I've had success with GR aggro that can backdoor into midranged in some draws despite topping out at 4. Experiment One and Kessig Prowler are the best 1 drops, followed by Rackdos Cackler. Voltaic Brawler and anything else that can randomly dominate a board in one way or another is good(Kessig Forgemaster, Longtusk Cub, Darkthicket Wolf, even something like Duskwatch Recruiter might fit into this category). Basically anything reasonably aggressive works for 3 drops, and if they can take over a game than even better. On 4 you have all of the really strong G and R creatures, which easily 2 for 1 or just win a game from ahead. Then just add burn. The deck just kills any opponent that stumbles.
By sarcastically mocking and belittling my point you seem to make your points more relevant and important than mine, which I am refuting. You provided arguments for Hammerhand over Cartouche, and I responded to them. I fail to see how the first line wasn't serious when all you did was list 4 things, and that's primarily what I responded to.
I'm not talking about threaten effects, though that is another minor thing. I'm talking about if you can't attack with a Hammerhanded creature, then your opponent can play Control Magic and swing with your creature immediately. And, despite it not being my point, when we're talking about extremely minor advantages one point of life is still one point of life and is hardly deserving of ridicule when your points are much more specific and unlikely.
I'm assuming most people are on Blastoderm and Calciderm as their only shroud creatures (Calcite Snapper is not a very aggressive card even if you do run it), maybe Frazzled Editor as a protection card, and maybe 0-2 illusions. Killing illusions are irrelevant because they would die to the trigger, except Labyrinth Guardian, which I don't recall many people being excited about. If you run all of those cards then sure, Hammerhand is probably better because of it, but I would take a guess that most people run just the 2 shroud creatures. In your aggressive red deck you might have 1 shroud creature, but you could play against multiple control magic effects. My point may be weak, but I think your points are even weaker.
There is certainly the argument that it plays around instant speed removal, which could certainly be enough to justify Hammerhand over Cartouche, and after thinking through it once more it probably has enough cases that it is slightly better.
It's minor, but if you target their creature they have to kill their own creature to stop the can't block effect. It's more of a perfect play than something that actually comes up. I think the Cartouche is better because if you mind control the creature it falls off, but Hammerhand will let you attack on the turn you steal the creature.
I put it in as filler and I've never found a deck even close to wanting it. It just seems like a 7 mana Jetting Glasskite, which is only reasonable with some ramp, but all the green high drops are better... There are probably decks that actually can't beat it, but it looks horrendous whenever I consider playing it main.
I've been pretty happy with about 3 or 4 flash creatures in my simic decks: Horizon Chimera, Fleetfeather Cockatrice, and a couple of the green ones. I don't think simic gains a lot by getting a weaker Horizon Chimera, and I don't think the flash is good enough in other blue decks. I think I would play a 4 mana 3/2 flash flier with some other minor upside (loot on etb, minor combat buff, etc.) so it's relatively close.
Sorry, forgot 70% was inclusive of the double hits: you average out to about a card, not 1.2 cards. The 2 cards (ignoring creature types) are probably about equally powerful if you value a card like Elvish Visionary does.
A 4 mana 3/4 draw 70% of a card is a bit weaker than a 4 mana 2/3 first strike draw 1.2 cards. I'm not really a fan of Courageous Outrider because most humans are low cost aggressive creatures, which makes playing 10 of them an aggressive deck that doesn't really want a cantriping 4 drop. Most of the soldiers I play are midranged creatures, and the fact that it hits your soldier lords and a strong later game threat in Sentinel of the Eternal Watch makes it more appealing (Kor Skyfisher and Aerial Responder are other relevant non-human soldiers). Humans are easier to support, but I think soldiers are a better fit for this kind of effect.
Using a hypergeometric calculator: 6 soldiers is 50% to hit at least 1 and 10% to hit more than 1, 8 soldiers is 60% to hit at least 1 and 17% to hit more than 1, 10 soldiers is 70% to hit at least 1 and 26% to hit more than 1. You would need 20ish(?) soldiers (at 360 and not including tokens) to make it reasonable to get to the 9-10 range, which is doable, but may not be worth it for the mediocre payoff.
I remember Consul's Shieldguard being a 4 mana 3/4 most of the time in KLD limited.
I haven't played with Master of Diversion, but it looks like it's almost auto-blocked if possible, and that is more possible on turn 5 than turn 4. The extra power on Fiend Binder seems unlikely to matter if you're tapping the largest creature most of the time.
Flickering Spirit is bad if you're blocking and flickering. If this is in as a control finisher I don't even know what to say.
I like Glimmerpoint Stag at a 2. It's entirely reasonable to cube, but you really need a solid suite of ETBs in your deck because the rate is much worse than Flickerwisp. There are also a good amount of self-bounce or flicker effects and you can only run so many.
I think Ballista Squad is too awkward. It doesn't attack or block well, it's slow, it doesn't let you play your hand, it's not a threat in aggro, and it's weak to removal. It certainly can be difficult to deal with, but it's really clunky.
I don't really think mono blue is viable any more than mono black is. Mono blue is just a bad UW deck for the most part, and while mono black does have bad match-ups it does beat more threat light compositions fairly convincingly. I've played mono B a few times and been impressed with it: Hymn to Tourach and Read the Bones in addition to removal, value creatures, and reanimation just kind of defangs a lot of decks; I've played mono B vs. mono U and it wasn't particularly close as I played around 11 removal spells to kill the majority of their creatures. Mono green isn't viable mostly because there isn't a reason not to splash for one of the numerous things green doesn't do well.
I find that green decks are usually good, but just not exciting. I've recently been pretty happy with Gbu spider spawning type decks for getting some excitement in green, but that's a very specific deck and doesn't help the other green decks. Joraga Treespeaker and Experiment One also both draw people into green, but most of the best green cards feel more like 2-4th picks than 1st picks to me.
I like Surreal Memoir at a 1. It's mostly a BR card in my experience, where the randomness doesn't really matter because it mostly just gets back 2 removal spells, and even in UR the cards don't really matter outside of really tight situations. It's not fantastic, but playing it on 4 with only a bolt in grave is pretty good as you can bolt in response to the rebound, and casting multiple Bituminous Blasts or Electrolyzes feels great.
Grab the Reins seems flexible enough for a 1. It never made it in to any decks while it was in my cube, but it certainly appears versatile. 7 mana kill your two biggest guys is good and occasionally great, the steal and trade line can come up, 4 mana threaten, response fling my guy, fogs an attacker, etc.. In a slower deck that can get to 7 mana consistently I could see it having enough versatility to be good.
I'm assuming most people are on Blastoderm and Calciderm as their only shroud creatures (Calcite Snapper is not a very aggressive card even if you do run it), maybe Frazzled Editor as a protection card, and maybe 0-2 illusions. Killing illusions are irrelevant because they would die to the trigger, except Labyrinth Guardian, which I don't recall many people being excited about. If you run all of those cards then sure, Hammerhand is probably better because of it, but I would take a guess that most people run just the 2 shroud creatures. In your aggressive red deck you might have 1 shroud creature, but you could play against multiple control magic effects. My point may be weak, but I think your points are even weaker.
There is certainly the argument that it plays around instant speed removal, which could certainly be enough to justify Hammerhand over Cartouche, and after thinking through it once more it probably has enough cases that it is slightly better.
I haven't played with Master of Diversion, but it looks like it's almost auto-blocked if possible, and that is more possible on turn 5 than turn 4. The extra power on Fiend Binder seems unlikely to matter if you're tapping the largest creature most of the time.
Flickering Spirit is bad if you're blocking and flickering. If this is in as a control finisher I don't even know what to say.
I like Glimmerpoint Stag at a 2. It's entirely reasonable to cube, but you really need a solid suite of ETBs in your deck because the rate is much worse than Flickerwisp. There are also a good amount of self-bounce or flicker effects and you can only run so many.
Aysen Crusader is basically a Crusader of Odric, but only counts half your creatures.
Benalish Heralds are far too slow; Azure Mage is significantly better and in only 1 colour.
I wouldn't play a 4/4 for 4, and Cavalry Master is worse than a 4/4 for 4.
Thunder Spirit and Voiceless Spirit are both better than Cloud Crusader.
I think Ballista Squad is too awkward. It doesn't attack or block well, it's slow, it doesn't let you play your hand, it's not a threat in aggro, and it's weak to removal. It certainly can be difficult to deal with, but it's really clunky.
Grab the Reins seems flexible enough for a 1. It never made it in to any decks while it was in my cube, but it certainly appears versatile. 7 mana kill your two biggest guys is good and occasionally great, the steal and trade line can come up, 4 mana threaten, response fling my guy, fogs an attacker, etc.. In a slower deck that can get to 7 mana consistently I could see it having enough versatility to be good.