Quote from ThyLordQ »Quote from NeedAMedic »
Meh, it also feels like they do more and more of these each year. This year being behind doesn't mean much since these typically drop in batches. I'm sure once actual details of this arrive it'll be easier to evaluate.
That early access is worth quite a bit. If I can get the product to resell before others, it sells for more. Reselling SLs is already pretty profitable overall,and pretty easy, especially in the days immediately following the first deliveries.
That's assuming you get the product first and not just "Get to order the product first, with everything shipping at once." I also wasn't assuming purchasing for turning purposes, but I suppose that's on me.
They certainly create more product every year, as I've listed in another thread, but Secret Lairs have only been around since 2019. 2020 is the best data we can work off of, and we're already a third of the way through the year. Theros Stargazing and Secret Lair Drop: Smitten were comparable sets of five, as are Secret Lair: International Women's Day and Secret Lair: Black is Magic (being more charity based drops). But by this point last year, we'd also had the Year of the Rat, and Thalia. If Strixhaven only gets one Secret Lair, it'll be comparable to the Godzilla Lands Secret Lair.
You also made me curious again, so let’s toss in some extra math. I bought one Secret Lair in 2020. Assuming my receipt is correct, it cost 5 dollars to ship to me. I’m in the Midwest, so it probably costs more to ship to the East Coast, but I can only work with the information I have.
Assuming that every box costs 5 dollars to ship, with a 10% discount, I would need to buy 18 Secret Lairs to exceed the cost of the Subscription. Specifically going off of my list: Year of the Rat through non-foil Happy Yargle Day!, purchasing both foil and non-foil, gets me to $150 in discounts and free shipping.
From foil "Happy Yargle Day!" onwards, the savings add up to $110.
EDIT: Missed 3 places where shipping could have been added, upping the savings at the end from $95 to $110.
I for one appreciate ThyLordQ's attempts to quantify this in some realm as an estimate. I guess it does depend on the definition of "Early Access" and if that means early reservation or early shipped, but I'm not sure if we should approach this subscription series from the scalper angle (as it def would most likely be profitable in long term, even if short sale isn't), but from the average consumer who is buying it to get the cards and feel like the subscription savings make the subscription worth it.
But again, all these numbers will change, but with what data we got, not a bad spot to start conversations with.