Proph is more likely scum than not here. Too many RBs. The ability is awful and useless as claimed, way worse than my Winter which is already one of the worst abilities I've ever seen, like to the point of being nonsense. I think he probably tried to keep it close to his real ability, but also tried changing it to sound less scummy and just ended up with a ridiculous mess
The one thing giving me pause is again that he Targeted axel. Scum letting me choose a target is hard to wrap my head around, regardless of what the orbs might do
Hm, but your winter ability is also sort of setup-based/pretty specific, right? Why does that make you feel like his ability is less likely - I feel like it's mostly useless because it's so specific?
And ahh, I understand re: you targeting Proph, I hadn't realized how that part of your role applied.
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Silver, that's interesting, I want to believe that argument. iirc you are townreading KCC as well, so then do you agree with my idea that it's not too many RBs, or do you think someone might still be lying? I feel like if Proph's spring ability is just "Color of Spring: give someone a green orb at night" or something, he'd be okay with lying, even if he picked up on that. I'm not sure where in his role the description of the orb effects would be.
Also, Arkham was almost two years ago, is there like, an outside reason you think he would find it especially memorable?
A silly read is that Killjoy is not partners with Proph for that line about how the color of spring is metallic, but I'm not sure whether a partner would know the role name or not, and even if a partner did know the role name it's still a really silly read.
As for KCC I'm basically barning Nacho when he rescinded his CC. The read is stale because it's based on a last ditch flurry from almost a month ago, but it was an impressive flurry and it's stuck in my mind.
Oh, then what do you mean by flurry? I thought you meant the final push to lynch her right before the deadline, but that doesn't jibe with this. Do you mean just the longer post that she made before Nacho rescinded?
The weirdest thing to me about Proph's claim is how situational/specific it seems. But that situationality is weird regardless of alignment. He can't do anything but be a loud visitor until the first fall (d3 if we hadn't NLed), and even after that, his claimed role relies on someone specific targeting someone else specific - like, I can't imagine his orb effects proccing outside of a manufactured scenario, or a late endgame situation with only a few people left. I guess the latter fits with the "setting up for later" nature of the role concept?
I also don't really understand why shadow would use one of his x day shots targeting Vezok, but obviously Proph can't answer that for us.
Actually, one way to confirm his role would be like, use one of his day shots toDay to give person A a yellow orb, toNight give person B an orange orb, and have A also target B toNight and see if B is told A's role name. The question about whether testing would do anything for us is - if we believe he's telling the truth about the effect of yellow orbs, would we then believe he's town? His other claimed effects seem pretty pro-town, so if that part is true, it seems to me that it's probably just a fiddly, "meant-to-endgame" town role...?
Is there anyone who thinks KCC and Proph's claimed roles can both be town given tom's role?
Tom is (essentially) a one-shot fall night JK. KCC claimed a spring night roleblocker who can't stop factional abilities. And I haven't fully wrapped my head around Proph's claim, but it sounds like he sets up his roleblock in spring, but needs it to become fall, or to become spring again, to set up the other "half" of the roleblock.
Especially given that there are very few claimed roles that can stop nightkills, it doesn't really seem like too much to me?
KCC, were you trying to bait someone into pretending that they had an orb or what?
Why would anyone ever false claim that? How would that possibly make sense?
I asked because no one should have a new one, and if someone does, it's a giant red flag
KCC - Sorry, this isn't clicking for me. We know now that the orb giving failed, but if someone had claimed to have received an orb, what conclusion would you have drawn? Like, did you think Proph was lying about giving out orbs or something, when Nacho confirmed that he had gotten an orb?
Also, can I ask for a general update on where you're at, besides your thoughts on Wisp?
KCC felt town in that rush at the EoD1 and I haven't much considered the slot sense. With Nacho flipping town I feel feel even better about the slot but haven't given it a ton of thought.
KJ feels very town to me. I don't have zero doubts, but I have very few.
Hey grape, could I ask you to expand a bit more on these two reads?
Also, would appreciate hearing your thoughts on Rhand when you've reread more.
So, to be actually productive, I think that people who are not voting me/Rhand/Proph right now should move onto one of us, and/or make a case for why someone besides these people should be a wagon today.
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I'm puzzled that no one seems to be, like, hard defending any of these three "viable wagons." There are just people who would prefer other people in their POE, or would only vote us to compromise. This is probably expected, because if more than ~3 people were strongly defending someone, they wouldn't be a viable wagon in the first place. But if there are mafia in the top three there, why are they being bussed? It seems pretty subpar to bus today, given that mafia would need to convince even fewer town than usual in order to not get a mafia lynched - if there are mafia bussing today, I'd think it's probably a result of carrying over reads from a previous day to be consistent...? If there are not mafia, where is it that the townreads of [the thread/people/me] are wrong right now?
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I also think, from a setup gaming perspective, that the 10 to lynch today might point to Asta being town. If he were mafia, it would be nearly impossible to lynch mafia today, and that just seems like a rough thing for town - especially if the increase in the number required to lynch is also from a mafia role. And given that no one's claimed it, I'd guess it's more likely that it's a result of a mafia action.
(Alternatively, it could be from (1) the role of someone who's dead (which could only be Gemma, I think) or who can't claim it for whatever reason; (2) Wisp's "dreams of prophecy," but I don't think he is faking not knowing what it does, or faking his frustration at the number of people needed to lynch, and besides, I don't think he is w/w with Asta; or (3) something weird I haven't thought of.)
Since this seems pretty split, and we've got less than a week before the deadline and need 10 votes to lynch, I wanted to see who even would be possible to lynch toDay. I was going to ask people for their POEs/bottom tiers, like tom did, but I think enough was posted to figure it out -
Grapefruit: not [Asta, KJ, KCC?, Silver?, Last?] Not entirely sure where he's going today, but I will assume he will vote with vezok
Keldeo: idk, Proph/KCC/fulcrum/Vaimes/Rhand I guess? I haven't sat down and done work for this game for a while, I feel like some of my reads need updating.
fulcrum: Proph, others? If I assume she has the same POE as yesterday, it'd be Rhand/Keldeo, Axel/KCC/Proph/dkings
Axel: Hasn't posted an explicit POE, seems suspecting Vaimes?
If we leave Axel and dkings' votes out for now, we have a max of 13 votes. So, if each person "votes" for everyone they seem to be okay with lynching / are not townreading, the viable wagons are:
Keldeo (12): Everyone but me
Proph (12): Everyone but him
Rhand (11): Everyone but him and KCC
Possibly viable wagons given compromise from people not on them, or added votes from Axel/dkings:
KCC (8*): Killjoy, Silver, Vaimes, Last, Vezok, Keldeo, fulcrum, Grapefruit if he votes with Vezok,
Axel (7*): Killjoy, Rhand, Vaimes, Last, Vezok, fulcrum, Grapefruit if he votes with Vezok
@Proph: Here is my ISO in the recent game I was talking about. It was a hydra game, but I signed all my posts. If you're looking for a more representative sample of my meta, I linked some more games in this post.
Can you go more into what from toDay changed Vaimes to a town read for you? I know you talked about it a little bit but I'd like you to elaborate a bit more.
Proph, how did you attempt to give an orange orb? It was spring overnight.
Also, what changed for you on KCC, and why do you think Last is scummy?
And ahh, I understand re: you targeting Proph, I hadn't realized how that part of your role applied.
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Silver, that's interesting, I want to believe that argument. iirc you are townreading KCC as well, so then do you agree with my idea that it's not too many RBs, or do you think someone might still be lying? I feel like if Proph's spring ability is just "Color of Spring: give someone a green orb at night" or something, he'd be okay with lying, even if he picked up on that. I'm not sure where in his role the description of the orb effects would be.
Also, Arkham was almost two years ago, is there like, an outside reason you think he would find it especially memorable?
I also don't really understand why shadow would use one of his x day shots targeting Vezok, but obviously Proph can't answer that for us.
Actually, one way to confirm his role would be like, use one of his day shots toDay to give person A a yellow orb, toNight give person B an orange orb, and have A also target B toNight and see if B is told A's role name. The question about whether testing would do anything for us is - if we believe he's telling the truth about the effect of yellow orbs, would we then believe he's town? His other claimed effects seem pretty pro-town, so if that part is true, it seems to me that it's probably just a fiddly, "meant-to-endgame" town role...?
Proph, can someone hold multiple orbs?
Especially given that there are very few claimed roles that can stop nightkills, it doesn't really seem like too much to me?
Also, can I ask for a general update on where you're at, besides your thoughts on Wisp?
Also, would appreciate hearing your thoughts on Rhand when you've reread more.
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I'm puzzled that no one seems to be, like, hard defending any of these three "viable wagons." There are just people who would prefer other people in their POE, or would only vote us to compromise. This is probably expected, because if more than ~3 people were strongly defending someone, they wouldn't be a viable wagon in the first place. But if there are mafia in the top three there, why are they being bussed? It seems pretty subpar to bus today, given that mafia would need to convince even fewer town than usual in order to not get a mafia lynched - if there are mafia bussing today, I'd think it's probably a result of carrying over reads from a previous day to be consistent...? If there are not mafia, where is it that the townreads of [the thread/people/me] are wrong right now?
--
I also think, from a setup gaming perspective, that the 10 to lynch today might point to Asta being town. If he were mafia, it would be nearly impossible to lynch mafia today, and that just seems like a rough thing for town - especially if the increase in the number required to lynch is also from a mafia role. And given that no one's claimed it, I'd guess it's more likely that it's a result of a mafia action.
(Alternatively, it could be from (1) the role of someone who's dead (which could only be Gemma, I think) or who can't claim it for whatever reason; (2) Wisp's "dreams of prophecy," but I don't think he is faking not knowing what it does, or faking his frustration at the number of people needed to lynch, and besides, I don't think he is w/w with Asta; or (3) something weird I haven't thought of.)
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Rhand (3) - Vezokpiraka, Silvercrys, Prophylaxis
Prophylaxis (3) - Keldeo, lastwhisper, fulcrum
Vaimes (1) - Rhand
Axelrod (1) - Vaimes
Not Voting(4) - dkingsland967, Grapefruit21, Axelrod, KittyCupCake
Since this seems pretty split, and we've got less than a week before the deadline and need 10 votes to lynch, I wanted to see who even would be possible to lynch toDay. I was going to ask people for their POEs/bottom tiers, like tom did, but I think enough was posted to figure it out -
If we leave Axel and dkings' votes out for now, we have a max of 13 votes. So, if each person "votes" for everyone they seem to be okay with lynching / are not townreading, the viable wagons are:
Keldeo (12): Everyone but me
Proph (12): Everyone but him
Rhand (11): Everyone but him and KCC
Possibly viable wagons given compromise from people not on them, or added votes from Axel/dkings:
KCC (8*): Killjoy, Silver, Vaimes, Last, Vezok, Keldeo, fulcrum, Grapefruit if he votes with Vezok,
Axel (7*): Killjoy, Rhand, Vaimes, Last, Vezok, fulcrum, Grapefruit if he votes with Vezok
Probably not happening today:
Vaimes (4): Silver, Rhand, Keldeo, Axel
Silver (4): Killjoy, Asta, Asta, Rhand
Fulcrum (3): Proph, Keldeo, KCC
Lastwhisper (2): Killjoy, KCC
Dkings (2): Proph, fulcrum
This is all dependent on me having counted "votes"/interpreted posts correctly. A bit busywork, but maybe this makes the thread state a bit clearer.
@Proph: Here is my ISO in the recent game I was talking about. It was a hydra game, but I signed all my posts. If you're looking for a more representative sample of my meta, I linked some more games in this post.
Can you go more into what from toDay changed Vaimes to a town read for you? I know you talked about it a little bit but I'd like you to elaborate a bit more.