MTG Salvation

Quote from Voxxicus »

Grape will probably self-hammer, so let me dump some thoughts while I have a couple minutes.

Voxxicus
Tammy

SC

Marko
Empoof

Titus
The Worst

Tubba

Wheat Grinder

Grapefruit

Yes, it's a lot of tiers, but they're fairly distinct.

Tammy is just lock town. It's my strongest town read, second strongest read behind Grape being 100% scum. Please never doubt this, never push this, I don't care if she's alive in a F3, I still think she's lock town. It's entirely behavior/mindset in terms of read strength, and a lot of it is depth and nuance to the way she talks about her team and their interaction, you can just follow her thoughts wandering through posts in a way that is uniquely and distinctly Town!Tammy, and I am very sure on this read.

I think SC is really strongly town here. Empoof, don't do something dumb, never lynch SC before a F3 situation. Read through her progression on me this day phase, I think it's the type of interaction you're looking for. I also think she interacted with Grape on D1 and asked questions that she's unlikely to ask if they're partners, and there's just a consistent effort and body of work here that I pretty firmly think comes from town. I also think she's never w/w with Osie/Wheat, so if he flips red, that just lock clears SC. I don't really think SC is a wolf, period, but the only way I consider them is in a F3 if Osie was town and Grape wolf, but I don't really think that's a world we're looking at. Spend some time in her D1 iso after Grape flips red, and you'll see what I mean, if necessary.

Marko and Empoof I'm somewhat lumping together, despite reads not being quite the same. I don't think either of them are w/w with Grape, though that feeling is stronger on Marko's end than it is Empoof's. I've talked about both of these players a fair bit, Marko just consistently having a kind of villagery disconnectedness where he lacks an agenda feels pretty good. I don't think he pushes on Grape the way he has as w/w with Grape, because he just really hasn't gotten that much credit out of it, or forced it to happen, it just feels like a natural 'I don't like grape, he's probably a wolf' kind of push that comes from town significantly more. I was kind of expecting him to have more presence as either alignment, so he's like, theoretically possible to consider late game, it's not as lock town as Tammy, but I feel pretty good about Marko being town. I've talked a lot about Empoof too, and I don't...really think he's w/w with Grape? I guess? It's at least possible, but Empoof just feels like the mislynch the scum were hoping to get this game until they were forced to distance desperately today. If Wheat is town he's someone I'd at least consider later in game though, probably with Tubba, given his perplexing defense there, but I do think he's Just Town.

Titus and The Worst are likewise lumped together in that I think they're probably both town, but they're less town than everyone else, and there's things that give me some pause. I actually kind of like Titus pushing against me and Tammy, despite it being sort of baffling, because it's the kind of baffling and weird I was expecting to see from her as town. Less of the 'give people what they want' kind of feel from it, and more stubborn-ness and 'this is what I'm seeing from the votes'. And like. I kind of have trouble seeing this line that she's taking 'Grape wolf, Osie town' making sense as grape/titus/osie, and as grape/titus/non-osie, and it's possible that just makes her town here. I think TW is probbbbbbbbably town, but it's frankly not due to anything he's done himself. He's kind of irritating from a playstyle perspective because he refuses to flesh things out and give any kind of depth/nuance to thoughts and reads and it makes it impossible to get into his head. I'm still not all that sure he's actually read much of d1 beyond first couple pages and last couple pages, tbh, and coming in and tunneling Grape and Osie (but mostly staying on Osie) feels kind of weird given Grape is just obviously scum here and will flip red shortly. Like. Is it TMI, and he's Too Right, without showing any kind of process in terms of getting to those reads? (If this is w/w grape/osie)? Maybe? I think Trob, his predecessor is actually more useful to read, and I think that they're unaligned with Grape given D1 interactions. Spend some time combing back over that for depth/nuance/weirdness, because I'm not as sure on that as I'd like to be. I've tossed TW's interactions and push around in my head a bit and I ultimately keep coming back to it being too weird and too blatant to be a wolf that needs to go deep. Like if this is W/V, him pushing Osie over Grape when Grape is going to flip this game 100% is just...weird and is going to make him look obviously bad. If it's w/w, then he...locked himself into those two being his only scum reads and needing to win in a final 3 despite not... really doing much to look town beyond 'have correct reads' and both lines feel somewhat suicidal, like he never wins as a wolf taking either of them. So he's probably just town.

That leaves three names. Grape. Wheat/Osie. Tubba.

Grape is just 100% lock scum, this is ever his villager game, etc. Read through my posts where I tried to reach out to him, called him out on his progression on me not making sense, called him out on having no depth to reads, and him just kind of rolling over and self-voting over his scum read, and the claim and just... he's never town here.

Wheat/Osie is a combination of PoE/everyone else being town, and just... having some extremely, extremely bad interactions with Grape. Comb over those cross-pushes on each other again, and look at my posts I made about Osie's mindset. His scum reads matched the scum reads myself and TW had, except on himself/each other, yet he acted in a manner that was...disproportionate, I guess. It just doesn't make sense for him to be so annoyed/upset at 'lurkers' scum reading him when we were both voting his 'top' scum read with him. Think about the mindset that has to come from, and then go look at the interactions with Grape again. It's so over the top and blatant and they're just...clearly w/w here. The wind sucked out of both of their sails after that push got identified as w/w, and Wheat's intro posts do nothing to change my mind. Him pushing on Grape as hard as he is I don't think is a real progression, given Grape just self-voted the post before he posted. I don't believe Osie didn't mention Grape being his top scum read or talk about the game in the chat at all if town, and just have so much trouble believing that slot is town this game.

Tubba is an interesting case, where it's partially PoE, and partially interactions with Grape and Osie. He fits incredibly neatly into that team as the third member, and my team is 100% convinced he's w/w with Grape after combing over both of their iso's and looking at mentions/interactions with each other. I think his recent push against Grape is unlike anything he's ever done (in any game, as any alignment), and feels an awful lot like TMI. He's pushing hard against Grape becaues he knows Grape is scum, and is trying to generate unalignment. It's just.... too late. His D1 Grape interactions are pretty interesting to look at, he hedges a lot, refusing to really take a stance, but keeping the option to town read Grape on the table as long/much as he can. My team actually is kind of divided here, I might have lied a little. One of them is 100% locked in on Grape/Tubba/Osie, the other is kind of going 'I guessssss' at it, because everyone else is town, but there's one specific post of Tubba's that they're kind of coming back to, where he's not sure what others are seeing in Grape, that it's kind of weird to say about a partner. I think it's a good post, and I'd generally agree, but like. Everyone else is town, and I don't think that recent post from Tubba comes from him as town.

So, yeah.

I'm pretty dialed in on Grape > Wheat > Tubba, in that order, and I'd be frankly pretty surprised if any of them were town.

I fully expect to die tonight, unless they feel the need to go PR hunting I guess, so this is my legacy. Put in the work, don't get lazy/complacent, but don't let any of those three endgame, thanks.

Glgl.

Quote from Voxxicus »

Let's talk about Titus, too, while you're here.

Like, put yourself in her spot, she's scum with Grape, the third is ????.

If Osie is town, does she tunnel her buddy while hard defending Osie?

If Osie is a wolf, does she tunnel one buddy while hard defending the other when they're called w/w?

Does she have such a bad grasp on the gamestate/threadflow to try and call myself or Tammy possible scum as a wolf?

I've spent a fair bit of time going over her posts, and I think I've come to the conclusion that she just...genuinely believes that bull*****, there's a kind of quiet, independent conviction to it where she's not really pushing it, but just believes it.

She was my top scum read going into N1, but I've slowly come around to her maybe? just being town.

Quote from Scarlet Rage »

Quote from Voxxicus »

I mean, it's not a bad thing. I just don't think we learn anything new by doing it. We already know he's a wolf, and it doesn't give any clarity to the gamestate.

Actually, Grape flipping scum shows why Osie is a terrible lynch, unless Grape flips PR.

Quote from Voxxicus »

My team concurs that it is not a real thought, and wants him dead dead dead.

Quote from Wheat_Grinder »

Quote from Foopme »

Quote from Wheat_Grinder »

oh hey mtgs isn't crashing repeatedly anymore

for now, anyway.

With the downtimes as well as a crunch time at work, I still haven't gotten off of page 13. I'm planning to get up to speed overNight moreso now as a result.

I'm willing to hammer Grape. I'll do so sometime toMorrow if someone else hasn't already.

Yeah I’m probably speed lunching you toMorrow so glgl

sounds tasty

Either way I've made my peace with it. I think my flip will prove you and Tammy scum so I think it's necessary.

Quote from Wheat_Grinder »

oh hey mtgs isn't crashing repeatedly anymore

for now, anyway.

With the downtimes as well as a crunch time at work, I still haven't gotten off of page 13. I'm planning to get up to speed overNight moreso now as a result.

I'm willing to hammer Grape. I'll do so sometime toMorrow if someone else hasn't already.

Quote from Voxxicus »

I think the answer to all of those questions is probably no, for what it's worth, instead of...the opposite.

Quote from Voxxicus »

Quote from Foopme »

Quote from Voxxicus »

Still the one thing that has me a little hesitant on you tbh, because I don't think I'd done anything up to that point indicating I was enjoying the villager rand, because my eyes were melting out of my skull.

Indulge me and pull up some posts that made you think that, prior to you locking me in as town.

it was mostly your Ara push iirc

I’m on mobile so **** that but look at how disengaged and disinterested you were in 100 early vs here. I didn’t read anni early game but mash comparisons etc. You were really thirsty to brutally murder a wolf and your mindset about it was good.

Also you saying “sorry empoof it’s Ara” was like... idk I don’t think you would’ve handled it that way. You probably would’ve asked “why not Ara” first or air balled some prepping things as a wolf in case I had some IC related read on her.

It was just a stark difference to me and I felt it in my nards

Hm.

I dunno if it was noticeably different to my Fenwicked push in 100 though?