Okay well I wrote myself a sideboard guide based on one of your previous post so I screw up sideboarding less, but @bloody do you have any hints for hollow one, Bogles (hexproof), Dredge and KCI(Ironworks Combo). I'm going to scg Indy at the end of July and want to be prepared.
Yeah I realize that now haha. Made some mistakes for sure. I was trying stuff and I didn't get punished for it. Could of definitely done it better for sure. I do need to learn to side board better and I'm working on it. I don't get to play as much as I want to.i appreciate the feedback
Round 1: 8-Rack won 2-1
Game 1: He tore my hand apart the first couple turns but I kept making land drops while keeping his damage dealers off the battlefield. He took 2 wurmcoils and an ballista. I drew an expedition map with 6 lands no tron on the battle field and got Academy Ruins played it and put map back on top. Finished up tron the next turn and played wurmcoil every turn till he died.
Side in: 1 EE, 2 Negate, 1 Spell Snare. Side Out: 3 Dismember, 1 Remand. I expected Death Shadows, Asylum Vistor and Delerium Skeins and had seen multiple collective brutality. Didn't see any wrench mind but I expected him to have it.
Game 2: He pregamed a leyline of the void. He basically tore my hand to shreds again, taking all of my counter magic and landed multiple smallpox in a row. I got to tron mana but he had a rack and shrieking affliction out and my life quickly fell to zero. I did manage to hardcast a wurm coil but he lotv -2 and then bontu's last reckoning me.. Did not expect that at all as we play 8 creatures but I guess that is all he saw game one.
Boarded out the last dismember and put in remand again. I did not need the creature removal as I didn't see any death shadows and can deal with asylum visitor easier. Also keep in mind against 8-rack you are always on the play as they want to go second.
Game 3: Looked a lot like game one, I did manage to mindslaver him once and legend ruled a lotv -2 on him sacking nothing. but I left him with nothing in hand and a lily on 1. I hit it with my wurmcoil. Then played another and the game was quickly over after that.
Round 2: Counters Company Won 2-1.
Game 1: Turn 1 I dismember the bird and we played some decent magic. I tapped out to turn 4 like a dummy to kill his two nobles and he coco'd into the combo. I didn't have counter magic but should have bluffed it. Always punished.
Side in: 1 surgical, 4 Spatial, 1 Negate. Side Out: 2 Dismember, 2 Remand, 2 Map. I didn't think I would need 8 creature removal spells. In hindsight I probably should have kept all the dismembers in but what can you do. The past is the past.
Game 2: I Managed to have natural tron, expedition map and a slaver in my hand. So I kinda just hoped that on turn 4 i could mind slaver him and still live. He scooped in response to the cast. I did dismember on turn 3 as well kill the duskwatch recruiter.
Game 3: This game was great. It was super back and forth with lots of counter spells and removal. I managed to a key mindslaver activation off and wreck his board with an Ewit, a Rhonas, 2 nobles, a duskwatch and 2 devoted druid. I pulsed the druids... this was dumb I could have just used their untap ability. but i attacked with the ewit into my wurmcoil to stablize. my wurmcoil died the next turn after chumping a double pumped duskwatch. His next turn he attacked with another kitchen finks, another Duskwatch (backside) and rhonas. a chumped with the lifelink token as the deathtouch one had gotten killed. This put me to 1 life. I had played the academy ruins the turn previous. Put it on top and then infite mindslavered him. He didn't scoop right away but I explained that I could either just mill him out or eventually combo off with his own cards and make an infinite size walking ballista and shoot himself.
Round 3: Storm Lost 1-2
Game 1: I had a super strong start on the play with turn 3 tron and a ballista. his turn 2 he played a gobbo and I killed it on my turn. the next turn i drew another ballista and had the 2nd tower, played it as a 4/4. drew a blue source kept up condescend and beat face with the ballistas.
Game 2: On turn his turn 3 I have mine + island. He goes ritual I let it resolve then he casts pyromancers ascension. He was trying to play around condescend and I called it, I spell snared it. Feelsgoodman. I control the board dismembering dudes and not letting him casts gifts. He mananged to do a mini empty the warrens and I draw EE off the top. I don't draw a threat 5 turns in a row after having a clear control of the game, he storms off then killing me.
Game 3: I keep something a little risky but it looked fine. Figured I'd draw more counterspells, never did. I hold up negate when he is storming off till he casts past in flames. Doesn't matter he manages to keep going and grape shots me for 20 something.
Round 4: Mardu Pyromancer Won 2-1? It was my roommate and he was 1-2 while i was 2-1 he conceded game 3.
Game 1: he managed to draw a hand disruption spell every turn I was about to play something game ending. It was a tight game and managed to get there. Really fun magic.
Side In: 3 Thought-Knot Seer, 1 EE, 1 Spell Snare. Side Out: 1 Dismember, 2 Map, 1 Remand, 1 Thirst. I was just trying new stuff with siding out a thirst. probably was wrong but it worked out.?
Game 2: i keep a kind of greedy hand with mine, island, condescend, 3 thirst and a repeal. Opp goes turn 1 thoughtseize take thirst.. okay? i go island pass. He extirpates my thirst... /cry. I managed to rip the third land and bounce a pyromancer. draw into tron. counter a bedlam revelar. Draw walking ballista. he kills it and then extirpates that.. Definitely a waste but he was getting tired and loopy. I draw mono counter spells and he draws mono hand distruption for a couple turns. He manages to squeek in a molten rain on my academy ruins. I have to basically draw wurmcoil or ugin as my wincon. I rip ugin and he scooped.
Game 3: As we finish game two he just says you got it and puts his hand out. I'll take it.
notes from the day.. spell snare felt great. I never got to cast thought-knot but I've played it before like a year ago and always liked it when I did cast it. The extra wurmcoils and ballistas felt awesome.
EDIT: I should have swapped out the wurmcoils for TKS vs storm as it costs less and has a bigger effect on the game and comes down earlier.
Question - when you have one tron piece and a map out do you fetch for another one at random or wait to draw the second before mapping for the third? I am assuming its always situational really but any thoughts here would be helpful. I have been burned both ways - fetch tower eot, untap draw tower. Dont fetch when I can and find myself squeezed on mana and miss land drops making me even more squeezed on mana.
I also wonder how often you pitch artifacts to tfk. When I look at my list im down to like 13 artifacts all of which are basically gas. Early on ill pitch slaver, wurmcoil or angel - late ill pitch a map or maybe a dead chalice but like even the maps I could have grabbed ruins or tolaria for balista to end game late rather than discard it.
I mostly find I pitch two cards - excess lands and dismember/repeals more often than not.
It definitely is situalational, but assuming its opp turn 2 and you have blue source + tronland. depending on the hand i normally just get a second but different tronland at eot if i didn't have to counter anything. Drawing the same piece sucks but it does happen. This also depends on the number lands already in my hand. If my hand is only blue cards i will fetch an island to have a better time playing out the game.
Thirst For Knowledge I also often find myself discarding two cards but we also play snapcaster mage so its not as big as a deal. It acting like a cantrip and just replacing itself + putting a card or two in the yard is powerful. Card selection is great and key to us finishing the game in our favor.
Are we high on trinket mage? I've definitely run it in the past, but it's never done what I want it to do- much better to leave up counter/thirst on t3 than to slam a 2/2 that has no immediate impact (aside from chalice on 0, I guess). And for taking your turn 3 basically off, you get... Chalice on 2? EE+crack on 2? Ballista on 2? Cards that can be very good, sure, but spending 2 turns at sorcery speed to drop them doesn't seem ideal to me. Treasure mage and gifts ungiven to me are late-game cards to fetch the right wincon, and while trinket mage can fetch ballista, I'd rather have another ballista instead 90% of the time. Am I playing it wrong? Missing something?
This basically how I felt about it. I also was playing 2 chalice and an EE in the main when i played trinket. I think it has its place but not currently. Like you said I'd rather just play another ballista or the card it would Tutor for. Getting Expedition Map off it was fun but it has no place in the current meta with decks like humans and affinity trying to race us. The card felt lack luster and super clunky.
I mean I use Sasaya, Orochi Ascendant and limited my total budget to $20. Faster turn they can flip is like turn 5 and turn 6 to use the mana. On average its like turn 9-10. So if they don't see it coming it is definitely their fault. Just casts big x spells, or things that make tons of tokens.
Thanks, I'd definitely appreciate any insights, especially explanations as to the card choices that differ from the shoktroopa versions. Some of these cards I've never played before.
EDIT: Some specific questions to help explain what I'm trying to learn. What is the role of TKS in the deck? When do you play a Ballista? Does Japanese U Tron try to get Tron quickly or does it just play control like the other version? I got out of playing it around Khan's block, so how does Ugin work in the deck? And what are the matchup differences, which I think has already been addressed a little bit.
TKS is a fairly new card to my sideboard but I can try my best. It comes it control mirrors, the opponent normally sides out creature removal but will keep in paths. TKS either lighting rods the path or takes it from their hand. TKS is also just good at taking acounter spell too. Its also great against cards with on cast triggers like Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger.
Ballista is an amazing addition to the deck, i'm playing three. He can be an early removal spell, which I do a lot. But is also an insane threat late in the game, which is our plan. I've cast him as a 10/10 before, even if the ballista can't attack that is a ton of burn.
I play this deck like a true control deck, sure I can have the turn 3 tron and a threat but its unlikely. Games are much more comfortable slinging counterspells and drawing cards until the opponent is drowning in your card advantage.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is a great card in the deck. I usually treat him as our third sweeper, Oblivion Stone and Cyclonic Rift being the other two. Him coming down and exile the opponents board is extremely strong. If you untap with ugin after sweeping he should take over the game with the free lightning bolt every turn. If you get to ultimate, the game is usually over.
And anubis a link to my decklist is in my deck section right below this post. There is also tons of decklists in the forum of people trying out fun new stuff.
EDIT: EE is something that once I picked up fell in love with I think it's crucial to the deck to deal with pesky 0 and 1 Mana permanents, basically an extra board wipe we can use turn a turn earlier than the others.
I love chalice of the void but I'm gonna try not playing it for a little and see how I do.
I've never used crucible but I could see you using it if your lgs has a lot of ponza or would want some extra value out of cards like gifts ungiven.
I also only play in paper hence none of my results online. /Edit.
When I look at this in theory the head scratchers are things like solemn simulacrum, talismans, and new karn because they dont fit cleanly into the plan of draw-go until you slam an expensive finisher. Thought knot out of the board I get - it lowers the curve, adds disruption, and punishes them for (correctly) boarding out removal. Im not sure id want them maindeck but out of the board seems very good.
Another deck I play is ub whir. Something I struggle a bit with tron here is finding what I need. The cantrips, scry, and thirsts all dig for things, and tolaria west can tutor a few (ditto treasure mage) but its nowhere near the scale of eot whir for lock piece. So we have one o stone and one ugin but no way to get them reliably when needed. This makes me wonder about singletons in general, but im too new to be sure about it either way - just seems odd to run one platinum angel, one chalice, one balista, and one wurmcoil without a really reliable way to get the one you want for the match (single treasure mage, single tolaria west, single gifts ungiven, etc)
This is why I went to playing multiples of the cards I want rather than tons of tutors and bullets. It feels much better than hoping you draw the card you want or a tutor for it.
You can do fairly well yes. I regularly go x-1 at my Modern night. As far as sundering Titan, I cut it a bit ago and haven't missed it too much. Ponza is rough. Affinity is actually favored for us, I haven't played too much humans but I would think it's in their favor but it's far from unwinnable. I'm playing a list more like bloody rabbit, who has been posting in here, it's full of removal just to play against the current metagame. There are a lot of great minds in the forum too, that should also try to get you convinced to play it again haha. The other big decks in the meta like mardu and jeskai are favorable as well. I haven't played against hollow one but it doesn't seem terrible for us. Burn is rough if you aren't playing chalices and is still uphill if you are. So you should totally buy in... But it's your money so I can't force you to do anything haha.
Most of the time the decks playing 23 lands are playing 2-3 talisman of X and the ones with 25 don't play any. but with more lands you also get 2 more utility lands or islands. the talismans you can ramp stuff out faster but need to have 2 lands first. I prefer 25 now but i used to be 24 and a talisman.
I've wanted to try it because durdle magic is my favorite kind of magic. I see it being good but hard to use as we don't have fetches and one mana cantrips to quickly fill our graveyard. The psuedo scry could be worth and no doubt the back side is nuts. I could see it being a fun sideboard card if control is super prevelant or lots of midrange. Kind of like how Jim Davis has 2 ancestral vision in his sideboard in jeskai. could be fun but I don't think it fits the style of the deck well.
Been reading for a bit now. I honestly don't think that tron is too overpowered. I play blue tron.. obviously not the tron people are talking(complaining) about but I have some matchups that are near the same. yes control and midrange are normally good matchups but there are always ways to beat it. If you deny mana on tron you still have to back it up. Its like playing control vs aggro. If you are mono sweepers and no threats, if your opp deck has reasonable card draw or good card quality they can come back. Magic metagames are a fine balance and I think modern is the healthiest its been in years.
Humans is a great deck, I don't want to be paired against it but what it does is fundamentally fair. Jeskai is the counter to Humans and other aggro decks, also what it is doing is fair. Gx tron, plays 16 cantrips, of course its going to do its thing most of the time, it was built to be a consistency monster. Jund and Mardu do their thing, Jund has a much better matchup vs tron than Mardu. Its faster and has better land disruption in fulminator rather than bloodmoon. Both have decent aggro match ups. Mardu is better vs control because it goes wide and has more hand disruption compared to jund. Every deck has matchups in mind when it was constructed, most of the time they just happen to overlap. Combo is also great right now. Storm is extremely consistent even through counter mage and hand disruption. but a fastclock and hand disruption will eat it up. Other combo like Ad Nauseum and Grishoalbrand imo are underplayed as they do fundementally broken things quickly (with the nut top 12 cards grishoalbrand can win on turn 0) Dredge is fast and hard to disrupt.
The cycle will always happen. if control is a big part of the metagame, big mana will come in and wreck it. If big mana is popular, aggro will come beat up on it. If aggro... Midrange. If midrange... Control.. so on and so forth. Combo just kinda does it thing on the side. but normally is an answer to big mana and aggro gets answered by hand disruption/counter magic. There is no deck that only is 50/50 and probably never will be. Someone will always try to hard counter your deck. Thats what I find great about Magic, modern especially.
P.S. I love playing against lantern (great matchup for me), its a dumb but good pile of jank cards. People just don't know when to concede.
I was playing one because i'm stubborn but have recently gone up to 2 in the main. I will go to the full 4 in the main when I can get a third wurmcoil engine. (should be soon, I sold some cards to cardkindom and should be able to buy the third wurmcoil and ballista with the store credit.) I still have one ee and chalice in the main and will probably devote them to the side. Still might keep the ee in the main in my local meta because there is a lot of affinity and lantern.
Awesome thanks thats all I really needed. Didn't mean to bunch the two cards together, they are obviously different. My list is most close to your list with mindslaver above. I guess i found jund good before because of sundering titan and maindeck chalice. I like your style of the deck(bloody) and have been migrating towards it as my budget / trades open up. I will defintely try out the main deck negates and try to pick up some spell snares then. I'm still loving 2 chalice (1 main, 1 side) but I can put them in my maybeboard if I end up loving all the negates and snares.
Went 3-1 last night and the changes I made to my list to basically look like bloody's felt really good.
4 Urza's Mine
4 Urza's Power Plant
4 Urza's Tower
6 Island
1 Tolaria West
2 Field of Ruin
1 Academy Ruins
3 River Of Tears
Creatures (8)
3 Walking Ballista
1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Treasure Mage
3 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
Spells (21)
4 Condescend
3 Repeal
2 Remand
4 Dismember
1 Negate
1 Cyclonic Rift
2 Supreme Will
4 Thirst For Knowledge
Artifacts(5)
3 Expedition Map
1 Oblivion Stone
1 Mindslaver
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Surgical Extraction
3 Spell Snare
2 Negate
4 Spatial Contortion
3 Thought-Knot Seer
Round 1: 8-Rack won 2-1
Game 1: He tore my hand apart the first couple turns but I kept making land drops while keeping his damage dealers off the battlefield. He took 2 wurmcoils and an ballista. I drew an expedition map with 6 lands no tron on the battle field and got Academy Ruins played it and put map back on top. Finished up tron the next turn and played wurmcoil every turn till he died.
Side in: 1 EE, 2 Negate, 1 Spell Snare. Side Out: 3 Dismember, 1 Remand. I expected Death Shadows, Asylum Vistor and Delerium Skeins and had seen multiple collective brutality. Didn't see any wrench mind but I expected him to have it.
Game 2: He pregamed a leyline of the void. He basically tore my hand to shreds again, taking all of my counter magic and landed multiple smallpox in a row. I got to tron mana but he had a rack and shrieking affliction out and my life quickly fell to zero. I did manage to hardcast a wurm coil but he lotv -2 and then bontu's last reckoning me.. Did not expect that at all as we play 8 creatures but I guess that is all he saw game one.
Boarded out the last dismember and put in remand again. I did not need the creature removal as I didn't see any death shadows and can deal with asylum visitor easier. Also keep in mind against 8-rack you are always on the play as they want to go second.
Game 3: Looked a lot like game one, I did manage to mindslaver him once and legend ruled a lotv -2 on him sacking nothing. but I left him with nothing in hand and a lily on 1. I hit it with my wurmcoil. Then played another and the game was quickly over after that.
Round 2: Counters Company Won 2-1.
Game 1: Turn 1 I dismember the bird and we played some decent magic. I tapped out to turn 4 like a dummy to kill his two nobles and he coco'd into the combo. I didn't have counter magic but should have bluffed it. Always punished.
Side in: 1 surgical, 4 Spatial, 1 Negate. Side Out: 2 Dismember, 2 Remand, 2 Map. I didn't think I would need 8 creature removal spells. In hindsight I probably should have kept all the dismembers in but what can you do. The past is the past.
Game 2: I Managed to have natural tron, expedition map and a slaver in my hand. So I kinda just hoped that on turn 4 i could mind slaver him and still live. He scooped in response to the cast. I did dismember on turn 3 as well kill the duskwatch recruiter.
Game 3: This game was great. It was super back and forth with lots of counter spells and removal. I managed to a key mindslaver activation off and wreck his board with an Ewit, a Rhonas, 2 nobles, a duskwatch and 2 devoted druid. I pulsed the druids... this was dumb I could have just used their untap ability. but i attacked with the ewit into my wurmcoil to stablize. my wurmcoil died the next turn after chumping a double pumped duskwatch. His next turn he attacked with another kitchen finks, another Duskwatch (backside) and rhonas. a chumped with the lifelink token as the deathtouch one had gotten killed. This put me to 1 life. I had played the academy ruins the turn previous. Put it on top and then infite mindslavered him. He didn't scoop right away but I explained that I could either just mill him out or eventually combo off with his own cards and make an infinite size walking ballista and shoot himself.
Round 3: Storm Lost 1-2
Game 1: I had a super strong start on the play with turn 3 tron and a ballista. his turn 2 he played a gobbo and I killed it on my turn. the next turn i drew another ballista and had the 2nd tower, played it as a 4/4. drew a blue source kept up condescend and beat face with the ballistas.
Side in: 3 Spell Snare, 2 Negate, 2 Surgical, 1 EE. Side Out: 2 Remand, 3 Map, 1 Dismember, 1 Ugin, 1 Thirst.
Game 2: On turn his turn 3 I have mine + island. He goes ritual I let it resolve then he casts pyromancers ascension. He was trying to play around condescend and I called it, I spell snared it. Feelsgoodman. I control the board dismembering dudes and not letting him casts gifts. He mananged to do a mini empty the warrens and I draw EE off the top. I don't draw a threat 5 turns in a row after having a clear control of the game, he storms off then killing me.
Game 3: I keep something a little risky but it looked fine. Figured I'd draw more counterspells, never did. I hold up negate when he is storming off till he casts past in flames. Doesn't matter he manages to keep going and grape shots me for 20 something.
Round 4: Mardu Pyromancer Won 2-1? It was my roommate and he was 1-2 while i was 2-1 he conceded game 3.
Game 1: he managed to draw a hand disruption spell every turn I was about to play something game ending. It was a tight game and managed to get there. Really fun magic.
Side In: 3 Thought-Knot Seer, 1 EE, 1 Spell Snare. Side Out: 1 Dismember, 2 Map, 1 Remand, 1 Thirst. I was just trying new stuff with siding out a thirst. probably was wrong but it worked out.?
Game 2: i keep a kind of greedy hand with mine, island, condescend, 3 thirst and a repeal. Opp goes turn 1 thoughtseize take thirst.. okay? i go island pass. He extirpates my thirst... /cry. I managed to rip the third land and bounce a pyromancer. draw into tron. counter a bedlam revelar. Draw walking ballista. he kills it and then extirpates that.. Definitely a waste but he was getting tired and loopy. I draw mono counter spells and he draws mono hand distruption for a couple turns. He manages to squeek in a molten rain on my academy ruins. I have to basically draw wurmcoil or ugin as my wincon. I rip ugin and he scooped.
Game 3: As we finish game two he just says you got it and puts his hand out. I'll take it.
notes from the day.. spell snare felt great. I never got to cast thought-knot but I've played it before like a year ago and always liked it when I did cast it. The extra wurmcoils and ballistas felt awesome.
EDIT: I should have swapped out the wurmcoils for TKS vs storm as it costs less and has a bigger effect on the game and comes down earlier.
It definitely is situalational, but assuming its opp turn 2 and you have blue source + tronland. depending on the hand i normally just get a second but different tronland at eot if i didn't have to counter anything. Drawing the same piece sucks but it does happen. This also depends on the number lands already in my hand. If my hand is only blue cards i will fetch an island to have a better time playing out the game.
Thirst For Knowledge I also often find myself discarding two cards but we also play snapcaster mage so its not as big as a deal. It acting like a cantrip and just replacing itself + putting a card or two in the yard is powerful. Card selection is great and key to us finishing the game in our favor.
This basically how I felt about it. I also was playing 2 chalice and an EE in the main when i played trinket. I think it has its place but not currently. Like you said I'd rather just play another ballista or the card it would Tutor for. Getting Expedition Map off it was fun but it has no place in the current meta with decks like humans and affinity trying to race us. The card felt lack luster and super clunky.
TKS is a fairly new card to my sideboard but I can try my best. It comes it control mirrors, the opponent normally sides out creature removal but will keep in paths. TKS either lighting rods the path or takes it from their hand. TKS is also just good at taking acounter spell too. Its also great against cards with on cast triggers like Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger.
Ballista is an amazing addition to the deck, i'm playing three. He can be an early removal spell, which I do a lot. But is also an insane threat late in the game, which is our plan. I've cast him as a 10/10 before, even if the ballista can't attack that is a ton of burn.
I play this deck like a true control deck, sure I can have the turn 3 tron and a threat but its unlikely. Games are much more comfortable slinging counterspells and drawing cards until the opponent is drowning in your card advantage.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is a great card in the deck. I usually treat him as our third sweeper, Oblivion Stone and Cyclonic Rift being the other two. Him coming down and exile the opponents board is extremely strong. If you untap with ugin after sweeping he should take over the game with the free lightning bolt every turn. If you get to ultimate, the game is usually over.
And anubis a link to my decklist is in my deck section right below this post. There is also tons of decklists in the forum of people trying out fun new stuff.
EDIT: EE is something that once I picked up fell in love with I think it's crucial to the deck to deal with pesky 0 and 1 Mana permanents, basically an extra board wipe we can use turn a turn earlier than the others.
I love chalice of the void but I'm gonna try not playing it for a little and see how I do.
I've never used crucible but I could see you using it if your lgs has a lot of ponza or would want some extra value out of cards like gifts ungiven.
I also only play in paper hence none of my results online. /Edit.
This is why I went to playing multiples of the cards I want rather than tons of tutors and bullets. It feels much better than hoping you draw the card you want or a tutor for it.
Humans is a great deck, I don't want to be paired against it but what it does is fundamentally fair. Jeskai is the counter to Humans and other aggro decks, also what it is doing is fair. Gx tron, plays 16 cantrips, of course its going to do its thing most of the time, it was built to be a consistency monster. Jund and Mardu do their thing, Jund has a much better matchup vs tron than Mardu. Its faster and has better land disruption in fulminator rather than bloodmoon. Both have decent aggro match ups. Mardu is better vs control because it goes wide and has more hand disruption compared to jund. Every deck has matchups in mind when it was constructed, most of the time they just happen to overlap. Combo is also great right now. Storm is extremely consistent even through counter mage and hand disruption. but a fastclock and hand disruption will eat it up. Other combo like Ad Nauseum and Grishoalbrand imo are underplayed as they do fundementally broken things quickly (with the nut top 12 cards grishoalbrand can win on turn 0) Dredge is fast and hard to disrupt.
The cycle will always happen. if control is a big part of the metagame, big mana will come in and wreck it. If big mana is popular, aggro will come beat up on it. If aggro... Midrange. If midrange... Control.. so on and so forth. Combo just kinda does it thing on the side. but normally is an answer to big mana and aggro gets answered by hand disruption/counter magic. There is no deck that only is 50/50 and probably never will be. Someone will always try to hard counter your deck. Thats what I find great about Magic, modern especially.
P.S. I love playing against lantern (great matchup for me), its a dumb but good pile of jank cards. People just don't know when to concede.