Magic Market Index for Sep 14th, 2018
 
Magic Market Index for Sep 6th, 2018
 
Magic Market Index: Hit Over Miss
  • posted a message on Burn
    If you’re running a 3 cmc spell to stop creatures, I feel like bridge is stronger. It forces them to have an answer to it and can lock them out of multiple turns while you draw your inevitable burn spells to finish them off. Anger is just a one turn answer.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    It’s kind of an addition to the other lesson learned about Searing Blaze, but the rules about it having two targets also means you can hold priority and cast multiple Blazes on the same target creature with 3 or less health to hit your opponent for more damage. Even though the first one will resolve and kill it, the second one will still hit the opponent’s face.

    Also, using Skullcrack to force damage through to protection from red creatures after they’ve blocked is another one that can be handy at times. Can come up in mirror matches with Kor Firewalker or against Affinity with Etched Champion.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    Quote from gamble629 »
    Thanks Decepticon, Reslin, Conquistador!
    Appreciate the insight, I think I'm going to skip Bridge for now and start with a list like this: https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/1191298#paper

    Cheers


    That looks like a solid core to start with. If your budget is able to stretch a little more, I’d recommend picking up the fourth Inspiring Vantage, a third Searing Blood, two Deflecting Palms, two Kor Firewalkers, one (or two) Shard Volley and a playset of Smash to Smithereens to give yourself a little bit of extra flexibility to adjust to the meta. Those additions are pretty inexpensive overall for how many more options they’ll provide. You should definitely just jam a few games with your current 75 first though just to make sure you enjoy the play style.

    Just to make your initial 75 cheaper and equally effective, you could even just replace the third Lavamancer with a third Searing Blood. I think you’d really want to be running 12 fetches if you’re going to play 3 Lavamancers.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    It’s been touched on a bit at times throughout the thread, but I have been really, really liking Exquisite Firecraft in the sideboard.

    I originally dismissed it purely as an anti-control card, which I don’t think we really need (I am firmly of the opinion that if you’re having a hard time vs control as Burn, you’re probably just not being patient enough; counter spells are relatively easy to play around by pulsing damage and control decks in Modern still need to tap out at some point to deploy threats). But realizing its potential as just another Burn spell that deals 4 damage has really changed my opinion on it. I’m finding it really makes sideboarding against combo decks a lot easier too, e.g. Titanshift where we want to take out 4 Searing Blaze but really only want to being in 2-3 Path of Exile (As an aside, It directly won me the game against a TS opponent the other day as a top deck while they were at 4 health and had their Valakut combo set up to go off the next turn). The card also serving as an anti-control tool is more of an added bonus for me now rather than the main reason I run it.

    Kor Firewalker is too narrow and I detest Deflecting Palm. Exquisite Firecraft is the best card I’ve found for that two card flex spot in my SB and I think it’s going to end up being a staple for me in an open meta going forward (I still run Firewalkers locally due to a higher percentage of Burn).
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    Black is getting another Burn relevant card in M19 it looks like:
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    Gerry Thompson highlighted this in an article of SCG recently. This is what he said about it:
    “I'm a big fan of decks like these, and it wouldn't shock me if they become the future to some degree. Burn is easily defeated by hate cards, and Death's Shadow suffers to some degree by not being as proactive as it should be. A mashup featuring Abbot of Keral Keep could be exactly what the doctor ordered.

    Dark Confidant in a Burn shell is excellent because you're already drawing fire with your Goblin Guides, so it's more likely to stick around. The Death's Shadows aren't quite as explosive in this deck, especially considering the Blackcleave Cliffs, but as a Turn 3 play, it seems just fine. Having some additional heavy hitters for Claim is necessary anyway. I've been waiting for Claim to break out, and it's a perfect fit here. Previous versions have rocked Vexing Devils alongside it, which is a fine route to take, but maybe not a perfect one.

    As lifegain and cheap removal hold Burn down, a different approach is necessary, and so far, I really like this one. Given the overall strategy has deviated somewhat, playing Lava Spike doesn't excite me, and I'd also like to try Bomat Couriers, but this deck has promise.”
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    This is what I mean:
    Bogles is the only real threatening deck in the meta with enchantments. UW Control and Merfolk are really the only other ones that have any other enchantments of note and neither are very popular in the meta. Blood Moon is ignorable in my opinion, especially since the window to respond to it is so narrow that DRev is basically just a dead card if you don’t have it in hand and the Stomping Ground already in play/fetchable.

    So, I feel like we need to decide if we care about trying to improve the Bogles matchup, which means running Ensnaring Bridge, Deflecting Palm and the full playset of Destructive Revelry in the sideboard. It also arguably means that we should probably just go ahead and also play another Stomping Ground and Atarka’s Command over Skullcrack for another spell that can punch through Leyline of Sanctity and increase our creature damage to try to race them faster.

    On the other hand, if we just concede Bogles as an unwinnable matchup, we should just run Boros for Smash to Smithereens for the extra damage against artifacts in matchups that are more winnable.

    Going half in with only DRev in the sideboard just to still have a nigh unwinnable matchup even if we draw it against Bogles while giving up free points of damage in other matchups that could use it seems silly.

    Basically it boils down to whether trying to improve a 20-30% matchup to 30-40% is better than trying to swing 50% matchups to 55%. That may very well be the case with Bogles being overrepresented right now. The argument against AComm would be that adding it also demonstrably lowers our win rate in other matchups where it matters, which then could make the middle ground option of just running green for only DRev the best because it improves the Bogles matchup enough without hurting the rest. Maybe that’s actually where we’re at. I’m just raising the question.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    Some matchups are bad and it's not worth making an 80:20 unfavorable matchup into 75:25.


    Yeah, that’s probably a good point. I guess my frustration stems from running across a much higher percentage of these unfavorable to terrible matchups now. Pre-unbanning, it felt like 90-95% of the games were against favoured or at least even matchups, with really only the rare Ad Nauseum appearance showing up to ruin a run. Hollow One and Bogles feel way more overrepresented online now and it feels like you end up playing at least one bad matchup every league now no matter what (and even then Jund and Humans are about 50/50 so losing runs just happen more often). This really feels like a strictly worse meta for Burn and I’m not sure how that changes without any major shakeups. Damping Sphere just seems like it will make things worse by further pushing out more favorable matchups in Tron and Storm (as well as also being annoying against us).

    I think I might experiment with both Ensnaring Bridge and Deflecting Palm in the side. Ensnaring Bridge especially seems solid since it can come in for Humans too. I dislike Deflecting Palm a lot, so I’m usually pretty hesitant to run it, but it does feel like it at least gives us a couple different outs to Bogles and can maybe slow down Hollow One a bit as a souped up Lightning Helix.

    It is definitely starting to feel like RWg with only Destructive Revelry using green in the side is just flat out wrong though. Bogles is really the only enchantment deck in the meta, and in that case running Atarka’s Command over Skullcrack would be better. The question is how much would going full RWG drop your win percentage against the rest of the field versus just giving up entirely on Bogles to go straight Boros.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    Way too narrow.

    Although it’s immediately a better card on paper just because half the fun of playing it would be to see the look on their face.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    There really isn’t much we can do to make the Bogles and Hollow One matchups better other than maybe adding both Ensnaring Bridge and Deflecting Palm to the sideboard, right? It looks like the Burn deck that top-8ed at GP Hartford did exactly that.

    The MTGO meta has been a lot less fun to play in than it was a couple months ago just due to the higher frequency of those two decks (and Humans and Affinity, although those matchups at least feel reasonably even and fun to play against), so I’m just sort of trying to figure out what configuration would make coming across them feel less overwhelmingly futile. Is leaning heavier into green for Atarka’s Command (better potential trades and dodges Leyline) another option?
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    This new sideboard guide is amazing! Thanks eldonquistador85!

    It does seem like Searing Blood is a notable exclusion from the potential sideboard options for decks like Affinty and Elves though if I had to make any recommendation.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    I’m pretty sure I’m approaching the humans matchup in the wrong manner. With most creature aggro decks, you can sort of save your removal for high priority targets like lords or combo pieces, but I feel like humans is a bit deceiving that way in that almost all of their creatures have a reasonable impact on the board while they’re in play, so they all feel threatening when they maybe aren’t in actuality. I’ve been losing games recently with the humans player around 2-6 life which almost definitely means I’m sending too much Burn at their board rather than face. Which creatures specifically are the high priority kill targets in that matchup?
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    The MTGO meta has gotten super fast recently. I’ve started to lose a bunch of games with the opponent under 3 health.

    Starting to test switching to 19 lands and adding a couple Shard Volleys now to see how it helps in that regard. Feels really weird that we may be in a meta where Burn isn’t faster than the average deck anymore though.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    That’s pretty rough luck. I have found that I started to have better results against black midrange decks running discard when I started prioritizing keeping seven less ideal cards rather than fishing for a “perfect” six, but four lands does make that a tough call since then that puts you at only two live cards potentially. Fetches make it sort of better since you can at least thin the deck a little bit (almost negligible though), but on the play, I think that has to be a mulligan.

    A no land six is just the worst possible outcome there I think and is just plain bad luck, since anything else is probably keepable at that point. Going to five or less just always feels like it ends up being a mistake against discard in my experience. I may have considered keeping the six card hand and prayed for topdecks, but I almost definitely would have kept the five card hand even as a no lander in that case. It’s unlikely to win still, but there’s almost no possible four card hand that’d be better at that point.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Burn
    Guerilla Tactics just seems like really narrow Hollow One (Burning Inquiry) or Kolaghan's Command tech.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
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