Introduction
The number of players playing Mafia on MTGS has fallen during recent years, shown primarily through the reduction in the number of games run. By observing and charting this decline, we can attempt to understand why the population has decreased, and facilitate discussion on what can be done to rectify the situation and encourage growth.
The aim of this study is to observe the number of players from 2010 to 2015 inclusive, to discover the extent to which numbers have fallen, when they fell, and to explore changes in the sub-populations of new players, returning players, and active players.
Methods
The total population data for players on the mafia forum consists of the username of everyone who played a game between the years of 2010 and 2015. Within this six year period, data was collected in quarters of three months: the first quarter being January/February/March. A game was categorised into its quarter set based on its recorded start date, derived from the date of the first post in the thread. Replacements were counted the same as players who started the game, even if they replaced during a later quarter.
In addition to the total population, we wished to examine the subpopulations from which it is composed. Each player in the total population data was therefore assigned into one of three populations:
- New players (have never played before the quarter)
- Returning players (have played before, but not in the previous two quarters)
- Active players (have played before, and at least once in the previous two quarters)
The total population data was acquired by manually copying and pasting playerlists into a separate .txt file for each quarter (yes really). This was then stripped of formatting and parsed using a python script into an excel spreadsheet, with each column containing a list of players who played at least one game during each quarter. This total population data was then subdivided into the above sub-populations via another python script, with the resulting numbers of players in each subpopulation for each quarter also present in the spreadsheet. Also included in the spreadsheet is the list of games included in each quarter, as well as a quick-and-dirty count of how many games were played each year. Note that three games were excluded from this analysis: CCMIX, as it was a hydra game, Social Engineering 2, for being a blind game with gimmicks, and Vanilla 2, for having an OP which has been completely mangled.
Results
The resulting total number of players, along with the number of new, active, and returning player who were involved in at least one game each quarter is presented in figure 1 below.
The overall population has fluctuated with no clear trend for most of the time period, before dropping off in 2014, in line with the active and new player sub-populations.
In figure 1, we can see that active players underwent a very gentle decline in numbers until 2014, when the numbers rapidly fell off. During the preceding years, there are clear quarterly alternating peaks and troughs at the same points in each year. A fairly similar response was seen in the number of new players each quarter, which likewise tailed off during 2014. However there was also a large trough in the number of new players during the latter half of 2012. Returning players have maintained reasonably constant level, apart from a dip in 2013Q1. They only fell off marginally in 2014, and in fact rose slightly towards the end of the year and into 2015.
Discussion
This report aimed to observe the number of players, by quarter, from 2010 to 2015overall and by subpopulation. It found a large decrease in player numbers, as well as other fluctuations in the player-base.
Active players
The active player-base was mostly stable between 2011 to 2014, undergoing only a gentle decline. The alternative peaks and troughs suggest seasonal ebbs and flows in player numbers, supporting anecdotal observations. 2014 saw a gigantic contraction of the active player base, which is most likely attributable to the change in forum software under Curse ownership, which was widely decried at the time as being unsuitable for Mafia. Going into 2015, this decline levelled off and the population stabilised, helped perhaps in part by technological improvements at the start of 2015 (such as the increased post per page count). There was a worrying dip in 2015Q3 in overall player numbers, but they immediately bounced back, possibly suggesting that the current player-base has stabilised sufficiently for the seasonal changes in demand to return.
New players
New player rates have seen large fluctuations, although with consistent peak heights. The drop in new players in 2012Q3 is difficult to explain: the summer of 2012 saw a huge amount of site-wide drama focusing on the closure of the Gutter and associated user bans. This did affect the number of active players (the cyclical trough in 2012Q3 is larger than previous drops) as some players were banned or voluntarily left the site, although it is unclear how site drama would impact new players: perhaps users were driven away from the site, or the drama monopolised attention of otherwise potential new players.
The number of new players seems to start to recover in 2014Q1 before following declining in the rest of the year. Worryingly, new players are still in decline, possibly due to a lack of new-player friendly sign-ups.
The main area of interest revealed through this data was 2014, as the decline from 2014 to present day has been more severe than any other and shows no sign of recovery. While I have been unable to find a full timeline for when events occurred, the transition to Curse happened around this time. This came with the change in forum software, which public opinion was incredibly negative of (and not without reason). However, a number of positive changes were made in first half of 2015 (such as the increase in posts per page), which helped to stabilise the player base to an extent by making the site more mafia-friendly.
Returning players
Returning players have stayed fairly constant and less subject to the whims of seasonal demand than active and new players. They were also only very gently affected by the exodus in 2014, and have actually shown an increase since the end of 2014 (although this tailed off right at the end of 2015). This provides some hope that Curse has improved sufficiently that some players pushed away by it might be returning.
All three populations showed a trough in 2013Q1. Although this is in line with a seasonal in active players, it is very unusual behaviour for returning players. At the end of 2012, MTGS was first sold to Curse, which could have put off potential returning players. In addition, the forum struggled with a handful of large games which took a while to fire, which led to the fusing of Normals with the League.
Limitations
There are a number of limitations with the data collection methodology. Primarily, no provision has been made for the same player using a different name. This means that each different name is counted as a separate player, which includes:
- Misspellings
- Abbreviations
- Name Changes
- Gimmicks
In each of these cases, the different name appears as a completely separate player, which causes inflation in the population, and subpopulations that may skew the results. The situation is very solvable, but is likely to be labour intensive, as it would require collecting the variations by hand before combining them.
Conclusion
In conclusion, player numbers have fallen dramatically from 2010 to the end of 2015. Prior to 2014, decline was very gradual, with a series of peaks and troughs and active player numbers maintained a healthy cycle. However, the move to Curse and change in forum software in 2014 had a dramatic impact on the player base, and although this seems to be stabilising, there have been no signs of recovery, with the numbers of all three groups remaining low.
Given the current situation, it is imperative that we, as a forum, group together to work out what can be done to increase player numbers. The most important area to focus on is new players: their numbers have fallen incredibly - to only three new players in 2015Q4 - and appear to show no obvious signs of recovery. Although the number of returning players has remained fairly consistent, we should be looking to grow their number as well, primarily by trying to bring back the large number of players that left during 2014. Key to any growth strategy is ensuring that new and returning players can be converted into active players, which are the most important overall demographic to the continued health of the site.
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Perhaps going more narrative with Basics and more mechanical with our specialties would help. Instead of League, which added incentive to playing a lot with career stats and rankings, perhaps an episodic or continuing tale would help Basics out more. "Being part of the story" is what initially drew me to this game, and having an effect on the "world" of the designer. Xyre's games to this day stand out as superb storytelling that reacts to player decisions and change course completely depending on results.
Perhaps Basic Trilogy stories? Or what if players were roleplaying with no metagaming? Love the thought.
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On Normal/Special queue structure: Eco does make a good point about games gradually being of larger design if minis aren't isolated. I think newer game designers in particular are guilty of player count creep, but you learn eventually that bigger doesn't mean better. If minis are so popular, the fear may be unwarranted that minis need protecting from overzealous game designers. Their popularity means they will get to host a mini sooner, which is a built-in incentive to make a mini over a larger specialty. We might want to try it out before assuming minis will just disappear if there's not a specific queue for them. If games available are simply too large to be filled up, they won't run. We're smart; we will know it's because we need another mini.
I don't know what the best solution is; but I do see a lot of players wanting more complexity in more variety. I also know we do need some Normal or Basic style games to make room for newcomers and skill-jockeys. Maybe Small and Large game queues will work better, in that the complexity is simply left up to the host and player demand. As long as we keep basic/normal gameplay available and accessible, I don't see a problem with Small and Large queue structures.
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Eventually what happens to all of us as mafia players: once we've mastered the basics, we want something with a little more spice that makes us think harder and throw out everything we knew. As hosts and set-up designers, we want to challenge ourselves to balance ever more complex roles, and make our players reconsider traditional ideas (or be bastard mods). This is just the evolution of the game, but should be isolated as to not put off new players. The awesome spin a host will put on the Vigilante role is lost on the player who just now learned what a Vigilante is, and will now associate Vig with this unique role. You don't set up a new Minecraft player with a ton of Gregtech mods, or a noob Starcraft player in a specialized MOBA mod. Specialties, along with roles and abilities that could qualify as non-basic (like an unreliable cop or cult or whatever wouldn't be in a new player game), are essentially Mafia Mods, not intended for the uninitiated.
We have a small community advancing quickly in skill and players desire more complexity. That's entirely expected and a good thing. But you have to have a separation of the two game categories to ensure that new players will find a spot they feel comfortable testing themselves. That we want to "fix" the league to fit more complexity is only a result of the league players maturing from the format.
If the demand for League games decrease, run less League games. Let the sign up die, and run a different format. Design a smaller league game to fire next month. League games might be retrofitted to be more of a starting point for new comers looking to get into the unique specialty game settings we offer at MTGS.
Not a bad plan. We should get it going.
I don't think we want to divorce the league from complexity restrictions at all. That is part of what makes it important to progression in knowledge, vocabulary, and skill. If we ever run out of volunteers for scoring new players and coaching, we can scrap the project altogether and just run basics: new hosts - new players.
Adding a bit of fuzziness to the Normal queue line is another good remedy to the symptom. I believe this is due to a maturation of a small playerbase who just wants more complex games. We don't necessarily need to change the lower-level structure of progression as much as we need to increase the output of more complex specialties.
You have to realize at a certain point of complexity, your League score becomes so abstract that it isn't even an accurate representation of your progress as a player, which is the entire point of the League. You either climb to the top in basics or venture out into the wonderful world of MTGS Mafia Specialties, but don't confuse the two.
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There is now a Steampunk Mafia in the works.
That's a shame; I was assuming from the popularity of the last open setup game that semi-open would get picked up as well. Hope you change your mind!
The characters in this flavor will come from any theatrical release film. That includes the original trilogy and the prequel trilogy, along with The Clone Wars.
I can guarantee no one will be disappointed.
I will accept any more sign ups between now and tomorrow night.
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Maybe we should just bump this thread when we have some games going.