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Feb 19, 2021Posted in: Mafia
I've been slowly moving towards a slower analytical process. Day 1 is hard, I can't commit to anything really there, but maybe I should have put more stock into what I saw as scummy.Quote from ZDS »I personally have the opposite issue, in spite of what it may seem. I have no certainty about anything, I can see anyone as either town or scum, so I pick arbitrary criteria that I think make sense to try and sort players. Then I go all in gambling on them. Sometimes it works relatively well, and sometimes like here I am the worst analyst of all times.Quote from Killjoy »Town
Grape started out the game with a bang (OR NOT APPERENTLY) but I kind of like his 160 as a reaction to the progression of the game in reaction to his (not actually) daykill. He has a habit of strongly townreading me early, and I think he's been right every time (though I think he was scum once) so it's not out of the ordinary for him to be townreading me out the gate.
I don't agree with his townread of HR in 383, I think it's too early for that.
I'm also slightly paranoid of the sheepvote onto Sloth in 402. In that same post, he asserts that there "should not be scumreads on HR" which, again, might be too early for that but the overtness of that is... kinda too much for scum maybe?
Also, this may be too overt, but Grape claiming that something is a "great reason to scumread Rhand" in 519 very obviously oozes scum motivation, and is thus an oppertunisitic vote on Rhand. The question is: is it too obvious? Grape's better scum than that, isn't he?
Eco goes here because his posting has been reasonable, I can generally follow the logic, and there was a bit there in our questioning of Ignoramus that he was on the same page thought processwise. I also kind of like that he's analyzing the focus on himself. He also does what I do in that he attacks the problem from several sides (see 371, where he tries to get Axel to analyze his townreads that are scumreading him) which usually shows a genuine attempt to solve a puzzle he doesn't have all the pieces to.
I will say I disagree with 384, saying that Axel's long post about Eco vs. Igno is possibly negatively relevent to Axel's alignment. Specifically he says it's a lot of words to say that Axel will do the same, but whether or not Axel would do that is not relevent to Eco's alignment.
So I'm rereading Vaimes and I don't hate him as much as I did. 167 seems a good attempt to poke Grape from odd angles, and is a fair analysis. I find myself agreeing with a good portion of his contentful posts (167, 282)and the ones I don't agree with (284,285) seem to have been arrived at naturally. My initial respose to not liking Vaimes was due to the fact that our reactions to things tend to be the same, and I felt like the incredulity in 350 in particular was out of nowhere and a bit too intense to be real.
I'm not a huge fan of 311, where he says he says his list is similar to Vaimes barring Igno, but later when I ask him to commit to that he just says no. Normally I'd lightly townread such defiance but his response feels less "I haven't really thought about it" and more "I'm not going to commit on placement because i don't want to" which townie defiance would likely be more "you can't make me" or soemthing similar.
The read about Eco vs Igno is fair in 376. I can follow it, and it's not unreasonable. There' s a little bias in it, but it doesn't feel initially malicious.
I don't hate 536. The way he handled Rhand's post feels natural, as if he actually had those problems with it.
Actually, if I'm putting too much emphasis on the defiant non-commital in 311, I kind of... don't hate what else he's been doing.
I still think, even though she's claimed that it's within her personality, the push on Eco is natural. It likely comes from a place of not knowing his alignment.
The list in 327 is a bit superficial, but maybe not unreasonable.
The fact that she's done a major push on two of my townreads is a thing I'm noticing though.
It also is worth noting that despite her having the highest postcount at the moment, I have the least confident read on her. That's kind of in the back of my mind rn but I'll leave her in town because genuine.
I can kinda make sense of his read on Ignoramus in 140, and it's a nice train of thought in terms of possible determining motive. I think that depends on Ignoramus's alignment though, as it's not as objectively true as I'd like it to be. He's thinking outside the box, which is good. I just worry that this type of read is the kind of obscure off the wall read that can be used to recolor scummy behavior to be town. Though, I think if the read was made sincerely, it's likely accurate.
The complete flip on Eco in 469 is fine though. It's similar to the read on Igno, but was predicated with ZDS up his Brexit up to then, which would be counterproductive because he could have easily gotten Eco executed if he wasn't careful. It's not out of [Eco/ZDS] range to distance/bus like that, but if it was theatre wouldn't Eco recipricate?
But then he votes Eco again in 538 and I hate it. It's completely unconnected to his other thoughts on Eco. The read just kind of materialized after an ISO. It makes sense, but Jack's posting being NAI is subjective and I wish ZDS would have questioned Eco a bit more on this before hardjumping on him if this was real. BUT I could logically see that read coming from an ISO. I'm just not a fan of his progression not having a trail here.
The position that Rhand is townish for not being able to figure out what to do feels like a bit of a softball, and I disagree with it.
He hasn't done much this game, but Elderlings just ended so I'm not willing to commit to a read on this slot just yet. I was hard scumreading him for Not Being Town, but he was and apperently that's just what he does. My earlier townread was a bit because I was scumreading him in Elderlings and I could follow his thoughts slightly better here than I could there, so, different play=different alignment, right? Since that's not the case, I don't wanna jump to any conclusions here, and want him to do more before I form a solid opinion.
One sidenote: One thing that may point to a town HR is the "currently listening to" music blurbs. If it's not role related, it might point to a relaxed, carefree HR this game, but I'm not confident in that this early in the game.
So originally, I had a noob town read on them, but they're not noob enough for that read to be relevent.Their playstyle is, by admission, generally scummy (shallow, weak reads) so I can't really read that as AI for them. Thus there's nothing REALLY telling in their posts, though I have the weirdest feeling they're trying to pocket me. From the gut/persisting townread on me out the gate to copying my list style. It's not super solid, but also I don't think it's completely baseless either.
I specifically don't like how they flipped on Eco and Axel in 456 because the read on Axel is based on someone else's read. and the Eco read doesn't make a whole lot sense to me, but again, maybe this is just a thing they do. I'd like to take more time and do research into their other games to see how much of this is normal/AI for them. I don't wanna fall into the trap I fell into in Elderlings where I read HR as Scummy In A Vacuum and didn't check to see if that was normal for them. I'm not gonna let this all go forever, but since they claim they thrive off of wolf spew, I'm willing to let them live a bit to maybe last long enough for a wolf to die to see what they do with that.
He hasn't really done anything. He says he wants to put as little effort into this game as possible, true, but still. He's blankvoted Rhand, and hinted that me and possibly Grape are scum because... theatre revolving around the daykill mix up? It's unclear.
The one thing I found noteworthy is that he stubbornly hugged his scumread of Rhand when I asked him to analyze whether or not a quick wagon popping up (even at Rhand's own behest) would, in a vacuum mean anything to his alignment, and instead of taking it into his analysis, he ignores it, claiming that "context matters". While that's true, it still makes sense to look at all angles, and his reluctence to do that is scummy to me.
Jack has some big posts, which is good. I'm seeing him describe Igno as a "big red flag" and HR as "not a big fan of" but in the following post he votes HR because it's more recent. I feel like that language doesn't match the vote, and I feel like they should have added to the pressure already there on Igno instead of pushing somewhere else. It may well be a vanity scumread on Igno while pushing away on a townie. This is possibly compounded by the fact that in 451 they admit they might be wrong on HR, but don't actually make the decision on where to move the vote. Then he goes back to it in 540 where he's still scumreading Igno, but not voting for either now. I sense the scumread on HR is actually fake, though whether or not this is actually "pushing away from a buddy" or "latching on to executable town" is still up in the air.
Rhand starts off the game fluffing, like the rest of us do, though that's unusual for him I think... enough so that it's worth commenting on but not enough to assign as alignment telling. I still dislike that he decided to complain and flail instead of trying to do anything. I'm specifically against the fact that the one thing he DOES do to drum up content (asking us to vote him) he doesn't even analyze. I can't see Rhand asking us to vote him without a plan to analyze afterward.
I believe that he didn't grasp the subtle context of 'townread vs. read' regardless of alignment. The timing of it might be suspect as he was under pressure to have reads, but for now I'm gonna throw that in the NAI category
His reads list in 346 doesn't mention any of his nulls, nor Grape, nor Terraine. He later says that Grape is a 'total gut read' when Grape asks him. I get that he was rushing, but wouldn't he logically have said that after he said me and Eco were town in his list?I guess that's not super telling, given I don't actually know how much of a rush he was in.
Then he tunnels on Vaimes for a while, which is NAI.
I kinda like his take on Sloth though, that despite his postcount, he is low content. I also had this though.
However, 429 is a weird post. He's interacting with someone he believes to be town, but the post goes from "my reads aren't strong, you might be paranoid" to a series of accusatory questions that I'm not sure are asked of a townread generally. Also of note here, I don't think scum!Rhand makes this post to scum!Eco. The progression from just answering Eco to "maybe you're paranoid" to "why you do scummy things" don't make sense in that context, nor from a logical progression perspective.
Note: ZDS is gray because despite all he's done, I keep not being able to come down on one side or the other. HR and Igno I could come down, but want to wait to see what they do later.
like, I was on the right track for most of the scumteam. I lost it after D1 though.
Feb 18, 2021Killjoy posted a message on Ballade des Dames du Temps Jadis Mafia Signups (12/12)/spectatePosted in: Mafia
I'm gonna join the cdc mtgs game and I want to focus on one game at a time.
Feb 17, 2021Like I said. I don't blame anyone for this game. It's a lesson.Posted in: Mafia
Remember what happened here, and try not to repeat it.
It takes a while to get out of the mindset of "this is the way things are, we don't need to examine further." when you're sure. Eventually you see that the thing you were sure of was wrong more often than not.
Anyway, fun game. Thank you Cantrip.
Feb 17, 2021I'm not mad btw. I was a little frustrated for a bit though.Posted in: Mafia
Also, here's Eco giving me advice on the subject of tunneling. Post 110
Feb 17, 2021...VAIMESPosted in: Mafia
Feb 17, 2021TBF that's a lesson you have to learn the hard way. I used to tunnel like that A LOT. Eventually you realize that if you're too certain, you're probably missing something.Posted in: Mafia
Feb 17, 2021GG Jack. Even if I had been able to make my analysis posts, I probably would have cleared you mostly for that wagon D1. That was a pretty good bus.Posted in: Mafia
I was gonna ask you to post more and maybe I would have got there, but that bus was pretty good.
Hopefully this is a lesson that tunneling is bad and analysis is important.
Not letting people post/post a decent amount only helps scum. The less info in the game the better for them.
Feb 17, 2021Killjoy posted a message on Ballade des Dames du Temps Jadis Mafia Signups (12/12)/inPosted in: Mafia
Feb 15, 2021Because it's probably just grape and I'm overthinking.Posted in: Mafia
Feb 15, 2021I guess my posts can add wait to see if grape actually t does flip town before I try narrowing the poe any further.Posted in: Mafia
Feb 15, 2021I try.Posted in: Mafia
Hey Sloth, in that world where grape flips town and I somehow flip town too, who's next for scum?
Feb 15, 2021Yeah my role isn't really powerful, but it is investigative so it has some utility. Like I said if ZDS had been anything but the resume I got it would clear him, or it can catch someone in a lie if they lie about their role.Posted in: Mafia
I also had a thought: mass claiming won't help as much as I thought because we don't know what Axel was.
Feb 15, 2021Fix your site Curse. LolPosted in: Mafia
Feb 15, 2021Posted in: Mafia
Sorry dude. These past couple days have been a little trying for me. I didn't mean to take it out on you. I'm cranky, and won't bring it up again eitherQuote from Slothful »Actually, I will address this:
God damn, guys. If you don't wanna play, replace. Seriously.
What am I doing that warrants you wanting me to replace? I'm not advocating your yeet because I don't want to play the game. I'm not advocating ending the Day early because I don't want to play the game. I'm not compromising on a Grape yeet because I don't want to play the game.
All of that I'm doing because I legitimately think that's the best game-winning strategy we have available. And I explained why I believe this. I don't think there's anything that can be said over the next 8+ days that will change these facts.
I believe yeeting you wins the game. So I work towards that.
I believe if I'm wrong, yeeting Grape wins the game. I am ok with yeeting him instead today and seeing what happens because that's what other players are more interested in.
I believe trying to change people's minds serves no purpose when it's easier to speed-yeet the vote of you. It's simpler and more efficient.
I believe that if I'm wrong and neither of you are scum, then things are worth revisiting. Not before. So that's another reason to get to that possible world quicker
All of this, including me checking to game constantly on my phone even though I hate doing that on this site, I'm doing because I believe it's the best way to play this game and not because I don't want to play it.
Don't ever presume to tell me what I want.
I won't bring this topic up again, so, you know.
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