Against Merfolk I was on the play. The games were somewhat easy. Maybe my opponent just kept weird hands. With the tons of removal our deck feels very strong, the only worrisome moment would be if they have a Spreading Seas and at least 2 Lords to make their creatures Bolt proof and unblockable. Other than that it is very straightforward.
The deck in general feels pretty strong against creature and tribal aggro. A card I particularly enjoy here is Ensnaring Bridge. They really cannot answer this card and it gives you so practically infinite turns against decks like humans and merfolk.
Against Bogles I won game 1 on the play because I had discard on turn 1, tons of Souls and Pyromancer token to chump and eventually win in the air with Spirits. Game 2 Blood Moon was a winner because it screwed my opponent super hard out of pumping 2-3 auras per turn. Also Explosives + Surgical is great against them as they only have 8 dangerous threats in their deck.
Bogles game 1 is one of those must start MU's similar to burn. Taking their creature before it does anything really cripples them, game 2 and 3 this is another MU where Ensnaring Bridge and Blood Moon really shines. As you said, basically locking them out of their game plan.
Not much to say about the UW Draw. Either you manage to rush it with Rabblemaster or you get Terminused out of the game. Pretty boring MU in my opinion.
This is where I enjoy having 2x Dreadbore mainboard, I used to run 1 Liliana of the Veil in side and they have huge trouble fighting a resolved Lily, I believe this is also true for Liliana, the last Hope. Alternatively, just draw all your Lingering Souls.
Scapeshift and Dredge were horrible though I just did not see any Blood Moons against Scapeshift and no Gravehate against Dredge. I feel like those are "Draw or Bust" Matchups.
I agree with your assessment that Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle decks are very dependent on drawing Blood Moon's. Weirdly Ensnaring Bridge is also great against their alternative game plan, beating you with big, green, dumb things. Nothing is better than having Blood Moon, Ensnaring Bridge and 4 Spirit tokens beating your opponent to death.
About Liliana: She is great against Merfolk, Humans, Spirits, sometimes even Jund, the mirror... Either killing a creature every turn or buying back a Pyro/Reveler/Rabblemaster is a great deal for 3 mana. She is easy enough to cast to warrant a permanent SB slot, maybe even MD if you expect a creature based meta, in my opinion.
I really enjoy the role Liliana, the last Hope fulfill in the deck, and I really want to get my hands on one. I will be getting 1 more Goblin Rabblemaster as well. I also think I will be trying out 2x Ensnaring Bridge in SB. I don’t know why the prison aspect of the deck appeals to me, but I will report back when I get some testing done either way.
Wish you the best of luck next time and I will try to make some different changes and get us some data.