Wouldn't the Catacombs be more important than the Strands? Strands can fetch four of your lands, where Catacombs can fetch five (assuming you're running two Blood Crypts and one Steam Vents). Even still I would suggest 2/2 split on Catacombs and Strands if no Tarns are available.
EDIT: Maybe even 2/1 in favor of Catacombs with an extra Watery Grave instead of the 12th fetch?
My suggestion means 9 Fetches to get basic Swamp and 7 that gets basic Island. Not taking the already present fetches into account, then I'd absolutely go for the black ones, but being able to fetch up basic Island can be very important when facing a Blood Moon on the stack. I'd be hesitant to replace a fetchland with a shockland in this deck personally, but I guess that could also be something to explore.
I agree, I'd rather have a 1-of TBR in the main than SB. Also, I haven't ever experienced an opponent baiting it against me, so the 2-for-1 risk is significantly lower than I've been fearing. If they have removal, they tend to use it either EOT or before I connect to play around Stubborn Denial and damage taken respectively.
Edit: The discard argument is valid, and something to keep in mind. However, it goes both ways, we can check to see if the route is clear via our own discard before TBR:ing. That said, and like I stated earlier, I'm constantly evaluating the card and consider it a highly meta-dependent choice.
Edit2: I agree that TBR does share some similarities with Lightning Bolt in how it manages to be both ubiquitous and limited at the same time.
Hey guys, new to the deck here, just got the last couple of Snapcasters I needed for it.
I have one question about the manabase though: I don't have access to any number of Scalding Tarns at the moment; what's the best combination of fetch/shocklands to replace it? I have at my disposal 4x each of Deltas, Flooded Strands, Bloodstained Mires and Verdant Catacombs, as well as any number of shocklands. Thanks!
I'd start out with 4x Deltas, 4x Mires, 1x Catacombs and 3x Flooded Strand to try and maintain a decent amount of blue fetchlands to cover my bases against a Blood Moon.
I've had good success with TBR:ing our delve guys, so I would disagree that it depends on DS being in play.
There is an inherent risk to the card, being 2 for 1'd is a legitimate concern. I tend to board out my TBR against decks where this is likely to happen, unless they also run a card like Lingering Souls. I'm constantly reassessing the card on the basis of not many top players using it in Grixis Shadow, but so far it's been well worth its salt.
Rakdos Charm has served me well. I've been experimenting with it for some time now, and been reluctant to remove it from my SB even when I'm going for a more spike list. The fact that it works best against two of our tougher matchups, while also acting as a very good combat trick since the burn mode is symmetrical makes it very flexible. The only downside so far is that the modes can feel a bit underwhelming at times, and against Dredge a single exile of the yard might not cut it.
So I've been picking up the habit of boarding out one of my fetchlands when I'm on the draw, since the extra draw step does matter and the deck already digs pretty well with Serum Visions (which could be considered something like 0.25 of a land). So far I haven't been punished for it, and I feel like it opens up my options while going to the board somewhat. The percentages involved aren't huge, but I like being able to board with more confidence and being less worried about diluting my decks main gameplan.
I guess I'm not explaining my line well enough. Please note that this is a specific fringe case where you are holding both a counter and a Surgical, since the spell needs to not resolve for this to work. I'll try to explain it better step by step.
1. They cast Past in Flames
2. You crack a fetch land, hold priority and cast Stubborn Denial on PiF.
3. PiF is countered and goes to the graveyard.
4. With the fetch ability still on the stack, you cast Surgical Extraction on Past in Flames.
Since everything from step 2 onwards happens in response to the fetch, they can't flashback PiF.
They can't cast the back half of the card with the fetch ability on the stack. That gives you time to surgical it before it leaves the yard.
So yes, it is very relevant to crack a fetch. Of course, other things can be used aswell (cycling a Street Wraith, casting an instant etc). The important thing is to not leave the stack empty.
Just a thing to consider against Storm: Keep an uncracked fetch at the ready. If they go for Past in Flames with mana up for the flashback you can crack a fetch, and with the fetch ability on the stack, counter the PiF and then surgical it from the yard. Since there is an ability on the stack for the duration, they can't flash it back since it's a Sorcery (one requirement for casting a Sorcery is that the stack must be empty).
The thing is, Leyline of the Void doesn't exile the grave on ETB, it just stops new things from hitting the yard. This means a lategame Leyline is borderline useless. Running it as a one-off, means this will happen a lot. Also, try to tap out on T4 against Dredge to put it into play, and losing on T5 is pretty much a guarantee.
If you want to run a one-off grave hate card, I'd go with Nihil Spellbomb.
My suggestion means 9 Fetches to get basic Swamp and 7 that gets basic Island. Not taking the already present fetches into account, then I'd absolutely go for the black ones, but being able to fetch up basic Island can be very important when facing a Blood Moon on the stack. I'd be hesitant to replace a fetchland with a shockland in this deck personally, but I guess that could also be something to explore.
Edit: The discard argument is valid, and something to keep in mind. However, it goes both ways, we can check to see if the route is clear via our own discard before TBR:ing. That said, and like I stated earlier, I'm constantly evaluating the card and consider it a highly meta-dependent choice.
Edit2: I agree that TBR does share some similarities with Lightning Bolt in how it manages to be both ubiquitous and limited at the same time.
I'd start out with 4x Deltas, 4x Mires, 1x Catacombs and 3x Flooded Strand to try and maintain a decent amount of blue fetchlands to cover my bases against a Blood Moon.
There is an inherent risk to the card, being 2 for 1'd is a legitimate concern. I tend to board out my TBR against decks where this is likely to happen, unless they also run a card like Lingering Souls. I'm constantly reassessing the card on the basis of not many top players using it in Grixis Shadow, but so far it's been well worth its salt.
(I started experimenting with this after reading Frank Karstens latest article over on Channel Fireball: https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/how-many-lands-do-you-need-to-consistently-hit-your-land-drops/ )
1. They cast Past in Flames
2. You crack a fetch land, hold priority and cast Stubborn Denial on PiF.
3. PiF is countered and goes to the graveyard.
4. With the fetch ability still on the stack, you cast Surgical Extraction on Past in Flames.
Since everything from step 2 onwards happens in response to the fetch, they can't flashback PiF.
So yes, it is very relevant to crack a fetch. Of course, other things can be used aswell (cycling a Street Wraith, casting an instant etc). The important thing is to not leave the stack empty.
Granted, it is a fringe interaction, but I guess it wouldn't hurt to keep it in mind.
I'd much rather run a Grafdiggers Cage if Nihil Spellbomb isn't enough, even though it reduces the utility of my Snapcaster Mages.
If you want to run a one-off grave hate card, I'd go with Nihil Spellbomb.
Yeah, lets leave Bob by the wayside and carry on...