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  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from Joban8 »
    Quote from Colt47 »
    Quote from Joban8 »
    I agree that the bubble for PW-centric cards will likely burst, but there's still a good 1-2 months left for those values to inflate. Strix can be re-printed (for the 7th time) in MH, so I'd definitely suggest ditching your copies while folks are still willing to pay $10 a pop. However, Zen fetches will not be in MH or any set within the foreseeable future, so selling now would be extremely premature IMO. Tarn may have hit/come close to it's all time high, but the others have just started making their way up to new highs. Even in the most conservative scenario where one thinks MH might introduce a land cycle that somehow makes fetches less desirable, I wouldn't begin to think about offloading them until the week or so before spoilers are set to debut.


    It's best to set a threshold for the price point to sell, rather than waiting for the peak to come. The only way to know the peak is hit is to see the price start to fall, and at that point it is too late. Someone might lose out on a few extra dollars short term, but the long term is what is important.


    ....
    That's just being conservative; there's a good chance that MH will only push demand further post-release and we could see prices climb well throughout the Summer into Fall.


    You shut your dirty mouth!

    But no, you're probably spot-on.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Do you enjoy modern right now?
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Quote from Ym1r »
    Let's not keep a narrative of a silent group that just dislikes the format but doesn't talk about it, doesn't want to talk about it, but is oppressed by the people who actually like the format. It doesn't make sense. I think the total N we have from both polls is enough to give a clear picture of the active playerbase.


    What? There's maybe 5 people who are actively critical of Modern and there are 30 voters who do not enjoy Modern. It is indicative that there IS a silent group of people who are not enjoying Modern but are not actively posting about it.

    And taking the results from the reddit poll. As of the time of this post there's almost 1000 voters. It's quite clear that a significant amount of players do not enjoy Modern, around 25% on both reddit and MTGS.

    In this thread, there are 27 unique posters who have actually posted, and 106 total voters. Assuming people aren't up to anything shady with accounts, that means there are 79 people who voted but did not post.

    Of those 27 who voted, here's the breakdown as a percent of posters (n=27) and total posts (n=55):

    1s: 6 (22% of posters, 18% of total posts)
    2s: 7 (26% of posters, 25% of total posts)
    3s: 0 (0% of posters, 0% of total posts)
    4s: 7 (26% of posters, 38% of total posts)
    5s: 1 (4% of posters, 7% of total posts)
    Unknowns: 6 (22% of posters, 11% of total posts)

    Based on this thread, the most common group of posters are actually the 4s and the 2s, with the most vocal of those groups being the 4s. This makes sense to me because these are the groups that are still campaigning for changes. 1s love the format and don't want to defend or address issues (they don't see any), 3s are ambivalent or indifferent and don't post, and 5s might be so checked out of a format they just hate. If this breakdown was also true in the reddit thread (hard to know), it supports a theory of a vocal minority of players who dislike Modern. The 4s and 5s represent 45% of the total posts in this thread, despite comprising only 30% of total posters and 29% of the total vote. This also makes sense to me, as we often see this effect in polls.

    EDIT: deleted an incorrect line.


    For the sake of data I'll chime in and say I voted for #4. Like other posters have said in regards to Legacy, I wish more decisions mattered in Modern. Micro-decisions and back-and-forth gameplay is what originally drew me to modern at the format's beginning. I will say that recently I've given up on remand and cryptic command and have picked up a glass cannon, which has actually let me have a little more enjoyment of my games. At least I get to be the one either winning or losing to my deck, rather than drawing the wrong half of my deck or not being quick enough.

    Also, I agree with the poster who said that people who don't care/don't like Modern aren't posting. When I'm super into Diablo I may post on forums or visit them, when I'm bored with it, I don't. If someone isn't liking Modern atm I don't see them trawling the forums and visiting polls; they're reading about other formats/things. Just my two cents.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Quote from Joban8 »
    If it weren't for the three Modern GPs in March and Modern Horizons on the horizon (ba-dum tss), this sort of announcement, lacking any information regarding the overall format, would be disappointing. However, there's honestly no point in announcing bans/unbans or relaying thoughts on the current meta when 250 new-to-modern cards are about to be dumped into the card-pool; the sheer number of cards introduces a metric *****-load of new variables that will almost surely re-shape the metagame into something that will look much different than it does today. Sure, current T1 archetypes likely won't fall off the face of the Earth or anything, but unless all of those 250 cards end up being absolute garbage (highly unlikely), there will be an exciting period of uncertainty in Modern while players brew/experiment with their new toys.

    Think back over the last 3-5 years of Modern and recall all the instances when the addition/removal of a single card/new-found strategy impacted the format (e.g. Death's Shadow, Twin/Pod ban, Dredge-enablers, Hollow One, Arclight, Push, etc); now extrapolate that to include 250 cards coming directly from Legacy's card pool or designed specifically with Modern's power level in mind. Even if 200 of those cards end up being draft fodder and/or "unplayable", we're still looking at a major meta shakeup post-horizons.



    Yes, it's super exciting! Although I'd be lying if I didn't also say that I feel a little trepidation at having my in-the-mail deck that I just bought get invalidated within the next 4-6 months. Granted, it was silly to buy in to a new deck with everything coming, but I didn't have much of a choice, the money was catching my pants on fire....
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on "What Deck Should I Play" thread
    I ended up pulling the trigger on Goryo's. I played tons of games on modo throughout the weekend and it just felt way better to be proactive vs sitting back and hoping I draw the right answers. Should get my cards this week and I'll run it at FNM this Friday!
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on "What Deck Should I Play" thread
    I could use some input/insight as well. I've been playing a lot of T2/T3 nonsense, such as UR Through the Breach, UR kiki, Blue Moon,and now I'm on Grixis Kiki. I've been looking at two separate decks that I can pick up and are within ~$40 of each other, so that's not a huge issue. One is the sultai reclamation deck, and the other is Tom Medvec's Goryo's As Foretold Kiki deck.

    Sultai Pros:
    My favorite color wedge.
    The spell toolbox gameplay is a lot of fun, and Blue Sun's Zenith-ing someone for 45 rarely gets old.
    Buying into this deck also gets me a few Misty fetches and some landbase cards that should hold value or at least be worthwhile moving into the future.

    Cons:
    Playing in paper will require lots of time management (slow deck, lots of shuffling, which I hate)
    Deck is very skill-intensive (and I scrub at FNM quite a bit, sometimes going 3-1, usually 2-2)
    The shell isn't 100% yet, and flooding out or durdling around unitl T7 or 8 and dying has happened quite a few times online.

    Goryo's Pros:
    Super fun deck, right up my alley with kiki, plus my other all-time favorite legendary, Grizzy.
    Less known deck, so can earn a few percentage points from people not prepared.
    Can win T2 some amount of the time(t1 faithless looting, kiki+exarch into bin, t2 electrodominance+ LE ) so it's at least quicker than the build I'm running now.
    Can easily shift to UR living end (Nassif's list) to try other builds.

    Cons:
    It's a graveyard deck. Maindeck surgical is becoming quite common with phoenix, of which there is plenty at my LGS.
    It's also a complex deck with many lines, and again, not a high-tier player.
    Very few resources on this deck, even from Medvec, there are only a handful of videos and most are 12+ months out of date (not utilizing the Electrodominance).
    Only Medve'cs 11th place finish, no other results that I've seen.

    General thoughts:
    With horizons on the horizon (hyuck), the metagame could drastically change in the coming months, and either deck could be a bad investment OR could be a "Glad I bought that when I did" moment. (especially in regards to land cards)
    I will be playing this pretty much solely at FNM, so it obviously doesn't need to be top tier, but I will take it to Open's and GP's when they're in town.
    The biggest factor here is that I have money burning a hole in my pocket. I've been set for 3 weeks or so on buying sultai, so the "buy a new deck" is really hard to turn off now. Even if waiting until horizons is a better option, I dunno if I wanna do that. I can't really even pinpoint why I started getting turned off sultai and onto Goryo's, probably too many durdle-until-I-die games on modo.

    Anyways, I know that these kind of situations are impossible to predict or to tell people what the actual "best" option is, but I'm just hoping for some input and to bounce ideas around. My wife couldn't really care less and my IRL friends quit magic years ago, so forums and discord are all I have as an outlet for my thoughts.

    As it stands now, I'm planning on jamming both lists on modo all weekend and make a decision by Sunday *crossing fingers prices dont' keep skyrocketing.....*

    *edit* For reference, Sultai would get me 2x Misty's, 1x verdant, and 3-4 shocks. Goryo's would get me 3x blackcleave cliffs.

    Thanks peeps.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on BUG Wilderness Teachings Turns
    Quote from user-24957269 »
    Could somebody pleas post a new link to the discord server?

    Looking forward to building and playing this deck!


    I'm newer to Discord, so I'm not entirely sure this will work, but try this:

    Https://discord.gg/4dYNxKF
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 21/01/2019)
    I am not a data/statistician junkie nor a math whiz, so I have no way of verifying if this calculation is correct, but found this posted on Reddit:

    https://i.redd.it/64afoskm14i21.png

    It looks like the new mulligan rule will improve the odds, increasing the chance of seeing 3 specific cards, down to a mull 4, from 9.6% odds to 17.5%.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 21/01/2019)
    Quote from Ym1r »
    Quote from M1sgu1ded1 »
    Quote from Kathal »
    A Modern product, something similar as Battlebond as far as I have understood it.

    Greetings,
    Kathal


    Not to mention the fact that they said (iirc) that this was something never tried before, right? I definitely took their statements as a product, not just an event.
    Well, the new Mulligan rule has never been tried before, and it is something that dates back about 2 years since it was first mentioned in the design team as we are given to understand. So it combines the modern announcement with something new.


    Yea, definitely true. Could be. I guess we wait and see and hope that it's something cool. In regards to the mulligans though, I personally like the idea and I'm excited to see what changes.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on BUG Wilderness Teachings Turns
    Yes, payday! I'm renewing my manatraders account tonight and I'll finally be able to play this pile of glorious cards!

    @Kathal,

    Are you still running the same list? Any new innovations or tweaks? I'm planning on running the stock build for awhile but wanna keep other options in mind.

    Thanks!
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 21/01/2019)
    Quote from Kathal »
    A Modern product, something similar as Battlebond as far as I have understood it.

    Greetings,
    Kathal


    Not to mention the fact that they said (iirc) that this was something never tried before, right? I definitely took their statements as a product, not just an event.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 21/01/2019)
    Quote from Slowgod »
    Can I get by without Surgical Extraction in like every sideboard of every deck I want to make? I'm looking at UW control, Blue Moon or Tron for MTGO and about half of the decks cost is the 2-3 copies of surgical. I remember when all the pros didn't even like this card... I quit for over a year and kind of like how things are looking right now, but this auto including surgicals in every deck and how expensive it is now is the one thing that really sticks out to me.


    It obviously doesn't work the same, but I ran ravenous trap in paper for awhile until I picked up surgicals. Those or extirpate may help you out, otherwise, yea, surgical is pretty good right now.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 21/01/2019)
    Quote from ElectricEye »
    So when is WOTC announcing Arena Modern? I mean presumably it has to be before Fall Rotation. I would guess it be post War of the Sparks.


    As far as I know, there is no intention of making Arena modern.


    I've seen multiple claims from WotC that there will be a Standard + format, which is "Arena Modern" as Autumn is referencing.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • posted a message on BUG Wilderness Teachings Turns
    Quote from Walked »
    Quote from M1sgu1ded1 »
    I've been watching every VOD and reading everything that anyone has written about this deck so far, please keep the posts coming everyone! Ever since twin got banned, this is the first deck where I feel like I'm falling in love and want to play it (helps that sultai is my favorite color wedge). I'm planning on picking it up in 2 weeks when I get my work bonus.

    Any new innovations happening? Any flex slots/fun-ofs that are finding success in your personal lists? I'm going to renew my manatraders account this weekend to test before I buy the paper cards, but for now I'm living vicariously through all of you.

    I need content, feed me!


    Also curious about this deck. Mind sharing the content you're finding? I'm curious to watch a bit before I take the plunge on this deck.


    Playlist from (afaik) the creator of the deck. I could be off base but FTZZ is the first person who I saw piloting/tweaking the list.

    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUMfwqGUOscj2XHgDcI4IOe6ILEr350u3

    Saffron Olive league:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUQziZlJXAM

    Haven't watched this video yet:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rShSKDC3G8

    Also the discord, I don't have it off hand but I believe FTZZ posted it on reddit (and possibly in this thread somewhere?)

    *Edit* Found the reddit thread and discord link.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernMagic/comments/as11o1/ftzz_sultai_wilderness_resources/

    Discord:
    https://discord.gg/tp7RFh
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on BUG Wilderness Teachings Turns
    I've been watching every VOD and reading everything that anyone has written about this deck so far, please keep the posts coming everyone! Ever since twin got banned, this is the first deck where I feel like I'm falling in love and want to play it (helps that sultai is my favorite color wedge). I'm planning on picking it up in 2 weeks when I get my work bonus.

    Any new innovations happening? Any flex slots/fun-ofs that are finding success in your personal lists? I'm going to renew my manatraders account this weekend to test before I buy the paper cards, but for now I'm living vicariously through all of you.

    I need content, feed me!
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 21/01/2019)
    Bear in mind while you keep making disparaging remarks up there on your high horse that those users are the ones who still care enough about the Modern format to make their opinions known. There are many others like me who simply don't care to post anymore.

    Modern hasn't been enjoyable to me since the latter part of 2018, so I moved on. That's all. I have the luxury of doing that, others might not, or have a stronger attachment to Modern.

    I still have my Modern decks, good for jamming casual games within my playgroup. Competition? No thanks. Consuming Modern content? Rarely if any.

    Great that there are many out there who enjoy Modern for what it is. Keep doing what you guys are doing.


    I can definitely agree with this sentiment. The-deck-that-shall-not-be-named is the only deck I've ever played where I felt like that was MY deck and I never wanted to play anything else. Since I've returned to magic in late 2017, I've moved between a few decks and never really felt like I truly loved any deck in the meta. My IRL friends haven't played much magic in years and were never competitive, so to scratch my itch I just read through these forums all day. While I don't hate Modern top to bottom, I do dislike the hyper-aggro/ships-passing nature that we find so often. That, coupled with not having a deck that I truly love top-to-bottom and want to specialize with, causes me to sometimes just throw my hands up and wonder why I'm wasting my time. At this point I'm too deep to sell off my cards/switch to standard, so I do feel a little stuck. Which sucks when I'm enjoying modern as a 7/10 when it used to be an 11/10 for me when modern first became a format.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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