MTG Salvation

Well, UW Control is starting to become more popular. Both versions of that deck play land disruption, which is a big issue. The Flash version is actually pretty fragile to Hydra, but you can't out-slug the Titan build, but Wave would beat that. I don't know that it's an SB choice (I'd rather grab something like Choke to kill permission), but it certainly is a metagame call.

In 9 out of 10 games I played where Genesis Wave hit, I either won outright OR I lacked enough haste power somehow and got Wrathed (and sometimes bounced back anyway, the deck is really resilient). Wave is immensely powerful. I'm glad people prevailed on me to get the Hydras because there are other builds that will definitely use them, and this deck can be retooled lots of ways. Still, by default, I want to play Wave, because it just feels more fun and in most situations it's more powerful.

That said, I'm now caught in a trap of coolness: I'm trying to run a "Traditional" list plus "Toolbox," which is causing some cramping. I'm definitely running fewer than the preferred number of Titans, but I'm okay with that: I think the strength of Commands and the toolbox creatures make up the difference. Craterhoof needs to be fitted in. I'm already at 19 land and pulled the marginal Abundant Growths for tool-creatures: this weakens the reliability of Kessig and the power of Waves. I'd like to get another Stomping Ground and Kessig in, but I don't see room to cut much of anything at this point. I guess the Ooze and Thrun could move to the SB. Definitely not pulling either Sabertooth (perma-lock, refresh a too-early-Craterhoof, refresh Polukranos) or Hornet Queen (instant air-force that wins with Garruk).

Actually, in my musing, I think I just realized why the toolbox builds with Hydra do so well: Hydra is mediocre overall, but great versus countermagic. Pact is pretty bad versus countermagic, but fetching up a Hornet Queen with an active Garruk is at most 1-turn slower than a massive chain-Wave. They complement each other.

This is going to be another one of those long analysis posts, since everyone seems to like them.

Analysis 1: Which card is the best “tutor” of the following three: Primal Command (the most traditional), Chord of Calling (a venerable option that has fallen out of favor but recently returned to the fore), and Summoner’s Pact (the recent favorite).

Warning: This answer is theoretical, non-mathematical, and longwinded.

I strongly believe Chord represents the best straight-tutoring effect. The most important reason is one of the least discussed: it is an Instant. Being able to get the creature when you want to, or when your opponent is least ready for it, is an immense advantage. As a blue-mage at heart, I’m not only partial to doing stuff at the end of my opponent’s turn, but I also know firsthand how much it messes up my calculations when I have to worry it will be done to me. You can Chord EoT and, if countered, follow up with a strong effect from in-hand on your turn. It also forces them to counter blindly: they have no idea what you’ll fetch up, but it needs to be countered regardless, where as with most other tutors, they can simply wait to see what you get before making a decision (with a few exceptions, like Pact for Thrun). This makes a large Chord a must-counter (something that Pact is not). Not only that, but you can dodge sorcery-speed removal: when your opponent casts Wrath of God you can simply respond by floating a bunch of mana, and casting Chord after it resolves to get something to kill the opponent on the next attack (like Hornet Queen, with your loyalty-4 Garruk). Additionally, the ability to use it on the opponent’s EoT makes Convoke actually useful, since you can leave your creatures free to block, then tap them to help cover the cost, plus it is the overall cheapest of the bunch to cast. The last advantage is that it doesn’t care about the colored mana cost of what you get: something that rarely matters but can be handy when you can’t find a red source but need to land a Dragonlord Atarka.

Pact’s main advantage is that it costs no mana up-front. This potentially means you can use it to find an accelerator early or power into a good spell ahead of the other tutors. It is also an Instant, but you will pretty much never be able to benefit from that (you’re going to cast the creature you get on your own turn, so casting it EoT just forces you to pay the cost and play the creature in the same turn). It’s the weakest versus permission since it’s not a “must counter” and disadvantages you regardless of if they counter whatever you search up. Plus, it will occasionally choke your mana or cause you lose games to simple mistakes. Still, this is the option with the most potential for early impact (especially with early mana accelerators), and it’s very strong regardless.

Command is the worst of the tutoring effects, hands down. It costs more than its counterparts with no cost mitigation. It’s a flat out Sorcery, so there is no chance of trickery here. That said, it is arguably the most versatile and powerful effect, and that is why I use it. It can gain life in a pinch, answer graveyards, or shuffle away a troublesome permanent. Most significantly, it’s almost an alternate win-condition itself: with a few Eternal Witnesses in the library, it becomes a temporary lock, with a Temur Sabertooth as well, it becomes a hard lock. This makes it almost a must-counter as well.

tl;dr version: Chord is the best tutor overall largely on the back of being truly an Instant, Pact is weaker but much faster and potentially explosive, and Command is a bad tutor but has enough upside to be great in certain builds.





Analysis 2: Now, which is more likely to win games: Genesis Wave or Genesis Hydra?

Warning: this analysis will be filled with bad math and haphazard assumptions that just happens to be “good enough” for a reasonable approximation. Why? Because I’m analyzing one deck, making very poor assumptions about what does and doesn’t lead to victory, and I’m not being statistically rigorous by analyzing all the conditional probabilities (instead approximating using two independent probabilities, which can be close sometimes but not always). I’m doing it this way because the other way would take way more time than any non-professional magic player or statistician should spend on it.

First, we’ll assume I’m playing the build from earlier:

We’ll make the Wave deck -4 Hydra, -1 Hornet Queen, +4 Wave, +1 Craterhoof. It’s not really ideal, but it’s close enough.

Let’s also make the assumption that it’s always turn 4, we’re on the play, and we have enough forests and Nykthos to get some arbitrary amount of devotion. We’re also assuming we haven’t mulligained, cast Oath, or anything to complicate matters. We also have a Hydra or Wave in hand, as appropriate.

So what’s the test? Well, playing either Hydra or Wave will strengthen our board. While that’s nice and all, isn’t it much more fun to find something that will end the game with a satisfying thud? Our condition is finding something to win either this or next turn!

First, Hydra. What pretty much gives us a direct path to a win if we find it? Well, Hornet Queen (probable kill with a Garruk), Primeval Titan (probable kill with Nykthos + Kessig), Polukranos (probable sweep). Thrun or Ooze might work sometimes, but often they’re not the most relevant or dominating. These are really the only cards that by themselves can threaten a win, almost instantly, regardless of board state.

I did the math (well, no, I used a lot of very sloppy approximations, but anyway), around 9 mana (the minimum to hit Hornet Queen) your odds are in the ballpark of 37%, at 12 mana 50%, and 20 mana for 75%. This surprised me as it was really low, and I’ll get to that later.

What about Wave? Well, first off, Wave can get anything Hydra gets, at 1 more mana. While it doesn’t provide a body, it does provide a lot of land as well as EVERY body it finds. But much more interestingly, it can chain. I ran the numbers based on the assumed need to find a Witness + Garruk/Nykthos to chain, or that one already had a Witness/Command and just needed to find Garruk/Nykthos. Those looked more like 47%, 63%, and 89% at the same mana levels.

So, what’s the takeaway? Honestly, I don’t know if it’s anything practical, but if my estimates are anything near reality, they indicate that in any situation where you’re looking to finish a game with Hydra, the same amount of mana gives you a much higher chance of chaining Waves, plus even if you fail you will get a lot better stuff. Included in these things is land, which matters: Hydra cannot get you a missing Nykthos or Kessig, while a weak 8-mana wave powered by Garruk, Elves, and Sprawls can.

More likely, it also tells me something about how I am building or playing Hydra in my decks, and that is to say I may be doing it wrong. Hydra is definitely better against countermagic and it’s nice to find with Oath, and it’s certainly better at the 5-8 mana level. But if we want to look at it as a good mana sink or closer, we are probably encouraged to look at playing more threats and fewer tutors and niche creatures, instead adding threats in the range we’d like to get. For instance, if I dropped commands and replaced them with 2 Titans and another Polukranos, my odds of finding one of those key threats at 9 mana (X=9) go from 37% to 61%.

tl;dr: In the current builds, Genesis Wave is probably better than Genesis Hydra [in the absence of countermagic], and Hydra decks need a higher threat density (at the expense of utility) to take advantage of the slight relative mana-savings.

Gideon's Lawkeeper ties up mana we want to be using on our 2- and 3-drops, or to cast Verdict.

Archangel of Tithes is pretty good, though if I'm gonna play a 4 mana card to mess up an attack, there are other options (Worship for one). Also, WWW can be inconsistent.

Hibernation and Hurkyl's Recall are both really good, if highly specific.

Story Circle is, sadly, weak. It does nothing against Eldrazi or Affinity. It's too much mana to be good versus Elves or Merfolk. There are better options against burn.

The Knight is weak. The Captain is... interesting, especially with Wall of Omens. I'm not sure it's good enough. Kami of False Hope (and Children of Korlis I like better. Loyal Sentry isn't bad either. These all work best vs Eldrazi and Affinity, since they have less removal. Still, I'm not sure that blockers are something we lack for in general.

Yeah, thinking about it after, I realized it's not so good versus Elves since they may have enough mana. Still strong against Merfolk and Eldrazi (usually buys a few turns, and that's all we need). Affinity seems to have its largest issue in Cranial Plating, not in any one creature, so Prison is probably just as ineffectual as Dismember. Verdicts and the like are best, and I think we could easily play a total of 4 Verdict and 2 Wrath and feel pretty good about it. No one bounces back from those effects better than us (and, well, Living End).

You know, Worship is pretty good, but 4 mana is a lot and doesn't recur with Sun Titan. There is a 3 mana option, though, that fills either a removal or damage prevention slot: Pariah. I think I might want to try two copies. At worst, they either lose a removal spell or turn, plus a creature. At best, stalls a while. Plus, it can be recurred with Sun Titan.

Edit: Added a card tag.

Ghostly Prison?

CoC/Pact make for great toolbox SB possibilities, though I'm not sure creatures solve our biggest issues right now. Good lists, though. Really interesting. It probably works best for the Curio builds as it allows them to convert, and maybe Wave or T&N builds too. Those that already ARE toolboxes, well, they have many of their best tools in their MD.

Though, seriously, keep Primeval Titan in there. Kessig is such a great finisher that you want to be able to tutor it up.

Gm13p:
That list, honestly, does not feel at all like a Green devotion list. It lacks anything with a Devotion mechanic (including Nykthos). It feel like a different take on GR ramp/mid-range, emphasizing mana-disruption in place of burn. Still, it's a strong list. Probably gets crushed by Eldrazi, as the disruption is too late, but amply preys upon a lot of the anti-Eldrazi decks like UW Control.

Actually, that would explain a lot. Both Thrun and Stormbreath are immune to PtE. It's probably strictly a reaction to UW.

Hydra being good doesn't make Chord worse. They do different things: Hydra provides uncounterable dig and value, but Chord is a true tutor. Yeah, sometimes Hydra will do as well as Chord, but that means playing 4 copies of anything you want to hit with an X>8 Hydra. They really don't interact or have synergy, but they don't actively undermine each other either.

Only snag with the new Linvala is that at 4WW, there's a lot I'd rather get than 5/5 with a conditional bonus of 5 life and/or 3/3. I'd max out on Sun Titans and Wurmcoil Engines before I really considered adding Linvala.

Shogun1987:
As said, those matchups suck. Everyone is running maindeck mana denial to hit Eldrazi and the reactive control decks, and it hits us too. Pyroclasm seems like an option against those guys, though it isn't all that healthy for our mana-guys. We really need better answers though, because that still doesn't help with anyone else's Ghost Quarters. Awakening zone seems a bit slower than our best other mana options.

JaishivaJai:
Thanks. I was curious, that helps.

Grapefruit21:
Regarding Chord of Calling, I'm not sure. I was never a huge fan, but there's no denying it's good. I guess it probably has to do with a limited number of slots to play tutors in, which means it's more directly competitive with Pact. What's more important: getting it for less mana this turn, or getting it at Instant-speed and better insulated versus countermagic?

Regarding mono-green versus splashing: I think I agree. The mono-green core is more consistent at getting stuff done, but it lacks the sort of hate cards you really want. White is the best color for providing many of those, as well as some good utility like PtE.

Regarding the number of fatties: seems to vary a lot. Mine has the 4 Genesis Hydras, and 1 each of Titan, Queen, and Polukranos. Arguably, that's more than is needed (especially with Primal Commands), but they're all in for a specific reason. Each deck will obviously be different, and there seems to be a lot of flexibility here.

JaishivaJai, CurdBros:

Thanks again, and I'm glad I could help. Garruk is generally stronger than Nissa in most decks, but I'm less sure for rye_guy. She just works so amazingly with Overgrowth and Khalni Hydra, and he's only running 3 Nykthos. Still, probably the right call to get the 4th Garruk and Nykthos in, especially if Overgrowth drops. Despite all the amazing synergies between all of these cards, the deck probably doesn't have room for all of them (though if Overgrowth is dropped, that allows +1 Nykthos and +1 Garruk without removing Nissa).

Khalni Hydra has always looked like a ton of fun. I've always wanted to play it ever since I first saw it in Zendikar's standard. Sadly, I missed the period where it was inexpensive, and I don't think I run enough mana-dorks to really take advantage (though he is great with Nykthos, how much does Nykthos matter if they can't remove Khalni Hydra). An interesting point is that in these days of rampant Ghost Quarters and Spreading Seas, we're going to have to be really thoughtful: the old rule was that Wild Growth on a basic tended to be safer from removal than Llanowar Elves. If that's not true it weakens Garruk and Nissa, but strengthens plays like Khalni Hydra. But then we're even weaker to Wrath of God. Arg, the more I look at this, the more it feels like we're an incidental casualty of Eldrazi's success. We have a solid game against Eldrazi, but most of the best responses to Eldrazi also hurt us.

JaishivaJai: I like that list a lot. Sadly, you can't tutor up Sarkhan Vol, but both he and Craterhoof are good independently and in tandem. As much as I personally don't love walker builds, some like this one look great (and Oath + Hydra/Wave tempt me to run Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker just to get looks of shock and horror out of my opponents). Two questions. First, is 13 Enchantments enough for Eidolon of Blossoms to shine? Second, is there a reason you play Raging Ravine?

rye_guy:

For what it's worth, (I'm kinda new around here), I like it. Your plan A is T&N for Emerakul+Xenagos, and plan B is Ooze/Omnath/Khalni smashing face? Seems like a good plan to me.

I have no major issues with Plan A, save that I might want another copy of Tooth and Nail over Genesis Wave (1x Genesis Wave without Eternal Witnesses is unlikely to be drawn, impossible to chain, and probably worse than a greater chance of T&N for Emerakul+Xenagos).

Regarding plan B: Khalni is the best of the bunch: he hits hard straight off the bat, and adds a TON of Devotion for Nykthos. The others lack trample, which is a serious problem: nothing feels worse than a string of 1/1s balking your titanic monsters. Garruk helps, but he really helps Omnath more (Ooze takes forever to build enough counters for a single trample hit to win). I'd probably look towards more Khalni, or something similar.

Another thing is that you only have one Polukranos and Genesis Hydra. Genesis Hydra is good in any number, it just seems like an odd one-of. Polukranos, though, is another matter. You're not running Summoner's Pact or Primal Command, and if you resolve T&N, you're not looking for Polukranos. Honestly, Polukranos is undercosted, and while it lacks trample, can be turned into a mana sink that kills all the blockers and takes the game in a hurry. It's also extremely inexpensive these days. I'd definitely run more of these guys, they're way better than Omnath or Ooze.

Finally, the current meta is playing a lot of maindeck Ghost Quarter, which is rough on Utopia Sprawl and Overgrowth, so I don't know that I'd want both. I'd also definitely want another Nykthos, given that. I don't think dropping Overgrowth will hurt that much, since you have Mystic and Satyr above and beyond the usual Arbor Elves.

But yeah, I like this. I ran a Wave-deck, and one of the things that always bugged me is that I didn't feel like I have an impressive B-plan. Yours definitely does.

Thanks! I'm glad it helped.

The other analyses asked for can be a bit more complicated, because they're more specific. The thing is that all the things you need to know to get really detailed (how many cards remain in your library, how many of those are a "card you want", and how many cards you get to search) will change turn by turn in every game. The math isn't complicated, but it is tedious, and I don't have the ability to easily do it mid-game. So I use Excel, figure out a very general probability in advance, and create a default rule for use during a game (IE: In general, don't cast Genesis Hydra with less than X=3 unless you're really desperate).


But I can demonstrate the principle for using an Oath to find, say, Nykthos on turn 1. This will show you how to do the calculation.


The same technique works for using Genesis Hydra to find some subset of cards. For my example, I used "Find anything that I can put into play." But, if you wanted to find a subset, you just modify for that.


And that shows you how I look at these problems. As I said, this is not hard per-se, but it is time consuming and I can't do it during a game. But calculating some common occurrences in advance may help guide my game-play.

Incidentally, the math gets a lot harder when you ask, "what are the odds of getting this and that together." It can be done, but while the process I showed is simple (calculate odds of failure for each card, multiply for the odds of total failure, flip to get odds of success), calculating combinations requires basically extrapolating probability for the results of each individual card. It becomes very complex, very fast, and it's even more likely to deviate from the general case than the above (IE: become useless).

Thus, I pretty much only bother to do it for opening hands, if at all. Even in the case of Hydra, the meaningful question during a game is not, "What are the odds I'll get several good choices from this Hydra?" It's "What are the odds I'll get at least good choice from this Hydra?" And that, as I showed, is a much easier question to answer.

Edit: Fixed a mistake in the second example.

From a statistical standpoint, Oath of Nissa is not a good reason to avoid any specific card. Yes, it might force you to not get a Summoner's Pact at a particular point in the library. But here's the thing: the Pact has equal odds of being in cards 1, 2, and 3 of your library as it does of being in cards 4, 5, 6. That means before you cast the Oath, the odds are just as good that it moves you closer as opposed to further away. Moreover, while it can be demoralizing to lose Pact to an Oath, you still have more information than if you had not played Oath (IE: you know the odds of drawing a Pact are reduced since one is accounted for), and can plan accordingly.

On the flip side, Oath does increase the value of cards it CAN get, since you effectively see 3 more chances to get that card. This is why it matters to the Genesis Hydra versus Genesis Wave question: the Oath doesn't make the odds of getting a Wave go down, but it does make the odds of getting a Hydra go up, so Hydra gets better from a relative standpoint.

And there is a point at which the odds of missing with an Oath make it not worth it to play Oath at all, usually because Oath no longer reliably gets anything, but that doesn't happen unless your deck is diluted with a LOT of non-targets. For instance, my first posted build had 60 cards, of which 42 were valid targets (18 enchantments/sorceries). Assuming no other information, that means my Oaths at least replaced themselves with another card about 98% of the time. You hit 95% effectiveness with 37 valid targets in 60 cards, and 90% at 31 valid targets in 60 cards.

So, in summary, if you can afford the 1-mana cantrip, Oath is almost always going to be good. And, while Oath makes some things better, it doesn't make anything worse. Don't avoid a card on account of Oath.

Edit/Appendix: Since I got to doing statistics earlier, I also did some analysis on Genesis Hydra on my most recent list. Your list may not be identical but, if it's at all similar, this may be handy for you.
Bottom line: Genesis Hydra at X=1 is a bad plan (unless you know it will hit due to something like Courser of Kruphix), X=2 is a coin-flip, X=3 is usually okay, and X>3 is pretty consistently good.

That's actually a great point: it's neither expected and, in fetch-heavy builds especially, T2 Moon can be very, very reliable. I dare say that a Blood Moon resolving that early almost completely upends the match vs Titan: they frequently only have 6-7 basic Plains and 1-2 basic Island, and the main removal tech for it requires 1UW, while their preferred sweeper is 1UWW. They can often deal witha T3 Moon if they expect it by proactively fetching basics with Strands and GQ, but T2 is really early and not expected at all from our deck. It goes from an uphill battle on our side to a desperate race on theirs to find the mana they need to sweep in time.

I like that list... sorta. Feels a bit land-light. But yeah, I think that list looks almost straight between classic Azorius Titan and UW Flash Control: you use our creature base and Emeria (which I think to be much better than Celestial Canonnade), but you include the disruptive elements and countermagic that are more typical for the other guys.

How was Mortarpod, Ojutai's Command, and Aether Spellbomb in the current meta?