MTG Salvation

Quote from Vaimes »

I have spent weeks trying to get Last and Rhand lunched. You’ve demonstrated that their attention towards me trying to get them killed isn’t enough to be secure in my alignment. So what do you actually want from me?

intellectual curiosity and an attempt to solve the game.

i'm going to make one last Big Post with my thoughts, and then vote Vezok. after that I recommend lynching either Vezok or me Today. I don't care which. we're the main obstacles to the POE at this stage I think, and if people want to lynch me, Today is a better day to get me off of the table than Tomorrow.

GL, and don't forget to challenge your assumptions.

Quote from Vaimes »

I attract all the bad boys.

Why do I feel like you are the only one who isn't trying

I apparently didn't bold the thing I said I would bold.

> Scum spent all of d2 voting Vaimes. Like, if the balance of reads had shifted, Vaimes could have been lynched. I don't see about doing that all of d2.

^ this seemed very suspicious to me. Like, why do both scum spend so much time with just Vaimes?

Quote from Killjoy »

I feel like you're not taking into account the vca I presented. Vaimes spent all of d2 voting scum. Scum spent all of d2 voting Vaimes. Like, if the balance of reads had shifted, Vaimes could have been lynched. I don't see about doing that all of d2.

Admittedly, my world view is based around either you or Cantrip scum and Vaimes being the kill tonight. If me and Vaimes are still alive tomorrow I promise to look more into that possibility though.

I'm ready to vote if we have nothing else. I will come back on my break to do so. Should be in two hours.

who are you talking to here?

my proposal to you is to consider the above as a planned and coordinated Daychat strategy. read back Tomorrow and think hard on it.

obviously if you end up dead we have to re-evaluate a bit. but if we get to 3-person lylo we can use the full time.

we have ~ 7 hours.

i mean, I agree that we shouldn't hash this all out today. We don't have time. which is why I want to lynch Vezok Today. get that off of the table. Deal with you (and probably me?) tomorrow with whoever of KJ/Cantrip gets to live.

totally unrelated, should we massclaim here? i'll go first if you guys want.

Quote from Cantripmancer »

Plus...Vaimes, Megiddo? Really?

Hail Mary or brilliant hot take?

well it's definitely a hail mary. but I also am hoping it's also a brilliant hot take.

short version is that, outside of checking vezok to assure that it wasn't a gambit (which, despite everything you are about to read, is still the direction I want to go Today), I really, really didn't have a good idea of where to go:

- Cantrip: Outside of D1 I never really got the feeling that you were scum. Could be? But it feels kind of wrong. You would have to have been playing very well as scum here.
- Killjoy: Outside of D3 I never really got the feeling that he was scum. Could be? But it feels kind of wrong. He would have to have been playing very well as scum here.

I'm not discounting the possibilities obviously, but there may be a reason it feels like Today isn't going anywhere.

So I delved into the interaction analysis (Killjoy- did you finish yours?), which I'll present later this morning (still finishing). If you don't know, this is a thing I like to do where you go back and look at, purely numerically, who the dead scum were talking with. If you have two dead, you look for patterns. The theory is that scum are less likely to talk to each other than to town. So I was hoping to see a reasonable clear pattern pointing to Vezok.

I didn't. So I did Vezok's. And there was nothing pointing me to Last or Rhand.

Ok, head scratcher. Vezok probably not it. doesn't fit. Please note that while you are gathering numerical data to look at patterns, you by necessity have to read every single post by the people as you do it, and Vezok's didn't really stand out as too agenda-driven.

So then I was thinking. What patterns DO exist? And there was only one thing that both dead scum had in common. Both talked to Vaimes way more than anybody else. That didn't strike me as unusual the first time I was looking at that since Vaimes is top poster and he, naturally, would have talked to everybody more than anybody else. Except that Vezok's numbers didn't reflect that. so at this point I realized I would need to do the exercise for Vaimes.

Again, nothing I've said until now is actually incriminatory. But this prompted me to run the exercise on Vaimes himself. And, by virtue of a full game reread (vaimes posts in such a way that this exercise is impossible to do via ISO), I have hit on a few things that are making me question whether we should be writing him off as obvtown.

The first thing I want to point out, which I'll show with charts, is that Vaimes is a completely different persion before and after Last replaced in.
As soon as Last replaces in, the three of them (last, vaimes, and rhand!) all have this quick flurry of interactions that are largely prompted by Vaimes and Last seemingly taunting each other. you can see how the relative numbers jump way up for both of them. Something of note is that KoolKoal, who was the lynch, didn't really get a ton of interaction, especially relative to those two.

This is why I said to reread the beginning of the game considering that the scum had Daychat. In review, this whole interaction looks coordinated. It would throw off exactly this kind of analysis as well as throw off anybody just observing them.

--

I've only gotten through page 25 of a vaimes-focused reread (which is midway through D2). However, if you read back you'll see that people did point this behavior out at the time. You'll also see how Vaimes appears to be hostile toward both Last and Rhand and even votes for them, but when the pressure was on backs off. Look back to when both Last and Vaimes voted for Rhand (this was when he made it to L-2) and Last unvoted, then Vaimes did too.

I'm getting pulled away to go get breakfast, but I'll post some more after I get back. Reread D1 and tell me if you see what I am seeing.

i think it's vaimes.

will elaborate in the morning.

Quote from Megiddo »

also, if you haven't, go reread just the first... 5 pages of the game thread in their entirety. let me know what you think.

here's a hint if you are rereading: don't forget that the scum had daychat.

from your gigantic post above?

304 - I had asked two posts up what Silver thought about Tom's alignment... I believe at the time that I was still having some trouble sorting out what was what in this game (recall my "strange energy" posts as well as commentary about how people are playing a little detached). I wanted to clarify Silver's stance. 304 was me acknowledging that Silver did, actually, think that Tom was scum.

tom/silver: I was scumreading only one of them, and ~not townreading~ the other. Tom is a player I don't feel like I can read at this time. I mentioned they could be s/s only because I wanted to keep that thought in people's heads.
Actually, related to this, I was sort of hoping you'd comment on this at some point. like, it seems like an Observation you could have made. Not sure the Conclusion, but the Observation was there for you, specifically, and nobody else, to make. Unless you did and I forgot?

confession: I believe others had already asked, and until he put forth what he thought said confession was I wasn't going to waste my time. I did mention it (note the sarcasm tick marks). I did mention that because usually when somebody decides that their RVS vote was actually on scum they'll actually mention it (like "confirm rvs vote" or something to that effect). Rhand didn't.

912: no, probably not. But as I just reread the game up until this point I can tell you that at the time Rhand was a scumread, his wagon was gaining traction, and the Day needed some momentum. I saw I could put him in claim range, so I did.

i am not clear where I unvoted that you are asking about.

can you be more explicit with your last question? I have no idea what specific posts you are asking about.

killjoy i'm just going to flat out ask you:

did you intentionally try to incorporate the suggestion i made to you in modern spec chat in to your play this game?

also, if you haven't, go reread just the first... 5 pages of the game thread in their entirety. let me know what you think.

i dislike Last's posting style, so I probably completely ignored him.

I didn't learn my lesson from the previous game, which is "last is good at scum because people ignore his posts because they don't like his style"

vez, were you convinced by my KCC case or were you scumreading her beforehand? i forget.