3UU
Legendary Octopus Rogue
When Prognoctopus enters the battlefield choose an opponent and an outcome (win/lose/tie). Reveal the top card of that player's library, as well as your own. If the card revealed by the opponent has a lower caster cost, and you chose win, draw 8 cards. If the card has a higher casting cost and you chose lose, gain 8 life. If both cards are equal and you choose tie, destroy 8 target non-octopus creatures. If you did not choose correctly, sacrifice prognoctopus and that opponent creates 8 0/1 tasty calamari treats with sacrifice this creature: gain 8 life.
I do agree with most of what you say and you can argue that before PW cards existed, some Legendary creatures were highly sought after and others not so much. Now that WotC has precedent in down shifting Legendaries (in ONE set) to uncommon I do not think it's far fetched to see ONE set with uncommon PW cards. If I were to design an uncommon PW, I would have it as a loyalty of 2 or 3 max, with one or two abilities as only minus abilities. They would be purposefully designed to not stay on the board the whole game. You cast them, use their ability to help your cause, and then they go. I think it would still be credible, just not highly powered.
It's not the first time, and it's not a precedent that can be applied as easily to planeswalkers. Kamigawa block also had uncommon legendary creatures for the exact same reason as Dominaria: draft themes. Both Dominaria and Kamigawa had strong legendary-matters themes, and, if those themes were to exist at all in a tangible state in limited, the legendary supertype had to exist at a rarity below rare. Don't expect uncommon legendary creatures to randomly pop up without a similar justification.
The flavor-based arguments against downshifted planeswalkers have been made already, but, from a set design perspective, nonlegendary planeswalkers that appear below mythic rare would only be included if doing so were absolutely necessary to create a desired limited format. The problem is that the massive level of complexity associated with the planeswalker card type itself, before we even get to function, clashes with NWO design that downplays complexity at lower rarities. Legendary creatures, by contrast, aren't that much of a step up from regular creatures compared to, say, the difference in complexity between planeswalkers and enchantments such as Sagas.
Legends had uncommon legends. The only downshift in rarity was the number of powerful uncommon legends. I think Legends had maybe one playable uncommon legendary creature (sunastian falconer - and by playable I mean playable in the context of the game back then), but the majority of the legendary creatures from that era were just special looking commons (lady of the mountain was essentially craw wurm)
I really don't see a single jump-start card that makes me excited. I think quite literally every jump start card costs 1 too much. Quasiduplicate? Cackling counterpart. And that is the most efficient. Browbeat...I mean Risk Factor is for commander I guess - most of the time you can find someone that isn't willing to take 4 damage to help the other 2 players. Otherwise, it is just a lava spike and a lava axe that is split into 3cc, 3cc. Radical idea? I'd rather just play 2 cycle lands instead of casting idea and discarding a land later.
I rather think that mentor will have an impact, and Aurelia is being severely undervalued.
Surveil...yeah...we pretty much know how good that is.
Undergrowth - like mentor, I think undergrowth is getting a bad rap. Most undergrowth are competitively costed. I could potentially envision a standard deck if there are a couple more enablers. If there was redundancy to stitcher's supplier and glowspore shaman (imagine running 8 of each) - and a few decent surveil cards, even innocuous cards like golgari raiders are suddenly terrifying.
Convoke. Convoke is what it is. Everything about convoke is clunky and swingy. I cannot imagine more than a couple cards (*cough* venerated loxodon)with convoke having any meaningful constructed impact.
A few cards that I think are potentially good - and everything depends on what is left to be spoiled.
Renegade Steam-kin - this guy can be a 3/3 or 4/4 on turn 3 when you swing with it. AND it enables some rather insane turn 4 plays.
Why is it repeated three times? It seems like they could've gone a different route on the templating here. It's bonkers though, means you can target the same creature three times effectively giving that creature +9/+9.
I would have much rathered if it said "Choose three, you may choose the same mode more than once"
What's funny is I love this art - I think it will be a stunning foil. Any of the old-schoolers here remember foglio art? 1/2 the community LOVED foglio, 1/2 the community despised foglio. I am actually rather convinced that eureka is the rarest (actual set - not garfield exclusives) card in magic because of the sheer number of them I saw torn up.
Actually, since this card is unblockable, I can see running it WITH Yuriko. If the enemy has a big nasty out, you get to remove it, otherwise you jut use Etrata to Ninjutsu Yuriko in. Basically, use Etrata as a Ninjutsu enabler who also happens to have a situationally good removal attached to it, without caring too much about the alt wincon.
Or, to borrow my favorite kamigawa limited trick - give her first strike, deal damage, etrata trigger, ninjitsu. Do 3 damage, exile a critter, bounce her for her next mission and get your ninjitsu "double strike" damage and trigger...
but if there isn't a card there that is a great play for you, you're still taking things away from the other player. and most decks aren't going to be super heavyy on things that are BAD to cast. Take their Hollow One, it denies them that resource, and if you get a single discard discount or even if you pay the full cmc, a threat light control deck won't turn down a 4/4 when you have mana and nothing much to do with it, right?
1. This is the same trap that Mill aficionados fall into. Since none of the 3 cards go back on top of the library, you aren't leaving them to draw bad cards and so you effectively aren't denying any resources. The top of the library is in effect no different than the bottom if you aren't able to manipulate their draws. (There are niche cases where this isn't true, like if they make bad decisions with a Serum Visions or Jace Brainstorm, but there are also cases where putting things in their graveyard is also advantageous for them, so I'd call it a wash.)
2. I will never argue against getting another resource, but since we're comparing Thief to Shadowmage Infiltrator, we're talking about the difference between drawing from a deck built around someone else's synergies, and drawing from your own, where every card presumably contributes to your gameplan. If you're playing a control/midrange mirror, Thief is probably better by merit of his selection, but against the rest of the format, you probably would rather stick with your own cards.
Plus we're still talking about a 3-mana 2/2 in Modern without an ETB effect or built-in protection/resiliency. The closest thing to that which sees any play is Magus of the Moon, which just turns decks off when he hits the board.
Quoted for truth - I nearly wrote entirely the same thing. The psychological implications of being milled is a very, very real phenomenon. In my commander group, a mill effect (or sometimes even something like a wheel effect) draws the ire of a couple players in this group. People don't realize that their deck is a resource, just like life, and it only matters when that resource is 0 - and in the absence of tutor/selection effects, the card at the top of your deck is no different from the bottom card. Furthermore, you can use your opponent's mill effects to give you information regarding the probabilities of your next draws. If your opponent milled 2 wrath of gods from your deck, you may choose to play your creatures, knowing that you have less reason to hold them in hand for a 1 sided wrath followed by a quick recovery. What occurs however, is when that mill hits a solution/game-winning card, the milled player feels that the "millstone won the game", but when it hits two blanks (land, land), they don't have the feeling the millstone lost the game for their opponent.
I love this card (hate the artwork, but whatever), but in the standard we have seen lately, we need more value/resiliency at 3 mana. I also feel that comparisons to Gonti are flawed - guaranteed vs potential value, and that gonti was a (mediocre) answer to things like carnage titan. It will be fairly bomby in limited, but so will 3 dozen other rares and mythics.
3UU
Legendary Octopus Rogue
When Prognoctopus enters the battlefield choose an opponent and an outcome (win/lose/tie). Reveal the top card of that player's library, as well as your own. If the card revealed by the opponent has a lower caster cost, and you chose win, draw 8 cards. If the card has a higher casting cost and you chose lose, gain 8 life. If both cards are equal and you choose tie, destroy 8 target non-octopus creatures. If you did not choose correctly, sacrifice prognoctopus and that opponent creates 8 0/1 tasty calamari treats with sacrifice this creature: gain 8 life.
0/8
Legends had uncommon legends. The only downshift in rarity was the number of powerful uncommon legends. I think Legends had maybe one playable uncommon legendary creature (sunastian falconer - and by playable I mean playable in the context of the game back then), but the majority of the legendary creatures from that era were just special looking commons (lady of the mountain was essentially craw wurm)
I rather think that mentor will have an impact, and Aurelia is being severely undervalued.
Surveil...yeah...we pretty much know how good that is.
Undergrowth - like mentor, I think undergrowth is getting a bad rap. Most undergrowth are competitively costed. I could potentially envision a standard deck if there are a couple more enablers. If there was redundancy to stitcher's supplier and glowspore shaman (imagine running 8 of each) - and a few decent surveil cards, even innocuous cards like golgari raiders are suddenly terrifying.
Convoke. Convoke is what it is. Everything about convoke is clunky and swingy. I cannot imagine more than a couple cards (*cough* venerated loxodon)with convoke having any meaningful constructed impact.
A few cards that I think are potentially good - and everything depends on what is left to be spoiled.
Renegade Steam-kin - this guy can be a 3/3 or 4/4 on turn 3 when you swing with it. AND it enables some rather insane turn 4 plays.
circuitous route - if explosive vegetation could impact standard, perhaps a better version has a place
I would have much rathered if it said "Choose three, you may choose the same mode more than once"
Or, to borrow my favorite kamigawa limited trick - give her first strike, deal damage, etrata trigger, ninjitsu. Do 3 damage, exile a critter, bounce her for her next mission and get your ninjitsu "double strike" damage and trigger...
Quoted for truth - I nearly wrote entirely the same thing. The psychological implications of being milled is a very, very real phenomenon. In my commander group, a mill effect (or sometimes even something like a wheel effect) draws the ire of a couple players in this group. People don't realize that their deck is a resource, just like life, and it only matters when that resource is 0 - and in the absence of tutor/selection effects, the card at the top of your deck is no different from the bottom card. Furthermore, you can use your opponent's mill effects to give you information regarding the probabilities of your next draws. If your opponent milled 2 wrath of gods from your deck, you may choose to play your creatures, knowing that you have less reason to hold them in hand for a 1 sided wrath followed by a quick recovery. What occurs however, is when that mill hits a solution/game-winning card, the milled player feels that the "millstone won the game", but when it hits two blanks (land, land), they don't have the feeling the millstone lost the game for their opponent.
I love this card (hate the artwork, but whatever), but in the standard we have seen lately, we need more value/resiliency at 3 mana. I also feel that comparisons to Gonti are flawed - guaranteed vs potential value, and that gonti was a (mediocre) answer to things like carnage titan. It will be fairly bomby in limited, but so will 3 dozen other rares and mythics.