so I feel like wildfire is probably town, since I'm having a hard time with the standard metric of "town could never do this" when looking at his posts. That is to say that I can see his thought process behind his posts and while it is bad or wrong almost invariably I don't see it as scum.
What is this in response to? Or are you just blathering?
Counterquestion. Why in the world did you ask this question? Especially to the point of characterizing it as 'blathering'?
Because I see absolutely nothing wrong with Megiddo's post above, and see absolutely no reason for you to have thrown this response out to it.
Wildfire kind of messed us up but can you explain the thought processes behind his posts? I'm still not getting it.
I'm fine with lynching LnG and having a vig shoot Wildfire. I think a scumteam that includes the two of them is a lock. I'm also fine with more votes on LnG because of [REDACTED] which will pan out sooner or later.
I personally think that EtR and Seppel should be watched closely. EtR I feel has been mostly ignored by the playerbase at a whole, and Seppel is giving me bad vibes w/r/t playing the game.
...not a fan of that [redacted]. I also find both of those points you raise rather feeble - the former is glorified lurker-hunting, and the latter point is just nonsense. I remember Seppel playing the game quite actively in Survival Horror, as town.
I think the LnG wagon is crap, the Wildfire wagon is even worse, and the AI wagon is scumDCIII and 3 empty votes.
Ugh.
...run that by me again? I saw your justification for suddenly reversing on LnGrrrR, but when did you suddenly obtain a scumread on DCIII?
Although speaking of DCIII...
@Anyone who's played with DCIII: Is it his normal methodology to extrapolate scum motivation from a number of small points? He just did this in the endgame of CT3, and I'd like to know how usual this is for him.
I'm also not fond of the aggrieved tone he's taking in response to Megiddo at the current time, for related reasons.
In other news, Sir Chris looks a lot better now. His recent posts are far more inquisitive and incisive than his early hyper-defensive tone.
One more thing...
@Iso: ...wait, when did I suddenly become the expert on you? Because I don't recall in the least where I supposedly started reading you correctly all the time. If I read anyone mostly accurately, it's Cyan, not you.
I will admit to being particularly bent out of shape by Nacho this game.
And yes, Thor, that's the keyword - this game. I was impressed by you in the first two games, and Nacho in the first. Here? Not so much. And Zen's showing was particularly poor, I feel, especially where he didn't even bother to show up to claim.
I don't even care what happens in this game, I will forever take glee at the fact that *every single one* of the high and mightly players from MS were so incorrectly sure that Azrael was scum that they stopped him from correctly getting lynched Day 1.
On topic, this game continues to make no sense to me.
Echoed, except that instead of 'taking glee' replace 'smack face into palm liberally'.
Seriously, the only MS player I felt was legitimately good this game was LanguidJaguar.
Had a lot of fun, Cyan's distancing was incredible, the town replacements felt really hard to deal with as we were counting on some more predicable votes and more friendly votes, I hope I didn't drive DC too crazy, and mad props to everyone who stuck with us through all the replacements to finish out the game. It's been a pleasure, and I look forward to future cross-town games on MS, hopefully where I get to play town for a change.
The vast majority of my frustration goes entirely to all of those players who were town-reading you for blatant mimicry of emotion.
With one exception. I feel the personal digs were beneath you. Now, in the abstract, I know exactly what you were doing - playing up to the [expletive self-redacted] MS townie meta, which is apparently being an overemotional [expletive self-redacted], but that didn't make it much less annoying. I did have to check myself several times from going into a real tirade, and I won't hesitate to say that if you ever do it again in a game with me and I have a killing role, I will take that as an auto scum-tell and kill you sight unseen.
But yes. Other than that, every iota of my annoyance with this game goes instead to everyone who blocked your lynch, multiple times.
Well, I did read the game... but, yeah, I pretty much replaced into an ideal situation as no one had Az and Cyan together. The decision was just whether or not to bus Az and thought it better just to try to win today. You'd probably always think I'm scum, though, Kami as that's how I play as town, too.
Cyan and Az as co MVPs? impressive that Az staved off a lynch with literally every MTGS played voting him at one point, including both teammates.
In actual fact, I did have Azrael and Cyan as scum together - specifically for two reasons. The first is ancient history - I still remember Cyan, as scum, conspiring in-thread with a town player to kill one of his own teammates on early day 1, so I would never have cleared Cyan for his position on Azrael anyway. The second, and the real reason, was that post where he was giving tips to Azrael about securing his internet connection on his cruise. That didn't sound at all like something a Cyan actually wanting Azrael dead would say - instead, it sounded very much like 'please be on if a quicklynch opportunity shows up'.
I didn't say anything, however, because that was predicated on Azrael being scum, and I figured if I said anything he'd just NK me and then everyone else would clear him based on Azrael flipping scum. Meh.
If any scum slot had me fooled, it was the Taredas slot, i.e. yours. I had him read as fairly town the whole while. The point at which I started to be suspicious of your slot was only in the same post where you declare Kami and Cyan as scum, because while convincing on the surface, it was prone to all the same logical discrepancies that Azrael was guilty of all game - thus the questions I aimed at you. Of course, that was far too little, far too late.
-------------
On balance, though, well played to the mafia. Cyan and Taredas played more than well enough, and while I don't think Azrael played particularly well, he definitely managed to manipulate the MS side masterfully.
Still, I'm highly unsure if I actually want to participate in the MS side of this series, given that, if I was going by this game alone, LanguidJaguar is literally the only MS player I'd want on my team.
@DC, I don't agree with Chris's case on Cythare, but I think Megiddo's "Cythare has been clamming up after being called out" is being borne out.
Re: I don't recall Karn having an awesome scum game. So town!Karn is a bigger asset than scum!Karn is a liability.
By the time Niv actually catches up, it's going to be Day 2.
Re:Karn: ...that's a horrible reason to give someone a pass. It doesn't matter how much 'better' at being town than scum someone is in the abstract. This isn't a statistics exercise - if you don't think Karn's play to that point had been 'particularly townie', then it shouldn't matter if he's a lousier scum 77% of the time or whatever. Heck, if he's a lousier scum, then all the more reason to pressure him early and shake something loose - going by what you say, a town Karn should be able to deal with said pressure far better than a scum Karn, hmm?
Your whole attitude with regards to Karn stinks, just like Karn's entire game to this point stinks.
desCoures: To answer your question to me directly, I find problem with it because it's busywork. It's useful busywork, but busywork nonetheless. However, Arian has contributed plenty of actual analysis posts and that outweighs the one strike against him. Why are you hammering on this point so much when I do not actually have a scumread on him? (to be fair I may not have articulated my stance until recently. HOWEVER, this is a relatively minor point, so I'm curious as to why you're giving it so much weight).
Because it read like an attempt to discredit him. I know you should be familiar with the tactic of keeping a window of doubt open on townish players, and that's exactly what you and someone else (Sir Chris, I think) were doing.
And while your explanation is decent, I'm not sure I like your attempt to denigrate it as a 'minor point'.
Ok, good, so you're aware about the role randomization. That was the only variable. I assumed you knew but after checking your posts there was no explicit evidence, so I had to tease it out of you like that.
I think a mass claim this early would be a mistake.
The best we'll be able to get out of it is we get some people who come forward and claim that they have abilities that are good in the Mirrored Domain.
Okay, so we probably just outed our Doc and Watcher types to the scum? Sure, the Doc will be safe as long as we stay there, but we have to move to Ruchperion at some point if we're going to have it as a fallback world for the long game.
So let's look at this.
First, I'm not disagreeing with the point of the post. If you read my posts I clearly think a massclaim is bad, and I'm not sure why your most recent post here seems to imply that I want one.
So, level one of this post is that you can't assume that the town has doc or watcher types. We don't know that those roles exist in this game or in what form. There's no guarantee that the town has anything like that (well, I suspect there is, but we'll wait until postgame for that). By demonstrating that you are aware of the random roles we can rule out ignorance.
But level two, and the real reason I call this a scum post, is that a town player's version of this post would say that we don't want to give the scum more info or that we need to protect our strong roles. Specifically calling out the doc/watcher raises my hackles for two reasons. First, it feels as though you are trying to pretend to have town concerns in line. Like, a scum trying to make this argument wants to appear convincing, so he needs to appeal to emotion and logic. By both metrics we want to protect our doc/watcher roles. It makes sense to call both out to get us thinking that way. A townie with knowledge of role randomization doesn't put the thought into actually mentioning a specific role. There's no need to mention it. Second... you're actually subtly providing evidence FOR a massclaim here by saying that the doc will be safe. In fact, by lumping Watcher in the post you're subtly calling out the doc/watcher combo, which would be completely unbeatable on Ruchperion (as the watcher knows that he's being protected every Night and the Doc can't ever be shot).
So, to summarize, you put just too much thought into making your argument appeal to townies, and I think the reason you did that is because you're scum and fabricating your viewpoints.
Mmh. The first bit is a valid point - someone aware of the role randomization should be less likely to single out doc/watcher roles, given that there's no guarantee they're town, if they're even present.
I was thinking the second bit was a bit of a stretch, given that the point above about role randomization applies just as much to scum as to town. but I think I see where you're coming from with that. Mm.
----------------
Unvote
There's a bunch of people I need to take a closer look at, LnGrrrR, Karn, and Wildfire among them. I also remember having issues with AI and Sir Chris.
Also, I think I noted on skim that there needs to be some distinction between acronyms used for me and DCIII. I had hansanator's post quoted to ask when the heck we ever played a game together until I realized who he was talking about.
That last, particularly, is such an utter obvious lie that anyone paying attention would realize it to be untrue. The people that have been replaced are Taredas, ced, and mastin. The first was on record as being firmly against you and firmly for me as town, and would be voting you as long as he wasn't one of your team white knighting me. The second was 'unsure' about you, but would probably have been right on you after Nacho flipped town, and in any case never made the slightest indication he'd vote me. The only one that description might fit would have been mastin, and that doesn't change the fact that the replacement situation more than likely removed two players that would have been voting you, not me. And if you're scummy enough for their replacements to instantly spot... well, that's very much your own fault.
Ced's final post of the day stated that he was changing his mind about me, and Mastin both read me as town and you as scum. I can't find the other post I was thinking of, so maybe it came from someone else.
You keep trying to argue I'm not paying attention to the game, but fail to even look up the posts in question. Meanwhile, you're also doing your best to be a hypocrite (you never did cite those posts where I supposedly called Nacho obvtown days 1-2 - I wonder why not?). But I guess it's definitely more fun to just scream and call people liars than to fight with honor or maybe, I don't know, rely on actual evidence?
I'm seriously alarmed at your shade, Mr. Pot.
I mean, seriously. That entire first line? It doesn't change a damned thing about what I said - that Taredas was firmly set on me-town and you-scum, and that ced, while 'unsure' about you day 2, still never indicated he would vote me; therefore that snide dig about the replacement situation 'having been kind to me' is, as I said, utter rot. And that last bolded bit is especially rich, given the accusation that you level at me the very next line about 'failing to look up the posts in question'.
And also, seriously, what is this, a 10-year old screaming competition? The irony is palpable in accusing me of 'screaming and calling people liars' while saying I'm 'not fighting with honour'. I'd roll my eyes, but this doesn't even deserve that much energy.
------------------
As to recent events... that reaction from KoL is all kinds of ick. It's OMGUS at LyLo with extra histronics on the side. I can very easily see KoL as scum now, especially given how this -
Thanks for asking how I caught you. I'll be happy to oblige.
Cyan is your backup lynch, in case mine fails to go through.
A real townie will hunt townies and scums. When a real townie has a solid town read on another player, they become allies in a hostile environment. A real townie hangs to their town reads. A real townie is often more certain of their town reads than they are their scum reads.
You didn't hunt townies. You waltzed in, made cases against two players, one of whom is a townie, and the other a town read of mine. I don't see you trying to find your townie colleagues in the fog. Therefore you are scum, something you already know, but I'm trying to convince others.
- is blatant rubbish. At best, it's a particular methodology; and it's definitely not one to which I subscribe. I'm always looking for scum, partially because it's all too easy to get caught up in an early town read and never change your mind even when you really should. (At least if you're wrong with a scum read, you'll find that out sooner rather than later.) At worst, it's a total misrepresentation.
The thing is, though, DCIII... I've read through your case, and it's fairly convincing. The part I'm having trouble wrapping my head around is that it's predicated on Azrael being town.
Of the points you raise, I can in fact see the first two paragraphs as a half-hearted attempt to help blunt the momentum on a scumbuddy. The third paragraph, though, I'll agree does appear to point towards Az=town if KoL=scum.
...mm.
A few questions, DCIII.
1. If Kami and Cyan are scum, and Azrael is town, then why has Kami been persisting in hard-reading Azrael as town today, in the face of large amounts of opposition? (Or, alternatively, why has Cyan been just as adamantly for me=town, Azrael=scum today?) Given that a mislynch today probably means we lose, why would they (and whoever their last member is) not take a more unified stance today, whether on me or Azrael?
2. What do you think of Azrael's comments on KoL today, anyway? He's been hard-reading her as town for much of today as well. And while I do like the first part of #1312 and #1323 taking the null hypothesis that KoL is scum, #1314 reads like an attempt to say 'she'd have to be really really good scum to do that'.
3. Your case appears to be predicated entirely on day 1? Have you read day 2?
As for Cyan... you do make a few good points there. I think I have to look over Cyan again. It would fit my supposition that one of the people firmly on my side was scum white-knighting me. Mmh.
No, no, no, no - this is exactly what I just said that Cyan did to Thor, she's just trying to scream and make it stick. Kami is scum and flailing. Mull it over if you need to but DO NOT put another vote on me or we will lose.
Kami/Cyan/Rhand
Az, LJ, and dC - read my case and give me your thoughts.
@DC, it's not only that he got defensive. It's the way he went about defending himself. He tried to explain what he meant, clarifying his thought processes, in a very calm and rational way.
Calm and rational? I'm not sure I got that impression the first time round.
What did you think about his stated reasons for calling out Cythare, anyway? (If you said it before, list the post number, please.)
Wildfire is probably town. Too many questionable people were piled on him at one point. Won't be sure until I untangle abovementioned cluster a bit, though.
Please list the questionable people as you see it right now.
Sir Chris and Karn, off the top of my head. The latter for simply jumping on with zero input, just as the wagon was gaining traction.
@dC: Yeah, I think him making a post like that is a scumtell. However, I don't think the post was wrong, and he convinced me that going to Ruchperion makes sense. You agreed yourself, right? But yeah, I find it unlikely that his post is laying out some scum plan or anything. Put another way, I have no problem with the content of the post, but the fact that he made it at all raised my eyebrow.
...I still don't get this. Yes, I agreed with the plan, and you agreed with the plan, because it made sense. In that case why in the world does someone doing the research and laying out a plan that makes perfect sense make you raise your eyebrow?
I've been on the verge of a lynch for three days now. The sense of urgency from having two votes on me has kind of passed at this point. Either the game probably ends with my lynch, or it goes on with a lynch on you, in which case I don't expect to need to worry much about being killed off by teammates any more. I've survived the worst you can throw at me this far, and though the replacement situation has been very kind to you, eliminating two of the votes that would have been against you today and adding two votes against me, I still don't think you're going to manage to pull this off.
That's a pack of utter lies, and one that doesn't answer anything at all about how you seem perfectly content to do absolutely nothing but stand there and hide behind your false bravado and baseless attacks at me, despite this being virtual LyLo.
That last, particularly, is such an utter obvious lie that anyone paying attention would realize it to be untrue. The people that have been replaced are Taredas, ced, and mastin. The first was on record as being firmly against you and firmly for me as town, and would be voting you as long as he wasn't one of your team white knighting me. The second was 'unsure' about you, but would probably have been right on you after Nacho flipped town, and in any case never made the slightest indication he'd vote me. The only one that description might fit would have been mastin, and that doesn't change the fact that the replacement situation more than likely removed two players that would have been voting you, not me. And if you're scummy enough for their replacements to instantly spot... well, that's very much your own fault.
There is no way that any townie can sincerely think that DBG is scum. Just none. We're in probable lynch or lose and DBG tried to give you an olive branch earlier today, Thor. What scum would EVER do that after fighting with you all game? Nevermind various other town mindset tells on DBG's part.
If anything, I would say that YOU, Thor, are acting how I would expect a scum today to act toward someone they have been antagonizing all game long. Since A)you guys still can't be convinced to vote Azrael and B)Thor is highly likely scum anyway if Azrael is, I'm willing to try this instead. Unvote, Vote Thor
....siiigh.
Cyan, how much of your scum read of Thor is dependent on Az-scum?
Also,
@Thor
Between a deadline no-lynch and lynching Azrael, which would you prefer?
Right. I don't actually have an awful lot of time today, especially with pre-release weekend coming up, and from my skim of recent developments there's this huge mess between a whole bunch of players that it'll take time to digest and untangle. (Specifically, there's this whole AI/Cythare/Sir Chris/Megiddo cluster I'll need to slowly parse.) I'm just going to address some quick points today and leave the mass-quoting to probably after the WC final.
@LnGrrrR: Let me get this straight. You think Sir Chris getting defensive after 2-3 votes is a town tell?
@Sir Chris: I don't think I'm quite convinced by some of your responses yet, but you did make a good point re: Megiddo. To whit..
@Megiddo: I somehow missed that the first time round, but you did actually say that Arianrhod posting about going to Ruchperion - a post which you appear to have been totally convinced by - is a scum tell for him, and appeared to be encouraging Sir Chris with that? Explain to me how that works, please.
Wildfire is probably town. Too many questionable people were piled on him at one point. Won't be sure until I untangle abovementioned cluster a bit, though.
I can't quite decide what to do with either you, or him. If I'm wrong about either of you, then I'll need to revisit Cyan, maybe even a certain one or two of the other players on my town-clear list. That prospect makes my brain hurt, so I'd rather take it one day at a time for now and hopefully avoid the necessity of another research project until I actually know if I'll be around tomorrow to vote in support of it.
I was going to call this a total scumslip, because if Azrael is somehow town, and we lynch him, we lose and there isn't a tomorrow. But Azrael provides alternate reasoning in his next post.
The two votes aren't so much my concern, I think there's a good chance it becomes very evident that I'm town by the end of the day and I won't live to see another sunrise. I could do a big research project in preparation for that, but 99 times out of hundred, the surviving players just blow those off and do their own thing.
...so his stated reason is that he thinks he'll be obvtown and NKed at the end of today. (Uh huh. Riiight.)
The absurdity of that above aside, I still can't see this as coming from a town mindset. For one thing, the two votes are apparently 'not so much his concern'... after having poked at Rhand earlier about 'two votes being enough for a speedlynch'. Right. And also, for a town player at virtual LyLo, I would think that having two votes on said town player would absolutely be more of a concern than just about anything else, given that a mislynch on him would end the game.
I'm not feeling that urgency from him, and that whole spiel about 'if I'm wrong on any of you, I'll have to revisit...' sounds incredibly insincere given that him being wrong about any of us and mislynching us similarly ends the game. It's a horrible excuse, and frankly I would have accepted 'I'm on a cruise and can't give a fluttering fornication' more than this nonsense.
--------
The problem is that right now we seem to be at an impasse. Cyan, Rhand, and I think Azrael is scum, as well as LanguidJaguar, apparently. But Kami is apparently 100% unwilling to lynch Azrael (or, now that I think about it, even comment on most of the points raised against him), and Thor says he 'doesn't support the Azrael wagon'. kpaca's slot is still MIA.
And I still can't say I'm willing to lynch anyone but Azrael today. I wouldn't stake the game on anyone else being scum, in any case.
One more thing...
@Thor: What in blazes did you mean by 'declare a race between Cyan and Jaguar'?
I didn't accuse of you stymieing conversation, but merely posting without any real intent. To me it is fairly easy to be against something in the early going in a mafia game. It isn't hard as scum to simply say "no, I disagree." What I look for in town play is not the disagreement, but the birth of new ideas and new direction. Creation is often something I give credit to town more than scum, simply because scum faking creating puts a burden on them. It isn't a 100% ratio either way, but I like to see it. I didn't see it in your post, and so I didn't like it. The roleblock thing may just be me misunderstanding how it would work against how I see roleblocks normally work, along with the way vitality works in the game. When I think of someone roleblocking themselves I think of their own roleblock failing, but maybe that's not how it'd jive here.
...uh huh. Here, your stated reason for singling out Cythare was him 'posting without any real intent', presumably meaning posting only about the mechanics of the Worlds and nothing else... which was what pretty much 80% of everyone posting at that point was doing.
But no, apparently you also did so because he disagreed with the Alway Eteem move, and it's apparently 'easy to disagree' early on. Then why not Killjoy, who just quietly threw up a counterproposal with no particular reason to it?
Okay, then... 'not presenting new ideas and new direction'. Then why say nothing about Megiddo, who very quite literally offers no opinion, no committal, and no direction?
This whole explanation for why you mentioned Cythare stinks. I don't see any real reason for you to have singled out Cythare in particular on page 2.
Cythare I think has made a bad logical assumption. He thinks I thought he was scummy. No, I thought he made a post was a post scum could make and so I decided to investigate it. Please don't mistake me: When I think someone is being outright scummy I won't hold my vote and I know how to use the word scummy. But if you are town I need to see things that tell me you are town so I don't go after you. I try my best to use specific words to suti specific situations, and not being a fan of a post means I think it is a bad post. Bad doesn't always mean scum. Thinking about it you've gone two things I generally like since that post in a) giving me the information I wanted right after (which I pointed out) and b) people have voted you for no good reason. Okay you didn't do the second one but yeah.
I am probably a bad person for seeing Arianrhod's huge post about the worlds and thinking to myself "This is such a scum post." I admit this is unfair of me to say, but it was such obvious overkill. So many words that could have been better spent discussing players after a certain point. Overwhelming posts tend to worry me. Mind you they only worry me from very skilled players, and I don't know if Arianrhod has that reputation or not.
One game here and I have been playing mafia consistently since 2003, to answer a question.
Yes. Yes you are a bad person for that, because I don't see any reason for mafia to go to that kind of effort early on day 1 and actually post it in-thread. I've also run the math and see no fault in his reasoning as far as I can see.
In fact, I really don't see any way someone can sincerely try to paint that post as coming from scum. Except, of course, for scum trying to discredit someone who just came off as strongly town.
Also I forget who said it (and I am pressed for time) but the people who brought up mass claiming are more town to me than scum because that's a pretty random thought for scum to have.
Really. Those in favour of a massclaim, in a game with random role assignments, in a Specialty-level game, are more town to you than scum.
Try pulling the other one. It's not only got bells on, it turns on the lights and the stereo, too.
I like Sir Chris's defense of himself. Part of that is because I think the whole "town are care and fancy free!" thing is BS. Town points for Sir Chris.
Wait, what? Explain.
-------------
I need to look at just who suggested massclaiming in the first place, as well as look over Wildfire again. I didn't see anything particularly wrong with him on the first skim of these 8 pages, though.
...pretty stoned from watching that caricature of a match, and have a new game to look at. Between those and pre-release weekend, don't expect too much from me for the rest of this week.
That being said... Jaguar, why do you have a total null read of me again? Regardless of what I thought of it, a good number of the player base seemed to have had me down as either obvtown or obvscum by the end of day 1. Did really nothing stand out to you at all?
Also...
@Mod: When is the deadline right now? Or is it still suspended thanks to continuing replacement?
I'm seriously getting tired of this game. More tired.
Azrael's posts are now beginning to be this continuous refrain of attempts to discredit me. Blatantly contrived voting rationales, my foot. It was plain as day yesterday that Nacho and I couldn't have been scum together, and yet that's the conclusion he somehow arrived at based on reasons far weaker than those that ced and I were pushing him for.
Why would you take the opposite conclusion for the first 2/3 of the PBPA, Azrael? I don't know, maybe because you'd spent the entirety of day 1 and most of day 2 declaring Nacho obvtown?
Kami as Azrael's buddy looks increasingly likely. Her voting pattern today (and especially in this weekend's posts) seems pretty much 'anything but Azrael'.
I didn't see the value in a massclaim either, but people started popcorn claiming on their own accord, so eh.
As for why Azrael is scum... just read the thread. You can look at my posts, at Azrael's posts. I've gone on at length about it over pretty much the whole thread.
I'm supporting no lynch because mathematics. But more seriously, it's because I'm still very unclear as to who the other mafia would be.
When reading the game the first time, the whole Thor / Kami thing was very weird: it seemed they like each other from previous experiences, and yet their conversation became extremely sharp. Reading it again assuming it's all a play to make them look town vs town or at least unaligned, it all makes a lot more sense.
If this is true and they are buddies, then Az is the most logical third. Just look at the votecounts for when Az's first vote on Thor landed and vice versa.
That's odd, because the impression I've gotten from the two previous CT games is that they don't like each other at all. It could be playacting in this game, or using genuine animosity to hide being on the same team, I'll grant, but I'm still having trouble seeing them on the same scum team.
About Mastin: I don't like how he came in all apologetic, but that's not a tell for everyone and I don't know his meta. Apart from that, he looks to be genuinly trying to figure out the game.
I don't like how you're trying to get me to reconsider the only obvtown we have.
If you really do think we should be counting him among the possible scum, then why aren't we no lynching?
Maybe because he's not obvtown to me, which I've stated before earlier this game day.
Specifically, with Nacho flipping town, I didn't like his 'I totally agree with Nacho on everything and, oh darn, I hope he's not scum' from day 1, and heck, said as much on day 1, but didn't pursue it because I was sure Nacho was scum and it made no sense for scum to attach themselves to other scum that way. I also remember him being fairly anonymous day 2, and not particularly fighting the Nacho lynch.
As for no lynching... you have noticed that I'm probably the only other player who supported Thor's call for no lynch today, right? And that I'm still not yet voting, because I don't want to place a vote until we're absolutely sure we're lynching instead of no-lynching?
The weirdest of all things: I don't understand why no one is pressuring me. It's like everyone is avoiding to step on my toes.
And where is Kpaca?
I can't speak for anyone else, but while I was suspicious of ced's day 2, your posts since you replaced in make it highly unlikely to me that you're scum with Azrael, who is my only 100% scum read.
That being said, you have noticed me trying to figure out how you arrived at the reads you've been presenting, right?
Good to see Thor here. I'll watch my smurfing language.
Good to see DGB here. I'll leave logic and common sense at the door.
Don't know any of the MTG people, so.
Someone short-form the current goings-ons for me.
We're most probably at virtual LyLo.
Thor proposed a no-lynch and massclaim. I seem to be the only other person supporting no-lynch, and massclaim started but petered out thanks to replacements.
Azrael is scum.
...and actually not much else appears to be happening.
@rezombied
Counterquestion. Why in the world did you ask this question? Especially to the point of characterizing it as 'blathering'?
Because I see absolutely nothing wrong with Megiddo's post above, and see absolutely no reason for you to have thrown this response out to it.
@Prophylaxis
...not a fan of that [redacted]. I also find both of those points you raise rather feeble - the former is glorified lurker-hunting, and the latter point is just nonsense. I remember Seppel playing the game quite actively in Survival Horror, as town.
@Megiddo
...run that by me again? I saw your justification for suddenly reversing on LnGrrrR, but when did you suddenly obtain a scumread on DCIII?
Although speaking of DCIII...
@Anyone who's played with DCIII: Is it his normal methodology to extrapolate scum motivation from a number of small points? He just did this in the endgame of CT3, and I'd like to know how usual this is for him.
I'm also not fond of the aggrieved tone he's taking in response to Megiddo at the current time, for related reasons.
In other news, Sir Chris looks a lot better now. His recent posts are far more inquisitive and incisive than his early hyper-defensive tone.
One more thing...
@Iso: ...wait, when did I suddenly become the expert on you? Because I don't recall in the least where I supposedly started reading you correctly all the time. If I read anyone mostly accurately, it's Cyan, not you.
And yes, Thor, that's the keyword - this game. I was impressed by you in the first two games, and Nacho in the first. Here? Not so much. And Zen's showing was particularly poor, I feel, especially where he didn't even bother to show up to claim.
Going to take the weekend to cool my head before sorting out this game.
Echoed, except that instead of 'taking glee' replace 'smack face into palm liberally'.
Seriously, the only MS player I felt was legitimately good this game was LanguidJaguar.
------------------------------------------
The vast majority of my frustration goes entirely to all of those players who were town-reading you for blatant mimicry of emotion.
With one exception. I feel the personal digs were beneath you. Now, in the abstract, I know exactly what you were doing - playing up to the [expletive self-redacted] MS townie meta, which is apparently being an overemotional [expletive self-redacted], but that didn't make it much less annoying. I did have to check myself several times from going into a real tirade, and I won't hesitate to say that if you ever do it again in a game with me and I have a killing role, I will take that as an auto scum-tell and kill you sight unseen.
But yes. Other than that, every iota of my annoyance with this game goes instead to everyone who blocked your lynch, multiple times.
In actual fact, I did have Azrael and Cyan as scum together - specifically for two reasons. The first is ancient history - I still remember Cyan, as scum, conspiring in-thread with a town player to kill one of his own teammates on early day 1, so I would never have cleared Cyan for his position on Azrael anyway. The second, and the real reason, was that post where he was giving tips to Azrael about securing his internet connection on his cruise. That didn't sound at all like something a Cyan actually wanting Azrael dead would say - instead, it sounded very much like 'please be on if a quicklynch opportunity shows up'.
I didn't say anything, however, because that was predicated on Azrael being scum, and I figured if I said anything he'd just NK me and then everyone else would clear him based on Azrael flipping scum. Meh.
If any scum slot had me fooled, it was the Taredas slot, i.e. yours. I had him read as fairly town the whole while. The point at which I started to be suspicious of your slot was only in the same post where you declare Kami and Cyan as scum, because while convincing on the surface, it was prone to all the same logical discrepancies that Azrael was guilty of all game - thus the questions I aimed at you. Of course, that was far too little, far too late.
-------------
On balance, though, well played to the mafia. Cyan and Taredas played more than well enough, and while I don't think Azrael played particularly well, he definitely managed to manipulate the MS side masterfully.
Still, I'm highly unsure if I actually want to participate in the MS side of this series, given that, if I was going by this game alone, LanguidJaguar is literally the only MS player I'd want on my team.
I've also only skimmed latest content. Apologies for that as well, but my other game is kind of at a critical juncture.
@LnGrrrR
Re:Karn: ...that's a horrible reason to give someone a pass. It doesn't matter how much 'better' at being town than scum someone is in the abstract. This isn't a statistics exercise - if you don't think Karn's play to that point had been 'particularly townie', then it shouldn't matter if he's a lousier scum 77% of the time or whatever. Heck, if he's a lousier scum, then all the more reason to pressure him early and shake something loose - going by what you say, a town Karn should be able to deal with said pressure far better than a scum Karn, hmm?
Your whole attitude with regards to Karn stinks, just like Karn's entire game to this point stinks.
@Megiddo
Because it read like an attempt to discredit him. I know you should be familiar with the tactic of keeping a window of doubt open on townish players, and that's exactly what you and someone else (Sir Chris, I think) were doing.
And while your explanation is decent, I'm not sure I like your attempt to denigrate it as a 'minor point'.
Mmh. The first bit is a valid point - someone aware of the role randomization should be less likely to single out doc/watcher roles, given that there's no guarantee they're town, if they're even present.
I was thinking the second bit was a bit of a stretch, given that the point above about role randomization applies just as much to scum as to town. but I think I see where you're coming from with that. Mm.
----------------
Unvote
There's a bunch of people I need to take a closer look at, LnGrrrR, Karn, and Wildfire among them. I also remember having issues with AI and Sir Chris.
Also, I think I noted on skim that there needs to be some distinction between acronyms used for me and DCIII. I had hansanator's post quoted to ask when the heck we ever played a game together until I realized who he was talking about.
First...
@Azrael
I'm seriously alarmed at your shade, Mr. Pot.
I mean, seriously. That entire first line? It doesn't change a damned thing about what I said - that Taredas was firmly set on me-town and you-scum, and that ced, while 'unsure' about you day 2, still never indicated he would vote me; therefore that snide dig about the replacement situation 'having been kind to me' is, as I said, utter rot. And that last bolded bit is especially rich, given the accusation that you level at me the very next line about 'failing to look up the posts in question'.
And also, seriously, what is this, a 10-year old screaming competition? The irony is palpable in accusing me of 'screaming and calling people liars' while saying I'm 'not fighting with honour'. I'd roll my eyes, but this doesn't even deserve that much energy.
------------------
As to recent events... that reaction from KoL is all kinds of ick. It's OMGUS at LyLo with extra histronics on the side. I can very easily see KoL as scum now, especially given how this -
- is blatant rubbish. At best, it's a particular methodology; and it's definitely not one to which I subscribe. I'm always looking for scum, partially because it's all too easy to get caught up in an early town read and never change your mind even when you really should. (At least if you're wrong with a scum read, you'll find that out sooner rather than later.) At worst, it's a total misrepresentation.
The thing is, though, DCIII... I've read through your case, and it's fairly convincing. The part I'm having trouble wrapping my head around is that it's predicated on Azrael being town.
Of the points you raise, I can in fact see the first two paragraphs as a half-hearted attempt to help blunt the momentum on a scumbuddy. The third paragraph, though, I'll agree does appear to point towards Az=town if KoL=scum.
...mm.
A few questions, DCIII.
1. If Kami and Cyan are scum, and Azrael is town, then why has Kami been persisting in hard-reading Azrael as town today, in the face of large amounts of opposition? (Or, alternatively, why has Cyan been just as adamantly for me=town, Azrael=scum today?) Given that a mislynch today probably means we lose, why would they (and whoever their last member is) not take a more unified stance today, whether on me or Azrael?
2. What do you think of Azrael's comments on KoL today, anyway? He's been hard-reading her as town for much of today as well. And while I do like the first part of #1312 and #1323 taking the null hypothesis that KoL is scum, #1314 reads like an attempt to say 'she'd have to be really really good scum to do that'.
3. Your case appears to be predicated entirely on day 1? Have you read day 2?
As for Cyan... you do make a few good points there. I think I have to look over Cyan again. It would fit my supposition that one of the people firmly on my side was scum white-knighting me. Mmh.
...also, one more thing.
Why that bolded line?
Quick responses:
@LnGrrrR
Calm and rational? I'm not sure I got that impression the first time round.
What did you think about his stated reasons for calling out Cythare, anyway? (If you said it before, list the post number, please.)
...so then what is a scum!Karn, hmmm?
@Seppel
Sir Chris and Karn, off the top of my head. The latter for simply jumping on with zero input, just as the wagon was gaining traction.
@Megiddo
...I still don't get this. Yes, I agreed with the plan, and you agreed with the plan, because it made sense. In that case why in the world does someone doing the research and laying out a plan that makes perfect sense make you raise your eyebrow?
Speaking of said plan.
Vote: Move to Ruchperion
That's a pack of utter lies, and one that doesn't answer anything at all about how you seem perfectly content to do absolutely nothing but stand there and hide behind your false bravado and baseless attacks at me, despite this being virtual LyLo.
That last, particularly, is such an utter obvious lie that anyone paying attention would realize it to be untrue. The people that have been replaced are Taredas, ced, and mastin. The first was on record as being firmly against you and firmly for me as town, and would be voting you as long as he wasn't one of your team white knighting me. The second was 'unsure' about you, but would probably have been right on you after Nacho flipped town, and in any case never made the slightest indication he'd vote me. The only one that description might fit would have been mastin, and that doesn't change the fact that the replacement situation more than likely removed two players that would have been voting you, not me. And if you're scummy enough for their replacements to instantly spot... well, that's very much your own fault.
....siiigh.
Cyan, how much of your scum read of Thor is dependent on Az-scum?
Also,
@Thor
Between a deadline no-lynch and lynching Azrael, which would you prefer?
@LnGrrrR: Let me get this straight. You think Sir Chris getting defensive after 2-3 votes is a town tell?
@Sir Chris: I don't think I'm quite convinced by some of your responses yet, but you did make a good point re: Megiddo. To whit..
@Megiddo: I somehow missed that the first time round, but you did actually say that Arianrhod posting about going to Ruchperion - a post which you appear to have been totally convinced by - is a scum tell for him, and appeared to be encouraging Sir Chris with that? Explain to me how that works, please.
Wildfire is probably town. Too many questionable people were piled on him at one point. Won't be sure until I untangle abovementioned cluster a bit, though.
I was going to call this a total scumslip, because if Azrael is somehow town, and we lynch him, we lose and there isn't a tomorrow. But Azrael provides alternate reasoning in his next post.
...so his stated reason is that he thinks he'll be obvtown and NKed at the end of today. (Uh huh. Riiight.)
The absurdity of that above aside, I still can't see this as coming from a town mindset. For one thing, the two votes are apparently 'not so much his concern'... after having poked at Rhand earlier about 'two votes being enough for a speedlynch'. Right. And also, for a town player at virtual LyLo, I would think that having two votes on said town player would absolutely be more of a concern than just about anything else, given that a mislynch on him would end the game.
I'm not feeling that urgency from him, and that whole spiel about 'if I'm wrong on any of you, I'll have to revisit...' sounds incredibly insincere given that him being wrong about any of us and mislynching us similarly ends the game. It's a horrible excuse, and frankly I would have accepted 'I'm on a cruise and can't give a fluttering fornication' more than this nonsense.
--------
The problem is that right now we seem to be at an impasse. Cyan, Rhand, and I think Azrael is scum, as well as LanguidJaguar, apparently. But Kami is apparently 100% unwilling to lynch Azrael (or, now that I think about it, even comment on most of the points raised against him), and Thor says he 'doesn't support the Azrael wagon'. kpaca's slot is still MIA.
And I still can't say I'm willing to lynch anyone but Azrael today. I wouldn't stake the game on anyone else being scum, in any case.
One more thing...
@Thor: What in blazes did you mean by 'declare a race between Cyan and Jaguar'?
Question. Why was your immediate reaction to a proposed move to Alway Eteem to counterpropose a move to Ruchperion?
@Sir Chris
...uh huh. Here, your stated reason for singling out Cythare was him 'posting without any real intent', presumably meaning posting only about the mechanics of the Worlds and nothing else... which was what pretty much 80% of everyone posting at that point was doing.
But no, apparently you also did so because he disagreed with the Alway Eteem move, and it's apparently 'easy to disagree' early on. Then why not Killjoy, who just quietly threw up a counterproposal with no particular reason to it?
Okay, then... 'not presenting new ideas and new direction'. Then why say nothing about Megiddo, who very quite literally offers no opinion, no committal, and no direction?
This whole explanation for why you mentioned Cythare stinks. I don't see any real reason for you to have singled out Cythare in particular on page 2.
This whole paragraph reads like backtracking.
Yes. Yes you are a bad person for that, because I don't see any reason for mafia to go to that kind of effort early on day 1 and actually post it in-thread. I've also run the math and see no fault in his reasoning as far as I can see.
In fact, I really don't see any way someone can sincerely try to paint that post as coming from scum. Except, of course, for scum trying to discredit someone who just came off as strongly town.
Really. Those in favour of a massclaim, in a game with random role assignments, in a Specialty-level game, are more town to you than scum.
Try pulling the other one. It's not only got bells on, it turns on the lights and the stereo, too.
Vote: Sir Chris
@LnGrrrR
Wait, what? Explain.
-------------
I need to look at just who suggested massclaiming in the first place, as well as look over Wildfire again. I didn't see anything particularly wrong with him on the first skim of these 8 pages, though.
That being said... Jaguar, why do you have a total null read of me again? Regardless of what I thought of it, a good number of the player base seemed to have had me down as either obvtown or obvscum by the end of day 1. Did really nothing stand out to you at all?
Also...
@Mod: When is the deadline right now? Or is it still suspended thanks to continuing replacement?
Azrael's posts are now beginning to be this continuous refrain of attempts to discredit me. Blatantly contrived voting rationales, my foot. It was plain as day yesterday that Nacho and I couldn't have been scum together, and yet that's the conclusion he somehow arrived at based on reasons far weaker than those that ced and I were pushing him for.
Why would you take the opposite conclusion for the first 2/3 of the PBPA, Azrael? I don't know, maybe because you'd spent the entirety of day 1 and most of day 2 declaring Nacho obvtown?
Kami as Azrael's buddy looks increasingly likely. Her voting pattern today (and especially in this weekend's posts) seems pretty much 'anything but Azrael'.
I didn't see the value in a massclaim either, but people started popcorn claiming on their own accord, so eh.
As for why Azrael is scum... just read the thread. You can look at my posts, at Azrael's posts. I've gone on at length about it over pretty much the whole thread.
I'm supporting no lynch because mathematics. But more seriously, it's because I'm still very unclear as to who the other mafia would be.
That's odd, because the impression I've gotten from the two previous CT games is that they don't like each other at all. It could be playacting in this game, or using genuine animosity to hide being on the same team, I'll grant, but I'm still having trouble seeing them on the same scum team.
Maybe because he's not obvtown to me, which I've stated before earlier this game day.
Specifically, with Nacho flipping town, I didn't like his 'I totally agree with Nacho on everything and, oh darn, I hope he's not scum' from day 1, and heck, said as much on day 1, but didn't pursue it because I was sure Nacho was scum and it made no sense for scum to attach themselves to other scum that way. I also remember him being fairly anonymous day 2, and not particularly fighting the Nacho lynch.
As for no lynching... you have noticed that I'm probably the only other player who supported Thor's call for no lynch today, right? And that I'm still not yet voting, because I don't want to place a vote until we're absolutely sure we're lynching instead of no-lynching?
I can't speak for anyone else, but while I was suspicious of ced's day 2, your posts since you replaced in make it highly unlikely to me that you're scum with Azrael, who is my only 100% scum read.
That being said, you have noticed me trying to figure out how you arrived at the reads you've been presenting, right?
@LanguidJaguar
We're most probably at virtual LyLo.
Thor proposed a no-lynch and massclaim. I seem to be the only other person supporting no-lynch, and massclaim started but petered out thanks to replacements.
Azrael is scum.
...and actually not much else appears to be happening.