MTG Salvation

Assume your play.
1a forest, vineyard [19/20]
1b swamp, vineyard adds 2 [19/18]
2a plains, vineyard adds 2, cast unlife for WGG [16/18]
2b swamp, vineyard adds 2, tap 2 swamps for liliana [16/14], force discard (repay and nether spirit)
3a vineyard [14/14]
3b spirit returns, vineyard adds 2, tap swamp for decay on unlife [16/11]
4a vineyard [14/11]
4b vineyard, attack [12/9]
5a vineyard [10/9]
4b vineyard, attack [8/7]
5a vineyard [6/7]
4b vineyard, attack [4/5]
5a vineyard [2/3]
5a vineyard, attack [0/1]

Assume you're on the play. At the start of the game, things are awkward. If you cast storm world before I cast anything, I will sit back and watch you take damage faster than me. If you then cast confinement, I'll decay it and keep waiting. So you have to wait for me to spend a card before you can even start:
1 and 2: land, go
3a land, go
3b land, nether spirit [20/17]
4a land, Storm World [19/17]
4b Storm world deals 2 [19/15], attack [17/15]
5a Storm world deals 2 [15/15]
4b Storm world deals 2 [15/13], attack [13/13]
5a Storm world deals 2 [11/13]
4b Storm world deals 2 [11/11], attack [9/11]
5a Storm world deals 2 [7/11]
4b Storm world deals 2 [7/9], attack [5/9]
5a Storm world deals 2 [3/9]
4b Storm world deals 2 [3/7], attack [1/7]
5a Storm world deals 2 [0/7]

At any point in that sequence, you could cast confinement and I will decay it, costing you 3 life and me 2 life, and increasing the rate at which storm world kills us both. This won't change the race.

You could also start casting squee to block, but every time you do that you pay 3 life to prevent 2 damage. Not a very good deal.

Casting recoil on an attacking spirit costs you 3 life, but prevents 2 damage that turn and 2 damage the next turn, so can be worth it. Recurring Recoil with remembrance and doing the same costs 1 life right away to prevent 1 damage in several turns, so is not a wise move and doesn't buy you any time.

Assume your play
1-2 land, go
3a land, go
3b land, lilliana [20/17], force both to discard. I discard Spirit. You toss remembrance
4a land, reactor [16/17]
4b spirit returns
5a 1 counter on reactor
5b attack, you recoil the spirit (i discard spirit) [13/17]
6a 2 counters on reactor,
6b spirit returns
7a 3 counters
7b attack [11/17]
I'm going to win this race

Your Play
1a land
1b land
2a land, shortfang [18/20]
2b land, decay shortfang [18/18]
3a land
3b land, spirit [18/15]
4a land
4b attack with spirit, you cast decay to prevent damage [16/15]
5a land
5b spirit returns
6a land, dread [10/15]
6b Liliana [10/12] force you to sac dread, dread shuffles, attack [8/15]
7a Recast dread [2/15] Now if you ever attack, I swing back for the kill. Lilly builds her loyalty back up and makes you sac dread again so I can swing.

Ok, what if you never cast shortfang to save some life?
Your Play
1a land
1b land
2a land, go
2b land, go
3a land
3b land, spirit [20/17]
4a land
4b attack with spirit, you cast decay to prevent damage [18/17]
5a land
5b spirit returns
6a land, dread [12/17]
6b liliana [12/14] force you to sac dread, dread shuffles, attack [10/14]
7a Dread [4/14]
7b +1 Lilliana (I discard abrupt decay, you discard shortfang). Cant attack
8a Dread must attack Lilliana to stop her from -2ing, Lilly dies.
8b Attack with spirit [2/14], spirit dies
9a Attack with dread [2/8]
9b spirit returns
10a if you attack with dread, I kill you on the counterattack. We draw.

Ok, how about if you save the decay for Lilly at the end?
Your Play
1a land
1b land
2a land, go
2b land, go
3a land
3b land, spirit [20/17]
4a land
4b attack with spirit, [18/17]
5a land
5b attack [16/17]
6a land, dread [10/17]
6b liliana [10/14] force you to sac dread, dread shuffles, attack [8/14]
7a Dread [2/14] (if you cast decay, you'll go down to 6, and then you cant cast dread, so I'll win by decaying shortfang if you decide to cast that.
7b +1 Lilliana (Both discarding decay). Cant attack
8a Dread must attack Lilliana to stop her from -2ing, Lilly dies.
8b Attack with spirit [0/14], I win

You'll take the draw up above.

So, if I'm on the play...
1a land
1b land
2a land, go
2b land, go
3a land, spirit [20/17]
3b land
4a attack with spirit, you cast decay to prevent damage [18/17]
4b land
5a spirit returns
5b land
6a attack [16/17]
6b land, dread [10/17]
7a liliana [10/14] force you to sac dread, dread shuffles, attack [8/14]
7b Dread [2/14]
8a +1 Lilliana (I discard abrupt decay, you discard shortfang). Cant attack
8b Dread must attack Lilliana to stop her from -2ing, Lilly dies.
9a Attack with spirit [0/14] win.

Lord, that was complicated. I think it is 4-1 for me, but please correct my reasoning

My Play
1a Forest
1b Land, Sol Ring [20/19]
2a Swamp, Decay Sol Ring [18/19]
2b Land
3a Swamp, Lilly [15/19], Each player discards (you lose something, I toss spirit)
3b Land
4a Spirit regrows, Use lilly to make you discard your last card
I win.

Lets see how it goes if you hold sol ring to squeeze mana out of it before I get priority

1a Forest
1b Land
2a Swamp
2b Land
3a Swamp, Lilly [17/20], Each player discards (you lose batterskull, I toss spirit)
3b Land, sol ring, smokestack [17/15]
4a Spirit regrows, land, decay sol ring [15/15]
From here I'm going to win - if you leave stax on 1 I can keep up with it, if you go to 2 or more it will die eventually and I'll get to recur spirit

Your Play
1a land, sol ring [19/20]
1b forest
2a land, stax [15/20]
2b swamp, decay sol ring [15/18]
3a if you put stax to 1 you force a draw, if you don't ...
3b swamp, Lilly [15/15], Both discard (you lose batterskull I lose spirit)
I win. So you force the draw on turn 3a.

Your Play
0 Two Leylines
1a Cradle, Jade mage, attack with leylines [20/16]
1b Grove
2a make a sap, attack with leylines and jade mage [20/10]
2b Reaches, kavu [21/10]
3a attack with all [21/2]
3b Tap grove for G, storage counter, kavu grows to 3/3
4a attack with all, one gets blocked but I die.

My Play
0 Two Leylines
1a Grove
1b Cradle, Jade mage, attack with leylines [20/16]
2a reaches, Kavu [21/16]
you have two options here, you can start attacking all out or you can play arena. lets consider attacking first.

2b make a sap, attack with leylines and jade mage [21/10]
3a pass
3b attack with all, I tap grove for R, making kavu 3/3 [22/10]. I tap reaches and cast fire targeting jade mage. Then I block Leyline of Vitality with kavu. Mage, Sap, and Leyline of Lifeforce hit me [22/4], Leyline of Vitality dies, and jade mage dies because it has 2 damage and is no longer getting +0/+1.
4a Use grove to regrow fire, kavu becomes 4/4 [23/4]
4b attack with sap and leyline of lifeforce, block leyline with kavu [23/2], leyline dies
5a punishing fire on saproling, start attacking with kavu. I'm pretty clearly going to win from here, even if you now use arena to restrict me to killing you with punishing fire and serene remembrance.

so, option two, you cast the arena to tie up the kavu

2b cast arena, tapping everything down
3a storage counter (1)
3b saproling
4a storage counter (2)
4b attack with sap [21/14], replace sap
5a storage counter (3)
5b attack with sap [21/12], replace sap
6a storage counter (4)
6b attack with sap [21/10], replace sap
5a tap reaches and remove 4 counters for RRRR, cast punishing fire on jade mage, tap reaches for R, regrow punishing fire, cast second punishing fire on jade mage, killing it.
5b attack with sap [21/8]
6a I can now slowly win by looping punishing fire with serene remembrance.

Your play
1a guide, guide, plans, suspend arc blade (3)
1b grove
2a suspend (2)
2b reaches, storage counter (1)
3a suspend (1)
3b storage counter (2)
4a suspend (0), arc blade, resuspend (3) [20/18]
4b tap grove for 1, reaches for RG. Cast fire and remembrance [18/18]
5a suspend(2)
5b draw remembrance, storage counter (1)
6a suspend (1)
6b draw fire, storage counter (2)
7a suspend(0), resuspend (3) [18/16]
7b tap grove for 1, reaches for RG. Cast fire and remembrance [16/16]

this loops for a long time, until I sneak ahead because the last time I don't need remembrance:

28b tap grove for 1, reaches for RG. Cast fire and remembrance [2/2]
29a suspend (2)
29b draw remembrance, storage counter (1)
30a suspend (1)
30b draw fire, tap grove for 1, tap reaches and remove 1 counter for R, cast fire [0/2]

If I cast kavu, you'll be able to loop llightning axe to get mentor back. But I can win without kavu...

Your play:
1a Grove, mentor [20/21]
1b Grove
2a Grove, discard ulamog to make elf, shuffle [20/22]
2b Reaches, punish mentor [21/22]
3a Draw Ulamog, attack [21/21], lightning your own elf, discarding ulamog to shuffle ulamog and mentor [21/22]
3b Tap grove to regrow punishing fire [22/22]
4a draw ulamog
4b nothing
5a draw mentor, cast mentor, then I punish mentor at EOT [22/23]
now you're stuck with mentor and lightning both in your yard, and I can loop punishing fire with the storage land to kill you very slowly.