Quote from Sexymsjackson23 »Updated the crunch with a rarity breakdown for each color. I feel each monocolor will get about 7 rares and the other remaining 18 rares will be artifacts/land/multicolored. Hopefully rares are more balanced than the mythics were.
I agree with 7 rares per color theory. I was thinking 8 before (especially because I was hoping that the legends with off-color abilities would be a cycle), but that only would have worked if there were no more colorless/multicolor/land rares spoiled, and seeing Cabal Stronghold proved that theory wrong. It is possible that some colors might get more rares than others. (This used to be something they avoided doing, but that's changed recently; they actually gave white and blue extra rares in Ixalan and blue an extra rare in Rivals, if I'm not mistaken.) However, I doubt that this is the case because having 1 colorless card, 37 cards each for two colors, and 38 each for three colors brings us to 189 exactly before multicolored cards. We definitely can't see more since Adeliz is at 190, and I doubt that we'll see less because it's highly unlikely that we get another multicolored rare whose name happens to be alphabetically before Adeliz. Considering that we have three colors with two mythics (RWB) and two with one (GU), having an equal number of rares across all colors would allow us to have three colors with 38 and two with 37. I also think we can rule out Oath of Karn unless something weird happens - the only way that we could get another colorless nonartifact is with one less white card, which would mean one less white rare (since they don't have different numbers of cards in each color at common/uncommon), and white already has five rares spoiled officially plus Benalish Marshal which is part of a rare cycle and Evra, Halcyon Witness which definitely isn't uncommon. Ultimately, I'm thinking the color/rarity breakdown will look something like this:
- Common: 19 white, 19 blue, 19 black, 19 red, 19 green, 6 artifact (101 total)
- Uncommon: 10 white, 10 blue, 10 black, 10 red, 10 green, 10 multicolor, 14 artifact, 6 land (80 total)
- Rare: 7 white, 7 blue, 7 black, 7 red, 7 green, 6 multicolor, 6 artifact, 6 land (53 total)
- Mythic: 1 colorless nonartifact, 2 white, 1 blue, 2 black, 2 red, 1 green, 4 multicolor, 2 artifact (15 total)
- Colorless nonartifact: 1 mythic (1 total, #1)
- White: 2 mythics, 7 rares, 10 uncommons, 19 commons (38 total, #2-39)
- Blue: 1 mythic, 7 rares, 10 uncommons, 19 commons (37 total #40-76)
- Black: 2 mythics, 7 rares, 10 uncommons, 19 commons (38 total, #77-114)
- Red: 2 mythics, 7 rares, 10 uncommons, 19 commons (38 total, #115-152)
- Green: 1 mythic, 7 rares, 10 uncommons, 19 commons (37 total, #153-189)
- Multicolor: 4 mythics, 6 rares, 10 uncommons, 0 commons (20 total, #190-209)
- Artifact: 2 mythic, 6 rares, 14 uncommons, 6 commons (28 total, #210-237)
- Land: 0 mythics, 6 rares, 6 uncommons, 0 commons (12 total, #238-249)
I'm guessing that the last mythic (14 of 15 have been spoiled officially) is Multani, Yavimaya's Avatar. It's reasonably mythic-feeling and would complete a cycle of mythic rare legendary creatures (each other color has one, while the three colors with an extra mythic each get a noncreature mythic in addition to their legendary creature). Since the mythics are pretty self-explanatory, I'll just list out the rares, assuming that my current predictions are correct:
- White: Benalish Marshal, Daring Archeologist, Evra, Halcyon Witness Fall of the Thran, Shalai, Voice of Plenty, Teshar, Ancestor's Apostle, Urza's Ruinous Blast
- Blue: The Antiquities War, Karn's Temporal Sundering, The Mirari Conjecture, Naban, Dean of Iteration, Precognition Field Tempest Djinn, Zahid, Djinn of the Lamp
- Black: Josu Vess, Lich Knigth, Kazarov, Sengir Pureblood, Lich's Mastery, Rite of Belzenlok, Torgaar, Famine Incarnate, Yawgmoth's Vile Offering [TBA creature]
- Red: The First Eruption, Goblin Chainwhirler, Haphazard Bombardment, Jaya's Immolating Inferno, Siege-Gang Commander, Squee, the Immortal, Two-Headed Giant
- Green: Kamahl's Druidic Vow, Marwyn, the Nurturer, The Mending of Dominaria*, Steel Leaf Champion, Territorial Allosaurus, Reach of Branches**, Verdant Force
- Multicolor: Aryel, Knight of Windgrace, Grand Warlord Radha, Jodah, Archmage Eternal, Oath of Teferi, Primevals' Glorious Rebirth [TBA]***
- Artifact: Blackblade Reforged** Gilded Lotus, Forbear's Blade, Howling Golem**, Helm of the Host, [TBA]***
- Land: Cabal Stronghold, Clifftop Retreat, Hinterland Harbor. Isolated Chapel, Sulfur Falls, Woodland Cemetery
*The Mending of the Dominaria isn't yet spoiled, but it's been hinted at and quoted in Llanowar Envoy the same way that other sagas are quoted in flavor text, and green is both the only color lacking a rare saga and really the only color with space for more rares. This can be considered as good as confirmed as far as I'm concerned. I also read somewhere that it's supposed to be a mythic, in which case that would be the green mythic and Multani would take its spot at rare. Still, for the sake of both a mythic legendary creature cycle and a rare saga cycle, I think that a rare Mending and a mythic Multani would make the most sense, and I'm going to assume that until proven otherwise.
**Reach of Branches, Blackblade Reforged, and Howling Golem were all spoiled in the release notes but haven't been officially confirmed, so their rarities are speculative. For these three cards specifically, I think that they could conceivably be printed at uncommon, but they're more likely to be rares. If any of these are uncommons, they would simply be replaced by another rare of the same color (or lack of color), probably a card that hasn't been spoiled at all yet, even in the release notes.
***Technically #209-210 could potentially be multicolored or artifact. For all my speculation above, I've assumed that 209 is multicolored and 210 is artifact, and that's probably the safest way to leave it in the number crunch. However, it is entirely possible that both 209 and 210 are multicolored, in which case the TBA artifact should be moved to the multicolored section, or that both 209 and 210 are artifacts, in which case the TBA multicolor should be moved to the artifact section. Technically it's even possible that in addition to #209 and #210, #211 or even #212 are multicolored as well if Blackblade and/or Howling Golem are, in fact, uncommons, but it's unlikely that there are this many unspoiled multicolored cards that all happen to be alphabetically after Tiana. I'd still leave 209 as multicolored and 210 as an artifact, but don't be surprised if both end up as artifact or multicolored.
This is probably way more information than necessary but hopefully it helps with the number crunch. At the very least it helps map out the rares almost for certain, and tells us how much we have left to be spoiled (not much). In all likelihood there are only four, maybe five or six rares we haven't seen either from the release notes or official spoilers, but at least this breakdown should tell us what those rares will probably be - the triple black-cost creature, the Mending as a green saga, two multicolored and/or artifact rares, plus maybe some green and/or artifacts if certain other cards are uncommon rather than rare. I don't know how much of this will be new information to add to the crunch but at least we know what to expect.