MTG Salvation

Doesn't Q3+shadow fail if D_V is town?

(Unless you're not posting votals, in which case carry on I guess.)

I did that a while ago; I still have the votals in my spreadsheet, even. But I didn't post it because it directly helps the assassin find Merlin.
I guess it won't matter if we fail here, but. If you're town you may want to reconsider or at least explain why you're doing it anyway.

@shadow:

I only said not you because from your PoV D_V is confirmed scum so you'll be against it no matter what.

So... are we just going to wait for AG to propose or...?

Does anyone (besides shadow) want to make an argument against Q2+Rhand/Mindreaver?
Would Proph like to say anything at all?
Could AG let us know what he's thinking right now?

(please?)

Quote from Rhand »

I think we should stop talking about Oberon. If we win, we don't want scum to know who Oberon is. (another reason why I like AG)

If he's on Q3 they already know that much, but. Point taken.

(Or they're all town and Shadow is scum.)

I... hadn't thought about that.

There's probably an argument for not throwing fails, at least for Q1 and Q2. On the other hand, if you're pretty sure the rest of the quest is town, it's not too risky. And having two fails on Q3 throws the whole game into confusion.

I would have thrown a fail as Oberon on Q3, anyway.

But if Cantrip selected Oberon, he either got lucky as scum or he's town. Probably the latter.
And if Cantrip is town, either D_V is town or Rhand is scum with him.
I think that was where I was going with Rhand's alignment, actually.

(That is to say, I have this faint recollection that Rhand's alignment depends on whether or not Oberon failed Q3 because if he's scum it's either with just D_V or just Cantrip but not both, and he can't be Oberon if he's scum with Cantrip. But I don't remember exactly what I was thinking when I thought that.)

Not if Proph is Oberon like Rhand said.
I need to look at that more closely because I don't remember exactly what I thought about Oberon failing Q3 and Rhand being town.

You could have left it another day or so, but. #notmyvote.

I am also ready. If someone doesn't do it in about 48 hours it will default to yes, so...

I dunno. Like. 20% maybe? Could be lowballing due to cognitive bias, etc. but.

Some of the things you did just scream scum at me when I reread those sections. Like trying so very very hard to get 1-for-1'd coming off of Q2 instead of figuring out if the scum was me or D_V. I just don't ever see that as a town mindset. The town mindset is "one of the other two is scum, which is it?" not "one of us three is scum, two of us need to sit out so I'll sit out with one of you."

And then your voting pattern is... convenient? If D_V is town, you voted against Rhand's proposal (probably clean in scum!you worlds) before jumping to yes after it was abundantly clear it wouldn't pass. You were against Cantrip's Q3 but that already had a decent amount of support, I think. It's just too easy for scum to make the votes you made, I guess. And the unvote you made here... it's possible it comes from town, but it's also possible you were hoping to hammer it yes if it got close enough.

I just can't unsee scum!shadow worlds. They both have narratives that make sense and I'm sort of wrestling with which one makes the most sense but I don't want to just lose to you/Osi teams.

Either way I think you win here regardless of your alignment, especially if AG proposes Q3+you. So. Yay for you?

Wall, sorry.

Quote from osieorb18 »

Quote from Silvercrys3467 »

What? Is D_V replacing out?

It looks from D_V's profile that D_V's suspended/banned from the site.

Oh, I can't see that. Might be modpowers or something? Either way.

Quote from Silvercrys3467 »

Anyway. Yeah. The plan should be: everyone votes this down. AG proposes Q3(-Proph)(+D_V)(+shadow) and we all vote yes. Osi proposes AG's Q4 and/or shadow proposes Q3+AG for Q5. If Q5 somehow comes to me I can either propose Q3+AG with D_V in my spot (shadow scum claims) or the passing Q4 with AG in my spot.

Uhh... What? This just sounds like a bad plan. Since when is Shadow town enough or Proph scum enough to replace Proph with Shadow alongside two uncertainties, at least one of which is probably scum (Rhand, D_V)?

shadow isn't, but there's only one scum in shadow/D_V. If Proph is scum, dropping him from Q3 and adding them results in one fail. There's only two fails if Rhand is scum instead of Proph.

Quote from Silvercrys3467 »

Game is locked if you trust that AG is town and Proph is scum. If Proph is town he needs to get in here and prove it.

Both of those reads seem unlikely. And if there is a strict dichotomy between AG and myself, AG is scum.

There's not a strict dichotomy? Well, actually, I guess there kind of is in that if he's town you cannot be. Or scum!Brinatoo is trolling or something and proposed a passing quest (unlikely, I think).

Quote from osieorb18 »

Just because Proph's been missing since last Sunday certainly doesn't confirm a scumread. Proph was also doing work on his own game setup, which is another commitment. He loses energy late game on either team, and I certainly see why. (Heck, I'm sometimes much the same in IRL gaming of this sort.) I'm not entirely sure where Silver's scumread of Proph is coming from.

Basically, it boils down to the fact that I don't think this is the regular "Proph falls off/loses interest regardless of alignment." I played two games with him when we were both town, and I read a pretty long mentor QT he had with Voxx, and I've talked to him/seen him say stuff on Discord about his own scum game. I feel like he would be saying /something/ as town because he'd feel awful if we lost because he wasn't doing anything. Even if he just came in and posted some paranoid thought about how me or Mindreaver might be scum. Like, I guess he could be IRL busy or whatever but it doesn't feel that way.

I also have stronger townreads on Mindreaver from previous stuff and on Rhand from the talk we just had. I ~guess it could still be Rhand? In which case he's either scum with Cantrip or D_V but not both and if he's scum with Cantrip/shadow we lose by no-voting AG's proposal because you're scum like 90% of the time here by virtue of Brinatoo's inclusion of you.

At some point I have to say "Forget it, this is the world I think it is, and if I'm wrong, oh well."

If I could be convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that you and shadow aren't knowingly aligned (that is, that shadow is town or D_V is scum), I'd go back to the "vote AG's quest down and make one of you propose Q3 + AG" plan but. I don't know. I've procrastinated enough today and I don't really have time to reconsider my thoughts here.

It should be noted that since we have to pass whatever shadow proposes, if he proposes a passing quest he's cleared and I'll be putting him in my spot on Q5.

Quote from shadowlancerx »

And regarding taking out proph, I really don't like the plan of adding me and DV.

Well. From your PoV game is locked anyway if we no-vote AG's quest and he's town, so...

That was my original plan, if that matters. No-vote AG's proposal, have whichever one of you/Osi is town propose Q3+AG. Problem is, we lose to you/Osi if you're both scum and I can't convince myself you're not. And I'd rather not leave it up to the coin flip between you/D_V that this essentially is.

I'm pretty sure at this point that Proph is scum, so this avoids the problem entirely in my mind. Even if you're both scum it won't matter because I can propose AG's quest with him in my spot, if it comes to that.