What Dessy's data set is showing (and 500 is probably a large enough number of trials to make a reasonable judgment) is that there is an aberration. It's notable, but it's also useless unless you can identify WHY there's an aberration and HOW that aberration is affecting the play/draw options. Again, hypothesis testing.
One point of data cannot indicate an aberration according to statistics courses and books I've taken / used. His additional games are "duplicates" in statistics, rather than replicates (I believe) and that is part of the issue. To say this is an aberration we need data from lots of other Arena players.
His case is one point on the distribution curve, of which we do not know the standard deviation, variance or anything. We know that DesolatorMagic's data point is not 50/50, not anything else about the population so saying it is an aberration is premature.
So, let's not put those tinfoil hats away just yet!
You're REALLY gonna need that hat after I reveal this:
DesolatorMagic (A youtuber who has been on this "rigged" shuffler since about the beginning. His theories have been proven right by this study. He's also been collecting data himself.) DesolatorMagic has been keeping track of whether or not he gets to play first. After 300 games, he says it's OBVIOUSLY not a 50/50 chance of whether or not you go first. However, he is going to wait until he gets to 500 games to reveal his data so the usual haters can't say "Not enough data to draw a conclusion." this will happen soon.
I hate to be *that person* on statistics, but... This is one of those examples where the average person doesn't really understand it well. I mean, I don't. That said this is a case where I have been corrected regularly by people who know statistics better.
Sure, it *seems* like he should be close to 50/50 in going first. But not really. 50/50 should be the mean of the distribution for a *population* of people after a large number of games. DesolatorMagic is one individual in that sample population. Depending on the particular characteristics of this distribution, there could be individuals who have *1 or even 0* instances of going first after 500 games. That is statistically unlikely, yes, but with a large population that is possible.
DesolatorMagic's experiment is kinda meaningless, since he is only one "sample" in the population distribution. His experiment only proves that his experience is not the mean of the overall population (if indeed the true mean is 50/50), and not that the mean of the overall population is or is not 50/50.
Edit: Basically DesolatorMagic's experiment does not test the true population mean in any way.
My thought on the prerelease is that it will be much more dependent on whether you get the "absurdly powerful" mythic (in this case PW) whereas your opponents did not. It's usually that to some degree, I see it being much moreso for this set.
"Oh, you got {Planeswalker X}? I'll just scoop to save us both time."
Personally, I rather like the idea of a Stormy Daniels themed deck using Gwendlyn di Corci as the commander. Heck, the dude in the artwork kinda even looks like Trump.
Quoted from the mothership article: "... each booster pack will contain a planeswalker..."
Each 'walker confirmed in the set: "each of these 36 Planeswalkers will have a planeswalker card in War of the Spark."
If they are all in this plot-wise, it is surprising they would invest *all* of their IP capital (as far as PWs) in one set where it seems likely there will be lots of death. I guess we wait and see.
C'thulhu world confirmed, complete with new 'Walker.
Yep, just spoiled:
Emrakul, Planeswalker Extraordinaire (8)
Starting Loyalty 8
+4 Exile up to 10 target permanents.
-2 Gain control of target opponent's library, then draw 14 cards.
-8 Win the next 10 sanctioned Magic: The Gathering events you sign up for.
Annihilator 12
This is so absurd I hope they print it in an Un-set sometime at some clearly bogus, rarity like mega-mythic. Well done.
The imagery of the candles being snuffed out is clearly supposed to be "leading." One aspect that I think might be getting overlooked is the fact that the central candle is *not* the last one lit. I would imagine that since this whole plot is set around Bolas, he should symbolically be the central candle. Does this imply that he is *not* the last spark standing? If he is the last spark standing, some writer needs to go back to high school composition class. ;-)
It actually wouldn't be all that unrealistic for WotC to guarantee a Walker in every pack.
Please, no. Please. I will admit my bias upfront here; I have never been excited for Walkers as a permanent type. They always seem super gimmicky to me.
That fact known, I feel having that many Walkers seems like a massive overcommittment where I can only see it being underwhelming or warping some format (or another). I know design tries to avoid such things but their track record on "the mechanic sweet spot" hasn't been the greatest.
I think Experience counters do everything Level Up commanders want to do and more.
Or a mashup - commanders that hit new levels based on your experience counter total?
The mashup idea was one I was going to suggest, but alas I was beat to the punch.
This could allow for legendary story characters (that they don't intend to use further) to be given some type of 'additional growth' or 'follow-up' flavor.
The experience / level up mashup as suggested could even be expanded to other permanent types such as artifacts and enchantments to represent how your Commander grows in ability throughout the game. Seems like there is plenty of design space to be innovative too, just by combining them.
One point of data cannot indicate an aberration according to statistics courses and books I've taken / used. His additional games are "duplicates" in statistics, rather than replicates (I believe) and that is part of the issue. To say this is an aberration we need data from lots of other Arena players.
His case is one point on the distribution curve, of which we do not know the standard deviation, variance or anything. We know that DesolatorMagic's data point is not 50/50, not anything else about the population so saying it is an aberration is premature.
Edited for spelling and fat fingers.
I hate to be *that person* on statistics, but... This is one of those examples where the average person doesn't really understand it well. I mean, I don't. That said this is a case where I have been corrected regularly by people who know statistics better.
Sure, it *seems* like he should be close to 50/50 in going first. But not really. 50/50 should be the mean of the distribution for a *population* of people after a large number of games. DesolatorMagic is one individual in that sample population. Depending on the particular characteristics of this distribution, there could be individuals who have *1 or even 0* instances of going first after 500 games. That is statistically unlikely, yes, but with a large population that is possible.
DesolatorMagic's experiment is kinda meaningless, since he is only one "sample" in the population distribution. His experiment only proves that his experience is not the mean of the overall population (if indeed the true mean is 50/50), and not that the mean of the overall population is or is not 50/50.
Edit: Basically DesolatorMagic's experiment does not test the true population mean in any way.
Pfft... Only 100?
C'mon. I've read the Iliad, where everyone who dies is named. ;-)
My thought on the prerelease is that it will be much more dependent on whether you get the "absurdly powerful" mythic (in this case PW) whereas your opponents did not. It's usually that to some degree, I see it being much moreso for this set.
"Oh, you got {Planeswalker X}? I'll just scoop to save us both time."
There is going to be a LOT of side-fighting that isn't remotely related to Bolas's primary scheme. Cheap shots incoming. Ha!
Agreed. These art works are fun, and it would be a huge miss if they didn't bother this.
Each 'walker confirmed in the set: "each of these 36 Planeswalkers will have a planeswalker card in War of the Spark."
If they are all in this plot-wise, it is surprising they would invest *all* of their IP capital (as far as PWs) in one set where it seems likely there will be lots of death. I guess we wait and see.
And there it is.
This is so absurd I hope they print it in an Un-set sometime at some clearly bogus, rarity like mega-mythic. Well done.
C'thulhu world confirmed, complete with new 'Walker.
Please, no. Please. I will admit my bias upfront here; I have never been excited for Walkers as a permanent type. They always seem super gimmicky to me.
That fact known, I feel having that many Walkers seems like a massive overcommittment where I can only see it being underwhelming or warping some format (or another). I know design tries to avoid such things but their track record on "the mechanic sweet spot" hasn't been the greatest.
The mashup idea was one I was going to suggest, but alas I was beat to the punch.
This could allow for legendary story characters (that they don't intend to use further) to be given some type of 'additional growth' or 'follow-up' flavor.
The experience / level up mashup as suggested could even be expanded to other permanent types such as artifacts and enchantments to represent how your Commander grows in ability throughout the game. Seems like there is plenty of design space to be innovative too, just by combining them.
Shandalar? (It would give them a chance to give it a *real* identity)