Honestly, if they've stuck a Jace, esp. game 1, we've probably lost. I'm trying out the more aggro list, kommands in the side with dismembers and 2x tbr, 4x stubb main, opt over SV. Fatal push #3-4 are now bolts #1-2, with humans' recent prevalence I'd been thinking about upping my bolt count anyway.
I firmly believe that, in most matchups, a 6 or 7 without a threat isn't keepable (others may dispute me on this). A 7 that can't get a 4/4 shadow or delve creature out t3, blind at least, is usually a mull too, though we have enough cheap spells and life loss that if I can eventually cast a threat I'm more flexible in matches that aren't explicitly races. An MB LoTV can be a fine meta call, but it is meta-dependant- I used to be on 2 mb, which was pretty great until more robots and fish replaced the e-tron and storm I had been seeing.
Burn comes down to a couple points of life usually- you shouldn't be fetch-shocking vs. them unless it's going to allow you to stick a blocker and they already have a creature down. Fetching tapped shocks and basics vs. them is way more important than usual. Don't use stubb D for anything besides something that'll literally kill you, blood moon (without a swamp + island out), RIP (if you have a delve threat in hand), or a path that'll kill your only creature. Sideboard out your street wraiths, go up to 4 stubb Ds, then bring in all your brutalities, then bring in... young pryos? I still like thoughtseize in the matchup because it can protect you from their post-board haymakers or get rid of an eidolon, which can single-handedly end the matchup exceedingly quickly. Snapcaster mage as just an ambush viper to trade 1-for-1 with one of their creatures is a perfectly acceptable plan. You want to land a creature early.
Jeskai control/tempo is probably a terrible matchup, but I haven't really played that matchup much. Anything with that many bolts alongside snapcasters and fliers to exploit that reach is terrifying.
Vs. U/W control, I try to shave on spot removal for LOTVs and going up on stubb Ds. An argument can probably be made for Young Pyro and Brutality as well. I haven't had much practice with this matchup, but generally what I try to do is discard their board wipes. If they have a verdict and you had to get something else (or they have two verdicts), be careful not to play into it- you want to minimize their 2-for-1s as much as possible. I haven't had the opportunity to test this with TBRs yet, but I think you SB those out too. These are definitely our worst matchups though.
Affinity is like burn, but your discard becomes worse much faster. You want to fetch like you would against burn imo, and sb out your street wraiths (which are a liability in both matchups). You probably also want to shave on discard- not all of it, because affinity hands usually rely on 1-2 pieces to actually work and so that can buy you time. Bring in all your rejections and all your board wipes, and max out on Kommands. I don't think young pyros are good here, affinity doesn't care too much about legions of ground-based blockers, despite how wide they can get.
What do we think of dismember? I've noticed a lot of lists running a 1/1 dismember/terminate split lately, but it always feels too all-in for me. Against most creature decks or in grindy games (where the spot removal is particularly relevant) you often want to board out your street wraiths because too much life loss causes issues with hitting land drops and protecting yourself from random silliness lategame. So why do we run spot removal that either costs us life or is a worse terminate, when most matchups where it'd actually have targets are ones where an extra 2-4 life makes a big difference?
Burn comes down to a couple points of life usually- you shouldn't be fetch-shocking vs. them unless it's going to allow you to stick a blocker and they already have a creature down. Fetching tapped shocks and basics vs. them is way more important than usual. Don't use stubb D for anything besides something that'll literally kill you, blood moon (without a swamp + island out), RIP (if you have a delve threat in hand), or a path that'll kill your only creature. Sideboard out your street wraiths, go up to 4 stubb Ds, then bring in all your brutalities, then bring in... young pryos? I still like thoughtseize in the matchup because it can protect you from their post-board haymakers or get rid of an eidolon, which can single-handedly end the matchup exceedingly quickly. Snapcaster mage as just an ambush viper to trade 1-for-1 with one of their creatures is a perfectly acceptable plan. You want to land a creature early.
Jeskai control/tempo is probably a terrible matchup, but I haven't really played that matchup much. Anything with that many bolts alongside snapcasters and fliers to exploit that reach is terrifying.
Vs. U/W control, I try to shave on spot removal for LOTVs and going up on stubb Ds. An argument can probably be made for Young Pyro and Brutality as well. I haven't had much practice with this matchup, but generally what I try to do is discard their board wipes. If they have a verdict and you had to get something else (or they have two verdicts), be careful not to play into it- you want to minimize their 2-for-1s as much as possible. I haven't had the opportunity to test this with TBRs yet, but I think you SB those out too. These are definitely our worst matchups though.
Affinity is like burn, but your discard becomes worse much faster. You want to fetch like you would against burn imo, and sb out your street wraiths (which are a liability in both matchups). You probably also want to shave on discard- not all of it, because affinity hands usually rely on 1-2 pieces to actually work and so that can buy you time. Bring in all your rejections and all your board wipes, and max out on Kommands. I don't think young pyros are good here, affinity doesn't care too much about legions of ground-based blockers, despite how wide they can get.
4 Death's Shadow
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
2 Gurmag Angler
3 Street Wraith
Instants (17)
4 Thought Scour
3 Stubborn Denial
3 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command
2 Opt
2 Terminate
1 Lightning Bolt
4 Thoughtseize
4 Serum Visions
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
Lands(18)
4 Polluted Delta
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Scalding Tarn
2 Blood Crypt
2 Watery Grave
1 Steam Vents
1 Island
1 Swamp
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Disdainful Stroke
2 Liliana of the Veil
2 Collective Brutality
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Young Pyromancer
1 Stubborn Denial
1 Flaying Tendrils
1 Liliana, the Last Hope