Sideboarding with Vial Gobs is pretty meta specific. The first thing you need to know is that Goblins are great in small boxes, but will get ravaged in 8+ round events. That said, here are the options and why to run them.
Strong control metagame: Counter-Top, Thresh, Team America
For these meta types you want to put in at least 2 pump lords in the SB, and Cabal Therapy is strong as well. The key is that your Main 60 should be set up to beat the control decks with maxed out Piledrivers, Lackey's, and Wastelands. Attack the mana and the deck crumbles. If your format is heavy on control with shakey mana bases you can balance threats with good finishers like price of progress, though I only recomend Gobs in control heavy formats anyways.
Scattered Combo metagame: High Tide, ANT, Belcher
These are not decks you can just ignore, since they make up nearly 20% of the top 8's at major events in the last 9 months. If you want to win a tournament plan to face them, and then hope to get lucky. Agressively mulligan to to hit your outs. The best hosers are Mindbreak Trap and Cabal Therapy, but you need to know how to go about attacking their hand. Take out win conditions first, because they can go off early. Just mulligan into a hand that consists of some form of hate and plan to go off fast. Force them to force the combos, and maybe you will be holding a mindbreak trap.
Agro Heavy metagame: Zoo, Goblins, Junk, Merfolk, Affinity
These are premier formats for Goblins. These are why I run Goblin King and the third Weirding in the Sideboard. Goblins have better synergy than most other agro decks, and can force action much sooner than the rest. The SB for these are simple. Against zoo just matron for king and drop him when you can go lethal, but lead in with therapy forcing removal. Against Merfolk just play dudes and force them to play defense while attacking their mana base. Junk is another shakey mana base, but I have yet to lose to Junk in a major tournament even with their god draws. Bant is weak to piledrivers and never know when to go agro because of the explosive power of the deck. GSZ was made both decks slightly better, but knowing how to attack and bait is where you will make a living against other agro decks. Don't drop your Goblin King first against goblins, have lethal on the board first. Affinity is fun, because you just have to have one spree to make their life hell, and most of their stuff is soft to incinerators, even small ones.
There are bad matchups, but I think that based on the types of decks you are playing against you need some combination of:
Cabal Therapy (Tier 1 decks)
MindBreak Trap (Combo Decks)
Shattering Spree (Painted Stone, Affinity, Stax)
Price of Progress (Decks relying on several non basics)
Perish/Nature's Ruin (Bant, some Zoo decks, Elves)
Warren Weirding (3 total between MB and SB is necessary)
Surgical Extraction (this card will be sickness)
Thoughtseize (I have played this several times when I was blind to the meta, and Surgical Extraction will only boost this as a good call)
Yeah, P tutor is really not necessary, but I think even if you run candle you should run a 1 off Retraced Image for the ability to simply improve your draws later if you have to use multiple spirals. Also, it allows for random t3-4 blow ups. I am a huge fan of the card. I was saying that you usually only cast 1 spiral, but you can riffle through your deck faster with the added land. It is pretty solid IMO.
Yeah, I get the mana generation with candles, but I just think that Retraced Image is a much stronger card in the blue matches. It allows you to be a turn faster, and honestly in the mirror i just stay patient and remember that all my islands tap for extra mana as well for each High Tide that they cast, and go off as if I were playing solidarity when I need to. And Mind Over Matter gives me productive use of dead cards that sit in my hand (land/counterspells) while I am going off.
Retraced Image is really the next evolution of this deck. It puts you on your 3rd land drop on T2, which will allow you to Meditate on T2 instead of T3 against fast decks like gobos and elves that can punish a player for misreading potential damage count. It is an effective means of clocking ad naus a turn faster to improve an already favored matchup. Rampant growth in blue is really some good, even with the slight card disadvantage you get from 1 land drop costing you 1 card.
ABOUT PERSONAL TUTOR:
This is a very good call, but the numbers in the deck are pretty tight. Intuition really only works on the first Time Spiral, thought you rarely actually need to cast more than 1 at a time. Personal tutor is soft to hosers like the new extraction (they hit anything in your yard to make you shuffle), and Predict is still a 1 off in good players decks for just this type of thing... this and counterbalance/top. Tutor is technically copy 5-X of Time Spiral, but when I tried it I found that I liked other cards a bit more. I am a much bigger fan of Retraced Image for the fact that you can keep shuffling it in and putting more land in play with each Time Spiral. I went off on 4 land a couple times, and ended up with 8 in play after it was all said and done (each tapping for 6 mana).
4 x High Tide
3 x Meditate
3 x Turnabout
4 x Brainstorm
3 x Cunning Wish
1 x Intiution
3 x Force Of Will
1 x Blue Sun's Zenith
1 x Intuition
1 x Echoing Truth
3 x Merchant Scroll
3 x Preordain
3 x Ponder
4 x Time Spiral
3 x Retracted Image
1 x Mind Over Matter
SB:
1 x Blue Sun's Zenith
1 x Ravenous Trap
1 x Mindbreak Trap
1 x Turnabout
1 x Intuition
1 x Meditate
1 x Wipe Away
1 x Rebuild
1 x Hurkl's Recall
1 x Echoing Truth
1 x Snap
1 x Brain Freeze
1 x Remand
1 x Twincast
1 x Pact of Negation
I choose no candles, though I own them. I played with and without them, and found that, while the candles are simply amazing, they are realistically a win more. After going 4-0 without dropping a game in the most recent Legacy tourney, I am pretty convinced this is what I will take to the next few tourneys.
More decks piloted by top pros would run extirpate if they could, but they just don't run black. Decks like team america choose the artifact hosers for the ability to have an instant hoser that they can safely tap out with. Look at the hatfield lists bro. The way that the high tide decks tutor for the game winning sorcery is by intuitioning for it eot. Now intuition has to happen on their turn in order to protect it. If there is any point in which you are passed priority after the intuition resolves you can extract all their Time Spirals, then they are stuck behind the long and treacherous road of having to freeze and stroke you out minus their Spirals. Believe me when I say that this card is a format staple. I will pay $30 for my foils without blinking, and smile all the way to the T8 of GY recursion heavy tourneys.
Sidenote: Smart players know that your first target should only be the dredger if they are threatening to go off around GY hate. Otherwise, nab the narcos/bloodghasts and you will buy sufficient time to get more hosers. People really have no clue how to hate out Ichorid decks these days. I have enough Legacy tournament wins under my belt to know that if you ONLY focus on cards that look scary and forget that dredge still needs to enable the sacrifice outlets you will lose a lot more than you win against good dredge players. This card is honestly the single best hoser that I have seen for GY based decks, and I highly recommend that all of you snatch them up as soon as you can.
This card, along with Mindbreak Trap are auto-includes in every sideboard now. I am glad to have them both, since legacy is so sweepingly vast. Spawning shell and Phyrexian Canceler are amazing cards as well. Karn is big and angry, and I can't wait to see this sets impact on the format after only seeing the 24 spoiled cards thus far.
Surgical Extraction is a technically stronger card than Extirpate against Dredge. Board in 4 of these means that any deck can respond to a Narcomoeba with an Extraction, and, on the same turn hit any dredger as well. This card allows you to trade 2 life for the safety to tap out. The best part about Extirpate is not that it is split second, it is that it can be cast at instant speed, which is why some people run it over crypt, relic, and leyline. GY hate is purely feel based, and you choose what you think you can protect the easiest. Against dredge, this card will just own, because drawing multiples is never a bad thing. There is no restriction on how many you can cast, so if you draw all 4 you can hit narcomoebas, the two big dredgers, and bridges or ichorids, or maybe just settle for hitting any 2 of the above because all it will cost you is 4 life. This card is a game changer for dredge the same way that Mind Break trap was for combo decks. I just won a GPT with goblins beating combo twice using Mindbreak Trap... in a mono red deck. This card is way stronger than that. You can thoughtseize AND extirpate on turn 1 now. You can tap out for Counterbalance AND Extirpate. Amazing card, I will get my 4 in foil before they are even legal, and be running mono Black by release weekend with Cancelers and Karn. Bet the farm that this card will be at least a 3 of in every sideboard. Imagine High Tide having to protect their outs finally. They intuition for Time Spiral and have to protect it now. Yay for beer.
So I just won the GPT for Rhode Island with Goblins in Portland, OR. In reality we split the finals, but the matchup was dredge which I just hose, so it wourked out great. Here is my list:
1 x Scalding Tarn
1 x Bloodstained Mire
3 x Arid Mesa
4 x Badlands
3 X Rishadan Port
6 x Mountain
4 x Wasteland
4 x Goblin Lackey
4 x Goblin Matron
4 x Goblin War Marshal
4 x Goblin Piledriver
4 x Goblin Ringleader
4 x Goblin Incinerator
3 x Goblin Warchief
1 x Goblin Sharpshooter
1 x Goblin Tinkerer
1 x Seige-Gang Commander
1 x Earwig Squad
1 x Goblin Chieftain
2 x Warren Weirding
4 x Aether Vial
SB:
2 x Leyline of the Void
2 x Shattering Spree
3 x Cabal Therapy
1 x Goblin Chieftain
1 x Goblin King
1 x Perish
1 x Nature's Ruin
1 x Warren Weirding
3 x Mindbreak Trap
Rd 1: 43 Lands
G1 not sure what he is playing, but he drops t1 Exploration off of a taiga, so put him on 43 lands or maybe a bad form of Enchantress. I open on a hand of Vial, Lackey x 2, Ringleader, Wasteland, Mountain, Rishadan Port and win on t4 without much strain. He didn't know the matchup and told me after that he sideboarded in hate cards and took out glacial chasms for another Tab.
G2 was a blowout with lackey into matron, into Seige-gang with chieftain, again with land disruption for his hosers. He had a double factory opener which is great if i don't draw port or wasteland.
Sb was simple. Out 2 Weirding, in 2 leyline. Incinerators are still useful for taking out manlands.
1-0
Rd 2: Bant
My opponent allows me to resolve a t1 vial, then t2 i play wasteland and pass he plays pridemage. I vial in lackey, and untap into mogg warmarshal incinerator and vial takes me to victory.
G2 He mulls to 6 keeping a 1 lander on the play with noble heirarch. I lead with Therapy getting 2 pridemages and leaving him with only Natural order and a Krosan Grip in hand. He untaps and misses a land drop, so on the next turn i cast a lackey after playing a wasteland, then waste his land after it resolves. He untaps with still no action. I untap and cycle his noble away, then lackey invites Ringleader to the party and that is pretty much scoops. I did manage to hit earwig squad to rip out his Swords to Plowshares the next turn which warranted a concession immediately.
SB: In 3x Therapy, 1 x Nature's Ruin, 1 x Perish, 1 x Warren Weirding out 1 x Tinkerer, 1 x Ringleader, 1 x Sharpshooter, 1 x Incinerator, 1 x War Marshal, 1 x Vial
2-0
Rd 3: High Tide
In testing this was a 50/50 matchup. He wins the die roll, and then rolls me on t4 staring down lethal.
G2 was me on the play with an insane start. Knowing that i have lethal the next turn my opponent decides that 3 land will have to do and proceeds to draw perfect and lands all 4 Candles while I sit and watch helping him keep track of spells and mana.
Sb: Out 2 x Warren Weirding, 2 x Incinerator (keeping 2 in for more creatures of course, as well as the ability to cycle) 4 x Vial, 1 x ringleader -- In Comes 3 x Mindbreak Trap, 3 x Cabal therapy, 1 x Goblin Cheiftain
2-1
Rd 4: Painted Stone
I win the Roll and resolve a vial on T1. He untaps and fetches for volcanic casting top. I put him on Painted Stone at this point, mostly because I knew he was a decent player and Painter is the only deck with necessary Volcanics. Luckily i have the double wasteland hand, so with vial in play i can sit back and let my hand play itself. Lackey into ringleader, Lackey into Seige-gang, he never draws a 3rd land, and doesn't run basics it would seem. He conceeds when I tinkerer Top.
G2 He gets the t2 Kill because I didn't have the t1 therapy.
G3 I get a sick read on his hand by the way he shuffles 2 cards to the front When I fetch for badlands. On the play I have the choice to vial, but he looks to have force of will, so i tap badlands to read for a reaction, then therapy (or Hymn if you look at it that way). He thinks about it, then decides to force it pitching intuition. This means he has back up intuition, or has some sickness in his hand. The next turn he plays ancient tomb and painter servant. I know I could be dead next turn, so I decide to wasteland his Volcanic and then play Vial. He untaps and thinks for a minute. Casts top and Grindstone and is hellbent. I untap, vial in lackey, lay a mountain, and destroy the servant and grindstone with spee. Then pass back. He thinks for a minute, draws his card for the turn and passes back. On my next turn I decide that he drew something unplayable by how uncomfortable he was acting. I vial in war marshal, and then incinerator his welder... he thinks about his outs, EOT he taps top to draw then welders in Painter's Servant. No attacks from me to the face, but I attack his ancient tomb with my Rishadan Port on his next upk. He starts to go for top in response, but I remind him that it is in the GY now. He fails to draw a land, which is pretty unlucky for him, but manages to find an Opal (no metalcraft) that he tries to tap to play out a pithing needle. Again I remind him that he doesn't have metalcraft, so again he thinks about his plays and then just passes. Looking at a board of just Painter and opal is not that scary. I put vial on 3, vial in warcheif, cast wierding, then piledriver, and it was all over but the concession. He plays it out knowing that he has little chance of making t8 with a 2nd loss, but dies to lethal on the next swing.
Sb: Out 1 x Sharpshooter, 1 x Ringleader, 1 x Vial, 1 x matron, 1 x warchief, 1 x mogg war marshal -- In 3 x Therapy, 2 x Shattering spree, 1 x Weirding
3-1
Rd 5: ANT
Intentional Draw for T8
3-1-1
T8:
Quarters I get paired against my best matchup in Junk. He manages a turn 1 Hymn on the play, but goes down to 1 card to do that. That card turns out to be Bob, but since i led with T1 lackey and top decked an incinerator I manage to have lackey and Seige-gang untapping for t3. His play was land and pass. I Play out the last 2 cards in hand, Vialing in Piledriver and hardcasting Cheiftain before swinging for lethal.
G2 was not nearly as great for him as he decides that his play is best suited for a t1 goyf this time. He plays mox diamond pitching a fetch, then fetches for basic swamp casting goyf. Now I like a squire as much as the next guy, but him letting me resolve lackey seems like some bad. He fails to find a land for the next turn, so when i untap and weirding him he decides that plowing my lackey is right. We play draw go for a turn, me laying land and him choosing not to (tricky next level plays I am certain :P). I break the stalemate with warcheif into mogg war marshal, which seems not good enough for him to deem a removal spell for. He goes to 15. Next turn he paths? on my upk turning warcheif into a mountain and I play another mountain so that my board looks more balanced. Follow mountain up with warcheif, piledriver, piledriver and attack in for something close to legal age to vote and he chooses to let the damage resolve and shakes my hand.
Sb: Out 1 x Sharpshooter, 1 x Ringleader, 1 x Vial, 1 x Warcheif -- In 1 x Goblin King, 1 x Goblin Cheiftain, 1 x Perish, 1 x Nature's ruin (He sided into Engineered Plague and vial hate like I thought he would)
4-1-1
Semis: High Tide
Same opponent, and again he wins the roll. I don't know if it was over confidence, or a suggestion that I made in the previous match, but he meditates with 3 land, allowing my vial to take over the game. He never got another turn aftar that, and obv didn't draw a force (or chose not to use it because i used Jedi Mind tricks or something) allowing me to cast warcheif, vial in piledriver, and weirding my own war marshal token away in order to attack for 15 for lethal. Key play in this game was that i led with lackey, allowing me to bring in a matron t2 and still cast vial. T3 I failed to lackey in a creature even though I had searched for piledriver with matron, instead choosing to hardcast the war marshal. In hand I had the warcheif already, but i wanted him to think he was safe and that I was playing badly by missing a lackey trigger. Really i was hoping that he would meditate or wish and that he couldn't go off the next turn. It worked out well, and meditate went poorly for him.
G2 was all about forcing him to force my spells early. I opened on the perfect gas hand; Lackey, Lackey, Mountain, Port, Vial, Ringleader, Mindbreak Trap. I knew that I would force him to have Force of will. He did in fact Force my lackey on t1, but when I followed up with Lackey and vial on the next turn he let both resolve, I should note that I also got a ringleader on this draw giving me 2 amazing draw cards. He decided not to try to force the combo his next turn having only 4 cards in hand, so I drew a fetchland which turned out perfectly, cracked it getting badlands, then Swung in with my vanilla gamebreaking 1/1. Ringleader Revealed Earwig Squad and mogg War marshal. I prowl out earwig Squad, which he reads and says "That seems good," and I pull out 3x timespiral. Knowing that he is siding in bounce for counterspells I count the forces. He has 2 still left in deck, but i know he has a high tide in hand (merchant scrolled for it), and time spiral as well. I counted his turnabout and realized that he had one of those as well. The next turn was setting up perfect. I knew that there was only a 2 in 45 chance that he would draw FoW, and he was untapping into his 4th land drop, which, if he drops a land, he would be at 4 cards in hand and couldn't force anyways. I was swinging back for lethal possibly, but at worst i was going to mindbreak his spiral leaving him with only the blue sun zenith, brain freeze kills which are much less likely with less than 5 land in play.
He untaps, casts high tide, casts turnabout, then casts timespiral and goes to shuffle up. I stop him, play mindbreak trap, and he stares at the table for a minute. Looking at his hand, then at Mindbreak trap. He tells me that he didn't lose a game until just a minute ago, and that has hasn't lost a match with the deck since he started playing it a couple weeks ago. Then he starts scooping up lands, shuffles his board into his library and offers his hand in defeat facing down what would very likely be defeat next turn. He was a very solid player, and he knew all the plays, but he wasn't prepared for RB gobs to be packing Mindbreak traps.
Sb: Out 2 x Warren Weirding, 4 x Incinerator, 1 x Vial (left 3 in this time for more force targets early), 1 x ringleader -- In Comes 3 x Mindbreak Trap, 3 x Cabal therapy, 1 Goblin Chieftain
Finals: Dredge
I conceed the win and we split the support which turns out to be better than expected. 4 x Tropical Islands, 7 booster packs (Tempest, Stronghold, 2x Onslought, 2x future Sight, 1 Mirrodin), and a bunch of Foil promo cards. We Split packs, I got the Tempest and he got the Stronghold and Mirrodin.
In all it worked out great. I was happy with my Sideboard all day. Goblins doesn't need a lot of help against most decks, so the SB can be a bunch of silver bullets that are fine if you don't draw them, but better if you do. I knew that Gobs could win fast enough for most decks to not have enough time to set up. Piledriver is the best red card in Legacy right now "not close" as some say. You need to agressively mulligan in matchups where Sb cards matter, and don't convince yourself that a fast 6 can beat combo as well as having 5 with a mindbreak trap and a lackey/vial. Mulligan to leylines against dredge if that is what you need to do, just don't make it easy for them. Goblins are extremely resiliant.
All of the 1 ofs in the deck are great, because you can tutor for the hosers that you need. Sharpshooter is the bees knees against decks like dredge and opponents who play tabernacle. Tinkerer wrecks the tezz affinity math, and randomly helps against stifle nought, combo, and painter grindstone, but is rarely dead anyways with always having stuff to hit. Can hit top so that they have to shuffle it in if they fetch, or force them to put top on top with counterbalance in play so that you can land a piledriver. Earwig can just tear apart good ideas, and more than 1 Seige-gang in your hand slows you down. Chieftain is great for races.
Sb Choices:
Shattering Spree is great because it works though chalice, counterbalance, and trinisphere, and hits multiple targets on the cheap.
Chieftain/King Split is in case an opponent lands plague, then manages to do some funky extirpate or extraction shennanigans. Also gets around Meddling mages (plan for everything)
Nature's Ruin/Perish split is due again to meddling mage, and cabal therapy/extirpates. Needing answers to Progenitus, elves, bant, and zoo, but not having the cards be /sadface panda'd away is really important.
Cabal Therapy is just a must have. Whenever you cast it, your opponents will hold their breath and wait to get wrecked. It can protect you, and can destroy your opponent at the same time. It is the best discard spell you can put in Goblins other than lackey and Vial (they always seem to get 2 pretty sweet blue cards, or 1 amazing card of any other color... pridemage, bolt, vindicate, kro grip, plowshares...)
The extra Weirding is key to winning agro attrition battles, and more removal is never bad, especially edict effects that can give you another dude if you need it as well.
Leyline is an obvious must have, but the amount to run is hard to figure out sometimes. Read your meta and plan accordingly.
Mindbreak Trap is the best counterspell goblins can play. Red Blasts are not good enough against ad naus, and rarely have the desired effect against high tide. Mindbreak Trap is the cats meow.
That is my report. I love Gobs, and I would like to thank my homie for suggestng that I play them for the GPT. You will rarely lose with gobs if you know what you are doing and trust in the heart of the cards you can ride the goblin army to the very pinacle of magic superstardom.
Moat is for Fish, Elves, and other such decks. I guess you can play just about any flyer and hope it gets there, but with geddon and tabs, agro decks with minimal to no flyers have very little chance with Moats and Prisons to work through to create effective win strategies. I was attempting to make this constructive, and since the deck has brought me a lot of value I thought I would put in my two cents.
16 Land:
4x Watery Grave
4x Underground River
4x Catacombs
2x Island
2x Swamp
24 Creatures:
3x Rotting Rats
4x Narcomoeba
4x Golgari Grave-Troll
1x Akroma
1x River Selkie
3x Fatestitcher
4x Stinkweed Imp
2x Golgari Thug
1x Flame-kin Zeallot
1x Woodfall Primus
20 Other Spells:
4x Mesmeric Orb
3x Dread Return
2x Darkblast
4x Bridge From Below
4x Tomb Scour
3x Thoughtseize
If that Landfall creature turns out to be legit there is gonna be a lot of power added to this deck. You can lay a single land into a lot of rediculous. There will deffinately be a dredge deck in Ext next season.
The point of redundant spells in the deck is two-fold; consistency, and the ability to sacrifice peices without losing position. A key attribute of stax is its ability to always draw perms to play once Stax itself comes online. Removing consistency to add trix is always the downfall of a stax player. Some people will run horizon canopy over the 4th wasteland, and sacrifice consistency to add a useless draw outlet that will cost them one of their win conditions; inevitability of their opponents deck out. Anything that cannot be handled in the main board can be sewn up in the sideboard. A good list looks like a lot of 4 ofs:
2 x Tab at Pendrell Vale (Magus if you are not holding 2 Tabs)
Also there are key meta calls... Those are purely up to you, but the SB can tech you into a 3rd Tab at PV, or mirror tech (Charmic Justice). And can handle the big bad bombs with the humility lock.
The whole point of this post is simply to say that consistency is the key to a competative Stax list.
You need to run birds and Moxen and lose the Baloth for the time being. The best card that gains life against gobs and Mono Red is actually Kitchen finks, he persists and blocks 2 seperate goblins. Not to mention he is turn 2 playable about 60% of the time. Lives through Wrath, damnation, deed, and plays off of therapy. Also costs 2 burn spells to get rid of, and makes a bad player look good.
If you are playing a deck that you know plays discard, then you need to have 3x pull from eternity, and if you are playing a deck that is played by anyone who wasn't labotomized as a child, then you also need other SB cards. This deck is a base for an amazing SB that can deal with all of the top decks, which means that it becomes a tabula rasa for some great cards to adjust your fire. bringing in moat effects, and then keeping their flyers off the board (only have Hypnotic specter and mutavault to accack with at this point) you can just plink and plunk. Sideboard smartly, win games instead of worying about matches, and accept that you have 10x threat and it is not a bad play to BD anything in their graveyard either. I really enjoy playing decks that SB into extirpate, expecially when they get them early, because it allows me to adjust earlier to a new strategy. Extirpating Reveillark seems good, but still lacks win conditions.
The theory you mentioned looks like this to me... Land (-1), draw (+1) land (-1) cashseize (-1) Extirpate (-1) draw (+1) land (-1) thoughtseize (-1) extirpate (-1) leaving them with 2 cards, while you still have all your major threats, and have already snagged their hand clearing effect. You may be at 2, but I guarentee that your 2 in game 2 are going to be better then theirs, and you get the next draw. How can this be bad for you?
Smarter play would be to cashseize early, then cashseize after lark drops 4 mana on the table. Then take what is most effective out of the deck, because you then know the method they were planning on using. If you take away their clear path, then you force them to navigate through mental fog that leads to mistakes around every turn.
Lark is a great deck, and at worst it becomes full of overcosted 2/2 flyers that still get the job done, and forces RFG effects at the cost of CA from your opponent.
Strong control metagame: Counter-Top, Thresh, Team America
For these meta types you want to put in at least 2 pump lords in the SB, and Cabal Therapy is strong as well. The key is that your Main 60 should be set up to beat the control decks with maxed out Piledrivers, Lackey's, and Wastelands. Attack the mana and the deck crumbles. If your format is heavy on control with shakey mana bases you can balance threats with good finishers like price of progress, though I only recomend Gobs in control heavy formats anyways.
Scattered Combo metagame: High Tide, ANT, Belcher
These are not decks you can just ignore, since they make up nearly 20% of the top 8's at major events in the last 9 months. If you want to win a tournament plan to face them, and then hope to get lucky. Agressively mulligan to to hit your outs. The best hosers are Mindbreak Trap and Cabal Therapy, but you need to know how to go about attacking their hand. Take out win conditions first, because they can go off early. Just mulligan into a hand that consists of some form of hate and plan to go off fast. Force them to force the combos, and maybe you will be holding a mindbreak trap.
Agro Heavy metagame: Zoo, Goblins, Junk, Merfolk, Affinity
These are premier formats for Goblins. These are why I run Goblin King and the third Weirding in the Sideboard. Goblins have better synergy than most other agro decks, and can force action much sooner than the rest. The SB for these are simple. Against zoo just matron for king and drop him when you can go lethal, but lead in with therapy forcing removal. Against Merfolk just play dudes and force them to play defense while attacking their mana base. Junk is another shakey mana base, but I have yet to lose to Junk in a major tournament even with their god draws. Bant is weak to piledrivers and never know when to go agro because of the explosive power of the deck. GSZ was made both decks slightly better, but knowing how to attack and bait is where you will make a living against other agro decks. Don't drop your Goblin King first against goblins, have lethal on the board first. Affinity is fun, because you just have to have one spree to make their life hell, and most of their stuff is soft to incinerators, even small ones.
There are bad matchups, but I think that based on the types of decks you are playing against you need some combination of:
Cabal Therapy (Tier 1 decks)
MindBreak Trap (Combo Decks)
Shattering Spree (Painted Stone, Affinity, Stax)
Price of Progress (Decks relying on several non basics)
Perish/Nature's Ruin (Bant, some Zoo decks, Elves)
Warren Weirding (3 total between MB and SB is necessary)
Surgical Extraction (this card will be sickness)
Thoughtseize (I have played this several times when I was blind to the meta, and Surgical Extraction will only boost this as a good call)
Retraced Image is really the next evolution of this deck. It puts you on your 3rd land drop on T2, which will allow you to Meditate on T2 instead of T3 against fast decks like gobos and elves that can punish a player for misreading potential damage count. It is an effective means of clocking ad naus a turn faster to improve an already favored matchup. Rampant growth in blue is really some good, even with the slight card disadvantage you get from 1 land drop costing you 1 card.
ABOUT PERSONAL TUTOR:
This is a very good call, but the numbers in the deck are pretty tight. Intuition really only works on the first Time Spiral, thought you rarely actually need to cast more than 1 at a time. Personal tutor is soft to hosers like the new extraction (they hit anything in your yard to make you shuffle), and Predict is still a 1 off in good players decks for just this type of thing... this and counterbalance/top. Tutor is technically copy 5-X of Time Spiral, but when I tried it I found that I liked other cards a bit more. I am a much bigger fan of Retraced Image for the fact that you can keep shuffling it in and putting more land in play with each Time Spiral. I went off on 4 land a couple times, and ended up with 8 in play after it was all said and done (each tapping for 6 mana).
13 x Island
3 x Scalding Tarn
3 x Polluted Delta
4 x High Tide
3 x Meditate
3 x Turnabout
4 x Brainstorm
3 x Cunning Wish
1 x Intiution
3 x Force Of Will
1 x Blue Sun's Zenith
1 x Intuition
1 x Echoing Truth
3 x Merchant Scroll
3 x Preordain
3 x Ponder
4 x Time Spiral
3 x Retracted Image
1 x Mind Over Matter
SB:
1 x Blue Sun's Zenith
1 x Ravenous Trap
1 x Mindbreak Trap
1 x Turnabout
1 x Intuition
1 x Meditate
1 x Wipe Away
1 x Rebuild
1 x Hurkl's Recall
1 x Echoing Truth
1 x Snap
1 x Brain Freeze
1 x Remand
1 x Twincast
1 x Pact of Negation
I choose no candles, though I own them. I played with and without them, and found that, while the candles are simply amazing, they are realistically a win more. After going 4-0 without dropping a game in the most recent Legacy tourney, I am pretty convinced this is what I will take to the next few tourneys.
Sidenote: Smart players know that your first target should only be the dredger if they are threatening to go off around GY hate. Otherwise, nab the narcos/bloodghasts and you will buy sufficient time to get more hosers. People really have no clue how to hate out Ichorid decks these days. I have enough Legacy tournament wins under my belt to know that if you ONLY focus on cards that look scary and forget that dredge still needs to enable the sacrifice outlets you will lose a lot more than you win against good dredge players. This card is honestly the single best hoser that I have seen for GY based decks, and I highly recommend that all of you snatch them up as soon as you can.
This card, along with Mindbreak Trap are auto-includes in every sideboard now. I am glad to have them both, since legacy is so sweepingly vast. Spawning shell and Phyrexian Canceler are amazing cards as well. Karn is big and angry, and I can't wait to see this sets impact on the format after only seeing the 24 spoiled cards thus far.
1 x Scalding Tarn
1 x Bloodstained Mire
3 x Arid Mesa
4 x Badlands
3 X Rishadan Port
6 x Mountain
4 x Wasteland
4 x Goblin Lackey
4 x Goblin Matron
4 x Goblin War Marshal
4 x Goblin Piledriver
4 x Goblin Ringleader
4 x Goblin Incinerator
3 x Goblin Warchief
1 x Goblin Sharpshooter
1 x Goblin Tinkerer
1 x Seige-Gang Commander
1 x Earwig Squad
1 x Goblin Chieftain
2 x Warren Weirding
4 x Aether Vial
SB:
2 x Leyline of the Void
2 x Shattering Spree
3 x Cabal Therapy
1 x Goblin Chieftain
1 x Goblin King
1 x Perish
1 x Nature's Ruin
1 x Warren Weirding
3 x Mindbreak Trap
Rd 1: 43 Lands
G1 not sure what he is playing, but he drops t1 Exploration off of a taiga, so put him on 43 lands or maybe a bad form of Enchantress. I open on a hand of Vial, Lackey x 2, Ringleader, Wasteland, Mountain, Rishadan Port and win on t4 without much strain. He didn't know the matchup and told me after that he sideboarded in hate cards and took out glacial chasms for another Tab.
G2 was a blowout with lackey into matron, into Seige-gang with chieftain, again with land disruption for his hosers. He had a double factory opener which is great if i don't draw port or wasteland.
Sb was simple. Out 2 Weirding, in 2 leyline. Incinerators are still useful for taking out manlands.
1-0
Rd 2: Bant
My opponent allows me to resolve a t1 vial, then t2 i play wasteland and pass he plays pridemage. I vial in lackey, and untap into mogg warmarshal incinerator and vial takes me to victory.
G2 He mulls to 6 keeping a 1 lander on the play with noble heirarch. I lead with Therapy getting 2 pridemages and leaving him with only Natural order and a Krosan Grip in hand. He untaps and misses a land drop, so on the next turn i cast a lackey after playing a wasteland, then waste his land after it resolves. He untaps with still no action. I untap and cycle his noble away, then lackey invites Ringleader to the party and that is pretty much scoops. I did manage to hit earwig squad to rip out his Swords to Plowshares the next turn which warranted a concession immediately.
SB: In 3x Therapy, 1 x Nature's Ruin, 1 x Perish, 1 x Warren Weirding out 1 x Tinkerer, 1 x Ringleader, 1 x Sharpshooter, 1 x Incinerator, 1 x War Marshal, 1 x Vial
2-0
Rd 3: High Tide
In testing this was a 50/50 matchup. He wins the die roll, and then rolls me on t4 staring down lethal.
G2 was me on the play with an insane start. Knowing that i have lethal the next turn my opponent decides that 3 land will have to do and proceeds to draw perfect and lands all 4 Candles while I sit and watch helping him keep track of spells and mana.
Sb: Out 2 x Warren Weirding, 2 x Incinerator (keeping 2 in for more creatures of course, as well as the ability to cycle) 4 x Vial, 1 x ringleader -- In Comes 3 x Mindbreak Trap, 3 x Cabal therapy, 1 x Goblin Cheiftain
2-1
Rd 4: Painted Stone
I win the Roll and resolve a vial on T1. He untaps and fetches for volcanic casting top. I put him on Painted Stone at this point, mostly because I knew he was a decent player and Painter is the only deck with necessary Volcanics. Luckily i have the double wasteland hand, so with vial in play i can sit back and let my hand play itself. Lackey into ringleader, Lackey into Seige-gang, he never draws a 3rd land, and doesn't run basics it would seem. He conceeds when I tinkerer Top.
G2 He gets the t2 Kill because I didn't have the t1 therapy.
G3 I get a sick read on his hand by the way he shuffles 2 cards to the front When I fetch for badlands. On the play I have the choice to vial, but he looks to have force of will, so i tap badlands to read for a reaction, then therapy (or Hymn if you look at it that way). He thinks about it, then decides to force it pitching intuition. This means he has back up intuition, or has some sickness in his hand. The next turn he plays ancient tomb and painter servant. I know I could be dead next turn, so I decide to wasteland his Volcanic and then play Vial. He untaps and thinks for a minute. Casts top and Grindstone and is hellbent. I untap, vial in lackey, lay a mountain, and destroy the servant and grindstone with spee. Then pass back. He thinks for a minute, draws his card for the turn and passes back. On my next turn I decide that he drew something unplayable by how uncomfortable he was acting. I vial in war marshal, and then incinerator his welder... he thinks about his outs, EOT he taps top to draw then welders in Painter's Servant. No attacks from me to the face, but I attack his ancient tomb with my Rishadan Port on his next upk. He starts to go for top in response, but I remind him that it is in the GY now. He fails to draw a land, which is pretty unlucky for him, but manages to find an Opal (no metalcraft) that he tries to tap to play out a pithing needle. Again I remind him that he doesn't have metalcraft, so again he thinks about his plays and then just passes. Looking at a board of just Painter and opal is not that scary. I put vial on 3, vial in warcheif, cast wierding, then piledriver, and it was all over but the concession. He plays it out knowing that he has little chance of making t8 with a 2nd loss, but dies to lethal on the next swing.
Sb: Out 1 x Sharpshooter, 1 x Ringleader, 1 x Vial, 1 x matron, 1 x warchief, 1 x mogg war marshal -- In 3 x Therapy, 2 x Shattering spree, 1 x Weirding
3-1
Rd 5: ANT
Intentional Draw for T8
3-1-1
T8:
Quarters I get paired against my best matchup in Junk. He manages a turn 1 Hymn on the play, but goes down to 1 card to do that. That card turns out to be Bob, but since i led with T1 lackey and top decked an incinerator I manage to have lackey and Seige-gang untapping for t3. His play was land and pass. I Play out the last 2 cards in hand, Vialing in Piledriver and hardcasting Cheiftain before swinging for lethal.
G2 was not nearly as great for him as he decides that his play is best suited for a t1 goyf this time. He plays mox diamond pitching a fetch, then fetches for basic swamp casting goyf. Now I like a squire as much as the next guy, but him letting me resolve lackey seems like some bad. He fails to find a land for the next turn, so when i untap and weirding him he decides that plowing my lackey is right. We play draw go for a turn, me laying land and him choosing not to (tricky next level plays I am certain :P). I break the stalemate with warcheif into mogg war marshal, which seems not good enough for him to deem a removal spell for. He goes to 15. Next turn he paths? on my upk turning warcheif into a mountain and I play another mountain so that my board looks more balanced. Follow mountain up with warcheif, piledriver, piledriver and attack in for something close to legal age to vote and he chooses to let the damage resolve and shakes my hand.
Sb: Out 1 x Sharpshooter, 1 x Ringleader, 1 x Vial, 1 x Warcheif -- In 1 x Goblin King, 1 x Goblin Cheiftain, 1 x Perish, 1 x Nature's ruin (He sided into Engineered Plague and vial hate like I thought he would)
4-1-1
Semis: High Tide
Same opponent, and again he wins the roll. I don't know if it was over confidence, or a suggestion that I made in the previous match, but he meditates with 3 land, allowing my vial to take over the game. He never got another turn aftar that, and obv didn't draw a force (or chose not to use it because i used Jedi Mind tricks or something) allowing me to cast warcheif, vial in piledriver, and weirding my own war marshal token away in order to attack for 15 for lethal. Key play in this game was that i led with lackey, allowing me to bring in a matron t2 and still cast vial. T3 I failed to lackey in a creature even though I had searched for piledriver with matron, instead choosing to hardcast the war marshal. In hand I had the warcheif already, but i wanted him to think he was safe and that I was playing badly by missing a lackey trigger. Really i was hoping that he would meditate or wish and that he couldn't go off the next turn. It worked out well, and meditate went poorly for him.
G2 was all about forcing him to force my spells early. I opened on the perfect gas hand; Lackey, Lackey, Mountain, Port, Vial, Ringleader, Mindbreak Trap. I knew that I would force him to have Force of will. He did in fact Force my lackey on t1, but when I followed up with Lackey and vial on the next turn he let both resolve, I should note that I also got a ringleader on this draw giving me 2 amazing draw cards. He decided not to try to force the combo his next turn having only 4 cards in hand, so I drew a fetchland which turned out perfectly, cracked it getting badlands, then Swung in with my vanilla gamebreaking 1/1. Ringleader Revealed Earwig Squad and mogg War marshal. I prowl out earwig Squad, which he reads and says "That seems good," and I pull out 3x timespiral. Knowing that he is siding in bounce for counterspells I count the forces. He has 2 still left in deck, but i know he has a high tide in hand (merchant scrolled for it), and time spiral as well. I counted his turnabout and realized that he had one of those as well. The next turn was setting up perfect. I knew that there was only a 2 in 45 chance that he would draw FoW, and he was untapping into his 4th land drop, which, if he drops a land, he would be at 4 cards in hand and couldn't force anyways. I was swinging back for lethal possibly, but at worst i was going to mindbreak his spiral leaving him with only the blue sun zenith, brain freeze kills which are much less likely with less than 5 land in play.
He untaps, casts high tide, casts turnabout, then casts timespiral and goes to shuffle up. I stop him, play mindbreak trap, and he stares at the table for a minute. Looking at his hand, then at Mindbreak trap. He tells me that he didn't lose a game until just a minute ago, and that has hasn't lost a match with the deck since he started playing it a couple weeks ago. Then he starts scooping up lands, shuffles his board into his library and offers his hand in defeat facing down what would very likely be defeat next turn. He was a very solid player, and he knew all the plays, but he wasn't prepared for RB gobs to be packing Mindbreak traps.
Sb: Out 2 x Warren Weirding, 4 x Incinerator, 1 x Vial (left 3 in this time for more force targets early), 1 x ringleader -- In Comes 3 x Mindbreak Trap, 3 x Cabal therapy, 1 Goblin Chieftain
Finals: Dredge
I conceed the win and we split the support which turns out to be better than expected. 4 x Tropical Islands, 7 booster packs (Tempest, Stronghold, 2x Onslought, 2x future Sight, 1 Mirrodin), and a bunch of Foil promo cards. We Split packs, I got the Tempest and he got the Stronghold and Mirrodin.
In all it worked out great. I was happy with my Sideboard all day. Goblins doesn't need a lot of help against most decks, so the SB can be a bunch of silver bullets that are fine if you don't draw them, but better if you do. I knew that Gobs could win fast enough for most decks to not have enough time to set up. Piledriver is the best red card in Legacy right now "not close" as some say. You need to agressively mulligan in matchups where Sb cards matter, and don't convince yourself that a fast 6 can beat combo as well as having 5 with a mindbreak trap and a lackey/vial. Mulligan to leylines against dredge if that is what you need to do, just don't make it easy for them. Goblins are extremely resiliant.
All of the 1 ofs in the deck are great, because you can tutor for the hosers that you need. Sharpshooter is the bees knees against decks like dredge and opponents who play tabernacle. Tinkerer wrecks the tezz affinity math, and randomly helps against stifle nought, combo, and painter grindstone, but is rarely dead anyways with always having stuff to hit. Can hit top so that they have to shuffle it in if they fetch, or force them to put top on top with counterbalance in play so that you can land a piledriver. Earwig can just tear apart good ideas, and more than 1 Seige-gang in your hand slows you down. Chieftain is great for races.
Sb Choices:
Shattering Spree is great because it works though chalice, counterbalance, and trinisphere, and hits multiple targets on the cheap.
Chieftain/King Split is in case an opponent lands plague, then manages to do some funky extirpate or extraction shennanigans. Also gets around Meddling mages (plan for everything)
Nature's Ruin/Perish split is due again to meddling mage, and cabal therapy/extirpates. Needing answers to Progenitus, elves, bant, and zoo, but not having the cards be /sadface panda'd away is really important.
Cabal Therapy is just a must have. Whenever you cast it, your opponents will hold their breath and wait to get wrecked. It can protect you, and can destroy your opponent at the same time. It is the best discard spell you can put in Goblins other than lackey and Vial (they always seem to get 2 pretty sweet blue cards, or 1 amazing card of any other color... pridemage, bolt, vindicate, kro grip, plowshares...)
The extra Weirding is key to winning agro attrition battles, and more removal is never bad, especially edict effects that can give you another dude if you need it as well.
Leyline is an obvious must have, but the amount to run is hard to figure out sometimes. Read your meta and plan accordingly.
Mindbreak Trap is the best counterspell goblins can play. Red Blasts are not good enough against ad naus, and rarely have the desired effect against high tide. Mindbreak Trap is the cats meow.
That is my report. I love Gobs, and I would like to thank my homie for suggestng that I play them for the GPT. You will rarely lose with gobs if you know what you are doing and trust in the heart of the cards you can ride the goblin army to the very pinacle of magic superstardom.
Peace
16 Land:
4x Watery Grave
4x Underground River
4x Catacombs
2x Island
2x Swamp
24 Creatures:
3x Rotting Rats
4x Narcomoeba
4x Golgari Grave-Troll
1x Akroma
1x River Selkie
3x Fatestitcher
4x Stinkweed Imp
2x Golgari Thug
1x Flame-kin Zeallot
1x Woodfall Primus
20 Other Spells:
4x Mesmeric Orb
3x Dread Return
2x Darkblast
4x Bridge From Below
4x Tomb Scour
3x Thoughtseize
If that Landfall creature turns out to be legit there is gonna be a lot of power added to this deck. You can lay a single land into a lot of rediculous. There will deffinately be a dredge deck in Ext next season.
4 x Prison, Trinisphere, Chalice, Flagstones, Crucible, Stax, Wasteland, Geddon, Diamond, Traitors, Tomb
3 x Moat, Factory
2 x Tab at Pendrell Vale (Magus if you are not holding 2 Tabs)
Also there are key meta calls... Those are purely up to you, but the SB can tech you into a 3rd Tab at PV, or mirror tech (Charmic Justice). And can handle the big bad bombs with the humility lock.
The whole point of this post is simply to say that consistency is the key to a competative Stax list.
Kataki (Affinity)
Harmonic Sliver (utility and it is great)
Vexing Shusher (Best way to beat counterbalance)
Orzov Pontiff (Bones Goblins)
Yixlid Jailer (Anything that may want to use dredge... Life from the loam and all that)
Yosei (Really Effective with Cabal Therapy and Deed)
Shreikmaw (Really ends up beain a beefer late, but has a nice trick as it comes into play/ rips bridges)
Exalted Angel (Yay for the only white ability that really matters)
Heap Doll (Rips bridges and Dredgers that suck at the same time)
Faerie Macabre (/hate graveyard)
Stomphowler (sac it to the Baloth and then Gen it back to take out another broken card.
etc...
forget wispmare and ingot chewer really.
If you are running red then maybe an avalanche raider in the SB instead.
The theory you mentioned looks like this to me... Land (-1), draw (+1) land (-1) cashseize (-1) Extirpate (-1) draw (+1) land (-1) thoughtseize (-1) extirpate (-1) leaving them with 2 cards, while you still have all your major threats, and have already snagged their hand clearing effect. You may be at 2, but I guarentee that your 2 in game 2 are going to be better then theirs, and you get the next draw. How can this be bad for you?
Smarter play would be to cashseize early, then cashseize after lark drops 4 mana on the table. Then take what is most effective out of the deck, because you then know the method they were planning on using. If you take away their clear path, then you force them to navigate through mental fog that leads to mistakes around every turn.
Lark is a great deck, and at worst it becomes full of overcosted 2/2 flyers that still get the job done, and forces RFG effects at the cost of CA from your opponent.