It does because my original math had AE's ability wrong. His purple for the "target me" ability was only 4. That leaves us 6 points shy. I know that if I RB something it still affects the Clock. Theory: The blocked NK was worth 6 pts.
Now, look at the math for last Night. We're one point over. Assume Wessel is lying about using his Watcher ability (7 pts), and replace it with an NK (6 pts). The math adds up.
...for a total of 23 pts. For some unknown reason, we're one point over. Unless we assume Wessel used the NK and not his claimed 7 pt ability, in which case we are right on the money.
Alpha - Please shoot Wessel so we can all go home.
...for a total of 23 pts. For some unknown reason, we're one point over.
Please correct me if my math is wrong or if I've forgotten something.
I've only done the math on the past two Nights, so there may yet be a pattern that reveals itself that may suggest a reason for the discrepencies. Personally, I wonder if it has to do with either successful/unsuccessful kills or something, or perhaps is connected with the mystery of AE's failed attempt on kpaca Night One.
The more important thing that the totals suggest to me is that Wessel was indeed doing something that moved the Clock. I have confirmation from on high that if I 'block somebody who tried to take an action, the ability would still affect the Clock. So, unless Zindabad allows his mafiates to prosecute a kill and use an ability in the same Night without Motivation, than Wessel shouldn't be our primary suspect today.
I haven't gone back yet to look at Zindabad's other games to see if there is a clue there regarding the NK + ability possibility. Feel free to do that yourselves rather than wait on me. Or wait on me. Whichever.
I will say that the wording of Artifice's ability makes me think it is unlikely. Not impossible, though.
To be clear: Wessel isn't in my townie pile. Behaviorally, he's my favorite to walk the plank. However, given the data I think Brinatoo might be the better DK nominee.
I can flesh this stuff out later if any of it is confusing, but I'm running out of time:
Looked over Xyre and Wessel over Night. Found some good things about Xyre, some questionable things about Wessel.
Xyre, Alpha, and kpaca are in the green pile. Frankly, if kpaca has been pulling a gambit this entire game (and I only have a couple of minor points that even make me consider the possiblity) he can have the win as far as I'm concerned. He's earned it.
Brinatoo has been a non-entity for most of this game. A lot of what I like about him is that he feels like he posts from a place of innocence a lot of the time. However, I recognize this is a fairly big blind spot for me. Under pressure he's been pretty bad, resorting to quoting the dictionary and such. I suggest all of you read Brinatoo independently.
Or Alpha could just shoot him. I'm good with that, too. It's Wessel or Brin at this point, and the Clock suggests Brin.
I understand what you're trying to do with the numbers, but answer me this: Do you think nightkills advance the clock?
I'm not certain what the effect of the NK is on the Clock yet. Might have an answer soon.
Because I wouldn't think someone as town would out himself so quickly with such a powerful ability, especially if it's early days and you don't know how the clock mechanism works.
I need to look back over your initial comment. I may have misinterpreted what you said.
I think it's likely that AE targeted kpaca. My pm stated that no-one successfully targeted kpaca last night (look back at my first post of the day), implying that it could very well be that someone had tried, but did not succeed (possibly because he was nightkilled).
Your claim did not make any distinction between successful and unsuccessful "targeting". On top of which, what would unsuccessful targeting be, anyway?
You'd have me believe that the way your results is given to you has changed, and doesn't match your claim.
This smells more like you created results to hedge your bets.
I totally agree with you here. I think it's unlikely zindabad would be a bastard mod.
He can be a bastard mod to a degree. I just think that's too bastardly.
"DRey, it's time to ignore Iso", followed by an ad hom. Not liking this, Artifice.
But I tend to agree with your reasoning about Iso's claim though. It just seems too much for an ability like this. I mean, even if the aeon clock changes by 40 or 50 each day+night combined (rough guess), that would mean the game should progress at least some 10 days? Doubt it.
Also, coupled with the fact that Iso is a self-proclaimed Master Fakeclaimer, I have worries about his reasoning for shouting it out so loudly he has this power role? Is it just to flush out the power roles?
And one last thing, I doubt there's a reset ability. Unless Iso can show me where zindabad has made it clear that this is in fact possible, I am not believing his claim.
There's one post thought that makes me wonder whether Iso is indeed scum, which is this one, where zindabad apparently pm'd Iso. Did you pm him, zindabad? (Don't think I'll get an answer ;))
Here's 915. Actually, you took a stab at prediction the Clock movements, so that point is retracted, Wessel.
I doubt I can convince you of not shooting me. But if I can ask a favour of you guys, please keep me alive a few real life days longer, so that people will still answer the questions I asked them (specifically, Brin + PM).
Anyway, in my view Xyre is now the most confirmed townie. Then Alpha, then kpaca. So for me it's between Brinatoo and Pale Mage. I would opt for Brinatoo dead first.
Just out of curiosity though, kpaca, why did you investigate Xyre and not me?
Xyre and Alpha are both wholly confirmed at this point (or as best they can be without actually reading their respective role PMs). Neither makes sense as scum short of "more than one scum left" (very unlikely) or "Godfather" (possible, but not very likely). Well, I guess something really screwy could be up with kpaca's investigation ability, but if the only clue we've got to that is Brin's claim that his results are guaranteed sane, that would be fairly bastardly of Zindabad. But that's only a concern if Xyre is actually the last scum, anyway, and behaviorally that isn't likely in the first place.
If you're town, Brin or kpaca is my pool. Pretty sure we can get through that if need be.
I investigated xyre, he was town. I say shoot wessel, if we're still here lynch Pale Mage. Should be simple.
I don't think we'll still be here. Why me if we are still here, though? Also, I'd like to know the numbers on you're Spring ability, as well as if you can explain why AE's ability failed on you Night One (a simple "yes" or "no" works for me on that one).
Actually, I can wait on that second thing for if we're still here. It's probably something to do with Wessel in the first place.
Well, I didn't have a lot of possible options. If I can only see whether someone targeted someone else, what do I learn from that? The only way it can make a difference is if someone claims to have targeted him and I can say that that wasn't so. If I had targeted a townie, what would I have gained by that? If that townie hadn't been targeted, why would scum claim they had targeted him? And if that townie had been targeted, he could have been targeted by any number of people, I still wouldn't have known anything. So I made the calculation that I would only gain possible information if I targeted scum, no-one targeted him, and the scum would run a gambit that they did target him.
See, that would only work out for you if the scum pull a gambit involving a lie that ties himself to another scum. It's a fairly specific set of circumstances. A more natural thought process for a townie would be "at least I can confirm or refute claimed targets later in the game". In other words, something more general than what you claim to have been trying.
I got a result of no result. Mistakenly I put it down as a copy of N1 and N2 with 'no-one targeted him', while I meant 'no result'.
Maybe. Or you surmised no one targeted him since you had a better view of the board than you should have had.
I thought I would only get results for N3.
Then this conveniently would do more to confirm that you could target people with something non-lethal more than anything else.
I thought it was pretty much impossible to reach five clock rotations. I myself could only move the clock by +3 at the time (or +7 at most, late game), and I couldn't see how we would get at least +500 during this whole game.
But you had strong reason to believe the Clock could make it all the way 'round at least one time, and possibly more, right? I see that you mentioned we probably didn't have a reset in the game (post 915, I think), but that was as far as your thinking took you, apparently.
My first instinct said Iso was lying, specifically because he was so secretive about his abilities, only saying that we would love to have it. That in my mind only made Iso to a big target for a NK.
Wait, what? Why bring an NK thought process into this? But since you did...why would that have made Iso too big a target for the NK?
Why? What would it gain us? And wasn't WoD Yblisa?
WoD was Yblisa. I'm just wondering if Zindabad is pulling something fun and weird given that this is a Specialty and the Daybreak flavor scene. It costs us like nothing to explore it, so I am.
Why?
'Cause I don't think for a second AE wouldn't target Kpaca again last Night without a restraining order. He'd pretty much made it his mission in life to only pursue kpaca. He invested heavily; he would have seen it through.
It's late, and I'm about to shut down my computer, but I wanted to say that I targeted kpaca last night, but according to the mod's pm, nobody successfully targeted him last night.
That's crazy talk.
I will answer all questions tomorrow (real life), including yours, Pale Mage. The numbers of my ability are +3 +5 +7, btw.
Lol. That would be interesting. I actually thought of that idea for a game yesterday, "npc" to vote for with riddles.
/agree
I'm thinking one scum left. Otherwise a 3 to 1 ratio to start out seems pushing it.
Town:
Me
Alpha (investigation)
PM (actions yesterday caught a scum)
kpaca (behavior day 1 with day 2 investigation to scum strongly hints at town)
Left:
Wessel
Xyre
Things to do:
Have Alpha shoot either Wessel or Xyre, then lynch the other, gg?
Likely. But rather than just start stacking bodies like cordwood, let's gather up the data and make sure we're not missing anything.
In addition, I'm sure Xyre would like to make good on his promise from Yesterday.
I agree we're probably down to just one mafia. Pretty sure Zindabad told us as much in the lynch scene Yesterday. Good chance it's Wessel, but not a slam dunk.
I doubt my vote on Yblisa will amount to anything...but if Zindy's going to throw down flavor I don't mind following it to a dead end if it isn't going to take more than a votecount. The Yblisa thing is probably just built into his story arc.
Could you please explain more? I see Alpha's point, but I don't see yours.
It's strange that Void didn't use his ability. Maybe he forgot, or did he do it on purpose? If the day ended then and there, what would have happened?
Firstly, we would suspect Void even more as he was the #1 suspect at that moment.
Secondly, the Aeon clock would also have been moved by +100. The scum team must therefore have known that for this game, it was not just important that the clock was in a certain season, but also that the years would have accounted for some differences. That is because although +100 is a substantial increase on the clock, other than changing the year it does not do anything other to the clock, one might say. Void might not have wanted to trigger passive abilities that would have happened in a year, perhaps? It does strengthen my own case, now I think of it, because if I would have been a teammate of Void, he could have ended the day to get a free NK, and my abilities would have been stronger (as my abilities are stronger in the second year.)
Thirdly, the day would have ended without a vig shot or a lynch, which is a plus for the scum because it's basically a free NK.
But I still don't know why Void didn't use his ability. What's your take on it, Pale Mage?
Think about the board state at the time. Kpaca had come forward with his investigation on Void. Brinatoo had come forward with his information and claim. Alpha had come forward with his claim. And the part I forgot to factor in when I initially went through this: A mafiate had died during the Night to a vig or SK (obviously we know now it was SK, but we don't know what Void or the scum team as whole's opinion was on that).
So, Void has every reason to believe he's going down to the Daykill. So why not end the Day and go to Night for value? Keep in mind Void had just replaced in and was forced to claim, so his role PM would be fresh in his mind for those two reasons (i.e. it is unlikely he simply didn't remember or realize he could use that ability).
The simplest reason is that the value equation doesn't look like it's going to work out in his team's favor. It was Spring. Moving the Clock forward 100 puts us back in Spring, yes? So that would give kpaca another investigation. Alpha would still have his Daykill in his pants. If we ended up waking up again in Spring, then Brin would have more information, too. I believe Void deliberately held on to his one-shot because going to Night was bad value in his estimation (possibly all of theirs depending on the communication rules).
I can tilt my head when I look at it and come up with that pointing to one of the two major players as his scum buddy, but I think the simpler explanation that there were simply too many targets to neutralize for it to be worth ending the Day is the correct one.
Yup, I made an error there. My N4 action resulted in a 'no result'. It did fire, and I did get a pm, but I did not get a result. Because I did not get a result of someone targeted him, I erroneously wrote that no-one targeted him.
On night 1, I could only watch someone to see whether someone targeted him. It's quite weak, so I did not have much options, so I used the following tactic:
I thought vezokpiraka was scum. If my result would return in 'no-one targeted him', and on D2 someone would say 'I investigated vezok and he's town' (or scum, depending on which way the scum would want to pull off their tactic), I could say 'Aha! I've got you there!'
And if my result would return in 'someone targeted him', I would at least know that someone targeted him.
What led you to believe (if Vezok was scum) that the scum team would want to pull the gambit you described?
You thought you got a result on Alpha last Night, is that correct?
For infectiousbaloth, again because it was autumn I could only investigate whether someone targeted him. But with IB, it had an benefit because he claimed to have an ability that could swap roles, and then claimed to have Iso's 'postponement' ability. I wanted to use my weak role to see if he was telling the truth, which would also tell me if Iso was telling the truth about his ability. Regretfully, Iso was nightkilled by WoD, and then IB was lynched the following day, so I never got my results.
If IB had lived, what would your expected results have been? Like would you have gotten results for the immediate previous Night or all Nights your ability was "on the stack" so to speak.
What was your position on Iso's claim and the Clock movements back when he claimed, btw?
Final two people alive (what you'd need to get to to win as scum). Say the game gets down to you, me, AI, and, say, kpaca. I know who I'm going to suspect first, and it ain't kpaca.
Apparently I've gotten much worse as scum if you think I'd let a Daykiller, a cop/tracker, and a veteran who doesn't trust me stroll into an Lylo scenario with me. Have some wine...but seriously, dude. I can be gutsy, but I'm not suicidal as scum unless I have to be.
It's very unlikely there are more than 2 scum alive. Odds are good we wake up tomorrow to four townies and two scum, which gives us a window for both a vig and a lynch, barring shenanigans.
You mean the RB thing? It's plausible, but as noted previously, I still think Wessel is the higher-value lynch. Plus saving DJ for tomorrow means we can shoot him and then lynch you were he to turn up town, which I expect would pretty much guarantee a scum hit.
If we have the room you believe we have, lynching Wessel first is a waste of time. You lynch me or DJC and force the scum team to choose between the Daykill tomorrow or kpaca's investigation results.
You keep assuming we have Alpha in the morning, btw. Why?
And odds are pretty good we wake up with 1 scum and five townies tomorrow if we lynch DJC. You're bending over backwards to try and justify not lynching the obvious choice whilst avoiding the most logical reason not to do so: That I'm pulling a gambit.
We're on a deadline. If you really don't trust me, go ahead and give me that once over. Otherwise vote for DJC. My vote's not moving.
It does because my original math had AE's ability wrong. His purple for the "target me" ability was only 4. That leaves us 6 points shy. I know that if I RB something it still affects the Clock. Theory: The blocked NK was worth 6 pts.
Now, look at the math for last Night. We're one point over. Assume Wessel is lying about using his Watcher ability (7 pts), and replace it with an NK (6 pts). The math adds up.
Wessel is scum. Clock and behavior agree.
The Clock moved 24 places.
Me - 7 pts.
AE - 4 pts. (redirect to himself)
Wessel - 7 pts.
...for a total of 18 points. For some unknown reason, we're six points short.
That is, unless the NK is worth six points!
Night Five (Spring)
The Clock moved 22 places.
AE (assumed) - 9 pts (rolecop)
Wessel - 7 pts.
kpaca - 7 pts.
...for a total of 23 pts. For some unknown reason, we're one point over. Unless we assume Wessel used the NK and not his claimed 7 pt ability, in which case we are right on the money.
Alpha - Please shoot Wessel so we can all go home.
(4, 5, 9).
Night Four (Winter)
The Clock moved 24 places.
Me - 7 pts.
AE - 9 pts.
Wessel - 7 pts.
...for a total of 23 points. For some unknown reason, we're one point short.
Night Five (Spring)
The Clock moved 22 places.
AE (assumed) - 9 pts
Wessel - 7 pts.
kpaca - 7 pts.
...for a total of 23 pts. For some unknown reason, we're one point over.
Please correct me if my math is wrong or if I've forgotten something.
I've only done the math on the past two Nights, so there may yet be a pattern that reveals itself that may suggest a reason for the discrepencies. Personally, I wonder if it has to do with either successful/unsuccessful kills or something, or perhaps is connected with the mystery of AE's failed attempt on kpaca Night One.
The more important thing that the totals suggest to me is that Wessel was indeed doing something that moved the Clock. I have confirmation from on high that if I 'block somebody who tried to take an action, the ability would still affect the Clock. So, unless Zindabad allows his mafiates to prosecute a kill and use an ability in the same Night without Motivation, than Wessel shouldn't be our primary suspect today.
I haven't gone back yet to look at Zindabad's other games to see if there is a clue there regarding the NK + ability possibility. Feel free to do that yourselves rather than wait on me. Or wait on me. Whichever.
I will say that the wording of Artifice's ability makes me think it is unlikely. Not impossible, though.
To be clear: Wessel isn't in my townie pile. Behaviorally, he's my favorite to walk the plank. However, given the data I think Brinatoo might be the better DK nominee.
I can flesh this stuff out later if any of it is confusing, but I'm running out of time:
Looked over Xyre and Wessel over Night. Found some good things about Xyre, some questionable things about Wessel.
Xyre, Alpha, and kpaca are in the green pile. Frankly, if kpaca has been pulling a gambit this entire game (and I only have a couple of minor points that even make me consider the possiblity) he can have the win as far as I'm concerned. He's earned it.
Brinatoo has been a non-entity for most of this game. A lot of what I like about him is that he feels like he posts from a place of innocence a lot of the time. However, I recognize this is a fairly big blind spot for me. Under pressure he's been pretty bad, resorting to quoting the dictionary and such. I suggest all of you read Brinatoo independently.
Or Alpha could just shoot him. I'm good with that, too. It's Wessel or Brin at this point, and the Clock suggests Brin.
I'm not certain what the effect of the NK is on the Clock yet. Might have an answer soon.
I need to look back over your initial comment. I may have misinterpreted what you said.
Your claim did not make any distinction between successful and unsuccessful "targeting". On top of which, what would unsuccessful targeting be, anyway?
You'd have me believe that the way your results is given to you has changed, and doesn't match your claim.
This smells more like you created results to hedge your bets.
He can be a bastard mod to a degree. I just think that's too bastardly.
Yeah, I need a definite answer.
Plural?
My condolences. Very sorry to hear this, Brin.
Here's 915. Actually, you took a stab at prediction the Clock movements, so that point is retracted, Wessel.
Xyre and Alpha are both wholly confirmed at this point (or as best they can be without actually reading their respective role PMs). Neither makes sense as scum short of "more than one scum left" (very unlikely) or "Godfather" (possible, but not very likely). Well, I guess something really screwy could be up with kpaca's investigation ability, but if the only clue we've got to that is Brin's claim that his results are guaranteed sane, that would be fairly bastardly of Zindabad. But that's only a concern if Xyre is actually the last scum, anyway, and behaviorally that isn't likely in the first place.
If you're town, Brin or kpaca is my pool. Pretty sure we can get through that if need be.
I don't think we'll still be here. Why me if we are still here, though? Also, I'd like to know the numbers on you're Spring ability, as well as if you can explain why AE's ability failed on you Night One (a simple "yes" or "no" works for me on that one).
Actually, I can wait on that second thing for if we're still here. It's probably something to do with Wessel in the first place.
See, that would only work out for you if the scum pull a gambit involving a lie that ties himself to another scum. It's a fairly specific set of circumstances. A more natural thought process for a townie would be "at least I can confirm or refute claimed targets later in the game". In other words, something more general than what you claim to have been trying.
Maybe. Or you surmised no one targeted him since you had a better view of the board than you should have had.
Then this conveniently would do more to confirm that you could target people with something non-lethal more than anything else.
But you had strong reason to believe the Clock could make it all the way 'round at least one time, and possibly more, right? I see that you mentioned we probably didn't have a reset in the game (post 915, I think), but that was as far as your thinking took you, apparently.
Wait, what? Why bring an NK thought process into this? But since you did...why would that have made Iso too big a target for the NK?
WoD was Yblisa. I'm just wondering if Zindabad is pulling something fun and weird given that this is a Specialty and the Daybreak flavor scene. It costs us like nothing to explore it, so I am.
'Cause I don't think for a second AE wouldn't target Kpaca again last Night without a restraining order. He'd pretty much made it his mission in life to only pursue kpaca. He invested heavily; he would have seen it through.
I think you're lying.
That's crazy talk.
Thankee.
Likely. But rather than just start stacking bodies like cordwood, let's gather up the data and make sure we're not missing anything.
In addition, I'm sure Xyre would like to make good on his promise from Yesterday.
I agree we're probably down to just one mafia. Pretty sure Zindabad told us as much in the lynch scene Yesterday. Good chance it's Wessel, but not a slam dunk.
I doubt my vote on Yblisa will amount to anything...but if Zindy's going to throw down flavor I don't mind following it to a dead end if it isn't going to take more than a votecount. The Yblisa thing is probably just built into his story arc.
* Pale Mage wonders if we're on the brink of finishing this thing.
* Pale Mage pours coffee.
Waiting to hear from Kpain.
Wessel, you didn't claim your numbers on your ability. Please do so.
I'm subtle like that. You should be voting for DJC, btw. Dude has been hovering at L-1 with no hammer vote. Not a coincidence.
Think about the board state at the time. Kpaca had come forward with his investigation on Void. Brinatoo had come forward with his information and claim. Alpha had come forward with his claim. And the part I forgot to factor in when I initially went through this: A mafiate had died during the Night to a vig or SK (obviously we know now it was SK, but we don't know what Void or the scum team as whole's opinion was on that).
So, Void has every reason to believe he's going down to the Daykill. So why not end the Day and go to Night for value? Keep in mind Void had just replaced in and was forced to claim, so his role PM would be fresh in his mind for those two reasons (i.e. it is unlikely he simply didn't remember or realize he could use that ability).
The simplest reason is that the value equation doesn't look like it's going to work out in his team's favor. It was Spring. Moving the Clock forward 100 puts us back in Spring, yes? So that would give kpaca another investigation. Alpha would still have his Daykill in his pants. If we ended up waking up again in Spring, then Brin would have more information, too. I believe Void deliberately held on to his one-shot because going to Night was bad value in his estimation (possibly all of theirs depending on the communication rules).
I can tilt my head when I look at it and come up with that pointing to one of the two major players as his scum buddy, but I think the simpler explanation that there were simply too many targets to neutralize for it to be worth ending the Day is the correct one.
What led you to believe (if Vezok was scum) that the scum team would want to pull the gambit you described?
You thought you got a result on Alpha last Night, is that correct?
If IB had lived, what would your expected results have been? Like would you have gotten results for the immediate previous Night or all Nights your ability was "on the stack" so to speak.
What was your position on Iso's claim and the Clock movements back when he claimed, btw?
Apparently I've gotten much worse as scum if you think I'd let a Daykiller, a cop/tracker, and a veteran who doesn't trust me stroll into an Lylo scenario with me. Have some wine...but seriously, dude. I can be gutsy, but I'm not suicidal as scum unless I have to be.
If we have the room you believe we have, lynching Wessel first is a waste of time. You lynch me or DJC and force the scum team to choose between the Daykill tomorrow or kpaca's investigation results.
You keep assuming we have Alpha in the morning, btw. Why?
And odds are pretty good we wake up with 1 scum and five townies tomorrow if we lynch DJC. You're bending over backwards to try and justify not lynching the obvious choice whilst avoiding the most logical reason not to do so: That I'm pulling a gambit.
We're on a deadline. If you really don't trust me, go ahead and give me that once over. Otherwise vote for DJC. My vote's not moving.