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  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    And don't tell me that Nancy can ever be town despite this, she's been posting up a storm on mafiascum the past week while completely ignoring this game and lying about being V/LA, her Lissa thing was weak and mindset-wise I think the pushback was null since she showed that she thought she was being towny, the only really solid reasoning for her being town was antialignment with Lissa/sheep (and I've been increasingly feeling that the pushes on sheep have been spewing him town).

    Quote from Nancy Drew 39 »
    Quote from Gemma »
    Should I share the dream where I learned that the team was shadow/sheep/Regfan?


    Vaimes, Sheep, Lissa are currently my strongest townreads.

    I’m liking Regfan better since he’s got his head in the game. I’m still trying to do that. I’m kind of frazzled now because I haven’t even packed yet. I’m sure I will make up for that once I get back from my trip.
    Quote from Nancy Drew 39 »
    Quote from sheepsaysmeep »
    i sort of dislike nancy drew's confidence on townread with me tbh

    not really enough progression doesnt seem that natural, like i remember nancy drew going like "sheep having me as town is acceptable" sort of didnt really see her bringing me up again until she goes sheep never scum?


    Yeah, I probably shouldn’t have said that. I constzntly get into trouble for doing that. What I should have said, is that your one of my strongest townreads. In no particular order, I’m liking you, Vaimes and LW for town. Lissa may possibly be town evehthough she’s being kind of nasty and I think unfair to me.
    Quote from Nancy Drew 39 »
    Quote from sheepsaysmeep »
    im still null on most people, soem of regfan's reasons for townreading me felt a bit reachy eg townreading my openin post which was like oh i wish i randed wolf

    nancy drew is gun to my head town


    What is your take on Gemma, Shadow and Rhand?
    Quote from Nancy Drew 39 »
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    (snip)


    Well,I still not completely caught up but I like sheep and LW for town. As I already said to Regfan, I usually don’t have any really strong scumreads this early. I dislike that phrase because it just sounds silly to me to say that unless you’re mod confirmed IC, or spewed town after a flip or something.

    There are some interesting interactions going on between Gemma/Rhand, You/Gemma, Gemma/Regfan but I’m not sure if that means anything. Like sheep, I am not familiar with the playerbase, so don’t know if it’s just meta or something else.

    And why is your vote on me?
    Rule Of Three /chants

    I think 450 is lightly townspewing for Rhand, it's intuitive to use a town player's reasoning as support for your case, whereas using a bud's ("look at my partner calling this townie scum") feels awkward.

    I ran through Rhand/Hunger/Vaimes looking for antialigns and didn't get any.

    Nancy/shadow/Vaimes makes a more sense to me than Nancy/shadow/Hunger on several levels.


    Gemma, eevee, Last, Wheat ~ KJ, Dels, Lissa, sheep )) ---- )) ------ % )) > ------ Hunger, Vaimes )) -------- )) ---- shadow ---- )) -------- Nancy ))
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    Game is even more solved than before maybe?

    I think this makes shadow mafia, just for the way his Nancy read has evolved, it lines up with him having TMI that she's mafia. This reminds me of my post earlier in the dayphase.

    Quote from Gemma »
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    Shadow
    Gemma
    Lissa
    Dels
    Vaimes
    Killjoy
    Sheep
    Nancy
    Rhand
    I don't think the team is ever shadow/Rhand/nancy for this readlist. shadow/Nancy is most likely, if he's going for the "avoid lynching scummy buddy " which also sort of lines up with his comments EoD1 about shooting nancy. His second bud would most likely be up in Lissa/Dels/Vaimes.
    I wouldn't say literally never, but I think it's a good look for Rhand given that shadow doesn't like to bus.

    KJ/Dels/Lissa/sheep town, Vaimes dropoff city, Hunger question mark city, Nancy/shadow can die.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    Soooooooooooooo

    Here's something to turn my reads on their head.

    Nancy has been lying about being V/LA.

    https://forum.mafiascum.net/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=31062

    Vote: Nancy
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    Hm, I guess I forgot to account for roz's softing when I was looking at sheep's EoD votes, so that probably does away any level of villageriness about that in Rhand v worlds.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    Quote from Dels_8 »
    didn't realize names in a tier were equal.

    sorry vaimes, i know its my fault =/
    Merp.

    [spoiler=legend]~ separates confirmed alignment from lock reads
    - equals ~2.5%
    )) hard bracket, each hard bracket covers 10-20%
    ) soft bracket, compartmentalizes groupings within a hard bracket
    % is rand (75%)
    > PoE marker
    [] square bracketed slots are not in the lynch pool, even if they are in the PoE
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    Votecount 1.2
    shadowlancerx – 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Wheat_Grinder, Rhand)
    Rhand – 3 (Vaimes, Gemma, shadowlancerx)
    Gemma – 1 (Lastwhisper)
    Wheat_Grinder – 1 (Lissa)
    Not Voting – 4 (Regfan, Killjoy, roz_the_eevee, Nancy Drew 39)



    Votecount 1.3
    shadowlancerx – 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Rhand, Lastwhisper)
    Rhand – 2 (Vaimes, Gemma)
    Wheat_Grinder – 1 (Lissa)
    roz_the_eevee – 1 (shadowlancerx)
    Killjoy – 1 (Wheat_Grinder)
    Not Voting – 4 (Regfan, Killjoy, roz_the_eevee, Nancy Drew 39)



    Votecount 1.4
    shadowlancerx – 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Rhand, Lastwhisper)
    Rhand - 3 (Vaimes, shadowlancerx, Gemma)
    Wheat_Grinder - 1 (Lissa)
    Killjoy – 1 (Wheat_Grinder)
    Lissa – 1 (roz_the_eevee)
    Killjoy (1): Wheat_Grinder
    Not Voting – 3 (Regfan, Killjoy, Nancy Drew 39)



    Votecount 1.5
    shadowlancerx – 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Rhand, Lastwhisper)
    Rhand – 2 (Vaimes, shadowlancerx)
    Wheat_Grinder – 2 (Lissa, Killjoy)
    Lissa – 1 (roz_the_eevee)
    Lastwhisper – 1 (Wheat_Grinder)
    roz_the_eevee – 1 (Gemma)
    Not Voting – 2 (Regfan, Nancy Drew 39)



    Votecount 1.6
    shadowlancerx - 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Lastwhisper, Wheat_Grinder)
    roz_the_eevee - 3 (Gemma, Lissa, shadowlancerx)
    Wheat_Grinder - 2 (Killjoy, Rhand)
    Rhand - 1 (Vaimes)
    Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
    Not Voting - 2 (Regfan, Nancy Drew 39)



    Votecount 1.7
    roz_the_eevee - 4 (Lissa, shadowlancerx, Dels_8, Gemma)
    shadowlancerx - 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Lastwhisper, Wheat_Grinder)
    Wheat_Grinder - 2 (Killjoy, Rhand)
    Lastwhisper - 1 (Vaimes)
    Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
    Not Voting - 1 (Nancy Drew 39)



    Votecount 1.8
    shadowlancerx - 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Lastwhisper, Rhand)
    Wheat_Grinder - 2 (Killjoy, Lissa)
    roz_the_eevee - 2 (Dels_8, Gemma)
    Rhand - 2 (shadowlancerx, Wheat_Grinder)
    Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
    Lastwhisper - 1 (Vaimes)
    Not Voting - 1 (Nancy Drew 39)



    Votecount 1.9
    Rhand - 4 (Killjoy, Vaimes, Wheat_Grinder, shadowlancerx)
    roz_the_eevee - 3 (Gemma, sheepsaysmeep, Lissa)
    Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
    Lastwhisper - 1 (Dels_8)
    shadowlancerx - 1 (Lastwhisper)
    Dels_8 - 1 (Rhand)
    Not Voting - 1 (Nancy Drew 39)



    Votecount 1.10
    roz_the_eevee - 5 (Gemma, sheepsaysmeep, Lissa, Vaimes, Rhand)
    Rhand - 3 (Killjoy, Wheat_Grinder, shadowlancerx)
    Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
    Lastwhisper - 1 (Dels_8)
    shadowlancerx - 1 (Lastwhisper)
    Not Voting - 1 (Nancy Drew 39)



    Day 1 Final Votecount
    roz_the_eevee - 7 (Gemma, sheepsaysmeep, Lissa, Vaimes, Rhand, Wheat_Grinder, Lastwhisper)
    Rhand - 2 (Killjoy, shadowlancerx)
    Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
    Lastwhisper - 1 (Dels_8)
    Not Voting - 1 (Nancy Drew 39)

    I used to do a lot of VCA, not so much anymore. The weirdest / most notable things for me are

    • shadow/Rhand are the only unresolved 3+ wagons (high likelihood that 1 is mafia)
    • sheep voteparking shadow all day, until EoD when Rhand was under threat (little to no scum motivation if Rhand is town)
    • Nancy not voting all day (decent scum marker)
    • 1.9 & 1.10, which suggest sheep/Lissa/Rhand (if wagons are v/v then scum have little motivation to coordinate)
    • Lissa/sheep pushing off Rhand wagon all day (I talked about this in 1586)
    • The timing of Lissa's vote on eevee (1.6, see also my 1660)
    • The votals don't show it, but shadow was throwing his vote around a lot near EoD1, which I think is >rand town

    Quote from Ecophagy »
    Day 1 Final Votecount
    roz_the_eevee - 7 (Gemma, sheepsaysmeep, Lissa, Vaimes, Rhand, Wheat_Grinder, Lastwhisper)
    Rhand - 2 (Killjoy, shadowlancerx)
    Lissa - 1 (roz_the_eevee)
    Lastwhisper - 1 (Dels_8)
    Not Voting - 1 (Nancy Drew 39)
    Day end votal deserves special attention. We have four unconfirmed slots on a lynch, with a very high likelihood of there being at least 1 mafia in the grouping.

    From this votal alone, with sheep/Lissa both unaligned with Nancy, the likelihood of Nancy being mafia is pretty low. The reason for this is that if Rhand is town, the pool for mafia on the wagon shrinks to sheep/Lissa/Vaimes, and the team would have to be Vaimes/shadow/Nancy for Nancy to be mafia.

    There's also a wonky combination of sheep simultaneously looking better if Rhand is v and being much more likely to be a wolf if Rhand is v, which maybe just means that Rhand isn't v?

    If Rhand is town, with a townread on Vaimes, the team is pretty much locked as sheep/Lissa/shadow by virtue of PoE and antialigns.

    Rhand's flip gives us the most information regardless of his alignment, which makes me want to kill him over anyone else. I'm not really concerned with the fact that it would make sheep the de facto lynch tomorrow, because I don't think there's any world where sheep is town if Rhand is v (he can still be town if the team is Rhand/shadow/Lissa).
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    @Hunger The scum agenda for your take on Vaimes is that he's an easy target if he's town. It's funny that you talk about tinfoil because your reads felt more like tinfoil than anything, heh.

    I've seen two townies have the same reads without engaging each other on them before, so I don't think that's indicative of much.

    @Dels What do you mean by equalize shadow and Lissa? They're both sitting at 50/50.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    Hunger - 2 (Vaimes, Gemma)
    shadowlancerx - 1 (Hunger)
    Dels_8 - 1 (Lissa)
    Lissa - 1 (Dels_8)
    sheepsaysmeep - 1 (shadowlancerx)
    Not Voting - 3 (Killjoy, Nancy Drew 39, sheepsaysmeep)

    This wagon formation always lynches a wolf.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    Ngl Vaimes, it's pretty depressing that you stopped playing as soon as I got my laptop back.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    I feel like I'm kind of just playing in the dirt at this point.

    Gemma, eevee, Last, Wheat ~ KJ, Dels )) - Nancy --- Vaimes )) ------ % )) > ------ )) ---- shadow, Lissa ---- sheep )) -------- Hunger ))

    I want to kill Hunger, shoot sheep if he flips scum, leave you guys with shadow/Lissa tomorrow.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    1) You've misunderstood, the reasoning looks like this: generically speaking, I think mafia are more likely to only push on "obvious town" if town are also doing it, so for there to be mafia on you means that it's probably a push led by town, and mafia are in the minority. This isn't strong reasoning or anything and is more of a minor note than anything I'm using to orient my reads around, and scum could also very easily be interested in drowning out your voice with scumreads on you, but that's the gist of that read. This is in a similar vein to sheep's townread on you, and how that would spew you town if sheep were to flip mafia.

    2) I may be giving that too much credit, yeah. But he has to know that you're never getting lynched and any push on you would be insane at this point if he's mafia, so entertaining that without angling on you / shading you seems, eh, okay? I think the weird part of it is that he has pulled you down instead of Vaimes. That's... interesting.

    I also think it's weird that they're both saying the same thing about being chain lynched, but at the same time I think it's somewhat natural for town to be a bit paranoid of that? It's just a matter of reading into how they're reading into that and what they're doing about it.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    @Dels if shadow is a PR then Lissa may be a little shy of pushing on him, was what I was thinking there. You're right though that it's wonky, especially with Hunger pushing on shadow the way that he is. I don't think there is any world where Lissa is scum and sheep is town unless she's with both Hunger and shadow, so keep that in mind.

    I'll try to make a proper post about this, rather than just saying things off the top of my head.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    Quote from Gemma »
    I would really appreciate it if you went into a lot more detail about all of this, but none of it makes sense to me.
    @Gemma: I guess I owe you this. You've kind of put more work into this game than is reasonable, and (even though I still think it's obvious that I'm town) I'm gonna try and show you where I'm at/figure out where I'm at.
    Quote from Gemma »
    Talk about how Nancy/sheep can be a team. Talk about why Nancy is mafia in a way that actually engages with the reasoning put forth about her rather than just writing it off or calling something it isn't.
    I hadn't really considered Nancy and sheep as unaligned; I get that they have a history and sheep despite calling Nancy easy to read has kinda bumbled around that read but...I wouldn't call that or anything they've done really hard clearing.

    That being said, Nancy is a pet read, and I basically think I've been stuck in this place where it's a read against the grain that reminded me of a similar situation in another game. I...am probably just wrong. You're telling me I'm wrong, everyone else is telling me I'm wrong, it's not the same situation, I'm probably looking for reasons to justify it instead of looking for an honest read there. I don't think I can completely lock her in as town, but I'll try and look at the game through a broader lens.
    Quote from Gemma »
    Talk about your Lissa town read.
    So Lissa is never w/w with Nancy, but in addition to that, she's basically played with no guile. Like, she takes her time getting a feel for the game, then comes in periodically to offer thoughts without like, trying to push a narrative. I kind of think if she is scum, she would be playing in such a way that she'd get credit for any of stances she's taken.
    Quote from Gemma »
    Talk about why you've barely been pushing Rhand slot all game despite having a strong scum read. Talk about why you're rolling your eyes at the idea that anyone could think you're together.
    I pushed Rhand pretty hard yesterday, I don't know what you're smoking. Today he's not been present, and Hunger coming into the game has been like...okay posting and I'm somewhat paranoid that he is town and he and I are being setup to be chain lynched.
    Quote from Gemma »
    Talk about why you're content with a sheep lynch when you have what looks like a lock scum read on Hunger.
    To add onto above, I think if one of Hunger/sheep is town, Hunger is more likely to show it. But yeah, a lot of it is paranoia, and it's probably just me being dumb.
    Quote from Gemma »
    Talk about why Nancy town would mean you would have to reconsider Dels.
    Purely a shrinking PoE.

    ~~~~~
    So where am I at?

    I'm town.
    KJ is town.
    Gemma is town.

    I think Vaimes is town.
    Nancy is...probably just town.

    Lissa, Hunger, sheep, Dels

    Ugh. I feel like everyone there has some reason or another to be town.

    I'm rereading those 4. Probably be back in the morning; I've got a sick wife and I've been fighting off the stirrings of a cold myself.
    Thanks a bunch, shadow, I really appreciate it.

    I think this progression on Dels is actually really town of you.

    Like, I mentioned early in the dayphase that one of the people pushing on Dels was probably mafia, and it's because scum tend to be shy of scumreading people who are playing the way Dels has been playing. He's even more blatantly town at this point in the game and thread temperature has moved that way (I have actually locked him as town after his posts while I was asleep, and was 99% sure he was town before that) so for you to move from "Dels town, Gemma weren't you saying he was super town EoD1?" to "Dels in PoE" strikes me as a very real progression from you and not something you would be interested in pursuing as a wolf here.

    Your Nancy read also feels super real, I can sympathize with the way you're struggling with her and I think the way you've talked about her in relation to your other reads feels pretty genuine and I can see how you're trying work things through there.

    Fmpov, both Lissa and sheep are in my PoE, I have them both as unaligned with Nancy, I have a weak townread on Nancy's ISO in a vacuum, so I have more reasons to think she's town than not. I would love to feel better about her, and I am admittedly somewhat overcompensating because if she's town then clearing her is a winning move, but I don't have huge reasons to doubt it other than niggles like "ugh my scumread on sheep isn't that strong, if he's town then maybe it's her?" "I wish she had actually scumhunted" "why aren't scum going after her more / trying to open up that lynch again" (you're the only one who fits with that) and I don't think entertaining those thoughts is super helpful at this stage. I do feel reasonably confident that I can lock her as town and remove those little doubts in the next 2 days before deadline if she is town, provided she actually does things. In other words, I don't think you're completely insane for thinking that Nancy could be mafia, I just wanted/want to see you engage with that as a real thing and not say "well I don't care much about the stuff you're reading into because it could just be playstyle / whatever and I'm just going to scumread her".

    I like your Lissa read. I don't really think she's town but I can vibe with that take on her.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    Quote from Hunger »
    Quote from Dels_8 »

    btw @hunger you should know that i have a team that says they have played 30+ games with vaimes and they've never read him wrong a single time and they say he is town here with pretty high certainty. i know that's not what you wanna hear but trust me, at this point in my mafia career, i've learned to just trust this stuff.
    That's well and good for you, but I don't have that benefit and like, I have to go by the info I have right now. I have no interest in a Vaimes lynch toDay though to be clear. I want shadow lynched toDay. Pretty sure shadow/I need to be sorted because if we are both town we are going to be chain lynched into a flawless scum victory. If shadow flips town I'm pretty sure there is at least one deep scum in the "consensus" town PoE.
    I don't really buy that he has no interest in lynching a scumread, and I don't buy the thought about a flawless scum victory. Feels like fear mongering and excuse to shove on shadow.

    Quote from Hunger »
    @Dels
    I think I didn't explain my point well in that first point? Yes, pairs can be good and it's a natural part of PoE. I'm doing it too. Just the number of times I have felt like I've read "unless I'm very wrong" is like 100, which rubs me the wrong way, because duh.

    The second point is in direct reply to Vaimes saying he doesn't even want to try for the rest of the Day essentially. It's less about fear and more about the fact that he is my second highest scum read right now, he has his vote parked on me, and he doesn't want to move it or do anything. Oh...that reminds me, check out this tasty quote of him contradicting this exact mindset in regards to LW:

    842 - “Don't really find the mindset of "vote stays until further notice" to be town-indicative.”

    Isn't that exactly what he is doing here? But actually worse since he is refusing to interact with me? Last at least continued interacting despite being stubborn with his vote. Vaimes first reply to me trying to ask him a question was "Read the thread."
    This is just painting imo. I don't think this is a real read and I don't think he's remotely interested in understanding Vaimes.

    Quote from Hunger »
    Also of note on this point is part of what I was asking Vaimes about in the above quoted 585 post. Vaimes also ignored the fact that the shadow wagon stalled out which is giving me Vaimes/shadow s/s vibes. The fact that their apparent LW reads (which I will get to more) and side-stepping? this stalled shadow wagon thing has me thinking they are mind-melding, but they don't seem to be intentionally doing it, pointing it out, or even noticing it?
    All of his reasoning in that post feels forced / fake but this is just never a real w/w read imo. Two people mindmelding is a reason for them to both be town, for one of them to be pocketed, or for them to be unaligned, not for them to be w/w. I don't know Hunger well enough to determine whether or not these can be real town thoughts from him, but the whole thing feels played up and I don't feel any real pulse of organic thought from him.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Team Mafia Game 1 - The Death of Stalin - Day 3
    Quote from Dels_8 »
    sorry, i usually post only when i have solid things to say and i'm just rambling here. i wish i could be more specific but my opinion on who the townie is keeps shifting every 5 minutes.

    i think my order right now is something like sheep > shadow > hunger > lissa

    but that's entirely from recency bias, i like the way that lissa is pushing sheep here a lot more than how shadow did it (or rather, didn't, just voted and uhh yeah), and it feels like lissa is finally starting to get on basically the same page as me about the game, and it doesn't feel forced. (i.e. it doesn't feel like she's doing it just because it's what i said/expected) also letting myself be influenced by the fact that shadow looks pretty bad right now and the way lissa is against him here, again, feels less likely to be w/w than the shadow/hungerrhand stuff. and i just went back and read lissa's post on shadow/rhand and i'm back to thinking it can just be w/w. but the last two spots are really close for me, i'm far from locked in here.
    The only thing I dislike about shadow's push on sheep in and of itself is that he's basing it on meta, but I'm not sure that's even scummy for him necessarily. I'll talk more about this after shadow posts again.

    It's weird that you don't think Lissa's push on sheep feels forced, because it does to me, and I think if she's scum with Hunger here then it's her best play, especially if shadow is town and she doesn't want to push on him. If you track her shadow scumread, she came around pretty strongly to him being mafia here, yet hasn't actually pushed on him and is now going for sheep. I don't think that makes much sense in a very similar way to how shadow pushing off Hunger onto sheep doesn't make sense, and I haven't seen her thinking about "huh why is shadow on this wagon with me" or such at all. I think it's probably a worse look for her than it is for shadow, though.

    There are more things that are starting to align for me with shadow v/Hunger w worlds - Lissa retracting her Rhand/shadow antialign (which I think was also a weird read to make given she was townreading Rhand), Hunger's read on Lissa, Lissa and Hunger's treatment of shadow. I should make a separate post about this, but I'm kind of feeling a Hunger/Lissa team rn. You've moved away from that, so I'd appreciate your thoughts on whether I'm insane or selling myself a narrative or such.
    Posted in: Mafia
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