Quote from frozencajun »Quote from 0oSunnYo0 »10% more mulligans without birds is the killer for me.
I'm seeing a lot of calculations are calculating what chance we have of finding a 'perfect' opener of exactly 1 dork 2 lands. Even if the best case scenario is only increased slightly by the presence of birds, you will have 10% more hands without a dork straight up without them so the worst case scenario is significantly more likely without birds.
Less mulligans = more wins. Birds may not make the deck 'more better' but they do make it 'less bad'.
This is also wrong. Please stop misleading people. I have stated multiple times now the percentages I gave in my breakdown were from x= being exactly and x> being at least.
I understand where you are getting your number from. You are looking at the probability of not getting at least 1 mana dork in your opener. The problem with that is quite simple.
Just because you increase your ability to get a ramp card doesn’t mean you will automatically increase your ability to also get your lands too. We need BOTH the ramp and the lands. If you have 1 Ramp and 1 land you will throw it back more times than not. Same with 1 Ramp and no land which is why I did the math as I did.
So you’re incorrect with your 10% mulligan as it doesn’t look at the whole picture.
I keep 1 land and 1 ramp often, especially if it's my 6 or I'm on the draw. 2 ramp and 1 land is also good.