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  • 2

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    ^ Yep, I agree that playing exactly two colors—no more, no less—is generally advisable if you’re trying to interact heavily in Modern. Golgari is very well positioned right now; in truth, it has been since the printing of Trophy, despite conventional wisdom insisting that BGx midrange is bad or unplayable right up until about a month ago!

    We’re certainly at a bit of an impasse. The prospect of Horizons is both a blessing and a curse, with the product itself (when considered in tandem with recent design trends) boding very well for the format, while at the same time its imminent arrival acts as a check on the corrective action that may or may not otherwise be taken more quickly.

    For me, it’s hard to see a future in which Looting impacts Modern positively on the whole. The graveyard is a crucial zone insofar as interesting gameplay and design is concerned; making all-in graveyard decks too strong and too consistent not only leads to binary matchups and games which devolve into hunts for sideboard hosers, it also lays heavy restrictions on potentially novel designs in future sets.

    I therefore lean toward preferring a Looting ban rather than a ban on payoffs like Phoenix, Chill, or Bloodghast...however, my stance on this is not set in stone, and as always my utmost preference is for new answers instead of bans!
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on The Rock
    Makes sense to me, kaster! Personally, I choose to dedicate just one slot to the four-mana sweepers, and I’ve been on the fence between the two for a while. Moving forward I’m very strongly considering increasing my Dark Confidant count from 3 to 4—I’ll actually be sitting down with my list today to see whether I can make that change without upsetting the balance of my list—and if the 4th Bob comes aboard, I think that’ll be my cue to finally pivot from Languish to Damnation. Such a close call!


    What are people’s impressions of the newly-spoiled Cabal Therapist? I suppose the “beginning of your precombat main phase” clause sorta kills the prospect of its applications for us as part of an effective, traditional curve. Regardless, it’s interesting design—just wish we weren’t waiting until May for more Horizons spoilers!
    Posted in: Midrange
  • 2

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 21/01/2019)
    Quote from Wraithpk »
    So, does this GP result solidify for anyone else that GB Rock is the best build of the GBx Midrange decks? I know people have been trying to force Jund for the past year, but the consistency and power you get from the two color manabase seems to be where it's at.


    In my opinion, Golgari has been better positioned than Jund overall since the printing of Trophy, and this GP result sure doesn’t hurt the case!

    Conversations along these lines happens with great frequency:

    - What are the advantages to playing straight BG over Jund (or Abzan/Sultai)?
    - A relatively painless, more consistent, and utility-rich mana base, mostly.
    - Well yeah, but is a better mana base really worth giving up Bolt/BBE/K-Command/Ravine/Path/Souls/Stony Silence?
    - Yep, it sure is!

    The beneficial ripple effects of such a mana base are legion, especially in the context of a midrange deck. Being just two colors saves a significant number of life points against aggro decks. 3-4 Fields of Ruin grants all kinds of edges against big mana decks, manlands, 3c goodstuff decks, and decks which play few basics (and the printing of Trophy has made Field even better). You’re very unlikely to lose to your own mana base via color screw. You get to play Treetop Village, which is a game-winning card. You’ve got a higher density of G sources for Scavenging Ooze relative to other BGx decks. You’re quite resilient to Blood Moon relative to other BGx decks.

    I could go on, but woe to those who underestimate the importance of a clean and powerful mana base in a midrange deck. Grin
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on The Rock
    Quote from FlyingDelver »
    @Grim_Flayer First of all congrats to your live league, it is really enjoyable to watch you play, keep it up!

    Concerning the Amulet matchup, the thing to keep in mind is that they will and should board out Amulets against you after game 1. The reason is, that as we are not a very fast deck, they don't need to be fast either (as Amulet essentially only generates tempo and acceleration). So, I would personally not bother about Amulets after Game 1. However, this is not a complete clear thing to do also from the AMulet players perspective. Some people still might bring them in. In such as case I like to keep Decays if you run them. Decays are more reliable than Push to kill an Azusa, and Decay can also kill Scout and the Amulet if they really leave them in. I think from our deck the weakest cards are Push and Scooze. Push does kill Scout and Azusa, but I think most of the time those are not the realy problematic cards. The cards you loose to is the Titan itself or Hornet Queen. We want all our TS, Trophies, LoTV and ideally Damnation for potential killing of the endgame threats. The goal of Amulet is just to go bigger than we do in chaining titans. We want to disrupt them and drop a fast goyf before they can cast Hornet queen.

    I would probably keep CB, as you can kill Azusa, Scout and also take Pacts/Stirrings potentially.

    EE is only really appealing to clear up Hornet Queen Tokens imo. Other than that I think EE is not worth it.

    Push is rather weak, but not sure how many to cut. I think somewhere around 1-2 copies to cut is correct. I guess having access to a couple copies is nice.

    Yeah I would cut Kalitas and 1 Ooze also.

    The matchup is unfavourable for us though.

    Good luck!


    Thanks for the kind words my dude, and thanks even more for all the great work you’ve done and continue to do here! I’d probably still be struggling with the learning curve of this deck if it wasn’t for your primer and posts.

    Sounds like we’re on the same page with regard to how to approach the Amulet matchup. I’m definitely leaving in my Decay; I agree that it’s a high value card. Interesting insight about high level Amulet players siding out the namesake card; that affirms my decision to omit EE.

    Yeah, Push is a tricky one to evaluate. I can agree that cutting 1-2 seems correct, depending on what else you have to bring in (and also depending on how well you know the opponent’s exact build, for instance if you resolve a Surgical G2 and then play G3).

    Damnation makes sense. I don’t have one in my current 75, but I think I would have brought one in if I’d had access to it. I can also agree that the matchup is unfavorable, but I don’t think it’s all that bad post-Trophy. G1 we have our usual combination of clock and disruption that serves us well against most combo decks (although their big mana-style inevitability is a countervailing factor) and post-side we improve immensely with access to Fulminator and some other great tools.

    After Trophy, it feels like no matchup is consistently all that bad for us (except maybe Living End lol).
    Posted in: Midrange
  • 1

    posted a message on Taking Turns
    I’ve been away from the archetype for a bit now, and I don’t have any real experience on UR Turns, buuuuuttt...

    https://scryfall.com/card/rna/99/electrodominance

    This enables Ancestral Vision (which I’ve always felt is a reasonable card in Turns generally) at Instant speed and immediate resolution, and so far as using the card itself to keep the board clear or go upstairs, you could do worse. Intriguing!
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Established
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    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from sicsmoo »
    Quote from Grim_Flayer »
    ^Interesing data, guys.

    On a related note: I once read (can’t remember where) some statistics from a player with an enormous amount of matches on the same deck reporting a ~5% (from memory) winrate decline when comparing Friendly League results with those of Competitive Leagues. In other words, a pilot whose winrate is 60% over the course of many Friendlies could reasonably expect to clock in around 55% in Comps.

    Does anyone here have supporting or countervailing data/experiences?
    Interesting you should bring that up, as I set out to test that exact thing this month. I recently talked to a Storm grinder a bit who had reported a 68% win rate in Friendly over around 1000 matches, and it really piqued my interest; it seemed almost too good to be true. The vast majority of my recorded games with Tron prior to this month have been played in Comp leagues (around 1900) and my winrate in that sample is right around 60%. In December I've played the deck exclusively in the Friendly room, and over 240 matches so far my winrate is 65.5%. So I can definitely see the ~5% figure being accurate. For me it's closer to 6% as things stand now.

    In terms of why it's that much easier, I've noticed a few things:

    There's a higher percentage of homebrew/rogue decks. Not tons, but it's maybe 6% in Friendly as opposed to like 3% in Comp. I'm talking about decks like Mono Blue Boomerangs or GW Midrange with Search For Tomorrow and Farseek to "synergize" with Tireless Tracker and Courser of Kruphix, with no disruption of any kind. These are almost always free wins, and there are more of them.

    There's a higher occurrence of loose/suboptimal plays. Quite a few times this month I saw my opponents do things like crack fetches main phase getting a tapped shockland, or firing off instant speed burn spells main phase, when they could hold the mana up and represent any number of things. I don't often see things like that in the Comp leagues.

    There's also a higher occurrence of people playing meta decks but with some suboptimal card choices for the sake of interest or fun. That's all well and good, but the cards are suboptimal for a reason, and you will be handing your opponents some percentage points as a result.

    On the whole though, ~5% is not a massive difference. It's still mostly good players playing good decks.

    What about the EV though? Using the Goatbots EV calculator, about 7% is the key number when comparing Comp and Friendly. If your Comp winrate is 58%, and your Friendly winrate is 65%, that's basically the equilibrium point. +3.46 for Comp, and +3.42 for Friendly. If your Comp winrate is 59% and Friendly is 66%, you're better off playing Comp, as it becomes +4.09 vs +3.69, and the gap continues to widen as your winrate increases. On the flipside, if your Comp winrate is only 57% and you get 64% in Friendly, the EV is +2.83 vs +3.15 in favor of Friendly, and the gap continues to widen as your winrate goes down. 7% is a fairly big difference though, and given my experience that would seem hard to sustain. So if you can consistently achieve 59% win in Comp, that's the better EV play.


    Wonderful post, man. This is exactly the sort of reply I was looking for. I can certainly accept 6% as an accurate approximation of expected winrate differential for the typical player. Thanks also for bringing up the EV angle; that’s something I hadn’t closely considered.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 2

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    I see little reason to be pessimistic about the future of this format (which should inform how we feel about the present state of Modern, of course).

    WotC very obviously realizes the need to print powerful answer cards in new sets. KTK and id listed most of the recent ones a few pages back: Trophy, Sphere, etc. To me, this development is extremely encouraging, and I don’t think it’s quite recieved its due among the Modern community as a clear sign that answers (and therefore interaction) are going to be designed to thrive in eternal formats.

    Would I like Modern to be more interactive than it is now? Yes, without question, and it seems that the majority shares this view. Still, the demise of interactive decks has been greatly exaggerated. We’re still doing fine in the meta—not amazing, but fine—and moving forward we can expect 1) new answers will continuously be printed with Modern (or Legacy) in mind, 2) any realistic unbans will surely help “fair”/interactive decks more than linear ones, and 3) any possible bans (which will likely only be used as a last resort) are almost certainly going to be aimed at something hyper-linear that shrugs off interaction, like Dredge.

    Finally—and this is merely anecdotal—my two most recent (Friendly) leagues with Golgari went 4-1 and 5-0, and I did it while commentating live, which, let me tell ya, definitely makes playing optimally a lot harder, especially if you’re as new to it as I am! My advice is this: find a reasonably powerful deck that you love on every level and stick with it through thick and thin. Knowing your own deck is the key to success in this format, and the broader the metagame gets, the truer that will become IMO.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)
    Quote from Spsiegel1987 »
    Reid Duke and Jabberwocki have elected not to play any Assassin Trophies in their decks. It's too tempo negative.


    From memory, Reid was on a 2/2/2 Trophy/Decay/Pulse split when he released his Golgari video. The Jund video he released yesterday was recorded pre-GRN, thus the lack of Trophy.


    As someone who basically plays Golgari Midrange in Modern to the exclusion of all else, I’d like to jump into the the “BGx is bad” discussion that’s been laced intermittently throughout the last several pages of this thread.

    Lack of card selection is the great Achilles heel of the archetype; that is no secret. Cards like Grim Flayer and Traverse the Ulvenwald are too conditional, and too easily rendered toothless by both soft and hard forms of hate, relative to their mediocre ceiling. I think we just have to accept that card selection is not a tool that’s reasonably available to us—so how do we compete in Modern?

    Well, first off we have to make sure we aren’t losing to our own deck. For now, this means playing only 2 colors IMHO. Fetch+Shock damage, Blood Moon, natural colorscrew...all of these risk factors are heavily mitigated with a 2c landbase, which also just so happens to comfortably leverage 2-4 Fields of Ruin and ~6 basic lands, giving the deck a huge amount of intrinsic value when competing on that axis.

    Restricting ourselves to just the two core colors also means that the specific spells in our 75 are a lot more flexible. Golgari can easily support 4 Nihil Spellbombs, 3 Scavenging Oozes, and 1x each of Kalitas, Grafdigger’s Cage, and Surgical Extraction, which is what my current build runs. If the meta is extremely grindy it can support 4x each of Bob and Tracker. If Burn is king it’s not unreasonable to register 4x Brutality and 2x Finks is your 75.

    I could go on, but the salient point is that our lack of card selection can only really be mitigated by playing a high density of whatever cards are most needed to survive against Modern’s linear insanity, and a two-color shell provides the most stable and painless base upon which to build a 75 that’s capable of interacting while keeping pace with the meta.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on Taking Turns
    Hey all! Checking back in with this thread and it’s going to be a long post ahead—so, fair warning, lol.

    Firstly, I must admit that I haven’t been tweaking and refining my Turns list at all; since SCG ‘Cuse, I’ve been all-in on Golgari. That said, I was very confident in my Turns list just a month or two ago, but nowadays, when I pick it back up for a change of pace, I’m having significantly worse results than I used to. It seems like the meta has become a lot more hostile, with Infect a significant presence again and decks like Tron and UWC having taken a minor downturn, to name just two factors. While Dredge is not a bad matchup in and of itself, its influence on the meta does not seem to have worked to our benefit. It’s been discouraging to say the least, particularly in contrast to my results on Golgari, which have been consistently stellar.

    I was thinking about trying out some of the maindeck Thing builds—perhaps with Mission Briefing—that I saw a few pages back, but the most recent posts ITT have me wondering whether splashing a color has become obligatory. I sure hope not, but at the same time I don’t wish to deny reality. Any thoughts?

    On a related note, I have no intentions of selling out of this deck or anything, but I maayyyy have been a little overzealous in aggressively beginning to foil it out. Grin I simply don’t get to play paper often enough to justify having two decks filled with shiny cards, and with UMA about to bring us those BGx borderless reprints...well, I think the time has come to part with my foil copies of Turns cards. I mention this here just because I wouldn’t mind giving anyone here who’s interested in foiling their deck a decent hookup. My list can be found here: https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/established-modern/combo/768745-taking-turns?page=109#c2186 . Just about everything there is foiled, with a few exceptions (Time Warps, Gigadrowses, Exhaustions, Chalices). PM me if you’re interested! I’ll hold off for a week on listing them elsewhere to give people ITT a chance to get at me.

    Finally, I’d like to get some more Turns content up on the YouTube channel and at this point I wouldn’t mind taking someone else’s list for a spin, or at least using it as a starting point. Anyone been crushing it lately with a monoblue list? Can’t justify buying into a splash color at the moment.

    Apologies for the wall of text! Hope you’re all doing well.
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Established
  • 1

    posted a message on The Rock
    Yeah, great results for our deck lately. We seem to be steadily cementing a strong place in the meta post-Trophy.

    Very interesting 2nd place list from the SCG Modern Challenge as well:

    http://www.starcitygames.com/decks/125203
    Posted in: Midrange
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