I went to a bbq of sorts, but it was my computer that was on fire. Both my case fans broke and suddenly my computer seized and burning rubber smell flooded the room. Fun times.
I mean I think Wessel is scum, but all this math is troubling to me the more I see it. Quite frankly we just do no know what might cause those numbers. One person is lying about their role, and who the hell knows what all they can do?
Kpaca, we know a lot about what caused those numbers. Xyre's ability has provided a wealth of information, and we've been diligent about getting claims. Those two things are why we can apply the math to find discrepancies. Which is what I've done.
So far, I feel as if I'm the only person who has taken all of zindabad's warnings about trying non-behavioral analysis to heart.
Zindabad's point was he randomized most of the roles. That's it. He didn't provide us tools and expect us to ignore them. The Aeon Clock is more than a flavorful way to track the Seasons when combined with enough information.
What if someone is removing points?
Then things wouldn't add up. But they are. The whole point here is there are more points then should be there over the course of the game.
What if the nightkill doesn't require point activation?
Uh...I've pretty well shown that it does.
Evidence suggets this: Mafia NK (+4, +5, +6).
What if the scum can use their ability and their nightkill?
Okay. I've done the point totals for you. What would that mean? How does that fit? I've also suggested a good place to go research the likelihood of that: Zindabad's other games.
Maybe I have an over active imagination but both you and Wessel are having a math battle, and you really don't know that you are even doing the right math. You could be doing geometry when calculus is needed for all we know.
All that's required is arithmetic, and that's all I'm doing. Wessel and I are having a logic battle, and I'm destroying him at every turn. Look at the points he brings up to try and counter the argument.
Soon we'll have run out of numbers and then I'll move on to his claim to remind everyone how fluid that's been (the very height of honesty, surely), and then we'll take look at Wessel's behavior at specific times and as a whole.
I would like to point out how this game is becoming more and more about math.
I would like to point out you are perfectly capable of doing something other than math if you'd care to do so.
I would further like to point out this math is important. In the final analysis I am demonstrating that the Mafia NK moves the Aeon Clock. I have established a predictable pattern to support this. This is crucial, because it demonstrates beyond a reasonable doubt that one of the seven point claimed abilities from last Night was in fact not used. In its stead a six point NK was used.
Given other factors (his claim problems, his behavior this game) we know who the liar is.
The math is simply a huge nail in the Wessel coffin.
It's a shame AE never got round to claiming what he did Night 4.
Also, does anyone know what Artifice did in Night 2, did he claim if he motivated someone?
AE quite clearly softclaimed using the Whirlpool ability on kpaca when he asked AGAIN for kpaca to claim his targets for the previous Night. He and I had a short discussion about the productivity of having that conversation again on a different day.
Oh! Gotcha! I believe I was targeted by somebody else, and was given the ability to use my ability twice. I did, even though there was really no point.
That's Tezz in response to Artifice re: the motivate (Heat Wave). Note Tezz confirms he used his ability twice as a result. Again I "boo", again I "ya".
Like I said in my other game thread, I'll be V/LA until Tuesday, May 29th. If I get any PMs or any significant game events happen during that time, I'll do my best to respond to them but flavor will probably be limited.
You might as well have Wessel's death scene prepared. He's going down to my stubborness, apparently.
Pointing out logic built on factually incorrect statements is hardly shortsightedness. I am reminded of your "Misreps. Misreps everywhere" post with Woody and Buzz wherein I don't recall you detailing many misreps, if any.
You'll need to do better than this.
Talking about Archmage Eternal, now we know he's town, we know he was talking the truth about his whirlpool ability. This has been discussed before, but we now know he was talking the truth. So why did his redirect ability fail on kpaca?
Does that mean kpaca does in fact not have an ability in the spring, but does have an ability in the autumn and winter (when AE investigated him)?
If that's so, kpaca is at least lying. You should see this as well, Pale. Or am I missing something here?
You're missing the opportunity to enter your scoop phase and save everyone some time. I'll further note you missed the opportunity to respond to my last post, wherein I destroyed your attempt to twist facts and obfuscate the true meaning behind the Aeon Clock's movements over the past few Nights.
When would AE's abilities have succeeded or failed? Why would his ability have failed night 1? Because you didn't use an ability? Or because he was otherwise blocked? The only people with that kind of power in the spring are ced395 (practically impossible, just read his role why), ganderin_dan (would have had to be extremely providential, also practically impossible), or possibly DJ Catchem (which would mean he would have two distinct abilities, also practically impossible). So there's no reason why AE's ability would have been blocked or anything, which makes me wonder why his ability failed on you. The only reason I can think of is that you did not use an ability Night 1.
Also, @PM: Remember this if I'm dead due to your stubbornness, but AE did not target kpaca last night. I watched kpaca, and zindabad confirmed that no-one targeted him. AE can't have used tidal influence.
Can and did. Consider this: even if a player is roleblocked by my ability any actions he attempted still affect the Clock. So even if you were being honest with me in your results and no one targeted kpaca (oh, I'm sorry...successfully targeted kpaca as you first reported), then it is correct for us to follow AE's trail as best we can. His announced intentions/actions and the Clock movements are in agreement that he used Tidal Influence. This is not a coincidence.
Everything in your top paragraph is immaterial. In the highly unlikely event we need to consider these things, we will. None of this outweighs the evidence currently against you.
Seriously, aren't you tired yet? I'm not as organized or prolific as I once was, but I can ride you around this ring as many times as it takes. Between the Aeon Clock, the discrepancies in your claim/results, and the behavioral evidence it's very clear you're scum. Probably the last one, as well.
I've been doing some calculations of my own, and there's something wrong with yours, because of AE's abilities.
Only if AE had been successful with using his whirlpool ability, he could use swept away. However, if he did use swept away, he would have died on Day 5, along with whomever he targeted. So he can't have used swept away Night 4. Also he can't have used tidal influence on night 4 or 5, because that would have required two successful whirlpools in a row, which didn't happen because he admitted his ability failed against kpaca. So AE must have used whirlpool every season (if he did use his night action every night), which brings us to the following tallies for the past couple of nights...
Wrong. AE used Whirlpool against kpaca on Nights Three and Four. Night Five we are assuming he used Tidal Influence. And the math works. The balance sheet foots.
Swept Away doesn't enter into it. Neither does the failed Whirlpool on kpaca because that was all the way back on Night One.
Math aside, it wouldn't make sense for AE to use Whirlpool on kpaca or anyone else on Night Five. If he targets scum with that ability, he gets hit with the NK. If he'd hit a snag of some kind on Night Four, I could see him playing pseudo-bodyguard, but he hadn't. AE had invested two Nights into his suspect. He was going to rolecop him come hell or high water.
Why won't any of your team just drop the sham when your busted? This is all over save the funeral.
I'm more a man of letters, but these numbers are turning me on. Plus, it's elementary math, so I don't need Niv to walk me through it.
Quote from Wessel »
In any way, AE has only been able to use his whirlpool ability. Also, if he didn't use it Night 5, there are 8 places remaining.
This is your premise I destroyed earlier in the post...
Now who could have filled those remaining places? I say Brinatoo.
I think the NK might be worth +3/+4 places, and Brinatoo used an ability night 3 and night 4 to move the clock +2 places with DJC performing the NK. Or the NK is worth +4 every season, with Brinatoo's ability moving the clock +1/+2.
Words words words
I still prefer to vig Brin.
I'll bet you do!
Well, Brinatoo has been number 1 on my scumlist for a while now, so it shouldn't surprise you. I also wasn't totally convinced about your calculations, hence I didn't want to condemn kpaca for them immediately, hence I also did my own. It shows I was right not to move kpaca to my top spot, and I think my calculations show more clearly that Brinatoo is probably the one responsible for the unaccounted-for clock changes.
The only thing your calculations demonstrate are that you're cornered. You've resorted to making stuff up to try and weasel your way out of from the harsh glare of the Sun.
Speaking from the perspective of "the most experienced player in a recently completed scum game", in Triskelion Mafia, I played scum along with Zenjo (who had one completed game, which was also a scum game) and LuckNorris (who also had one completed scum game), and we only had Night chat - but I set out the plan so thoroughly that we only managed to lose LN and I managed to deflect from Zenjo's lynch completely. As long as the mafia coordinates enough in the Day with less complicated setups, Nighttalk is all they need. (For setups where more coordination is required, I of course, advocate Daytalk.)
You're advocating for the wrong idea.
Too much Daytalk is bad for the game, in my opinion. Scum should want to get out of Day for more reason than they get to plan the NK (which they may have been planning for a while, anyway). That tension is lost when every other game has Daytalk for the bad guys.
The complexity of the setup doesn't enter into it, in my opinion. What does the Town gain in a more complex setup? More crap thrown at the fan, that's what. More webs to weave into a puzzle that makes sense. Why take pity on the Mafia in that scenario? It's madness to suggest an Informed Minority needs more help in such a setup. If they do, then it probably could stand a revision or two.
The core of the game is Good Guys have to talk it out during the Day with the Bad Guys in the room, and then the Bad Guys get to snicker and plot amongst themselves at Night. Each team has to sweat it out at different times.
Daytalk was a cool mechanic when it was a new idea. Outside of Nightless games, I'd encourage designers to shy away from it. Let the idea become fresh again, and let a new generation figure out how to manage being "cut off" during the Day.
Next time on "Crap Pale Would Like To See Less Of Even Though It's Cool In Moderation": Hexproof.
This makes sense with how the other abilities have been costed, too. Nights Four and Five were using purple numbers and the NK moved the Aeon Clock six places. Night Three used the green numbers, and the NK only moved the Aeon Clock five places.
Anyone wanna bet we're missing 4 points on Nights One (Spring) and Two (Summer)?
You accept that the NK is 6 points (at least on purple nights)?
Also, shoot me if you want.
Yay! We agree.
That brings us back to four town vs. one scum I think. (I don't think there's more than one scum left.) If we then lynch Brin (and we still haven't won), and then we lynch kpaca. I don't think Pale Mage is scum. His latest posts have solidified it for me. (Especially 3238)
Whoah whoah whoah....you've called out kpaca's reasoning for investigating Xyre, have him on your PoE list, recognize that the only other math that works out is kpaca in your place, but you still suggest Brinatoo ahead of him?
C'mon, man! It's like you're not even trying at this point.
The only unaccounted for variables I can conceive is something that is moving the Clock backwards, which don't notice because so many more things are moving it forwards. I've wondered if such a thing exists due to my other ability, but so far nothing has presented itself.
Look, we can go back and take a look at the next previous Nights if you'd like to be sure. I think we'll find the same thing: There will be an unaccounted for number of points. That's the NK.
Yuck.
Yay! Cake and ice cream for everyone!
Kpaca, we know a lot about what caused those numbers. Xyre's ability has provided a wealth of information, and we've been diligent about getting claims. Those two things are why we can apply the math to find discrepancies. Which is what I've done.
Zindabad's point was he randomized most of the roles. That's it. He didn't provide us tools and expect us to ignore them. The Aeon Clock is more than a flavorful way to track the Seasons when combined with enough information.
Then things wouldn't add up. But they are. The whole point here is there are more points then should be there over the course of the game.
Uh...I've pretty well shown that it does.
Evidence suggets this: Mafia NK (+4, +5, +6).
Okay. I've done the point totals for you. What would that mean? How does that fit? I've also suggested a good place to go research the likelihood of that: Zindabad's other games.
All that's required is arithmetic, and that's all I'm doing. Wessel and I are having a logic battle, and I'm destroying him at every turn. Look at the points he brings up to try and counter the argument.
Soon we'll have run out of numbers and then I'll move on to his claim to remind everyone how fluid that's been (the very height of honesty, surely), and then we'll take look at Wessel's behavior at specific times and as a whole.
I'm good with this, as I've already said.
I would like to point out you are perfectly capable of doing something other than math if you'd care to do so.
I would further like to point out this math is important. In the final analysis I am demonstrating that the Mafia NK moves the Aeon Clock. I have established a predictable pattern to support this. This is crucial, because it demonstrates beyond a reasonable doubt that one of the seven point claimed abilities from last Night was in fact not used. In its stead a six point NK was used.
Given other factors (his claim problems, his behavior this game) we know who the liar is.
The math is simply a huge nail in the Wessel coffin.
AE quite clearly softclaimed using the Whirlpool ability on kpaca when he asked AGAIN for kpaca to claim his targets for the previous Night. He and I had a short discussion about the productivity of having that conversation again on a different day.
Night Two (Summer)
The Aeon Clock has moved forward 19 places...
Blue numbers!
iLord = 3 pts [Aestival]
Art = 3 pts [Heat Wave]
MzztrT (r. DM (r. Burst)) = 4 pts [Verdant Majesty X 2]*
Wrath_of_DoG = 0 [Last Word]
Archmage Eternal = 2 pts [Whirlpool]
Wessel = 3 pts (Poppies...poppies![/witch])
DJ Catchem = The missing 4 pts (Mafia NK)
Yanni, Niv, Alpha, Me, Brin, Xyre, kpaca, Iso, IB/Gan_dan = Nada
Fifteen places accounted for, four that aren't. As predicted by me after the analysis of the last three Nights.
Boo. Ya.
That's Tezz in response to Artifice re: the motivate (Heat Wave). Note Tezz confirms he used his ability twice as a result. Again I "boo", again I "ya".
You might as well have Wessel's death scene prepared. He's going down to my stubborness, apparently.
Pointing out logic built on factually incorrect statements is hardly shortsightedness. I am reminded of your "Misreps. Misreps everywhere" post with Woody and Buzz wherein I don't recall you detailing many misreps, if any.
You'll need to do better than this.
You're missing the opportunity to enter your scoop phase and save everyone some time. I'll further note you missed the opportunity to respond to my last post, wherein I destroyed your attempt to twist facts and obfuscate the true meaning behind the Aeon Clock's movements over the past few Nights.
Can and did. Consider this: even if a player is roleblocked by my ability any actions he attempted still affect the Clock. So even if you were being honest with me in your results and no one targeted kpaca (oh, I'm sorry...successfully targeted kpaca as you first reported), then it is correct for us to follow AE's trail as best we can. His announced intentions/actions and the Clock movements are in agreement that he used Tidal Influence. This is not a coincidence.
Everything in your top paragraph is immaterial. In the highly unlikely event we need to consider these things, we will. None of this outweighs the evidence currently against you.
Seriously, aren't you tired yet? I'm not as organized or prolific as I once was, but I can ride you around this ring as many times as it takes. Between the Aeon Clock, the discrepancies in your claim/results, and the behavioral evidence it's very clear you're scum. Probably the last one, as well.
Congrats.
Wrong. AE used Whirlpool against kpaca on Nights Three and Four. Night Five we are assuming he used Tidal Influence. And the math works. The balance sheet foots.
Swept Away doesn't enter into it. Neither does the failed Whirlpool on kpaca because that was all the way back on Night One.
Math aside, it wouldn't make sense for AE to use Whirlpool on kpaca or anyone else on Night Five. If he targets scum with that ability, he gets hit with the NK. If he'd hit a snag of some kind on Night Four, I could see him playing pseudo-bodyguard, but he hadn't. AE had invested two Nights into his suspect. He was going to rolecop him come hell or high water.
Why won't any of your team just drop the sham when your busted? This is all over save the funeral.
AE isn't assumed on Night Three. He claimed.
Skippitty-doo-dah...
Oh, gosh. Your math built on faulty logic doesn't foot properly. Whodathunkit?
Let's fix it just to reiterate to the kids at home what really happened Night Five...
I'm more a man of letters, but these numbers are turning me on. Plus, it's elementary math, so I don't need Niv to walk me through it.
This is your premise I destroyed earlier in the post...
Words words words
I'll bet you do!
The only thing your calculations demonstrate are that you're cornered. You've resorted to making stuff up to try and weasel your way out of from the harsh glare of the Sun.
You had a good run, Wessel. Time to hang it up.
You're advocating for the wrong idea.
Too much Daytalk is bad for the game, in my opinion. Scum should want to get out of Day for more reason than they get to plan the NK (which they may have been planning for a while, anyway). That tension is lost when every other game has Daytalk for the bad guys.
The complexity of the setup doesn't enter into it, in my opinion. What does the Town gain in a more complex setup? More crap thrown at the fan, that's what. More webs to weave into a puzzle that makes sense. Why take pity on the Mafia in that scenario? It's madness to suggest an Informed Minority needs more help in such a setup. If they do, then it probably could stand a revision or two.
The core of the game is Good Guys have to talk it out during the Day with the Bad Guys in the room, and then the Bad Guys get to snicker and plot amongst themselves at Night. Each team has to sweat it out at different times.
Daytalk was a cool mechanic when it was a new idea. Outside of Nightless games, I'd encourage designers to shy away from it. Let the idea become fresh again, and let a new generation figure out how to manage being "cut off" during the Day.
Next time on "Crap Pale Would Like To See Less Of Even Though It's Cool In Moderation": Hexproof.
The Aeon Clock has moved forward 21 places...
Green numbers!
WoD = 0 (Last Word X 2)
Artifice = 5 pts (Heat Wave)
MzztrT = 3 pts (Verdant Majesty, assumed)
Wessel = 5 pts (Poppies...poppies![/witch])
AE = 3 pts (Whirlpool)
Iso, kpain, xyre, me, alpha, brin, IB = 0 (Nada)
...so we can account for 16 points.
DJC = The missing 5 pts. (Mafia NK)
This makes sense with how the other abilities have been costed, too. Nights Four and Five were using purple numbers and the NK moved the Aeon Clock six places. Night Three used the green numbers, and the NK only moved the Aeon Clock five places.
Anyone wanna bet we're missing 4 points on Nights One (Spring) and Two (Summer)?
Not entirely, no. I think you gave me the right numbers, though.
Correct!
Based on math only? Sure. Based on behavior? No.
You accept that the NK is 6 points (at least on purple nights)?
Yay! We agree.
Whoah whoah whoah....you've called out kpaca's reasoning for investigating Xyre, have him on your PoE list, recognize that the only other math that works out is kpaca in your place, but you still suggest Brinatoo ahead of him?
C'mon, man! It's like you're not even trying at this point.
This is a simple balance sheet. This math supports your own behavioral read.
Look, if I'm wrong lynch me. Wessel is scum.
Such as?