Is now the best time to buy tarmogoyf or are they likely to go down in price even more?
If you can get them for less that $60, I'd do it. It's very unlikely they show up in the next two premium products, and even if they did it won't crash the price much from here. Goyf may be at its bottom right now. I wouldn't speculate on them, though. Just buy what you need. Fatal Push is still a card and until players figure out a way to neutralize it, Goyf won't be good again.
Goyf is still one of the best options at 2CMC. Fatal Push might have hurt its position in the metagame, but it's still a 4x in many mid-range or CoCo decks. The change in the Planeswalker rule might give a second wind to BGx decks, since they will be able to run both 3cmc Lilis at the same time.
That said, I agree with your conclusion: buy if you need them, don't speculate on them. The fan base of Magic is on a downward slope, due mostly to the many problems of standard and the changes in rotation alienating many young players. There is no guarantee Modern Staples will go up in price, since they we are also seeing more reprints.
Having survived like five "this is the end of magic" periods, I gotta say that's a little hyperbolic. Standard issues have largely passed, and the current format is being extolled by basically everyone. Modern is basically immune to those issues, as well.
Yeah Spine I think you missed the latest doomsaying period by a couple months. Although I'm sure there will be another one before too long.
Green sun's Zenith is the card I would pick from the Banlist, together with SFM to be unbanned.
And I actually think there is a pretty much big chance it could be unbanned during the next year.
On top of that, it would a really fine card to have around.
Going by the logic of every green deck playing GSZ, we should ban Thoughtseize and have it rot in the banlist.
Except Thoughtseize can be a terrible topdeck and GSZ is great at any point in the game in decks that would play it, plus it's a tutor.
I don't see it coming off.
But then again I'm not the brightest tool in the shed.
Yeah, Porphyry Nodes definitely spiked. Went from ~$2 to ~$10 on TCG a couple days ago. Looks like nobody's buying it at that price, though.
Do you know why it spiked? Is it new tech in UW Control or something? Yeah, I'm glad I got mine when they were jank 20p rares or something.
UW Control does run it occasionally. It's a cheap and powerful (if rather slow) card with only one printing and the only other card with a comparable effect is on the Reserved List.
the "slightly obscured elephant in the room" of the GP: UW Control
I agree with Sheridan that as long as one Blue-based Control deck is doing well, no action is necessary. If UW and Jeskai both start to preform poorly, though, I can definitely see unbanning SFM or potentially even Jace.
Got some stats here using an old dataset. This is the 2015 MTGO datamined dataset. Yes, it's old and a lot has changed since then, but it's the best baseline we have with a large N. That said, I'm excited for someone to go through coverage games and see what the results are at the coverage level. Smaller N but more recent; will be interesting!
Anyway, back to the data. In a sample of about 30,000 games from 2015, the average win % on the play was 51.5% and the average win % on the draw was 48.5%. This was more pronounced in game 1, where it was about 54% to 46%.
Again, I'm sure these numbers have changed since that time as we have both removed fast/slow decks and added fast/slow decks. But given how tight the gap was back then, and given my own experience today, I'm sure it's not nearly as stark as many people in this thread are saying. I'd guess it's around 53%-54% vs. 47%-46% in today's metagame. I'd also bet these numbers are almost identical in Modern as in other formats, which makes the play/draw problem a game problem, not a format problem.
Dude we have to find you a way to get adequately paid to do MtG statistical analysis for a living again. The community benefits from your work.
Second. Assuming he wants to do so, of course.
Also I agree with Pokken: 8% win/loss seems like it's enough to warrant a more balanced system such as the ones they were talking about above.
What value does modern get from probe being legal? Best case is delver and young pyromancer builds get better. Let's be honest though it's really just enabling all in hyper aggro which is a negative on a already fast format. Probe also just makes games play out worse due to the free information
I largely disagree with Z in most cases, so if we actually agree on something, you can take that to the bank. Here, we're on the same page. Probe does not improve Modern from a metagame, matchup, or even skill perspective. It just enables a few broken decks and dramatically improves Grixis DS. No thanks.
Completely agree with you guys and Leo above. Perfect information and +1 Storm/Prowess/Delve for free? **** that, I'm glad it's gone.
Honestly, Dig Through Time felt borderline broken in standard, the card was outrageous; I cringe when people suggest unbanning Dig Through Time. I had to play Mardu just to outplay the blue players, and that was still a grind. i'd love a world where Goblin Rabblemaster was good in modern.
I think Jace is just too much risk, I really doubt WOTC takes that leap of faith even five years from now
I kinda think SFM is sadly off the table for an unban, Jeskai and UW Control are doing well, and DnT is a good meta call.
I really only think BBE is likely at this time, and that really depends if WOTC wants to boost Jund and if they fear a BBE+AV combo.
Still hearing people say Eldrazi Temple and a Shadow pieces are risky investments--are they?
Agreed about Dig. I see Jace coming off the banlist before it does. I don't understand how people can't see its potential for brokenness in Modern, not to mention the fact that ~2 Blue decks are tier 1.
Also agreed about BBE. She's one of the weakest cards on the list but Wizards didn't have any reason to unban her when Jund was on top; now they do. Is BBE+AV really much of a threat?
Eldrazi and Shadow pieces should be completely fine for now, unless Wizards wants to do some more shakin'.
Stores, not people. What better way to get rid of piles of recently rotated bulk cards than to come up with some unnecessary new format and hail it as the best thing since toilet seats? Now that Standard is dropping in popularity they need to ditch their garbage somehow. I'm glad this blatant cash-grab is failing miserably.
Ding ding ding. It's no coincidence that the vast majority of frontier talk/shilling comes from Youtube channels that just so happen to be sponsored by companies who are titans of the secondary market. I'm also sure that it's pure chance that this nonsense only gets brought up around rotation time...
Yeah Spine I think you missed the latest doomsaying period by a couple months. Although I'm sure there will be another one before too long.
I think RG Vengvine (and its price) isn't going anywhere unless it fails to perform and is subsequently abandoned.
Except Thoughtseize can be a terrible topdeck and GSZ is great at any point in the game in decks that would play it, plus it's a tutor.
I don't see it coming off.
But then again I'm not the brightest tool in the shed.
check below for my simple yet admittedly brilliant solution to all of life's problems!
no no no no
You clearly have it backwards and you have insulted the various midrange deities.
As penance, you shall print up some cheap nonbasic land hate, chop chop!
(or if you could get Eldrazi Temple banned that would be great, but they understand that miracles aren't your department)
Just leave it on the collection plate when you're done.
UW Control does run it occasionally. It's a cheap and powerful (if rather slow) card with only one printing and the only other card with a comparable effect is on the Reserved List.
I agree with Sheridan that as long as one Blue-based Control deck is doing well, no action is necessary. If UW and Jeskai both start to preform poorly, though, I can definitely see unbanning SFM or potentially even Jace.
Second. Assuming he wants to do so, of course.
Also I agree with Pokken: 8% win/loss seems like it's enough to warrant a more balanced system such as the ones they were talking about above.
OH ***** BEEBLES!
I'll show myself out.
Agreed about Dig. I see Jace coming off the banlist before it does. I don't understand how people can't see its potential for brokenness in Modern, not to mention the fact that ~2 Blue decks are tier 1.
Also agreed about BBE. She's one of the weakest cards on the list but Wizards didn't have any reason to unban her when Jund was on top; now they do. Is BBE+AV really much of a threat?
Eldrazi and Shadow pieces should be completely fine for now, unless Wizards wants to do some more shakin'.
or maybe this is another one of my ether-induced hallucinations.
It's clearly coincidence...
You can go about your business...
Move along...