One final tournament with my 5c Rhino Saheeli before the unbans take effect, went 2-3.
List was the same as on Wednesday (see above, only swapped Damping Matrix for a second Stony Silence). I lost to Lantern, Titanshift and Burn while beating Jeskai Control and Affinity. Blade Splicer continues to perform very well, and the mana base worked smoothly. Overall I was happy with the deck and my play, but sometimes the opponent just topdecks Anger of the Gods right after you saw their hand...
There is another tournament coming up for me on Tuesday, I might run it back.
Wingmate Roc can certainly go wrong, and when I first tested the card (Abzan Evolution without Saheeli at the time) I was doing it with the intention to get this crazy idea out of my system. However, it impressed me immensely right away, and triggering Raid is easier than I thought. You can usually make some kind of attack with a Voice, Blade Splicer, Spirit token or Bird, and people often wait with their removal until after you attacked (Exalted makes them more likely to do that). Roc is great if you are ahead (I like it a lot more as an early Evo target than Thragtusk, since it just flies over most blockers), great in stalled board states (which deck can defend against multiple big fliers?) and great against spot removal. It's an insane blocker against Affinity, gains you a solid amount of life when you are racing, and 3/4 is just the right size to dodge both Anger of the Gods and Elspeth Sun's Champion -3. Basically the only clean answers to it are Thoughtseize, Supreme Verdict/Damnation, and counterspells. It synergizes with Felidar Guardian and Saheeli well (Saheeli even gives you the choice to copy before combat for 3 damage and some extra lifegain or post combat for a permanent extra 3/4 flier).
You do of course run into situations where you can't trigger raid, and casting Roc in these cases feels bad, but you are still getting a passable effect for your 5 mana. A Restoration Angel with nothing to flicker is the same size for example. My rough estimate is that I have played 100-200 matches with Wingmate Roc at this point, and the cases where I couldn't trigger Raid and lost because of that were a lot fewer than the ones where Roc was between solid and absolutely game winning. I'd say 90%+ of my Rocs were cast with Raid.
The basic idea is to be an Abzan deck with Saheeli. Once you draw Oath, you only need Abzan colors from your lands (with one exception in the sideboard). Without Oath, dorks and fetchlands can fix for Saheeli. Luckily, I drew plenty of Oaths tonight and my dorks were mostly left in peace. The deck is not focused on the combo, but has access to it for matchups where the midrange plan fails.
Round 1: I faced UW control and had really good draws in both games. Dork into turn 2 Blade Splicer, Rallier returning Oath and Gaddock Teeg respectively, Saheeli copying Rhino, etc. His draws were below average and he couldn't keep up. Luckily, he drew no Field of Ruin or Spreading Seas to punish my greedy mana. 1-0
Round 2: I knew that my opponent was on GW value town, and expected to struggle in a fair fight, unless Wingmate Roc or Elspeth help steal a game in the air. I did indeed have a quick Elspeth in the first game, and barricaded behind a Blade Splicer + Voice while he set up his engine. I ran out of basics against his constant Ghost Quarters, but Elspeth almost got to ulti before he overwhelmed me.
Game 2 and 3 both ended quickly via combo. Exactly what it's meant to do 2-0
Round 3: Tron. He was slow in game 1, and I got him to 5 life before Ugin it the board. Luckily, Golem tokens don't care, so another hit for 3 plus a Rhino from hand brought me over the finish line. Games 2 and 3 he had turn 3 Tron, and that was that. I knew going in that the matchup wouldn't be easy with my list, so losing to it was no surprise. 2-1
Round 4: Traverse Shadow. Another match with fantastic draws for me, I won in two games that weren't close. The highlight was Rallier returning Rest in Peace after it got hit by discard. 3-1
Bonus: Before the tournament I played a best of 5 against a friend with Affinity. I lost the first two with mediocre draws on my side, but won all three sideboarded games.
Overall I was very happy with the deck's performance, and I especially liked Blade Splicer. It was a solid attacker, blocker, flicker target, and even left me with a 3/3 after Ugin's arrival. Very versatile, easy to cast, and has plenty of synergy. Thanks maniospas, your repeated praise for the card finally got through to me, and it was a very good thing!
In a BBE build, Birds should probably make room for Hierarchs. Not making red mana can be compensated by using fetchlands accordingly, but exalted becomes noticably more relevant with BBE. Attacking through Snapcaster, Thalia etc and dealing an extra point of damage vs Storm seems like a solid upside.
I think if you run BBE, you also want Glorybringer (or maybe Angel of Sanctions). The dragon clears the way for the 3/2 to attack, and if you have a 3-drop in play and hit Evolution off cascade, having access to that effect seems very attractive. We shouldn't add BBE if we can't make use of its body reliably, so we need ways to convert it into damage. The cascade trigger alone isn't enough.
I think our best bet against UW control is still to out-tempo them with 4x Voice, 2x Gaddock (!), and 1-2x Selfless Spirit backed up by 2-3x Renegade Rallier and 1-2x Blade Splicer, with a spell suite of a few Spell Pierce, Unified Will, Dispel, or Cancel to help push early threats through. In short it’s about having strong 2 & 3 drops rather than splashy come-back cards like Sun Titan or attempting to combo.
The problem with that approach is that some of the other controlling decks have Anger of the Gods or Flaying Tendrils, both of which punish going wide with small creatures. It works against UW specifically or if you have the right answers at the right time (Selfless Spirit, early countermagic), but it can also go very wrong.
My thoughts on the unbans: We could in theory try both JTMS and BBE, but neither seems like it fits into our strategy well. We can't protect Jace and ourself reliably and long enough for him to win the game for us. However, maybe Squadron Hawk could help? (Card advantage engine with Jace's Brainstorm and okay creature to sac to Evo)
BBE has no synergy with our core (Saheeli, Felidar, Evo) since it triggers on cast, and a 3/2 haste is decent in some matchups, but doesn't really add anything extraordinary to our strategy. It would push us into a more midrange / aggressive role, but it's lack of synergy seems like too big a hurdle.
On the opposite side of the table, BBE could actually be a good thing for us. It's finally a relevant creature that can be blocked by a 1/4, and it also trades with Voice, Eternal Witness etc. If it becomes a big factor in the metagame (which is a big if), even Wall of Omens might become interesting again. Of course it can also occasionally cascade into Kolaghans Command or Liliana and destroy us, but overall I don't think we are unhappy about BBE in the format.
Facing Jace will probably not be great for us. We don't have a lot of pressure, especially since Jace kills Voice tokens easily. On the other hand, tapping out against us can be scary, so there will be games where the threat of the combo holds Jace at bay for a while.
Concerning the synergy of some of the cards with Saheeli: I copy Voice of Resurgence frequently, for multiple reasons. First, you can copy Voice and sac the copy to Evo, netting you a free Voice token (then if you tutor for Felidar Guardian and they have a removal spell to stop the combo, the original Voice gives you another token! Not hard to win from that position). Also, copying Voice before casting Felidar Guardian from hand into open mana forces the opponent to give you multiple Voice tokens to stop the combo. Finally, Voice tokens are great copy targets: If your opponent casts Supreme Verdict and you are left with a 1/1 Elemental and Saheeli, you can untap, play a random creature, copy the token and attack for 6. With a fresh Saheeli in hand, you could copy the token twice and swing for 9!
Oh and as an aside, Voice also gives you a way to win via combo through Thalia, Heretic Cathar, Ghostly Prison, Runed Halo or Jace, Architect of Thought: Infinite cats grow Voice tokens to infinite power. You can even use the final Saheeli -2 (you get another activation after you stop making cats) on the token to get a hasted copy (if the original is summoning sick or you need another attacker to get around a blocker).
Copying Birds/Hierach/Cobra is another useful line to get extra mana on crucial turns. For example, you can go t1 Birds, t2 Saheeli, t3 copy Birds, cast a 2-drop plus Evolution for the combo win. Or, if you are short on lands, use Saheeli to get to 4 mana in order to cast Felidar Guardian from hand.
Even Tireless Tracker can be copied for good reasons, getting a bonus clue or two and an extra attack for 3+ damage is useful. When I am facing control and my opponent has no open mana, I would take that opportunity every time.
All of that isn't optimal, but it comes up, and knowing and seeing those lines in the 20% of games where they are available matters.
@Shanti: Your mana base needs work. 4 blue shock lands is unnecessary, 2 should do it (one of each Breeding Pool and Hallowed Fountain). Also, there is no need for more than one Temple Garden. Instead, add 1-2 more basics, 2 Horizon Canopy if available, and fetchland #11 (Cobra and Rallier need it). Btw, Verdant Catacombs is strictly inferior to Misty Rainforest in your build, since it can't get Hallowed Fountain.
Like the others, I'm also not a fan of the sideboarded combo pieces (if Cobra even counts as that...), it's better to be interactive with your sideboard cards or generate value from a different angle (Tireless Tracker). Also, since you mention Tron and Scapeshift as matchups that force you to be fast: With 4-5 basic lands and enough dorks, Blood Moon is a perfectly fine sideboard card for such matchups.
Cool that you found your way to the archetype and to this thread, welcome!
Most of us have made the experience that control decks that don't close out the game in a timely fashion are decent matchups, since Voice, Rallier, Witness, Titan etc generate a lot of value in a long game, so we can usually keep up with their card advantage.
Looking at your list, you might want at least a second Felidar Guardian to ensure a single Path, Thought Knot Seer etc doesn't completely shut off your combo with Saheeli. Also, with 4 Cobra and 4 Rallier, 8 fetchlands aren't enough. I suggest going up to 10-12, and removing Canopy Vista, a Temple Garden and 1-3 forests.
Wish obviously improves the matchups where sideboard cards are trump, like Storm, Lantern, Affinity. Getting access to the perfect card for the problem at hand without having to dilute maindeck is great there.
I prefer 4 cobra/4rallier to 2 arbor elf for sure. Much more explosive especially vs Tron allowing you to dump a ton of power out t2 and just race tron.
Well, if that actually happened like this all the time, it would really be great in the matchup (and every other one). But let's be honest, even with all 4-ofs of these cards, you don't always get these draws. While you're increasing your chances to explode onto the board quickly, you also fill your deck with more cards that neither actually win on the spot nor interact with decks like Storm, Affinity or Titanshift. You do, however, get punished even harder by Anger of the Gods and similar sweepers.
While on the surface, Lotus Cobra has a relevant 2/1 body, in practice having a few 2/1s isn't always such a great thing. Imagine facing a 1/3 Baral or a 2/3 Reflector Mage or a Young Pyromancer with some tokens.
While Cobra has an extremely high ceiling, there are also a lot of ways it can go wrong.
Windborn Muse is another option if we want to go that route. A lot more vulnerable than Ghostly Prison and comes down a turn later, but can be found by Evo and Oath and has the ability to attack and block. Archangel of Tithes might be even more powerful, but is nearly impossible to cast. (Wooded Bastion?)
Taxing attacks is good against some aggressive cards (Signal Pest, Steel Overseer, Ezuri with finite mana, Mutavault, Blinkmoth Nexus, Lingering Souls, Reckless Bushwhacker, Bloodghast, Flameblade Adept, as well as Kiki combo, Empty the Warrens, Goryo's Vengeance and Through the Breach), but not against all of them (Aether Vial, Elvish Archdruid, Champion of the Parish, Cranial Plating, Bogles, Infect, Geist of Saint Traft).
This approach actually combines well with instant speed removal or chump blocking (P&K, Voice, Finks, Resto Angel) since both things punish opponents for attacking with only 1-2 creatures. Reflector Mage also seems potent in this context: Replaying a creature costs the opponent even more of his mana. Avalanche Riders works with that plan too by restricting mana and chump blocking.
Because, I don't think I'm clear enough, I'll give an example:
T1 land -> dork
T2 fetch -> rallier (3 lands in play + dork)
T3 land -> rhino and there's an untapped land in play
The funny thing is, what if you don't actually have the third land in hand? Then the Rallier actually does something very useful by enabling you to cast that Rhino.
Or what if you are facing a deck where holding up an extra mana for Path is important? Even if you're just bluffing it, that's actually good.
So I can just as easily find examples where the two cards interact well
A few weeks ago I did some test games against a friend with WB Eldrazi and completely demolished him, somewhere in the ballpark of 12-1 games (at least 8 of them sideboarded). I won lots of games with Blood Moon and the combo, however I also remember him taking a lot more mulligans than me. His list wasn't perfect, but the matchup felt really favored to me. Obviously your 5c list can't use Blood Moon, which is the easiest route to victory here.
In my experience, the way to beat Mirran Crusader is by having creatures that block it well: Reflector Mage, double Felidar Guardian, Blade Splicer, Lancers. You can also remove it with P&K, Glorybringer, Helix or Path. The card is annoying, but there are a decent number of ways to beat it. Just remember that it's often even more important to answer Eldrazi Displacer.
@ daviusminimus: As for cards that solve your problematic matchups: Sigarda Herons Grace (Storm, Burn, Valakut) and Worship (Burn, Dredge, Affinity) would be my ideas.
Scrabbling Claws seems bad. Just too low impact for my taste.
List was the same as on Wednesday (see above, only swapped Damping Matrix for a second Stony Silence). I lost to Lantern, Titanshift and Burn while beating Jeskai Control and Affinity. Blade Splicer continues to perform very well, and the mana base worked smoothly. Overall I was happy with the deck and my play, but sometimes the opponent just topdecks Anger of the Gods right after you saw their hand...
There is another tournament coming up for me on Tuesday, I might run it back.
You do of course run into situations where you can't trigger raid, and casting Roc in these cases feels bad, but you are still getting a passable effect for your 5 mana. A Restoration Angel with nothing to flicker is the same size for example. My rough estimate is that I have played 100-200 matches with Wingmate Roc at this point, and the cases where I couldn't trigger Raid and lost because of that were a lot fewer than the ones where Roc was between solid and absolutely game winning. I'd say 90%+ of my Rocs were cast with Raid.
4x Noble Hierarch
3x Birds of Paradise
4x Voice of Resurgence
1x Qasali Pridemage
2x Blade Splicer
1x Renegade Rallier
1x Vengeful Rebel
3x Siege Rhino
2x Felidar Guardian
1x Wingmate Roc
Other Spells 16
4x Oath of Nissa
4x Saheeli Rai
1x Elspeth, Knight-Errant
3x Eldritch Evolution
1x Path to Exile
1x Collective Brutality
2x Lingering Souls
4x Windswept Heath
4x Verdant Catacombs
1x Marsh Flats
1x Breeding Pool
1x Godless Shrine
1x Overgrown Tomb
1x Stomping Ground
1x Temple Garden
2x Forest
2x Plains
1x Swamp
2x Horizon Canopy
1x Gavony Township
1x Gaddock Teeg
1x Sin Collector
1x Reclamation Sage
1x Eidolon of Rhetoric
1x Avalanche Riders
1x Sorin, Solemn Visitor
1x Path to Exile
2x Fatal Push
1x Abrupt Decay
1x Collective Brutality
1x Stony Silence
1x Damping Matrix
2x Rest in Peace
The basic idea is to be an Abzan deck with Saheeli. Once you draw Oath, you only need Abzan colors from your lands (with one exception in the sideboard). Without Oath, dorks and fetchlands can fix for Saheeli. Luckily, I drew plenty of Oaths tonight and my dorks were mostly left in peace. The deck is not focused on the combo, but has access to it for matchups where the midrange plan fails.
Round 2: I knew that my opponent was on GW value town, and expected to struggle in a fair fight, unless Wingmate Roc or Elspeth help steal a game in the air. I did indeed have a quick Elspeth in the first game, and barricaded behind a Blade Splicer + Voice while he set up his engine. I ran out of basics against his constant Ghost Quarters, but Elspeth almost got to ulti before he overwhelmed me.
Game 2 and 3 both ended quickly via combo. Exactly what it's meant to do 2-0
Round 3: Tron. He was slow in game 1, and I got him to 5 life before Ugin it the board. Luckily, Golem tokens don't care, so another hit for 3 plus a Rhino from hand brought me over the finish line. Games 2 and 3 he had turn 3 Tron, and that was that. I knew going in that the matchup wouldn't be easy with my list, so losing to it was no surprise. 2-1
Round 4: Traverse Shadow. Another match with fantastic draws for me, I won in two games that weren't close. The highlight was Rallier returning Rest in Peace after it got hit by discard. 3-1
Bonus: Before the tournament I played a best of 5 against a friend with Affinity. I lost the first two with mediocre draws on my side, but won all three sideboarded games.
Overall I was very happy with the deck's performance, and I especially liked Blade Splicer. It was a solid attacker, blocker, flicker target, and even left me with a 3/3 after Ugin's arrival. Very versatile, easy to cast, and has plenty of synergy. Thanks maniospas, your repeated praise for the card finally got through to me, and it was a very good thing!
The problem with that approach is that some of the other controlling decks have Anger of the Gods or Flaying Tendrils, both of which punish going wide with small creatures. It works against UW specifically or if you have the right answers at the right time (Selfless Spirit, early countermagic), but it can also go very wrong.
My thoughts on the unbans: We could in theory try both JTMS and BBE, but neither seems like it fits into our strategy well. We can't protect Jace and ourself reliably and long enough for him to win the game for us. However, maybe Squadron Hawk could help? (Card advantage engine with Jace's Brainstorm and okay creature to sac to Evo)
BBE has no synergy with our core (Saheeli, Felidar, Evo) since it triggers on cast, and a 3/2 haste is decent in some matchups, but doesn't really add anything extraordinary to our strategy. It would push us into a more midrange / aggressive role, but it's lack of synergy seems like too big a hurdle.
On the opposite side of the table, BBE could actually be a good thing for us. It's finally a relevant creature that can be blocked by a 1/4, and it also trades with Voice, Eternal Witness etc. If it becomes a big factor in the metagame (which is a big if), even Wall of Omens might become interesting again. Of course it can also occasionally cascade into Kolaghans Command or Liliana and destroy us, but overall I don't think we are unhappy about BBE in the format.
Facing Jace will probably not be great for us. We don't have a lot of pressure, especially since Jace kills Voice tokens easily. On the other hand, tapping out against us can be scary, so there will be games where the threat of the combo holds Jace at bay for a while.
Oh and as an aside, Voice also gives you a way to win via combo through Thalia, Heretic Cathar, Ghostly Prison, Runed Halo or Jace, Architect of Thought: Infinite cats grow Voice tokens to infinite power. You can even use the final Saheeli -2 (you get another activation after you stop making cats) on the token to get a hasted copy (if the original is summoning sick or you need another attacker to get around a blocker).
Copying Birds/Hierach/Cobra is another useful line to get extra mana on crucial turns. For example, you can go t1 Birds, t2 Saheeli, t3 copy Birds, cast a 2-drop plus Evolution for the combo win. Or, if you are short on lands, use Saheeli to get to 4 mana in order to cast Felidar Guardian from hand.
Even Tireless Tracker can be copied for good reasons, getting a bonus clue or two and an extra attack for 3+ damage is useful. When I am facing control and my opponent has no open mana, I would take that opportunity every time.
All of that isn't optimal, but it comes up, and knowing and seeing those lines in the 20% of games where they are available matters.
Like the others, I'm also not a fan of the sideboarded combo pieces (if Cobra even counts as that...), it's better to be interactive with your sideboard cards or generate value from a different angle (Tireless Tracker). Also, since you mention Tron and Scapeshift as matchups that force you to be fast: With 4-5 basic lands and enough dorks, Blood Moon is a perfectly fine sideboard card for such matchups.
Most of us have made the experience that control decks that don't close out the game in a timely fashion are decent matchups, since Voice, Rallier, Witness, Titan etc generate a lot of value in a long game, so we can usually keep up with their card advantage.
Looking at your list, you might want at least a second Felidar Guardian to ensure a single Path, Thought Knot Seer etc doesn't completely shut off your combo with Saheeli. Also, with 4 Cobra and 4 Rallier, 8 fetchlands aren't enough. I suggest going up to 10-12, and removing Canopy Vista, a Temple Garden and 1-3 forests.
Well, if that actually happened like this all the time, it would really be great in the matchup (and every other one). But let's be honest, even with all 4-ofs of these cards, you don't always get these draws. While you're increasing your chances to explode onto the board quickly, you also fill your deck with more cards that neither actually win on the spot nor interact with decks like Storm, Affinity or Titanshift. You do, however, get punished even harder by Anger of the Gods and similar sweepers.
While on the surface, Lotus Cobra has a relevant 2/1 body, in practice having a few 2/1s isn't always such a great thing. Imagine facing a 1/3 Baral or a 2/3 Reflector Mage or a Young Pyromancer with some tokens.
While Cobra has an extremely high ceiling, there are also a lot of ways it can go wrong.
Taxing attacks is good against some aggressive cards (Signal Pest, Steel Overseer, Ezuri with finite mana, Mutavault, Blinkmoth Nexus, Lingering Souls, Reckless Bushwhacker, Bloodghast, Flameblade Adept, as well as Kiki combo, Empty the Warrens, Goryo's Vengeance and Through the Breach), but not against all of them (Aether Vial, Elvish Archdruid, Champion of the Parish, Cranial Plating, Bogles, Infect, Geist of Saint Traft).
This approach actually combines well with instant speed removal or chump blocking (P&K, Voice, Finks, Resto Angel) since both things punish opponents for attacking with only 1-2 creatures. Reflector Mage also seems potent in this context: Replaying a creature costs the opponent even more of his mana. Avalanche Riders works with that plan too by restricting mana and chump blocking.
The funny thing is, what if you don't actually have the third land in hand? Then the Rallier actually does something very useful by enabling you to cast that Rhino.
Or what if you are facing a deck where holding up an extra mana for Path is important? Even if you're just bluffing it, that's actually good.
So I can just as easily find examples where the two cards interact well
In my experience, the way to beat Mirran Crusader is by having creatures that block it well: Reflector Mage, double Felidar Guardian, Blade Splicer, Lancers. You can also remove it with P&K, Glorybringer, Helix or Path. The card is annoying, but there are a decent number of ways to beat it. Just remember that it's often even more important to answer Eldrazi Displacer.
Scrabbling Claws seems bad. Just too low impact for my taste.