A disappointing flip and Night. The death of innocents tells us far less than the death of the guilty. But it does tell us some things - a tightening of probabilities.
@Winds, honestly, I wouldnt ask you to read threw the garbage fire that was D1.
@Sir Chris lost the throne because he ghosted near end of Day. Not saying it was his fault, but Vaimes was more active.
@Kami, as I noted early day 1, I place a lot of faith in Chris's abilities. So if he isn't hunting scum and finding them, it likely means he is scum himself.
@GJ, read denied!
I reread the LnGrrrR mechanical read stuff and did not feel good (for reasons I will state below) but dang he makes a good point about Chris. Like everyone gave off the impression at the beginning of the game that Chris was some master game solver/unstoppable force and I have seen nothing that supports that in this game.
Show of hands type thing here, how many people unlock an extra ability by being on the throne?
Yes, I gain my ability be being on the throne and it's not revealed what it is until I'm on the throne.
Some thoughts about the early game looking back:
—LnGrrR voted for due to “no faction” claim, he never clarified that he was part of “the realm” which he would have no reason not to do if he was actually no faction. We know grapefruit was town on that wagon, and I’m pretty confident DV is town, HR is fairly neutral/possible town lean, LW is town, and Rhand is IDK. Overall wagon seems pretty townie and we know “the realm” exists (sorry Grape) so LnGrrrR looks pretty scummy #368. Also, #503, it 100% does not say “none.” If he was the realm, he would have said “the realm”; he didn’t, it was a bluff and this is why Grape attacked LnGrrR so much—because he knew what no faction actually looked like (#515). But I guess it could be redacted? But he has to have some information about who he is
—Sir Chris comes to LnGrrRs defense fairly strongly and #424
—LnGrrR keyed in on GF as scum #421; If LnG is scum, could point to working with Rhand or LW to try to confuse wagons. I could see scumchat orchestrating a “catch” by Rhand. Or maybe it’s just a town wagon
—I don’t necessarily accept Shadows change to text as a clear for LnGrrrR because he could very well be using that vague language for the sake of including “The realm” since it doesn’t really fall under a house or faction
—I want a full claim from LnGrrR in terms or I want to lynch him
—Killjoy was really intense about supporting LnGrrR and dissing grape #525 and many other posts—could be team with LnGrrR; Tom did say Starks have scum
—KA jumped on RE’s Grapefruit vote with little evidence
I think RE (?) pointed out during the day when Grape and LW were lead wagons that the lack of movement likely indicated that scum were happy with how it was. The sudden movement to Rhand which then reversed back to Grape makes Rhand look all the more scummy imo.
Grapefruit21 (10): LnGrrrR, 1053nm, Shinichi, RE1031, Lastwhisper, Vaimes, D_V, KamikazeArchon, Highroller, Killjoy
--there are at least 3 mafia on this mislynch. DV I cleared based on his interactions with Grape, Killjoy had a vested interest in voting Rhand which he was initially voting but switched last minute to get the lynch which is NAI, KA seems like someone to look into more as does Shin. LnG is who I feel should be pressured most today as should Rhand.
Rhand (1): tomsloger
Lastwhisper (2): Rodemy, Tubba Fett
Shinichi (2): Sir Chris, Cantripmancer
Highroller (2): Gentleman Johnny, Rhand
KamikazeArchon (1): Grapefruit21
Hunger never voted.
Dang, I'm really sorry, but not going to be able to catch up before end of day. Will try to check in to change my vote/support getting a lynch. Based on the last page, it seems people feel pretty strongly that Rhand is not scum. My read of him wasn't super strong and not super pumped to kill someone to further another group's wincon especially when a lot of people have said that the Starks must have at least 1 scum. KA doesn't seem scummy to me, pretty neutral right now.
Hot take: Wisp isn't scum. I'm looking at his ISO and I think this is regular ole Wisp; Not really scum with anyone, same tone I've always seen from him.
Also hot take: Rhand is. His process is off. He feels like he thinks he needs a scumread. I don't think his read on HR feels genuine.
I do not believe this is how Rhand scumreads people.
Vote Rhand
I also thought Rhand was sketchy. From one of my previous posts: "@Rhand, you’re killing me with all these questions. I haven’t been noting any specific posts, but in general I notice that you love asking leading questions without really contributing your own reads. To me, that’s a scummy move. Like there was one post where you were like ‘if we kill shin and he flips town, does that mean wisp is automatically scum?’ Not sure if you were trying to set him up to be the next lynch without looking like you ever pushed him because you have insider knowledge/know shin will flip town. In any case, instead of saying #1110, how about telling us what you think wisps defense of shin says about their alignment. "
Thought he wouldn't get any votes though so didn't bother, but willing to vote if it can actually become a legit wagon.
Vote Rhand
Hm. That's kinda explainy. So that's a thing.
Lol I have been accused of not having reads and that was a read I had earlier. Also earlier people requested no naked votes so thought explaining was something that was necessary
@1053
I'm sorry if that's how you feel. It wasn't my intention. I don't think I've been tunneling you. As I've already pointed out, I've been focused on other players as well.
I don't know why you want to label me as someone prone to tunneling others with disregard for their alignment. I've given my reasons for voting Wisp. You've done things I personally don't understand, but I'm aware it could be due to an unfamiliar setting or difference in play style, hence my questions and no vote.
Why does my read of you ping you as opposed to the other players who've expressed suspicion of you?
I also think you misunderstood me. I won't stop you from solving in whatever way suits you best (unless it's strictly mechanical, in which case, I'd probably push for more behavioral reads, but that's not too relevant now), but I think tonal reads are generally ineffective (a coin flip and more often reflective of a person's playstyle than alignment) unless used with meta. You stated you don't have meta on people here. It's also why I've been suspicious of the early townreads of you. They are tonal more than anything, and without knowing how you'd normally play, it could just be a NAI thing.
Oh okay, fair enough. Honestly, hard to point to one specific thing. It just struck me as different than the other reads. I think it probably has to do with you being the first to point the finger (I believe after my first post) and being completely consistent throughout. Like with every additional post I felt like you found another thing to support your theory--like you were just grasping for anything that could support it.
Hot take: Wisp isn't scum. I'm looking at his ISO and I think this is regular ole Wisp; Not really scum with anyone, same tone I've always seen from him.
Also hot take: Rhand is. His process is off. He feels like he thinks he needs a scumread. I don't think his read on HR feels genuine.
I do not believe this is how Rhand scumreads people.
Vote Rhand
I also thought Rhand was sketchy. From one of my previous posts: "@Rhand, you’re killing me with all these questions. I haven’t been noting any specific posts, but in general I notice that you love asking leading questions without really contributing your own reads. To me, that’s a scummy move. Like there was one post where you were like ‘if we kill shin and he flips town, does that mean wisp is automatically scum?’ Not sure if you were trying to set him up to be the next lynch without looking like you ever pushed him because you have insider knowledge/know shin will flip town. In any case, instead of saying #1110, how about telling us what you think wisps defense of shin says about their alignment. "
Thought he wouldn't get any votes though so didn't bother, but willing to vote if it can actually become a legit wagon.
So, shadow won’t say what happens if two people tie, but if we have a tie between two people we’re most confident are town, then it would be interesting to see if scum break rank to elect one over the other—that in itself provides information. Or maybe it doesn’t even matter. I would just like some sort of structure to base my read of the outcome. Also, as I think HR pointed out way back, Scum can organize their votes so unless we get >4 (we’re still assuming 4 scum right?), then we could accidentally give throne to scum because of our lack of ability to organize and cooperate. If we divide votes up specifically so that we at least know who people were supposed to vote then there’s at least a modicum of responsibility if people don’t vote that way even if specific votes aren't revealed. Should we sort out a plan before night?
Agree with tomsloger that rhand might be worth voting (for reasons previously posted).
Tom #1335, RE was saying that I was being too mechanical and not really reading people, so I gave a shot at a tone read in response since she’s emphasized the importance of tone. Granted, I may not be the best at it but just got a vibe.
I liked D_V’s #1331 and his logic, but I admittedly skimmed over some of Grape’s posts b/c they weren’t easy to follow.
@DV, I get that this can frustrating but don’t threaten to replace out. If you have to replace out, you can do that, but telling us ahead of time just seems like you’re trying to get a certain response in order to stay in and keep playing.
Also, really no idea why RE is tunneling me. I know I’ve said it before, but while I’ve seen how other people’s reads on me have changed I have felt from the beginning that RE has been looking for any excuse to vote for me. It has just pinged me in a way no one else has. I guess LW has played with her before and is used to seeing her decide to tunnel not caring if she hits town or not. I guess my question is why me? I’m finding my footing and I’ve honestly been giving my best effort trying to put out reads as I hope is evident by my posts, yet she basically says I’m doing nothing. I know I haven’t been posting frequently, but I have been putting significant time into this game so for someone to be so dismissive is pretty discouraging. Like I don’t need anyone to hold my hand, but if you think there’s something wrong with how I’m approaching the game, let me know how to improve. I think have a town who is not at all confident in their reads tunnel someone because there’s supposed to be ‘town confidence’ is detrimental to town as a whole. I’m not trying to add any unnecessary noise in a game that already has so much white noise. If I think something is odd or legitimately catch something I’ll point it out, but I’m not going to push someone if there’s a good chance I’m wrong.
Still not convinced LW is scum—do you think there is a character whose alt win condition is suicide like the tanner? I mean if we get to 9 and need another vote and everyone wants me to I’ll vote for him, but being annoying doesn’t necessarily equal scum.
Response to LW # 1091: I liked hunger’s post in #1090. I think it’s hard not to hedge when you don’t know what’s going on. But then again hunger may just be trying to pocket me.
Addendum: and now that I’ve caught up reading I like hunger's posts in general. Just tone I guess.
LW#1104, I disagree about villagers being carefree and not feeling the need to do anything/write walls. As someone who is not reading all the time throughout the day but rather tends to catch up on a bunch of posts at one point, sometimes every couple days, I think it is way more helpful to put your thought into one semi-organized wall rather than just have a million posts of clutter that distract from the real point. Maybe my analysis isn’t very good, but I’m trying. Also as a reader, it’s so difficult trying to get through your million and one posts with a fair amount of bickering and in certain posts little to no content. I think you’re someone who decided that your scum game is more important to you than your town game, so you try to play erratically, contradict yourself, and pick fights regardless of position because it’s something that’s easily replicated when you’re scum and you can point to your town games and say, ‘look, I always play this way, any catch is not actually a catch.’ You add clutter because you can hide in it, but as a town you shouldn’t be hiding and you have no reason to except to make yourself a more difficult to read player when you’re scum.
Lol, LW just read #1183. That’s exactly your job. Also, you tell people not to disrespect your mafia ability #1185 but you’ve straight up disrespected a lot of other people. Treat others, ya know? I don’t know much in this game, but I’d be willing to bet the game that “I told you so” is something you would and have said before.
@Rhand, you’re killing me with all these questions. I haven’t been noting any specific posts, but in general I notice that you love asking leading questions without really contributing your own reads. To me, that’s a scummy move. Like there was one post where you were like ‘if we kill shin and he flips town, does that mean wisp is automatically scum?’ Not sure if you were trying to set him up to be the next lynch without looking like you ever pushed him because you have insider knowledge/know shin will flip town. In any case, instead of saying #1110, how about telling us what you think wisps defense of shin says about their alignment.
I’m flipping back and forth on Tom. Think he’s definitely playing for an alt win condition, but his read on Chris and Chris’s lack of movement is interesting and seems town.
I don’t at all care about Death in the Family. I skimmed all of Chris’s explanation so hopefully it’s not too relevant.
@RE #1156. I know you all think mechanical aspect is scummy for some reason, but as I mentioned earlier I prefer to read people, not writing. Body language and microexpressions are a lot more difficult to control than typing that is not even occurring in real time. I don’t have that much to provide with analyzing players when you all are bringing up meta—never going to read old games. So much time for so little gain. Thinking about mechanics is something I can do (though perhaps not well).
Like grapefruit’s logic #1211. But trusting what he said is accurate even if his interpretation is not right. Not as strong of a scum lean. Mainly a reactionary vote—but you all wouldn’t understand that? Not a single hair trigger in the bunch here. Agree with high roller that his faction/role stuff seems weird #1236
Unvote
Agree with Vaimes that Chris doesn’t come off as particularly town #1218, but can see that he will likely be night killed by scum if he’s town so no point in analyzing much until after a couple of days if he survives.
I mainly just wanted to test cooperation. Could easily be done with two trusted town throne nominees and splitting the vote to tie + 1 random vote. But oh no, mechanics is evil? What’s interesting to me is RE has seemed uber focused on me right from the start. Like other people’s reads on me have naturally evolved and have seemed to be responsive but she seemed to be looking for any excuse right out of the gate. Seems very mission oriented.
1) It tests cooperation. You have already shown that you don't believe in it and heavily hinted at what you do at baseline in a prisoner's dilemma situation. Info gained whether or not people agree to do the plan.
2) Scum have to make the difficult decision about whether they should intentionally give up power or take the risk. Killing the throne gives us info about the scum either way. Seeing who they intentionally targeted also gives a lot of information. Also, giving probably a scum team of 4 one extra vote now when there are 15 town is not that big of a deal. Again, not going to discuss possibilities or how I would interpret every single outcome in detail before we see who gets the throne--I'll do that regardless and, as you've already pointed out, telling scum exactly how you're going to react is just giving them unnecessary information. Unless of course, you're scum and are digging for extra information?
Grape, be real, I'm not going to explain how I'm going to react to the vote to death. I'll make my case after the vote. The more information I give you (and scum/other scum) now, the more you can use it to shape your vote.
KA
KJ
LnGrrR
Rhand
So, this was odd. Like seems so overly formal?
I reread the LnGrrrR mechanical read stuff and did not feel good (for reasons I will state below) but dang he makes a good point about Chris. Like everyone gave off the impression at the beginning of the game that Chris was some master game solver/unstoppable force and I have seen nothing that supports that in this game.
Yes, I gain my ability be being on the throne and it's not revealed what it is until I'm on the throne.
Some thoughts about the early game looking back:
—LnGrrR voted for due to “no faction” claim, he never clarified that he was part of “the realm” which he would have no reason not to do if he was actually no faction. We know grapefruit was town on that wagon, and I’m pretty confident DV is town, HR is fairly neutral/possible town lean, LW is town, and Rhand is IDK. Overall wagon seems pretty townie and we know “the realm” exists (sorry Grape) so LnGrrrR looks pretty scummy #368. Also, #503, it 100% does not say “none.” If he was the realm, he would have said “the realm”; he didn’t, it was a bluff and this is why Grape attacked LnGrrR so much—because he knew what no faction actually looked like (#515). But I guess it could be redacted? But he has to have some information about who he is
—Sir Chris comes to LnGrrRs defense fairly strongly and #424
—LnGrrR keyed in on GF as scum #421; If LnG is scum, could point to working with Rhand or LW to try to confuse wagons. I could see scumchat orchestrating a “catch” by Rhand. Or maybe it’s just a town wagon
—I don’t necessarily accept Shadows change to text as a clear for LnGrrrR because he could very well be using that vague language for the sake of including “The realm” since it doesn’t really fall under a house or faction
—I want a full claim from LnGrrR in terms or I want to lynch him
—Killjoy was really intense about supporting LnGrrR and dissing grape #525 and many other posts—could be team with LnGrrR; Tom did say Starks have scum
—KA jumped on RE’s Grapefruit vote with little evidence
I think RE (?) pointed out during the day when Grape and LW were lead wagons that the lack of movement likely indicated that scum were happy with how it was. The sudden movement to Rhand which then reversed back to Grape makes Rhand look all the more scummy imo.
Grapefruit21 (10): LnGrrrR, 1053nm, Shinichi, RE1031, Lastwhisper, Vaimes, D_V, KamikazeArchon, Highroller, Killjoy
--there are at least 3 mafia on this mislynch. DV I cleared based on his interactions with Grape, Killjoy had a vested interest in voting Rhand which he was initially voting but switched last minute to get the lynch which is NAI, KA seems like someone to look into more as does Shin. LnG is who I feel should be pressured most today as should Rhand.
Rhand (1): tomsloger
Lastwhisper (2): Rodemy, Tubba Fett
Shinichi (2): Sir Chris, Cantripmancer
Highroller (2): Gentleman Johnny, Rhand
KamikazeArchon (1): Grapefruit21
Hunger never voted.
For now: Vote Grape
We could do 1-9 or 1-10 on the list vote Highroller and 10-19 or 11-19 Vaimes?
Lol I have been accused of not having reads and that was a read I had earlier. Also earlier people requested no naked votes so thought explaining was something that was necessary
Oh okay, fair enough. Honestly, hard to point to one specific thing. It just struck me as different than the other reads. I think it probably has to do with you being the first to point the finger (I believe after my first post) and being completely consistent throughout. Like with every additional post I felt like you found another thing to support your theory--like you were just grasping for anything that could support it.
I also thought Rhand was sketchy. From one of my previous posts: "@Rhand, you’re killing me with all these questions. I haven’t been noting any specific posts, but in general I notice that you love asking leading questions without really contributing your own reads. To me, that’s a scummy move. Like there was one post where you were like ‘if we kill shin and he flips town, does that mean wisp is automatically scum?’ Not sure if you were trying to set him up to be the next lynch without looking like you ever pushed him because you have insider knowledge/know shin will flip town. In any case, instead of saying #1110, how about telling us what you think wisps defense of shin says about their alignment. "
Thought he wouldn't get any votes though so didn't bother, but willing to vote if it can actually become a legit wagon.
Vote Rhand
Why would I be afraid to vote for you if I was scum? It would be an easy win
Agree with tomsloger that rhand might be worth voting (for reasons previously posted).
Tom #1335, RE was saying that I was being too mechanical and not really reading people, so I gave a shot at a tone read in response since she’s emphasized the importance of tone. Granted, I may not be the best at it but just got a vibe.
I liked D_V’s #1331 and his logic, but I admittedly skimmed over some of Grape’s posts b/c they weren’t easy to follow.
@DV, I get that this can frustrating but don’t threaten to replace out. If you have to replace out, you can do that, but telling us ahead of time just seems like you’re trying to get a certain response in order to stay in and keep playing.
Also, really no idea why RE is tunneling me. I know I’ve said it before, but while I’ve seen how other people’s reads on me have changed I have felt from the beginning that RE has been looking for any excuse to vote for me. It has just pinged me in a way no one else has. I guess LW has played with her before and is used to seeing her decide to tunnel not caring if she hits town or not. I guess my question is why me? I’m finding my footing and I’ve honestly been giving my best effort trying to put out reads as I hope is evident by my posts, yet she basically says I’m doing nothing. I know I haven’t been posting frequently, but I have been putting significant time into this game so for someone to be so dismissive is pretty discouraging. Like I don’t need anyone to hold my hand, but if you think there’s something wrong with how I’m approaching the game, let me know how to improve. I think have a town who is not at all confident in their reads tunnel someone because there’s supposed to be ‘town confidence’ is detrimental to town as a whole. I’m not trying to add any unnecessary noise in a game that already has so much white noise. If I think something is odd or legitimately catch something I’ll point it out, but I’m not going to push someone if there’s a good chance I’m wrong.
Still not convinced LW is scum—do you think there is a character whose alt win condition is suicide like the tanner? I mean if we get to 9 and need another vote and everyone wants me to I’ll vote for him, but being annoying doesn’t necessarily equal scum.
Addendum: and now that I’ve caught up reading I like hunger's posts in general. Just tone I guess.
LW#1104, I disagree about villagers being carefree and not feeling the need to do anything/write walls. As someone who is not reading all the time throughout the day but rather tends to catch up on a bunch of posts at one point, sometimes every couple days, I think it is way more helpful to put your thought into one semi-organized wall rather than just have a million posts of clutter that distract from the real point. Maybe my analysis isn’t very good, but I’m trying. Also as a reader, it’s so difficult trying to get through your million and one posts with a fair amount of bickering and in certain posts little to no content. I think you’re someone who decided that your scum game is more important to you than your town game, so you try to play erratically, contradict yourself, and pick fights regardless of position because it’s something that’s easily replicated when you’re scum and you can point to your town games and say, ‘look, I always play this way, any catch is not actually a catch.’ You add clutter because you can hide in it, but as a town you shouldn’t be hiding and you have no reason to except to make yourself a more difficult to read player when you’re scum.
Lol, LW just read #1183. That’s exactly your job. Also, you tell people not to disrespect your mafia ability #1185 but you’ve straight up disrespected a lot of other people. Treat others, ya know? I don’t know much in this game, but I’d be willing to bet the game that “I told you so” is something you would and have said before.
@Rhand, you’re killing me with all these questions. I haven’t been noting any specific posts, but in general I notice that you love asking leading questions without really contributing your own reads. To me, that’s a scummy move. Like there was one post where you were like ‘if we kill shin and he flips town, does that mean wisp is automatically scum?’ Not sure if you were trying to set him up to be the next lynch without looking like you ever pushed him because you have insider knowledge/know shin will flip town. In any case, instead of saying #1110, how about telling us what you think wisps defense of shin says about their alignment.
I’m flipping back and forth on Tom. Think he’s definitely playing for an alt win condition, but his read on Chris and Chris’s lack of movement is interesting and seems town.
I don’t at all care about Death in the Family. I skimmed all of Chris’s explanation so hopefully it’s not too relevant.
@RE #1156. I know you all think mechanical aspect is scummy for some reason, but as I mentioned earlier I prefer to read people, not writing. Body language and microexpressions are a lot more difficult to control than typing that is not even occurring in real time. I don’t have that much to provide with analyzing players when you all are bringing up meta—never going to read old games. So much time for so little gain. Thinking about mechanics is something I can do (though perhaps not well).
Like grapefruit’s logic #1211. But trusting what he said is accurate even if his interpretation is not right. Not as strong of a scum lean. Mainly a reactionary vote—but you all wouldn’t understand that? Not a single hair trigger in the bunch here. Agree with high roller that his faction/role stuff seems weird #1236
Unvote
Agree with Vaimes that Chris doesn’t come off as particularly town #1218, but can see that he will likely be night killed by scum if he’s town so no point in analyzing much until after a couple of days if he survives.
I mainly just wanted to test cooperation. Could easily be done with two trusted town throne nominees and splitting the vote to tie + 1 random vote. But oh no, mechanics is evil? What’s interesting to me is RE has seemed uber focused on me right from the start. Like other people’s reads on me have naturally evolved and have seemed to be responsive but she seemed to be looking for any excuse right out of the gate. Seems very mission oriented.
2) Scum have to make the difficult decision about whether they should intentionally give up power or take the risk. Killing the throne gives us info about the scum either way. Seeing who they intentionally targeted also gives a lot of information. Also, giving probably a scum team of 4 one extra vote now when there are 15 town is not that big of a deal. Again, not going to discuss possibilities or how I would interpret every single outcome in detail before we see who gets the throne--I'll do that regardless and, as you've already pointed out, telling scum exactly how you're going to react is just giving them unnecessary information. Unless of course, you're scum and are digging for extra information?