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Feb 22, 2020Keldeo posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - April Tempests love Scum Remnants Mafia Victorygg everyone, and congrats mafia.Posted in: Mafia
Thanks for having me! I'm sorry I couldn't do more.
Jan 19, 2020Keldeo posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - April Tempests love Scum Remnants Mafia VictoryGood luck and good night!Posted in: Mafia
Jan 19, 2020Keldeo posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - April Tempests love Scum Remnants Mafia VictoryWhat info do you get from analyzing this counterwagon? Because my instinct is that even though I'd like for KCC to go over I think I'm still dying today.Posted in: Mafia
Also, did you want to vote Asta just to get a CW or because you think he's likely to be mafia?
Jan 19, 2020I should be here for deadline and will self vote if absolutely needed to get a lunch through.Posted in: Mafia
I’m not a fan of the Asta push and don’t want to vote him. Proph, can you walk through the reasoning about his role? What is the reasoning for him to lie about how his double vote activates? Or if he’s not lying, why would it be designed so that a scum role activated differently from other roles?
Proph, I’ve seen your question, not sure if I can get around to answering it thoroughly but I think that’s generally right.
Also, some questions for everyone:
What do you perceive as the POE? If you had to lynch through say 5 people to win (including me if you want) who would they be?
How many wolves are likely to remain? I’ve been assuming that if it’s not multiball, it would be a 13:4 ratio to start, but maybe this site does something different.
Jan 19, 2020Oh yeah, Vaimes, is it pronounced like "rhymes" or "games" or something else? I have been wondering since Rhand's last troll reads list lolPosted in: Mafia
Jan 19, 2020Posted in: Mafia
Alright! Thanks for explaining the axiom haha, I don't really have this sort of setup thinking experience.Quote from Silvercrys3467 »They kind of just do, it's almost axiomatic lol
Like, if Proph is the only manipulative wolf role, any info/role reading is almost impossible to capitalize on. They can night kill that player but they can't really intentionally affect us with night actions
I guess they could burn the day orb handouts to give that player an orange orb and then a put a green orb on a partner that can target them consistently but trying to get it all to line up is kind of silly
The role makes way better sense as a town role or an extra wolf role on top of a stronger, more intentional manipulative imo
Can I ask when you started to have this thought about Proph?
Jan 19, 2020I'm pretty tired and I didn't get much productive out of that ISO sifting. Maybe what I posted helped someone?Posted in: Mafia
(don't kill anyone above this line anytime soon, imo)
Asta (considered putting him in the higher tier tbh, it'd feel right to put him there for stuff like his approach to me, his role, and Rhand stuff I've gone into... I don't really think I can feel good about it, though, based on his volume. imo if you're going to kill him you should have a really good reason, and I don't really think the way his role activates is a good reason)
fulcrum (I do have Nacho's Rhand/fulcrum theory in the back of my mind, but I feel like some of her interactions with Rhand were not w/w and her role also seems towny lol)
Axel (some Rhand interactions I like, some have me scratching my head)
Last/Silver (haven't ISOed them, seem somewhat towny independently, Rhand talking about them is probably useful and something I'll look into if I don't die before I get to the thread. @Wisp pick it up tomorrow, if that isn't too presumptuous hehe)
dkings (should maybe be higher for role reasons, I would appreciate other opinions on Rhand's EOD1)
Proph (but probably not w/w with KCC?)
or something like that. You could probably reorder everyone between Asta and Axel and get something that feels alright. You should have a really good reason if you kill anyone in the top 3 and a good reason for like the top... 5-6, imo.
Probably part of my read on Axel and dkings stems from OMGUS. I have a somewhat out-of-line emotional reaction to their push on me (you two aren't being out-of-line, it's got more to do with my circumstances/experiences than the cases themselves) and so don't think I can view it in a way that's conducive to making a neutral read.
I think you should kill KCC soon. I don't really know where the wolves are other than not liking her things with Rhand, which might mean someone is deep but generally the consensus POE (or at least my perception of it because I don't think it's been written out) feels alright to me :/
If I get hammered before I can post again - thank you all for having me as a newcomer to this forum, sorry I couldn't do more for this slot, kill some wolves for me!
Jan 19, 2020Posted in: Mafia
Mm, I do the "try to get people on board" thing with confident scumreads. I don't think anyone in this game has been at that level for me, maybe Axel briefly during d1? I usually need someone else encouraging me to get there. I'm very much not the type to tunnel someone or lead a lynch without both something strong and the thread pull to be able to do something with it, and my ability to make reads this game has felt frustratingly limp.Quote from Prophylaxis »@Keldeo: How do you generally interact with scumreads then? Just felt weird to me that instead of voting me and convincing the rest of the game to lunch your scumread you just asked me a couple of questions then pivoted elsewhere
Help me understand your playstyle; I understand that it's influenced a lot from Newcomb but that's to the extent of it
With less confident reads, the read is usually based off some aspect of progression or something that looks off, so I ask about it or get others' opinions on it. Or it's a POE read and I just ask questions about their worldview and perspective to see if some towniness ends up shining through and impressing me. I'm usually too easily impressed, though.
I take cues from Newcomb in philosophy/approach but I'm not much like him in practice, as you can probably tell. He's more "ivory tower," and a lot more confident and accurate - my reads are pretty awful and I second-guess myself / waver a lot. I'm more the person who asks questions so other people can make reads off the answers, or who brings a fresh perspective or something by pointing out weird stuff and giving everyone the benefit of the doubt.
Why are you trying to solve me here when I'm going to flip soon? I feel like you could be using your time in the thread for something more useful.
Jan 19, 2020For Proph's part he asked Rhand a fair few pointed questions.Posted in: Mafia
And there's the "If this is a bus, why is he giving credit to Nacho?" point.Quote from Prophylaxis »To that, if dkings is indeed town, I want to reread and poke at Rhand/fulcrum with sticks. Rhand was a townread of mine earlier but Nacho raised good points in his last couple of posts, and he hasn't posted anything in the past couple of weeks that has made me feel good about him. One post I didn't really like was this:
I know it's easy to say this because tom flipped town, but shifting your read that strongly based off of a joke post tom made feels very disingenuous to me.Quote from Rhand »I feel a lot worse about tom now for what Axel just pointed out. Tom loves open wolfing and that post about who his buddies would be is totally useless and fits perfectly in that meta.
Jan 19, 2020I guess he actually ends on a fulcrum townread after a reread and continues to dump Axel in his POE...Posted in: Mafia
I actually agree with a lot of the reasoning here, which is quite lol.
There's the early interaction with Vezok which wasn't w/v, there's the irritation with tom (I don't think scum would show this level of irritation knowing tom is town. Scum would either not voice anything or try to get him lynched over it) and the irritation when I was wondering if he was counterclaiming KCC. And then the real counterclaim to Axel.
The only thing I don't understand is that she doesn't seem to believe her own counterclaim anymore, but I can't see a wolf motivation for dropping that either.
Anyway, this is pretty much the only substantive post Rhand ever made on Proph's slot, which isn't great for him.Quote from tomsloger »
see i see prophs wall as... about as quiet as possible for that many words?Quote from Asta »god I can't wait for Vezok to take the shot. I guess I'm glad he waited this long, since Proph's big post is pretty informative. I think I might put Proph as a town-lean based on the post but I'm fully aware that I'm a ditz who just sees a big post and has the monkey-brain response of "wolf quiet, town loud" so that's a big ole grain of salt to take with that.
Eh how does that work? He is taking more Stamces than Keldeo in his reads posts. I like Proph’s catch up.
@Dkings: I’m not sure I understand what you’re saying. Do you think Proph is scum because of his read on you?
@Silver can you walk through why you think Proph shouldn't be mafia based on his role, or point to where you did if you already have? Why would mafia "need" to have a consistent disruptive, rather than a semi-disruptive that ramps up in endgame?
I had a not w/w read between KCC and Proph for their yesterDay iirc though, so it's possible this becomes moot as well if KCC is mafia.
Jan 19, 2020Posted in: Mafia
More points for Rhand/fulcrum not w/w, btw: This point on fulcrum seems similar to where Rhand was @ing people for their meta about me. As partners, I also don't think he'd need to mention her lack of justification here in a post that's primarily about KJ and silver really, I don't think she would have needed to put him in her shots list d2 either.
I haven’t seen him as scum for a very long time (I don’t think he even has rolled scum this year), so I am not sure what he is capable of.
His read on me didn’t feel as pure, but now that he dropped it, he feels more pure again.
Silver is a whole different story. KJ always claimed he found out how to read me and was wrong every time he thought he had it. He shouldn’t be this sure. Silver is like every townie ever that mislynched me: my posts sound “off” in some way (probably because I am not native English) and that makes people mistrust me all the time to the point where they step into a Rhand tunnel and never leave it.
I think scum!Silver would have left that tunnel by now, seeing there is not much support for it in this game.
What worries me more is Fulcrum’s scum read on me. I don’t recall her ever explaining why she thinks I am scum, she just drops me in her scum pile.
@Anyone that knows Fulcrum’s meta: is that normal behaviour for her?
Jan 19, 2020Rhand's scumread of Axel kind of disappears after that for a while. Axel also didn't talk about Rhand when he was talking about his voters unless I missed something?Posted in: Mafia
He critiques my read on Axel, but I don't think it's indicative of anything about Axel, unless you want to read into his lack of commentary on me agreeing with his apparent SR.
You accuse him of being noncommittal, but all the reads you just pushed out are noncommittal too.
Jan 19, 2020That post I just quoted also has a segment that brings Asta back up from a scumread, which neutralizes that part of my earlier read on him. But I still think Asta is town.Posted in: Mafia
Rhand's push on Axel at EOD1 also felt... relatively serious?
As an aside, his only prior thoughts on dk up to the point of this post is "he hasn't been radiating town like he did last game" and "his frustration feels pure" and he later shuts down joining the dk wagon because his scumread Nacho was on it. Which is a bit dull in terms of I'm not entirely sure why he'd shut down that path if dk was town, unless his goal was just to be off wagon? I do think also that the bodyguard requiring three separate abilities to function the way he said it did is pretty out there to fake.
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