Magic Market Index for July 13th, 2018
 
Magic Market Index for July 6th, 2018
 
Treasure Cruisin' Modern UR Control
  • posted a message on State of Standard Thread: bans, format health, metagame, rotation, etc!
    If vehicles couldn't be crewed by summoning sick creatures I'd have less of a problem with them.

    Vehicles isn't the only part of cards you can't interact with. God-Pharaoh's Gift is a slightly more complicated way to cheat things in and Ixalan's Binding isn't even good enough to kill it because the cheat in spell doesn't cast it. Approach is narrow interaction unless you play counter spells or you red deck them dead before they can cast it... oops turn 4 is kind of fast.
    Posted in: Standard (Type 2)
  • posted a message on State of Standard Thread: bans, format health, metagame, rotation, etc!
    Design team is making too many cards that you either can't interact with or the way you interact is very narrow. Kaladesh is FULL of those and frankly vehicles is one of the worst design mistakes in years outside of individual OP cards.
    It's not so much that just Goblin Chainsmuggler is so evil... it's the confluence of cards that together make red utterly dominant.

    You can't block, you can't remove, Chandra, you can't destroy, Chandra, oh yea red went first you now have 40% less chance of winning.
    They are going overboard on too many fronts. Look at the utter value each card red has to play provides. No drawbacks, no compromises, no weaknesses except poor draws and we can all see that's not happening very frequently.

    Arena standard is exposing a lot of people to rampant red, vehicles, and control without very much else going on and it's just not that much fun anymore. I wish we could get back to balanced sets like we had 3 years ago like RTR and Khans. Even when they admit making mistakes (midrange stupidfest) they're not checking the desire to make cards that just end games or crowd out entire strategies that can't interact. Approach is part of that problem. God-Pharaoh's Gift (amongst all the other utter trash in Kaladesh)/Aetherworks McCheatypants are the problem. The rash of indestructible and uninteractive is the problem. They can't fix it with a single ban (as they've already tried with several.

    They need to fix this garbage format at the drawing board. I for one cannot wait for Kaladesh et al to go away.
    Posted in: Standard (Type 2)
  • posted a message on Ravnica "Block", and Why I Do Not Like It
    So you have nothing to add to the discussion you just like to attack other people's assertions.

    1. Repetitive nothing new
    2. I said that as well nothing new
    3. You quoted the lesser info from the report. The most relevant is the Franchise Brand info of 19%. If you're going to use a report to throw shade use it properly.
    If you don't have an opinion on how well WotC is doing why do you care if other do?
    You brought up 'best-selling' and referred to it as a 'significant data point' when in fact it's not data at all. Now you call it a 'factoid' and muddy the water of why you're using it.
    You are purposefully presenting data (from memory) as if it backs up belittling others opinions (weak arguments) and then saying you don't have an opinion. Why are you talking smack then?
    What does it have to do with Ravnica and why you like it, or don't like it, or care at all about how the set/block comes out?
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on Ravnica "Block", and Why I Do Not Like It
    Quote from BonSequitur »
    Quote from Greyimp »
    Point of fact. Franchise Brands for HASBRO include LITTLEST PET SHOP, MAGIC: THE GATHERING, MONOPOLY, MY LITTLE PONY, NERF, PLAY-DOH and TRANSFORMERS.
    Gaming division is separate and is reported separately and took its own loss of 22%.

    Franchise brands are down Q1 19% across all listed. There is no way to determine individual brand losses because they are not reported.

    Emperical evidence shows that LGS play has been down and continues to waffle in the Standard segment of the game for the past 2 years. Modern and Legacy are up and healthy. How much product do Modern and Legacy players buy? Not much; standard drives box/pack sales. If people aren't playing as much (WotC has observed and admitted attendance at big events is down) they aren't buying as much. If people aren't buying as much prices for singles get worse because supply is low (oh look at the chase mythic prices for Dom).

    RTR was when things were good and if they're smart, they'll stick to the block's strong points and balance across color combos help bounce back.
    I'm more than fine going back to Ravnica but they need to get back to the balance and design choices they used in the past to make Ravnica just as good or better.


    Sigh.

    Okay, to quote the earnings report:

    *Hasbro’s total gaming category, including all gaming revenue, most notably MAGIC: THE GATHERING and MONOPOLY, which are included in Franchise Brands in the table above, totaled $203.5 million for the first quarter 2018, down 20%, versus $253.3 million for the first quarter 2017. Hasbro believes its gaming portfolio is a competitive differentiator and views it in its entirety.


    That is: Magic falls under both "franchise brands" and the broader umbrella category of "gaming," but not "Hasbro Gaming," which is a specific segment of the brand portfolio. I get that this is confusing. "Gaming" had a slightly bigger drop than "franchise brands," but Hasbro as a whole took a hit across all of its portfolio categories in Q1 2018, which the latest results report attributes to Toys R Us' death.

    The constant mtgs narrative of Magic failing isn't supported by Hasbro earnings, as revenue was growing above the overall economy in both of those segments last year; it's only Q1 of 2018 that has this sharp drop. Also, the cited value is relative to Q1 2017 revenue. It's entirely plausible that WotC hasn't done as well in 2017 as it did in prior years, but nothing about the earnings report numbers people keep citing actually supports that conclusion.

    One data point that DOES mean something is the assertion that BfZ is the best-selling set of all time - indicating that Magic sales are on a dip from that peak which hasn't been reached yet. But there's a difference between doing poorly and not doing unprecedentedly well like BfZ did; and without real marketing data, you might as well be cutting pigeons open and reading their entrails to make guesses about what causes Magic sales to ebb and flow.

    Also, while singles prices are very perceptible for enfranchised players, they are not the only driver of pack sales. A lot of Magic packs are sold to people who don't really know or care about singles values and just want cards to play with in casual settings. A lot of packs are sold to people who want to draft them. And as Magic packs are sold in different kinds of businesses in different places, anecdotal reports from LGS about tournament activity aren't indicative of sales either.


    sigh

    All you did is quote from a different portion of the earnings report. Why would you look at all gaming when the Franchise Brand number does NOT include all the Hasbro board games and is salient? I get why you're confused but the fact is you can't say WotC's doing great because you also don't have the numbers to back that up.

    They do not publish individual brand numbers.

    What you have is a sharp drop in Q1 which INCLUDES other properties. WotC's part of the report could be 50% loss or 25% gain or anything else depending on how those other brands have done.
    The data point of people NOT PLAYING is more significant that "BfZ is the best selling of all time". Best selling adjusted for inflation? Best selling based on box sales? Free Range is a thing they say too but it doesn't always mean what you want it to.

    Selling packs for different reasons is a given and quite obvious. You can read the entrails the way you want but it doesn't make your opinion better than everyone else's nor does it add to any discussion to accuse others of 'wild-ass guessing'.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on Ravnica "Block", and Why I Do Not Like It
    Point of fact. Franchise Brands for HASBRO include LITTLEST PET SHOP, MAGIC: THE GATHERING, MONOPOLY, MY LITTLE PONY, NERF, PLAY-DOH and TRANSFORMERS.
    Gaming division is separate and is reported separately and took its own loss of 22%.

    Franchise brands are down Q1 19% across all listed. There is no way to determine individual brand losses because they are not reported.

    Emperical evidence shows that LGS play has been down and continues to waffle in the Standard segment of the game for the past 2 years. Modern and Legacy are up and healthy. How much product do Modern and Legacy players buy? Not much; standard drives box/pack sales. If people aren't playing as much (WotC has observed and admitted attendance at big events is down) they aren't buying as much. If people aren't buying as much prices for singles get worse because supply is low (oh look at the chase mythic prices for Dom).

    RTR was when things were good and if they're smart, they'll stick to the block's strong points and balance across color combos help bounce back.
    I'm more than fine going back to Ravnica but they need to get back to the balance and design choices they used in the past to make Ravnica just as good or better.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on Ravnica "Block", and Why I Do Not Like It
    They like their master's sets so much that reprints in standard are not likely at all. We do see lands (the same ones again and again) and I'll bet they don't reprint anything worthwhile for other formats but a new land cycle to promote pack sales.
    Rumors have it that WotC's division at HASBRO has lost 35% sales in all areas (as Hasbro released it's losses bundling WotC with Monopoly because hiding numbers) even though they're releasing more products than every before each year.
    Current prices of top mythics
    Karn $64
    Teferi $40
    Lyra $25
    History of Benality $19

    The rest of the set lacks value thus can't possibly be promoting sales.

    My concern about a 3 large set 'block' (because that's what it is) lies in their recent trend to overpower just a few cards per set leaving the rest mostly worthless in conjunction with plot. They're going to want to build to something so are we going to get another spaghetti monster type 'we went too far' and more bans? More crappy format that people don't want to buy into?

    Standard needs help, so on the bright side... if going to a popular world that was a very successful and good standard environment fixes things and gets people back into standard that is GOOD.
    I'm just waiting for their faceplant.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on Your Critics and Hopes with MTG Arena
    The likelihood they will continue to support MTGO and MTA long term is very low.
    I don't give them that much credit in planning.

    They are planning the greedy path though. The predatory gem system tell it all. Not communicating with the testing community so they don't have to answer questions about direction and fixes is a big tell as well.

    So many testers really want to help them make the game all it could be. They don't need MTGO and frankly that game is so old and dated they're not going to be pulling in new players there. It's MTA or continue in mediocrity. Guarantee within the first 2 years they change the system after releasing with predatory selling practices and an unpolished game. They're too busy prepping for release, the tell is they're working on Kaladesh block instead of fixes. MTGA initially will be standard only so they plan to release sooner than people think.
    Posted in: MTG Arena
  • posted a message on Karn should not exist in standard.
    So many places to put him and not enough copies. They didn't see this coming?

    Or they did and imagined sales are more important than game health?
    Posted in: Standard (Type 2)
  • posted a message on Karn should not exist in standard.
    My complaint is standard has a hard time firing in lots of places these days.
    2 years ago my large LGS sported 15-25 players for standard every FNM. It held events on Sunday and Tuesday that all fired every time.
    This month standard barely fires with 6-8 people (occasionally 'fill-ins' are used so we can play). Sundays don't fire, weekdays forget it.

    Modern 2 years ago same FNM around 10-15 people. Today 20-30 consistently, fires every time. holiday weekend in Dec there were 81 Modern players (standard didn't fire). Is it that way everywhere? No. Is that a sign that standard needs a lot of help? Sure is. High entry cost to be competitive (or just looking at card costs and saying 'forget that') makes people think... hmmm I'll just play commander, or another game entirely.

    At a time when they ought to be bending over backwards go get people in standard high prices such as these don't help. It sucked when it was just Gideon, now we've got 3 plainswalkers and numerous other cards above $20 each, including cards that will rotate sooner than later. Not exactly great investment time.

    They've noticed lower attendance at the big events, that means a LOT lower attendance at LGS. Why even buy cards if you don't get to use them?
    It's nice they're grudgingly bringing back FNM promos but frankly that's not enough. Challenger decks are ok but to make them right you need to invest in quite a few of the same cards we're talking about.

    I just don't want to wonder if FNM will fire or not, or if I should bother taking the time to see if it will. That alone makes people think twice before showing up to play.
    Posted in: Standard (Type 2)
  • posted a message on Your Critics and Hopes with MTG Arena
    The timer and ignoring simple fixes is getting old.
    They don't communicate at all with the testers and seem to be chugging along like nothing's wrong.
    Too bad really they could knock it out of the park but don't want to.
    Posted in: MTG Arena
  • posted a message on Karn should not exist in standard.
    The argument is 30+ dollar cards are bad for a format that's struggling. 60+ is just stupid.
    Should be harder to give the design team the benefit of the doubt after 2 years of disaster.
    What exactly are they doing to bring people back into standard... aside from appealing to people's desire to blow all their cash on overpriced singles?
    Posted in: Standard (Type 2)
  • posted a message on Karn should not exist in standard.
    Quote from Havrekjex »
    I´m chiming in as a player who considered picking up a standard deck, but ultimately opted out because of the price and ubiquity of Karn. I strongly dislike feeling like I´m playing a budget/non-optimal list, and it seems like I have the choice of either doing that or dishing out an unreasonable amount on an insanely inflated card that´s bound to crash eventually. I know that buying singles that will go down in value is part of the format, but this is just too much. I actually started to scrape a white aggro deck together, I even have the playset of History, but now I´m going to feel like I´m playing a loser´s version of WB Vehicles, and there´s no way I´m buying into a $650 Standard deck. I could consider GB Constrictor, but I guess it´s just a matter of time before people figure out that Karn is good there too. So I´m giving it a pass and I´m selling the Standard relevant cards I have.

    I´m convinced that Karn hurts the format. I can´t possibly be the only one who was tempted to get into Standard, then looked at the top decks and the prices and went "heeell no".


    THIS is what the problem is. It's not just a 4 cost 6 (+1 unless exiled immediately) loyalty plains walker that starts with value and continues to generate it.
    It's the fact that right now standard is decimated. FNM barely fires in many places (even if your LGS is doing fine think big picture) and they print a card that CAN go in any deck and generate value. Is it optimized for every deck? No. Does it function in every deck? Yes. How many decks are answering T4 6 loyalty? Even if you do, they play another, still value. Paying attention to the 'artifacts matter' portion of the -2 is shallow. The +1 and needing to deal with 6 loyalty is the power. Sure Vehicles or RDW can just plow through and ignore him, but the fact is we have a card that is $70 bucks in a standard that needs more players. There was plenty of problem with the cost of standard with 20-25 dollar premium mythics before this. Now this bank busting price tag (doesn't matter if it EVENTUALLY drops) is making people refuse to play standard.

    Karn does hurt an already bleeding and ragged format. The Kaladesh dumpster fire is still harming the format but all will not get better after it rotates and I guarantee Karn will NOT lose his luster as much as people think with Kaladesh rotation. After 2 years of stomping on their own game and driving people away from standard they need to be much smarter than this and proactively take action to make standard less expensive not more. They're doing nothing there, and they're doing nothing to attract people to the format. (The Challenger decks are not a hit but a total whiff)

    Printing Karn is a mistake.
    Posted in: Standard (Type 2)
  • posted a message on State of Standard Thread: bans, format health, metagame, rotation, etc!
    It would be great for the prices to nose dive but right now it's the power cards that are appearing with high frequency in decks.
    FNM showed me a dude with 4 Karn, at least 2 Lyra and 4 Benalia in a mono white deck. Have to say dealing with Karn repeatedly is devastating.

    The price of standard has been high and it gets worse now that standard numbers are low. Barely fired and that was only because some employees 'joined in' so we could have standard that night. Modern still strong with 30+.

    Something beyond the consumer's control needs to be done to reign things in a bit. People still shrug and say 'Karn will play in Modern' and just accept the price tag. Not great for inducting new people or getting players to return. That's my concern.

    Control IS doing well again and look at the UW lists. Karn, Teferi, History of Benalia, Lyra are all there together or some variation of them. Hell the mono white tokens had them all except Teferi. You can't recruit people to play standard when the cost to play is this high and the options to play without these monsters is lackluster. Even Red Deck wins, which traditionally hasn't been the highest priced deck out there is pretty pricey if you max it out with Phoenix and Hazoret. Instead we get a 2H giant set.
    Another
    Product
    yay
    Posted in: Standard (Type 2)
  • posted a message on State of Standard Thread: bans, format health, metagame, rotation, etc!
    You have to be purposely not getting it.

    Who makes the rarity?
    Who makes the cards?
    Who exerts control over the marketplace via reprints?
    Who sets the pack price?

    Rocket Science.

    While I judge there to be provocation, I also judge that this post could be more constructive. Please stop. - hoser2
    Posted in: Standard (Type 2)
  • posted a message on Is it a Common??
    The first paragraph of 'Sperling's Sick of It' is so spot on it's ridiculous.

    https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/sperlings-sick-of-it-dominaria/

    Has anyone seen anything where they've admitted the mistake and won't do it again??

    tnx
    Posted in: Rumor Mill Archive
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