Again, my opinion of this game right now, is that we need to resolve the ETR/Tau situation. My concern is that even if I had my #1 choice (Kami) dead today, I think the mafia just kills somebody in GJ/D_V/Vaimes/Rod/LnGrrR/Tubba; and we have to rehash all the same arguments tomorrow. I would rather analyze results from ETR's flip tomorrow. And yes, I do think ETR is more likely scum than Tau.
that statement in the middle about who mafia would kill just kinda pings me as well, why would we have to rehash all the arguments, and why did GJ get added in there? Also why those 6 anyways? And again, flipping someone is not the only way to analysis them, it's just poor and scummy play, to say, "I'd rather not Lynch him today, but rather tomorrow" now if you think about it this way, "I'd rather not Lynch him today, because he's an easy mislynch tomorrow", would that not ping you, without or without mislynch added in there, it still just feels like that...
GJ is in there because that slot hasn't posted once. So it gives us nothing tomorrow that we don't have today. Same with D_V, and to a lesser extent the rest. I mean we could get lucky and they'll kill you, and then we'll have all kinds of interactions.
Also, I'm not saying I don't want to lynch Kami right now. If I'm completely candid about it, I doubt we get him today. I don't have the town credentials to push the case (which is my own fault). I think the better play is to resolve ETR. That gives us more to work with tomorrow. And I think we'd re-hash it to death. Just look at how many people did the WW >> VW >> VV >> WV charts. Like, I get that we're all on a mission to show our thoughts, but it's just gonna go on and on and on. If GJ doesn't come in with the same block of text, I'll eat my hat.
I can see where it looks like I'm setting up mislynches. That wasn't my intent, but that's wine. I guess if we have kami flip town you guys can just kill me next.
I hate how mindreaver is pushing that we need to solve the ETR/Tau thing.
No, no we don't. Its also clear he didn't read diddly squat of what I read, because I've argued a lot more then what he said I did. I used the opinion of Sir Chris and the "Remember when" as supplemental material.
No, you used it to muddy the waters. Half the posts were about a game you played with Tom, neutrals winning with scum, and how TOM would behave in a similar situation, and how Sir Chris felt about it. I'm happy to re-read, but all that extra stuff is just so much fluff. It literally doesn't matter when you and tom did in another game. Show me what ETR or Tau would do; or examples where they've run a gambit; those would be relevant.
A more productive question for you is probably: Why don't we have to solve Tau/ETR? What makes killing Rhand better?
In either your read on Tau or ETR you said, can you expand on that?
Though I really dislike how you somehow
I hate how you used DV in your thoughts on Rhand
I'm also interested in your thoughts on Grr, just because I think he's being typical scum, pop in, just echos, no real stances, just calls the focus on me bad, which is just pure shade, don't know if that was his intention, but that's how it came off to me
Tau self-admitted to lying (deceiving) ETR that he's scum. It's the first thing he did. If I consider that he's really scum trying to trick ETR into incriminating himself so he can spew to the thread what he found, that also would be a lie.
ETR also self-admitted to lying in his response. In the scenarios that he's scum, I don't think he's stupid enough to fall for this, and spew the whole team. In scenarios where he's town, he lied about being scum and what the team was.
So neither been truthful, and if they both end up town here; both are to blame.
As for my Rhand read, D_V replacing in and immediately going after Rhand seemed... strange to me. At this point, it's unlikely that a Rhand wagon gets any traction, so scum reading him and voting him have NO consequences. The only reason I can see for doing that, would be if they were scum partners. That's reflecting in my read. It's obviously a thing that D_V could just be doing something I don't fully understand. So at this point it takes Rhand from blue to light blue.
KJ - I was reading your breadcrumbs early, and I actually thought you were going to counterclaim the neighbors (I thought you were nieghbors with Grape before Tau did his thing; hence why I was asking you about it specifically), but the grape reveal makes more sense.
Grape - Cleared by KJ, who I believe
Whisper - Could be powerwolfing, but we've mind melded enough on Kami and ETR/Tau that I'm fairly confident you're town.
Tom - I'm pretty sure you're town, but I'm waiting for your argument against me before commenting further here. There is one point that I want to see if you address.
Rhand - I had you higher as a townread, but I don't quite know what D_V's attack on your signifies. Gut feel was scum busing.
GJ/LnGrrR/Tubba/Vaimes/Rodemy - Nulls for now.
D_V - Your entrance was a vast improvement in the slot, but I have to say "remember when" is the lowest form of conversation. Instead of taking on Tau/ETR with your own opinions, you're telling us about all the other games and gambits and other people's opinions. That doesn't ring true for me.
Riku - I had you lower, because I wasn't a fan of the interactions early with whisper. Specifically your defense of his meta read against you. But since then, you're been MIA, so you can stay just below my nulls for now.
Tau - The only thing keeping you from my scum pile is that I think ETR is more likely scum between the two of you. Both of you definitely lied, and neither of you played that the way I'd hope town does. Up until your claim, I had you in the nulls.
ETR - I do not think you would be dumb enough to vommit out your partners, so there is that. However, even considering that list is wine, I don't know what giving that list accomplishes as town. Did you expect to see scum!tau partner those people? What was your claim going to look like later? Your defense of that list, seems be boiled down to: The lists can't be right because of math/etc, therefore I'm town. Which I don't buy. I think that assumes that scum you wouldn't make up a BS list. The answer wasn't as important as the reason it was given at all.
Kami - I explained this already, but he's so focused on Tau being town and ETR being scum, and "winning the game on day one" that it screams of inside knowledge. Even disregarding the facts that the team he says he's 90% sure of, can't possibly be the right team (from his perspective). I don't see him looking at all the options and giving them thought. Looks like scum distancing from ETR who is likely going down; and if true might give some towncred to Tau/Tubba (because I don't think ETR give us a real team either way you signaled it).
Re-reading Rodemy, Rhand, and LnGrrR atm.
Again, my opinion of this game right now, is that we need to resolve the ETR/Tau situation. My concern is that even if I had my #1 choice (Kami) dead today, I think the mafia just kills somebody in GJ/D_V/Vaimes/Rod/LnGrrR/Tubba; and we have to rehash all the same arguments tomorrow. I would rather analyze results from ETR's flip tomorrow. And yes, I do think ETR is more likely scum than Tau.
@Kami - (devil's advocate time) How does your view change, if ETR meant to signal that the scum team was: You/Tubba/ETR/Tau and not ETR/Tau/Tom/Whisper/Rhand?
I don't think this question makes sense, as there's nothing that could happen in game that would tell me what someone's intent was. A better question would be, what would happen if one of the flips doesn't happen as expected; that's a hypothetical that would have an observable effect.
If EtR flips town, I reevaluate. Tau looks quite bad - if I had zero additional info and had to decide the next kill from there, I'd say Tau.
If EtR flips scum, and then we go on to kill one of the people on the list, and that person flips town, that's also reevaluation, but likely means Tau is still clear. I think we'd have to fall back to standard behavioral analysis of the rest of the players - I'd be tempted to play the "why did EtR put together that specific false list" game but that would be difficult.
I am asking this, because your reads in this situation were "tonal" (fake) scum reads of the Rhand/Whisper/Tom team, and I wanted to see if you'd respond with actual reads on any of the people in the other group.
I was also looking for the obvious answer that the You/Tau/ETR/Tubba group can't exist, based on your world view. If ETR is scum, Tau can't be. He just made the one-in-a-million play, in your mind, and won the game for town day one. You said that is 80-90% certain for you. Also, YOU'RE INCLUDED IN THIS SCUM GROUP.
Instead you just went and enumerated the possibilities again, which we're hashed to death. THat means you're not trying to solve, and that means you're scum.
I think the best move is still lynch ETR today, I'll be happy to let Tau prove his new ability, and you start tomorrow as suspect #1 regardless of ETR's flip.
@Kami - (devil's advocate time) How does your view change, if ETR meant to signal that the scum team was: You/Tubba/ETR/Tau and not ETR/Tau/Tom/Whisper/Rhand?
ETR, Tau, Tom, Whisper, Rhand...The 5 person scum team?
@Kami - (devil's advocate time) How does your view change, if ETR meant to signal that the scum team was: You/Tubba/ETR/Tau and not ETR/Tau/Tom/Whisper/Rhand?
I thought grapes response to it was super towny...
Both etr and Tau need to be evaluated, that's regardless of ETRs flip
That underlined part is spooky. If you're not town, you're a ton better at this game than I am.
Yeh I keep thinking about this and can’t wrap my head around this thought.
@Mind: do you really not realise that if EtR flips scum and is scum with tau, he won’t flip neighbour?
And that that means that if he does flip scum neighbour, tau is cleared?
It was spooky because it was part of my redacted reasoning, which nobody can prove really, so whatever. But I liked that thought also coming from Whisper, which reinforces my town read on him.
I thought grapes response to it was super towny...
Both etr and Tau need to be evaluated, that's regardless of ETRs flip
That underlined part is spooky. If you're not town, you're a ton better at this game than I am.
Yeh I keep thinking about this and can’t wrap my head around this thought.
@Mind: do you really not realise that if EtR flips scum and is scum with tau, he won’t flip neighbour?
And that that means that if he does flip scum neighbour, tau is cleared?
can't they both be scum? As neighbors I mean?
Yes, and that's a weird play as well. I mean maybe it clears Tau for a while but he'd be tainted for the rest of the game.
One thing that strikes me though, in the ETR response and also Tau's acceptance: Neither one seems to have questioned the number of mafia in the game. ETR just proclaimed the number of mafia at 4 (and it doesn't look like Tau questioned it). I haven't played in a while, but is there a pretty standard algorithm for balancing town VS scum? Or am I reading too much into that?
Immediate thoughts are: ETR scum probably no matter what. I will wait for him to post, because I don't want to taint his answers with my own thoughts.
Unvote, Vote ETR
Also, is Tau is scum, Grape is too.
What ties Grape and Tau together for you?
Only in the situation where Tau is scum and making some crazy gambit, trying to get town!ETR killed. In that world, which is not something I believe in btw, I see it as a way of discrediting the arguments against Grape (Rhand brought the "tell" case against Grape, Tom defended it and tied me as Grape's scumbuddy, and Whisper was also vocal about it). I think that's enough coincidence to point to coordination between Grape and Tau.
But like I said, I don't believe that at the moment. It might be WIFOM, but I can't see scum!tau taking such a risk just to kill a town!etr on day 1. *MAYBE* he would if he thought he could discredit Tom/Rhand/Whisper enough to get suspicion off Grape. There is also a world where Tau and LnGrrR are scum together, and Tau is trying to stop that wagon, but the inclusion of Rhand doesn't make sense there. I'm also not sure LnGrrR's wagon is at the point where I'd make a gambit to stop it. I know I'm not Tau, but I just don't see it.
*PARAGRAPH REDACTED UNTIL ETR POSTS*
In any case, ETR and Tau can't both be telling the truth right now.
Theres a very simple meta for reading Riku, if he regularly makes posts, argues with people, and just calls himself town constantly, hes 99% just town
if he pops in for 1 or 2 posts every couple of days, then you just burn him at the stake
I'm really struggling with this one. On the one hand, you seem to know Riku enough that this might be valuable insight, but I'm struck how damning it is for somebody who hasn't posted much.
Like, I have you in my town column, but if you're both scum, this reads like frustration at a buddy for not posting. I don't think you make this post if you're scum and Riku isn't, that would be super obvious.
What was the purpose behind posting this? IWouldn't it have been more effective to wait a while, in the world where you are town and you think he's scum?
what was the purpose of question this post, at this very moment, this seems like more of a conclusion you would come to after a flip... And I won a game where my scum buddies just lurked, and I didn't get frustrated... Someone else mentioned Riku's lurking so I just mentioned it again... What are your thoughts on literally anything else?
Maybe I'm just reading this response wrong, but why is there such aggression in the part I bolded? This isn't something that I'm harping on, or even something that I'm talking about a lot (and I have other posts on other topics). I want to understand your thought process for this post, because I do not know why you are throwing additional shade at riku like this. Also, try and keep in mind I don't know you from adam, so whatever you've done in the past is unknown to me.
My question is specifically why town you, would make that post. If it was generated by some other lurking comment (which I didn't remember, but I'll re-read), I can understand that.
And the timing question was me trying to figure out something and I don't want to be obvious about it. So, please try and help me understand why you'd mention riku's behavioral tells at that moment (I'm contrasting with Rhand's posts regarding Grape's word choices, which is a similar behavioral tell post; where he waited to reveal until grape had a chance to reinforce his argument). If your observation was meant to help, why not wait a few more days until a clear pattern would emerge?
Theres a very simple meta for reading Riku, if he regularly makes posts, argues with people, and just calls himself town constantly, hes 99% just town
if he pops in for 1 or 2 posts every couple of days, then you just burn him at the stake
I'm really struggling with this one. On the one hand, you seem to know Riku enough that this might be valuable insight, but I'm struck how damning it is for somebody who hasn't posted much.
Like, I have you in my town column, but if you're both scum, this reads like frustration at a buddy for not posting. I don't think you make this post if you're scum and Riku isn't, that would be super obvious.
What was the purpose behind posting this? Wouldn't it have been more effective to wait a while, in the world where you are town and you think he's scum?
Also, KJ, I'm not ignoring your questions, my time is limited until later tonight. I'm off to pick up my kid, so I have to wait until he goes to sleep to write more.
Also, I'm not saying I don't want to lynch Kami right now. If I'm completely candid about it, I doubt we get him today. I don't have the town credentials to push the case (which is my own fault). I think the better play is to resolve ETR. That gives us more to work with tomorrow. And I think we'd re-hash it to death. Just look at how many people did the WW >> VW >> VV >> WV charts. Like, I get that we're all on a mission to show our thoughts, but it's just gonna go on and on and on. If GJ doesn't come in with the same block of text, I'll eat my hat.
I can see where it looks like I'm setting up mislynches. That wasn't my intent, but that's wine. I guess if we have kami flip town you guys can just kill me next.
A more productive question for you is probably: Why don't we have to solve Tau/ETR? What makes killing Rhand better?
Tau self-admitted to lying (deceiving) ETR that he's scum. It's the first thing he did. If I consider that he's really scum trying to trick ETR into incriminating himself so he can spew to the thread what he found, that also would be a lie.
ETR also self-admitted to lying in his response. In the scenarios that he's scum, I don't think he's stupid enough to fall for this, and spew the whole team. In scenarios where he's town, he lied about being scum and what the team was.
So neither been truthful, and if they both end up town here; both are to blame.
As for my Rhand read, D_V replacing in and immediately going after Rhand seemed... strange to me. At this point, it's unlikely that a Rhand wagon gets any traction, so scum reading him and voting him have NO consequences. The only reason I can see for doing that, would be if they were scum partners. That's reflecting in my read. It's obviously a thing that D_V could just be doing something I don't fully understand. So at this point it takes Rhand from blue to light blue.
As for LnGrrR, stay tuned.
Grape - Cleared by KJ, who I believe
Whisper - Could be powerwolfing, but we've mind melded enough on Kami and ETR/Tau that I'm fairly confident you're town.
Tom - I'm pretty sure you're town, but I'm waiting for your argument against me before commenting further here. There is one point that I want to see if you address.
Rhand - I had you higher as a townread, but I don't quite know what D_V's attack on your signifies. Gut feel was scum busing.
GJ/LnGrrR/Tubba/Vaimes/Rodemy - Nulls for now.
D_V - Your entrance was a vast improvement in the slot, but I have to say "remember when" is the lowest form of conversation. Instead of taking on Tau/ETR with your own opinions, you're telling us about all the other games and gambits and other people's opinions. That doesn't ring true for me.
Riku - I had you lower, because I wasn't a fan of the interactions early with whisper. Specifically your defense of his meta read against you. But since then, you're been MIA, so you can stay just below my nulls for now.
Tau - The only thing keeping you from my scum pile is that I think ETR is more likely scum between the two of you. Both of you definitely lied, and neither of you played that the way I'd hope town does. Up until your claim, I had you in the nulls.
ETR - I do not think you would be dumb enough to vommit out your partners, so there is that. However, even considering that list is wine, I don't know what giving that list accomplishes as town. Did you expect to see scum!tau partner those people? What was your claim going to look like later? Your defense of that list, seems be boiled down to: The lists can't be right because of math/etc, therefore I'm town. Which I don't buy. I think that assumes that scum you wouldn't make up a BS list. The answer wasn't as important as the reason it was given at all.
Kami - I explained this already, but he's so focused on Tau being town and ETR being scum, and "winning the game on day one" that it screams of inside knowledge. Even disregarding the facts that the team he says he's 90% sure of, can't possibly be the right team (from his perspective). I don't see him looking at all the options and giving them thought. Looks like scum distancing from ETR who is likely going down; and if true might give some towncred to Tau/Tubba (because I don't think ETR give us a real team either way you signaled it).
Re-reading Rodemy, Rhand, and LnGrrR atm.
Again, my opinion of this game right now, is that we need to resolve the ETR/Tau situation. My concern is that even if I had my #1 choice (Kami) dead today, I think the mafia just kills somebody in GJ/D_V/Vaimes/Rod/LnGrrR/Tubba; and we have to rehash all the same arguments tomorrow. I would rather analyze results from ETR's flip tomorrow. And yes, I do think ETR is more likely scum than Tau.
I was also looking for the obvious answer that the You/Tau/ETR/Tubba group can't exist, based on your world view. If ETR is scum, Tau can't be. He just made the one-in-a-million play, in your mind, and won the game for town day one. You said that is 80-90% certain for you. Also, YOU'RE INCLUDED IN THIS SCUM GROUP.
Instead you just went and enumerated the possibilities again, which we're hashed to death. THat means you're not trying to solve, and that means you're scum.
I think the best move is still lynch ETR today, I'll be happy to let Tau prove his new ability, and you start tomorrow as suspect #1 regardless of ETR's flip.
Yes, and that's a weird play as well. I mean maybe it clears Tau for a while but he'd be tainted for the rest of the game.
One thing that strikes me though, in the ETR response and also Tau's acceptance: Neither one seems to have questioned the number of mafia in the game. ETR just proclaimed the number of mafia at 4 (and it doesn't look like Tau questioned it). I haven't played in a while, but is there a pretty standard algorithm for balancing town VS scum? Or am I reading too much into that?
But like I said, I don't believe that at the moment. It might be WIFOM, but I can't see scum!tau taking such a risk just to kill a town!etr on day 1. *MAYBE* he would if he thought he could discredit Tom/Rhand/Whisper enough to get suspicion off Grape. There is also a world where Tau and LnGrrR are scum together, and Tau is trying to stop that wagon, but the inclusion of Rhand doesn't make sense there. I'm also not sure LnGrrR's wagon is at the point where I'd make a gambit to stop it. I know I'm not Tau, but I just don't see it.
*PARAGRAPH REDACTED UNTIL ETR POSTS*
In any case, ETR and Tau can't both be telling the truth right now.
@KJ - What are your thoughts on Tau's claim?
Unvote, Vote ETR
Also, is Tau is scum, Grape is too.
@Rod I would also like to see your stance on Grape, and also on LnGrrrR.
My question is specifically why town you, would make that post. If it was generated by some other lurking comment (which I didn't remember, but I'll re-read), I can understand that.
And the timing question was me trying to figure out something and I don't want to be obvious about it. So, please try and help me understand why you'd mention riku's behavioral tells at that moment (I'm contrasting with Rhand's posts regarding Grape's word choices, which is a similar behavioral tell post; where he waited to reveal until grape had a chance to reinforce his argument). If your observation was meant to help, why not wait a few more days until a clear pattern would emerge?
Like, I have you in my town column, but if you're both scum, this reads like frustration at a buddy for not posting. I don't think you make this post if you're scum and Riku isn't, that would be super obvious.
What was the purpose behind posting this? Wouldn't it have been more effective to wait a while, in the world where you are town and you think he's scum?
Ugh, I have to learn to preview.