3-1
Match 1: Izzet Phoenix 2-0
Mainboard 1x Tormod's Crypt saves me from 2 Phoenixes discarded T1 and slows the opponent down for the eventual win.
Second game, Dismember takes care of the Thing in the Ice. Opponent draws into 14/4 Drake, I draw into Tron lock + Mindslaver, crack - it gets Sugrical-ed, but on his turn I decimate his hand, draw into Bolt off of Looting, discard Phoenix, Drake - keep two lands in hand. He had Gut shot so with that plus Bolt I kill the Drake, exile the graveyard with a Crypt I had in play in response to the Phoenix trigger and he concedes.
Match 2: Whir Prison 2-0
Opponent is new to the deck. I just counter things that seem relevant, eventually slam down Ugin, Ballista etc. It was a steamroll, but I really need to learn this matchup, I had no idea how to play it.
Match 3: Suicide Zoo DS 0-2
Two non games. First game I draw one landers down to a mull to six, proceed to draw no lands. Second game I draw only lands, even with Thirst. It seems like a bad matchup though, because unlike regular DS they have much more creature redundancy (Nacatl, Swiftspear etc.)/
Match 4: TitanShift 2-0
First game I ramp into T3 Trinket mage, T4 Sundering Titan and it just goes downhill from there.
Second game I Mindslaver him, play Scapeshift, sac all his lands.
Prize: 4 boosters. I proceed to get 2x Kaya (PW), 1x Dovin (PW), 1 Foil Tithe Taker, 1 Breeding Pool.
How good is baby Karn? In which matchups is he really good, and in which is he really bad? What did you end up using him for during games and how did it work out for you?
I really like the card but I struggle to see how he:
a) Does not die next turn if drawing
b) Does not end up being a chump block producer for 2 turns only to die for 4 mana
I've played a lot of different versions during the past 14 months and so far I've played roughly 400 competitive leagues plus some paper tournaments. After all this time I'm back basically where I started, but with a lot more understanding of the deck. I always track back to this version because it is the most "toolboxy" version I can think of, and as such is very good at adapting to most metas without being super strong in most. It's a good list to start with when you're trying to change your deck to a current meta without knowing exactly what that meta is.
For a long time I recorded my results but then I stopped as the meta just kept on changing. Now I've started again and so far I've completed 23 leagues, but there will be many more to come. This is my current list, and it's pretty close to the "standard shoktroopa lists", with the exception of my pet card in Myr Battlesphere.
So far the only matchup with enough matches played to even begin to analyze is Izzet Phoenix, where I am 12-4. That matchup looks like it's favorable. The other matchups just have too few games, but dredge and green tron are looking like favorable matchups while UW control is pretty even and Humans slightly unfavorable. Overall my win rate is 65%, so it looks like the deck is at least playable in the current meta. There might be a more in-depth analysis of each matchup when I have played more games.
In general though, one needs to take great care when using empirical methods to analyze the deck. Magic is such a complex game with huge variety and as such there are a lot of different factors to take into considerations. The most obvious ones are metagame shifts, change in deck lists in most matchups over time, the skill of you and your opponent (not to mention physical and mental aspects which might vary a lot between different individuals and days) and the overall randomness which comes with the game. To put it bluntly: There is almost no point in analyzing your deck based purely on the results of an FNM at your local store and then try and make changes because, for example "I didn't draw my chalice this game and I really needed to so I think I might go up one more in main deck". Testing your deck is very important, of course, but I think it's very easy to be result oriented. In fact, as a human I think it's almost impossible not to be at least a little bit result oriented at times. Things like how many lands you want to play might be an exception because it affects all matchups and the overall performance of your deck in "goldfish mode". Testing one-ofs, however, is an entirely different story and requires vast amounts of data. With all of this said, I really don't mean that empirical data is useless. Not at all. More information is always helpful, but we need to take care when using it.
My advice would be to just look at win rates of different matchups and say something along the lines of "this matchups looks like it's good because I'm 46-28". But to compare win rates of different U tron lists in this way and then try and make proper adjustments purely based on empirical "evidence" can be very treacherous. My firm belief is that solid theoretical deck building and analysis is both much safer and a lot more accurate. This is especially true for a deck like U tron, which frequently runs a lot of one-ofs.
Last but not lest, I'm currently working on a primer but it will take some time before it's finished.
Sorry for the wall of text, I can't seem to keep myself from ranting once I get started.
You're Trellon on MTGO?
I like this list, and will give it a spin. I think one maindeck Dismember and some more instant speed interaction is a good call. I also like Gifts because it is so rewarding to play. Whether it's fast enough is the question. I don't know enough to evaluate that though.
I don't like the Battlesphere but I will play a second win-con or a maindeck Tormod's crypt instead. The Crypt is due to the preponderance of graveyard decks in my local meta and would not play it maindeck otherwise.
I think one of the best things that have been added to this deck over time were the Trinket package and Tolaria West. Even with the draw power of the deck that last bit of oomph that tutors, to find the right thing at the right time is really good. How did you find Gifts Ungiven?
A small FNM report from me. Well technically not FNM, just friendlies because the event didn't fire.
1-0 vs Dredge
3-0 vs U/W Control
- Dredge was a combination of opps bad draws and my good draws. I Assembled tron and put down a Wurmcoil, knowing that he will flood the board next turn with the entire deck (but without the haste thing they sometimes play), so I let him do that and just played Ugin on my turn.
-U/W control... I duuno. I played 5 times against the same player and it was never even close. The deck just does not seem to be able to stabilize easily against us because it packs so many situational cards and lacks the raw drawing power to have the right thing at just the right time. I won through Jace, through having 3 of my mines destroyed, through almost all of my win cons used up, through the loss of Academy ruins, through a flipped Azcanta - at some point they just run out of hard answers to whatever you play and you beat them some other way. Chalice on 1 was a beating, sticking any threat, even a Trinket Mage was a beating, Mindslaver was a massacre every time it fired off...
I have seen both Pierakor and Shoktroopa lose to it and I know the matchup is more even than it seems, but I'd say we're still very much favored.
I have watched Pierakor play Commit // Memory extensively and I never liked the Memory side. Sometimes it works, but not very often. Commit gets around uncounterable so it has game against just about everything. but the price is rather steep for the multiples we see in this list.
These can be built on Arena, and played to your heart's content in the limited time they'll still be playable. It's just not worth to buy and spend more money on upgrading them to full power, IMO.
This is pretty much it. I think Wizards is missing the mark on this product. It should be released mid-Standard or early Standard, to give people an alternative route to get the singles and decks they need. For the white weenie deck, you'd need to get the Loxodons and maybe the Azorious lands if you want to splash those.
These are not terrible value by any means, but it's just a little late in the game for some of them.
But it is very difficult to predict what the meta will become after 4 sets rotate out and a new set rotates in.
It takes them five months to go from designing the decks to the decks being printed. Which means if you want this product released in, say, December, they need to finalize the product in July, which is before 4 sets rotate out of Standard and at the same time that a new Core Set is being released.
What might be better is to make a product like this that is Arena-only. They could design the product and release it on Arena with out much hassle or delay (as opposed to a print product).
It would be nice but collecting cards on Arena is deliberately difficult with the small boosters and no dusting in order to offset grinding and stimulate consumption
They would earn money on the decks for sure but lose a lot on people who buy packs to build standard decks. And there are a lot of those...
And I'm reasonably sure that in paper, even if the product is bad, the costs to market are so low (art and design done and paid) that they still make good money off of it, while Standard is unaffected on the whole (in terms of its ability to make money) by their printing.
I dunno. The killer of this for me is Arena. It doesn't take too long to grind to a decent deck and there's no remorse when it cycles out. At this point 30$ is 30$ too many for a deck that's both half finished and nearing the end of its lifespan.
Without Arena it would be worth considering for someone with no cards who wants to play Standard.
These can be built on Arena, and played to your heart's content in the limited time they'll still be playable. It's just not worth to buy and spend more money on upgrading them to full power, IMO.
What was noticeable is that Phoenix nearly bounced back fully after being stripped down to near nothing, despite very good draws and plays by Orr.
...
The power discrepancy was even more prominent game 2. The drawing power of the deck fixes its somewhat one dimensional nature and lets it find the right thing at the right time.
...
What a blowout.
What's happening right now in Phoenix vx Golgari is sick.
Eldrazi was the most winning deck ever since data has been collected for MTG. Free mimics into t2 TKS, t3 Reality Smasher are better than anything Phoenix or Dredge can play by a mile.
I think these discussions will seem quaint six months down the line. WotC is aiming to hijack the format and if Horizons makes a strong impact and is a commercial success, it will set a precedent through which they can easily grow into the role of dictating the meta by the way of yearly releases.
Note that every time they made format specific products, the results were absolutely busted. Almost all of the strongest commanders in EDH are from Commander products, and the cards designed for Legacy had a tremendous and lasting impact on the format. Even Pauper is feeling the effects through intentional downshifts.
Modern has been their sore spot for a long time, being much more dictated by players and other companies than WotC itself while not providing them revenue to scale with the format's popularity.
3-1
Match 1: Izzet Phoenix 2-0
Mainboard 1x Tormod's Crypt saves me from 2 Phoenixes discarded T1 and slows the opponent down for the eventual win.
Second game, Dismember takes care of the Thing in the Ice. Opponent draws into 14/4 Drake, I draw into Tron lock + Mindslaver, crack - it gets Sugrical-ed, but on his turn I decimate his hand, draw into Bolt off of Looting, discard Phoenix, Drake - keep two lands in hand. He had Gut shot so with that plus Bolt I kill the Drake, exile the graveyard with a Crypt I had in play in response to the Phoenix trigger and he concedes.
Match 2: Whir Prison 2-0
Opponent is new to the deck. I just counter things that seem relevant, eventually slam down Ugin, Ballista etc. It was a steamroll, but I really need to learn this matchup, I had no idea how to play it.
Match 3: Suicide Zoo DS 0-2
Two non games. First game I draw one landers down to a mull to six, proceed to draw no lands. Second game I draw only lands, even with Thirst. It seems like a bad matchup though, because unlike regular DS they have much more creature redundancy (Nacatl, Swiftspear etc.)/
Match 4: TitanShift 2-0
First game I ramp into T3 Trinket mage, T4 Sundering Titan and it just goes downhill from there.
Second game I Mindslaver him, play Scapeshift, sac all his lands.
Prize: 4 boosters. I proceed to get 2x Kaya (PW), 1x Dovin (PW), 1 Foil Tithe Taker, 1 Breeding Pool.
A fine evening if I say so myself.
How good is baby Karn? In which matchups is he really good, and in which is he really bad? What did you end up using him for during games and how did it work out for you?
I really like the card but I struggle to see how he:
a) Does not die next turn if drawing
b) Does not end up being a chump block producer for 2 turns only to die for 4 mana
It just seems... too expensive for what you get?
You're Trellon on MTGO?
I like this list, and will give it a spin. I think one maindeck Dismember and some more instant speed interaction is a good call. I also like Gifts because it is so rewarding to play. Whether it's fast enough is the question. I don't know enough to evaluate that though.
I don't like the Battlesphere but I will play a second win-con or a maindeck Tormod's crypt instead. The Crypt is due to the preponderance of graveyard decks in my local meta and would not play it maindeck otherwise.
I think one of the best things that have been added to this deck over time were the Trinket package and Tolaria West. Even with the draw power of the deck that last bit of oomph that tutors, to find the right thing at the right time is really good. How did you find Gifts Ungiven?
A small FNM report from me. Well technically not FNM, just friendlies because the event didn't fire.
1-0 vs Dredge
3-0 vs U/W Control
- Dredge was a combination of opps bad draws and my good draws. I Assembled tron and put down a Wurmcoil, knowing that he will flood the board next turn with the entire deck (but without the haste thing they sometimes play), so I let him do that and just played Ugin on my turn.
-U/W control... I duuno. I played 5 times against the same player and it was never even close. The deck just does not seem to be able to stabilize easily against us because it packs so many situational cards and lacks the raw drawing power to have the right thing at just the right time. I won through Jace, through having 3 of my mines destroyed, through almost all of my win cons used up, through the loss of Academy ruins, through a flipped Azcanta - at some point they just run out of hard answers to whatever you play and you beat them some other way. Chalice on 1 was a beating, sticking any threat, even a Trinket Mage was a beating, Mindslaver was a massacre every time it fired off...
I have seen both Pierakor and Shoktroopa lose to it and I know the matchup is more even than it seems, but I'd say we're still very much favored.
It would be nice but collecting cards on Arena is deliberately difficult with the small boosters and no dusting in order to offset grinding and stimulate consumption
They would earn money on the decks for sure but lose a lot on people who buy packs to build standard decks. And there are a lot of those...
And I'm reasonably sure that in paper, even if the product is bad, the costs to market are so low (art and design done and paid) that they still make good money off of it, while Standard is unaffected on the whole (in terms of its ability to make money) by their printing.
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/1726769#paper
All in on the hate pieces in the SB, more answers, more of specific finishers.
Without Arena it would be worth considering for someone with no cards who wants to play Standard.
They didn't build it, they just took the tier deck and stripped it down.
...
The power discrepancy was even more prominent game 2. The drawing power of the deck fixes its somewhat one dimensional nature and lets it find the right thing at the right time.
...
What a blowout.
Eldrazi was the most winning deck ever since data has been collected for MTG. Free mimics into t2 TKS, t3 Reality Smasher are better than anything Phoenix or Dredge can play by a mile.
Note that every time they made format specific products, the results were absolutely busted. Almost all of the strongest commanders in EDH are from Commander products, and the cards designed for Legacy had a tremendous and lasting impact on the format. Even Pauper is feeling the effects through intentional downshifts.
Modern has been their sore spot for a long time, being much more dictated by players and other companies than WotC itself while not providing them revenue to scale with the format's popularity.