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Magic Market Index for April 20th, 2018
 
Pauper Review: Dominaria
 
The Limited Archetypes of Dominaria
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Trade Evaluation -- Pile A versus B
    Quote from drakeavril »
    Might as well join with a trade i made to a store

    I traded with the following:

    4 ripjaw raptor
    2 carnage tyrant
    2 rhonas the indomitable
    1 scavenger grounds (foil)
    1 vraska, relic seeker
    4 regisaur alpha
    plus $120 store credit

    for

    1 tropical island (MP revised)

    I gave up on dinosaurs after realizing it just falls apart to control and I have UW auras deck that I won a pptq with that I will use for the rptq.

    This looks more like a humble brag post than a trade. As far as long term value goes this is a no brainer on which one I would prefer to have. In 18 months this will be the equivalent of trading $130 or $140 (mostly store credit - not cash) for an MP trop.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
  • posted a message on The Legacy Price Discussion Thread
    Quote from Joban8 »
    Quote from Kryptnyt »
    So Back to Basics, despite not being on the reserved list, has not seen a reprint, and now has risen to a much higher price than before. I'm honestly kind of surprised it's dodged so many masters sets while Blood Moon gets reprinted constantly. I'd say get rid of them at the current price for sure, what do you guys think?


    I'd agree, if anyone has copies then now is the time to sell. Blood Moon has gotten three Masters printings thus far, but only one of those was in a non-Modern set. With WotC's announcement regarding the future of Masters sets, I'd expect to see Back to Basics sooner than later; the last two Masters sets combined have contained quite a few reprints of cards with price tags that were inflated due to scarcity more so than demand. It's an inclusion that would boost the perceived EV of a box prior to release and then drop back down to a <$15 card afterwards.


    While I agree in general with the statement, why would you want to sell right now? There isn't another Masters set on the horizon and you have all of 2018 and some portion of 2019 before it stands a reasonable shot at a reprint.

    Is sitting on a copy (I think I have one somewhere) for a few months a worthwhile decision?
    Posted in: Market Street Café
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    How much do you guys think that Gemstone Caverns will settle at? I wanted to spec on this card years ago, buying a playset for $6 and 3 foils for $6 each. Then the card spiked to $5 with foils at over $20, which kept me from buying literally HUNDREDS of this underestimated card. Now it seems that someone else bought it out at the already higher price...

    Probably $15 and $40, right? At least until a reprint.


    Agreed on Tronix' statement. However, it's such a unique effect that I think the top end is closer to $20 or $25 for the non foil.

    Of course if the Eldrazi deck goes nuts and wins a GP or something then all bets are off.

    The other thing that will inflate its price is that it was in Time Spiral.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Is anyone going to gamble and buy a box of masters 25?
    I anticipate boxes of M25 will continue to fall a month after release. You will probably be able to pick boxes up for sub $150 pricing. I'm hoping it gets to the $130 or so range. At that point I'll load up and buy a 4 or 5 boxes. Maybe more. I'm at 9 boxes of Iconic Masters now ($120 / box all day long!)

    The masters sets are usually a blast to draft and I'm getting prepared to do a massive Masters chaos draft (MM 15, MM 17, IMA, EMA, M25) Unfortunately I don't have any MM 13 or I'd have added them to the list.

    Back to your original question JDM, I think your purchase decision will be based more on price. Like I said, M25 will probably be much cheaper in a month while MM17 will probably be worth about the same as it is now. MM17 is probably $240 / box and M25 can be had for as low as $160.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from BlueTronFTW »
    I don't think anyone is arguing for LOTV to become $5. WOTC is very conservative about reprints. I think they could afford to try, TRY scaling things up and seeing what happens. The only high price card I see that's not only dropped substantially but not recovered was goblin guide due to being rare. That's a great argument for ending the mythic rarity in reprint sets entirely. Hell, even if they didn't change print runs but just made all mythics rare and some rares uncommon (that stupid tree) we'd probably all be happy.


    Actually Bluetron, what started this whole sidetracked conversation was Colt47 proposing JUST this, then ThatMarkGuy commenting immediately after that saying this was a good idea.

    Quote from Colt47 »
    The primary issue WoTC has had is just not printing cards in a way that brings down the prices effectively for people playing the format. The masters series is more so for the company to make money on the higher secondary market prices of the cards and any price drops that do happen on certain cards are more like temporary sales, especially when it's a mythic. It's probably time to have a set that brings the prices down in modern, but I doubt wizards will ever make it.

    I know I'm definitely saying something that people will find controversial, but Chronicles was probably the best thing to happen to Magic the Gathering (and the other things that happened in reaction to it the worst things). If that set was never printed it's pretty likely no one would be here today talking about MtG. Before that set was printed, all sets were done by X number of cards and that was it, so it made getting packs of a new set basically a game of who could rush to the store first before the packs were gone. I remember that Legends barely had time to exist on store shelves and it was easier to find Antiquities and The Dark at the time, which was still a shot in the literal dark if one could even find a pack of those.

    When Chronicles came out, it was like a miracle: people could finally get a hold of a lot of the cards that were in those past limited run sets. The game suddenly got way more affordable and I could finally get a hold of cards like Hell's Caretaker and Revelation, etc. Then the collectors went nuts and Wizards created the reserved list.

    Right now there does need to be a Chronicles for Modern so that WoTC can go back to dealing with standard again and leave the 100% reprint sets off the table for a while. Not saying this has to take the form of a booster box, but collector tins and other options can be used to not over print the socks off of lower demand cards.


    This is why so many of us are replying and saying this is a bad idea.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on You shouldn't buy Master 25
    Here is a random thought - the MSRP of a regular booster pack is $3.99 with a booster retail of $143.64. However, nobody pays full retail for these booster boxes. You can easily find boxes of the latest set for $90, and if you look carefully you can typically find them for as low as $80. If the set is a real stinker, you can occasionally find them for as low as $70.

    At $90 - that is a 38% discount off retail
    At $80 - that is a 45% discount off retail
    At $70 - that is a 52% discount off retail

    I'm curious as to why the Modern Masters boosters are being held to their retail $9.99 price point. Iconic Masters can be had easily for $150, and we've seen them as low as $120.

    At $150 - that is a 38% discount off retail
    At $120 - that is a 50% discount off retail

    It seems that these new masters sets are trending more closely to what we are seeing from standard booster boxes. Isn't this a good thing? I would think smart people will take a look at the product and decide a price point they will buy in. To me a 50% discount is very tempting for IMA. with M25, it wouldn't surprise me if we reached a similar price point. I agree with everyone that if you're paying $240 for M25 its a horrible product to buy, but at $150? $120?

    If we're talking about pre-order pricing, we can make the same inference as to pre-ordering singles. They are almost always wildly inflated and tank immediately after the set releases. Very rarely do you get the best price by pre-ordering.

    Am I missing something here?
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from thatmarkguy »
    Quote from sealteamfive »
    The reason that Chronicles was such a problem was that it eroded people's confidence that there would be value in the cards they collected. We see the same thing in the stock market. If you absolutely destroy the value of some cards similar to Chronicles it can easily spiral out of control and devalue everything. See - Black Friday. I'm not saying it would happen, I'm saying it COULD happen. When you're running a business why take a chance that could crater the entire game?


    But the strange thing is... they were already doing that with 'core set' reprints even before and after Chronicles. It was never clear to me why players had this expectation that their hoarded scarce cards wouldn't get mass-devalued by reprints *when every single Core set was adding reprints of formerly expansion-only-scarce cards anyway*. Revised, 4th, 5th... put white-bordered reprints of formerly expansion-only cards into heavy supply as well. Imagine where Land Tax and Sylvan Library would be now if they weren't put in 4e and their sole printing remained their Legends one, if their supply never exceeded that of Mana Drain? At the time there was already some cachet in owning the black-bordered versions of cards, and Chronicles continued on the same assumption that *worked* in Revised and 4e - that they could do reprints but the fact that the reprinted cards would be instantly understood to be 'not the first edition' by virtue of black border would be enough to keep the early-buyer collectors happy because their first printings would still hold value because of their black borders. In the comic book world (which was going through its own armageddon for different reasons), the printing of 2nd and 3rd editions didn't really damage the value of the 1st edition early buyers' holding because there was assumed to be an inherent relevance to the first printing that no reprint could ever touch.

    This eventually proved a false parallel because, as the game grew, more and more players who started with Revised and 4e had already come to accept that they were going to be playing some white bordered cards anyway. They just wanted to play, and didn't care if the cards were black bordered or white as long as they could play. So the original black border printings weren't able to hold the same demand and premium anymore as the market got flooded with the cards that had been assumed wouldn't damage their value, but a new generation of players didn't follow the expected collector model of observing the relevance of first printings.

    But Colt is right - if not for that generation of players? If they were chased out because they couldn't get any of the cards they wanted because early adopters hoarded them and made them unattainable and 'a no reprint sets' attitude never made them available? That generation stops playing, and we're not here still playing Magic today.


    In general I agree with your assessments, particularly about the comic books - and you can throw baseball cards into that category as well.

    The only point I disagree with is Colt's point. That generation of players? Sorry, I brought a bunch of friends in to play around 95/96. All of the moxes were already $100 and unattainable, and far far more cards that I couldn't afford. There were still plenty of lower cost cards to play with. People weren't quitting because they couldn't afford to have a deck full of ABU / Legends / Arabian Nights cards. My $15 Shivan Dragons were all the rage, and could be opened in any revised booster.

    The concern with the Masters sets and Chronicles is that they are reprint only sets with the sole purpose of adding supply and lowering cost of those cards. The Core sets had the intent of getting people into the game, and the Land Tax / Sylvan Library inclusions where the exception, not the norm. Perhaps I wasn't stating my position clearly. I think that the reprint sets are healthy for the game by keeping prices of cards affordable. Where I draw the line is completely crashing the cards value to worthlessness. In that respect I believe that the Iconic Masters and likely Masters 25 will do a good job. They are going to deflate the value of cards by adding significant supply into the market without completely destroying their value.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from thatmarkguy »

    I was around then. Chronicles hardly reprinted anything of tournament relevance, with a select few exceptions (City of Brass, Blood Moon, Ernham Djinn, some sparing use of Concordant Crossroads). Mainly what Chronicles reprinted and that collectors got up in arms about were Timmy-wow-factor garbage - the Elder Dragon Legends and other legends like Dakkon and Solkanar and Nebuchadnezzar that were just like the Imperial Recruiter of today - valuable only because of low circulation rather than actual demand or utility. Chronicles very much didn't flood the market with tournament-level staples. All those Arabian/Antiquities/Legends lands (the good ones!), Maze of Ith, Mana Drain, Juzam Djinn, were all left out of the reprints.


    you are correct in that there weren't a lot of tournament staples. FYI - I played a ton back then as well so I have a significant personal history on this one. The tournament scene you speak of was virtually non-existent back then compared to today. The internet and net-decking didn't exist and most people played home brews. Tournament staples as we know it didn't exist. Most people played casual games and multiplayer. That Timmy-wow-factor garbage you speak of was what the overwhelming majority of players wanted and were among the most highly sought after cards in the set. Another note here is that the concept of EV hadn't been thought out yet.

    I also agree that their price was propped up by the notoriously low supply. That's why Nicol Bolas was worth $50 before chronicles, and the sheer overprinting made it worth less than $1. I speak from experience on that one as I had purchased one a few months before.

    The reason that Chronicles was such a problem was that it eroded people's confidence that there would be value in the cards they collected. We see the same thing in the stock market. If you absolutely destroy the value of some cards similar to Chronicles it can easily spiral out of control and devalue everything. See - Black Friday. I'm not saying it would happen, I'm saying it COULD happen. When you're running a business why take a chance that could crater the entire game?

    Wizards is taking a more modest approach. We are seeing cards take 50 to 75% hits for stuff that had virtually no supply. Horizon Canopy went from $80 to $30. Mana Drain went from $150 to $50. Given the ridiculously low supply of Mana Drain and others, this was to be expected. There is, however, a marked difference in going from $150 to $50 than from $50 to $1 (valueless) in a reprint set.

    One last point before I move on - Every post I see in regards to the pricing of the Masters sets complains about the $10 price tag and the "value" of the cards not even being close. Let me ask this - people have such a problem when the EV of a masters pack is $5 and have to pay $10 (Iconic Masters, which is widely thought to be a failure, even though the EV was above $250 before the set came out). How would it be if it were reprinted to chronicles levels and the EV was $0.10 for that $10 pack? How about if you paid $5 for that $0.10 EV? $3? $1? The reason I bring this up is that the Chronicles packs were relatively inexpensive - $2 IIRC, but toward the end nobody bought them because they knew that the cards inside were worthless. Similar to what we saw with Fallen Empires and Homelands.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from thatmarkguy »
    They’ve already done some of that in Conspiracy though, and I’ll bet they’ll do it again in Battlebond. Conspiracy sets were normal priced boosters without print-run-shorting, and draft focused sets, that included a great many reprints, even including modern staples like Inquisution of Kozilek and Serum Visions as well as eternal darlings like Berserk and Brainstorm. And yet magic survived.


    If you can't understand the difference between Chronicles and Conspiracy in terms of the cards they reprinted and the sheer levels to which it was tanked, I cannot help you.

    Needless to say I disagree with reprinting cards into the ground and ruining the value of cards.

    This is straying into a reserve list discussion and is off topic for this thread. I'll drop it and get back to the topic at hand -

    I am very excited to pick up some chalices as they are the last cards I need for eldrazi. Anyone have an idea where they will bottom out in price? $40?
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Masters 25
    Quote from Colt47 »
    What I think happened is that WoTC wanted to figure out a way to reprint commander and old casual cards outside of a commander set and figured they could use the masters series to do it. The only trouble with this is that the demand on commander staples is very different from demand on modern staples. People need 4x Mox Opal in both lantern control and artifact rush, where as commander players only need one Animar, Soul of the Elements or Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite. When the cards do get reprinted their prices tank and then don't bounce back until maybe two years later. It's for that reason that it is totally plausible to reprint things like the aformentioned commander staples in a normal draft set like battle bond even if the price seems a bit high.


    Unfortunately this is true. SaffronOlive hit on this point earlier, but in a slightly different take.
    https://www.mtggoldfish.com/articles/not-all-reprints-are-created-equal

    His point is more that reprints of ultra-low supply cards will crater prices that are propped up by their rarity (think ABU, Portal 3 kingdoms type rarity) versus relatively high demand high price cards (Goyf, Lili, fetches, etc) which will just deflate a little.

    I think Wizards will adapt from the poor showing that Iconic Masters was and that Masters 25 likely will be, such that the next set will probably have a better mix that stands up to the value proposition.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from idSurge »
    There is literally zero need for them to create a 'Chronicles' set, crater the prices of the Modern staples, alienate ton's of people, piss of even more, and 'destroy' the secondary market (and those shops that depend on it, both on and off line) just so they can 'go back to dealing with Standard'.

    Its not like they are putting R&D capital into these Masters sets.

    I say that as someone who just got their Bonus for the year, and is looking to buy 1 more Modern deck to go with my UWR Control, and I'm not pleased with some of the prices for relatively recent cards.


    Couldn't agree more. As for Colt - those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Miscut, Misprint, Foreign, Foil &Other Oddities Price Thread.
    Quote from KnickM »
    I'm just curious of what this could possibly fetch I Have A Sliver Overlord from The Scourge expansion foil that has been caught in the stamp that seals the booster packs so it has a ribbed Edge at the top I will be sending a picture soon.... ok not sure how to post pics

    A crimped pack foil from Scourge? Could be a lot.

    Are you posting from mobile or desktop? Attachments are much easier from desktop.


    The market for crimped cards is pretty small. However those who collect it will pay crazy money sometimes. This has a ton going for it - it's a rare foil from a minimally opened set, it's in a tribe that people love, and it's crimped. Finding a price for it would be very difficult... Best place to ask would be:

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/MTGmisprints/

    These guys would probably love it. If you're looking to sell it they'd help as well. likely best to do an auction for something like this. I'd imagine it'll easily eclipse triple digits.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
  • posted a message on Prerelease cards - your opinions?
    I think that anything sealed will go up in value over time... This is especially true if Wizards for whatever reason stops putting prerelease foils with date stamps on them. Who knows what the future will bring with that.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
  • posted a message on Legends booster pack collation error - 3 extra rares
    Quote from cml73264 »
    Old packaging was full of errors such as this. I heard of an Alpha or Beta starter that was opened (think it was a video I saw) that was basically the same thing. It was all rares and basic lands instead of the normal distribution and the usual 3 rares. Quality control and the methods for packing just were not the same as today. Believe it or not Wizards has gotten better at at least a couple things along the way.


    Actually back then the starter decks only had 2 rares.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on "Selling a whole collection" thread
    Quote from KnickM »
    The reason I need a large sum at once is because I have no time - I am literally in my car homeless with no posessions if I cant come up with the cash to move into another place - an undertaking that is very costly.

    I think Im going to put it up on eBay tonight under a new account so if it sells for $1k I my feedback wont get dinged when I obviously dont follow through. I'll explain as much and being that I will only sell this collection face to face, money exchanged in person after whomever is satisfied that the collection is as stated with regard to condition and everything listed in included, my lack of feedback shouldnt hurt. I figure the people with the means to buy this probably factor in travel expenses if necessary when assessing what theyre willing to pay.

    I was expecting I could get around $5-6k. We shall see. If eBay doesnt work out, I may see if one of the more popular LGS in thr area has any interest. Im just hoping my desperation isnt immediately obvious.
    Get a quote from your LGS first. Get a couple quotes, if you're in range of several stores. Then, if you still want to try the eBay route, I'd set a reserve at 115% of the highest quote - that lets you recoup the eBay and PayPal fees. But for a new account, they may hold the money for a little bit. If you truly need the money this week, I'd say LGS-it up.

    Best of luck; let us know how it works out.


    One other thing you may want to consider doing is go onto the facebook MTG page. It'll take a day or so to get yourself admitted in but having spent a significant amount of time there, you will find that several moderate to large store fronts have people with accounts on there. For Example, Joe Steet is a representative of Dave & Adam's Card World out of New York. If you post information about an entire collection you may get a hit or two there. I will also echo what KnickM said. They'll likely make an offer that is 50% of TCG low. You may be able to negotiate a bit on that, but more importantly you'll be able to find more store fronts quickly that way.

    Barring that, I'd also hit up Star City Games, Channel Fireball, Coolstuffinc, Troll and Toad, etc and see if you can get an offer for what you've got. It'd be worth the effort.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
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