Magic Market Index for Feb 8th, 2018
 
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Magic Market Index for Dec 28th, 2018
  • posted a message on Why do I constantly have the same cards in my hand, and see the same ones from opponents?
    i haven't started tracking it yet (considering doing so) but I've noticed that if I have a higher cmc card in my hand I'll start to draw adequate land sources (and on color when it matters) to cast said card.

    An example is just how often I start with two land hands in mono red. Using hypergeometric distribution I should have a 33.9% chance to draw exactly two lands in a 17 land deck. Do I almost always start is adequate resources to cast what I need? I sure do. I know I'm not shipping 2/3 of my openers for having 0, 1, 3+ lands lol. Heck I played ten games the other day and I had no openers that I recall with 3 lands (21.73% chance with 17 lands with opening 7). It's obviously matching my opening lands to my average curve in my eyes.

    BO1 is starting to not feel very much like magic to me. I see it time and time again when new players come to draft for the first time in our LGS in the past 2 months. They build incorrect mana bases for a 3 color deck and then just lose nonstop. Arena does a lot of heavy lifting for newer players but doesn't tell you it's doing it. It's very jarring from what I've seen when these players migrate to paper magic imho.

    Now I haven't played thousands of games and I could be reading into variance way too much. Just another opinion and bit of feedback to toss into the pot.
    Posted in: MTG Arena
  • posted a message on [War of the Spark] - New planeswalker named Teyo Verada
    Few things:

    1. The diamond storms and shield mages are very similar in description to the Hekma and general feel of amonkhet. I'm not sure if removing Egyptian influence is enough of a differentiator for me. I wouldn't be surprised if Teyo didn't make the end.

    2. I guess it's safe to assume that only planeswalkers who try and travel are lured/directed to Rav?

    3. If there are a bunch of walkers (Nissa, koth, elspeth, Kiora, garruk) who don't show up in art / teasers so far, this is a great way to clean out the "fridge" that creative mentions from time to time. I think the story has a lot of auxiliary things going on that are very much so loose ends (kiora stealing thasssa's indent just to leave and not fight for zendikar).

    4. Very obvious that bolas cannot win because of the Chandra comic. We know at least some of the good guys survive the eternals + immortal sun + bolas. I agree the journey is the story not the end. I'm looking forward to it.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Challenger Decks 2019
    Quote from user-11102155 »
    Quote from Cainsson »
    Quote from user-11102155 »
    the previous challenger decks were a great product with 4 meta relevant decks.
    since i Ajani's Pridemate was confirmed, i wonder what deck he will be in that is meta relevant. never saw him in any list of any decent tournament, nor in my own standard games. i know he was in a kind of starter deck online, but that cant count, or ?

    are they downgrading the challenger decks ? the last ones were well designed and playable right out of the box. i fear a white weenie deck with a pridemate wont be able to hold up to the previous challenger decks
    It's gonna be the BO1 Mono White aggro deck that was winning in Arena before RNA.


    but who would want to buy one as card game ?
    the purpose of the product was to be able to play right out of the box with these in a tournament and have real chances with space to improve the deck
    if they do this, its kind of telling the people "you could as well buy a planeswalker deck and still have the same chances"
    i remember one fnm, where we were just 14 people, one bought the mardu challenger deck and got placed 2nd. it wasnt the high end version of the deck, but it could run well, it could give u the same tools. ajanis pridemate is not competitive in my eyes


    GRN Pro tour deck list with the lifegain package. LSV's deck with the settle in the side I think. What is interesting about this deck is that you can put quite a few legion's landing to fill up rare value and history of benalia - which is way more expensive than it should still be. The rest of the deck is quite cheap from a secondary market perspective. Both are rotating relatively soonish and add a lot of omph to something like tokens or the RW variants - allowing people to trade and branch out.

    There was a jeskai control deck that also did well in that top 8. The deck ran 4 teferi though. So maybe a watered down version.

    I agree that drakes seems like an easy include, but the deck is very cheap compared to other decks. Not sure how you squeeze value in it without making it like a turbo niv deck or dropping Phoenix in. Both of which feel too recent to show up? I dunno.

    Mono blue has been posting okayish results for quite some time. siren stormtamer and merfolk trickster carry some value for uncommons which could help prop it up out of the gate. This deck does play differently than W or RW aggro and I could see both of them. It's very close to drakes though.

    Mono green stompy had an incredible amount of hype during Dom (when these were being conceptualists probably). It's a great repository for lots of staples getting ready to rotate.

    Golgari seems like the more competitive green deck. doom whisperer gives it plenty of value and top end out of the box. It plays the explore package more successfully than mono green as well.

    My guesses:
    Golgari (GB)
    Drakes (UR)
    White or Boris aggro (W or RW)
    Something else, probably 3 color.

    The first three pretty evenly hit the entire color pie and play uniquely. Jeskai control also did well on the SCG circuit before the GRN pro tour. I think there is a strong chance the deck is teferi, a crapshoot of a mana base with some gates and some rares, that really isn't great at keeping up with the others without defening clarion for white, serrle the wreckage for golgari, and lava coil for drakes. Leaves very little room if you add dig spells.

    Flip cards should be easy enough because landing is so obvious alongside pridemate and all blue decks benefit from search. You can just print sheets of flip cards if you correlate the numbers correctly with minimal asditional expense. They were doing flip tokens for lots of precons for awhile and no one batted an eye in regards expense. They are also iconic for the the Ixalan block.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on B&R Announcement: Nexus of Fate banned from Standard, Arena only
    My guess is that they didn't want to ban the box topper at all costs, so they only banned it on Arena.

    Cut the conspiracy crap. In the article they explicitly state that Nexus didn't come anywhere near to the most common objective measure to determine paper bans, namely results in major tournaments. What you suggest flies directly in the face of what they have been trying to achieve with the box toppers in the first place, namely being interesting casual cards. There is no evidence to suggest that competitiveness is a goal of box toppers.


    There is no conspiracy, the article also quoted the headaches that decks like eggs cause. This card can cause logistical issues in a tournament setting which is why the parallel was drawn.

    The box topper, to be a success, has to entice a buyer to bite. The only way to do that for the vast majority of players is to make a card competitive in some format. Playability so far outweighs artwork, scarcity (except the most rare cases like quarter of a century old cards), and flavor it ain't even funny. The box topper cannot serve two masters - it cannot be casual and competitive in a format without the market starting to influence price. Nexus checks too many boxes, period. It's standard playable in multiples, it's great in commander, it's splashy/flashy and collectible.

    If haunt if Hightower is any indication, they're marketing to commander crowd now (who in all honesty are likely to pick up a box with likely single copies of multiple rates/mythics). I have no idea if that is a big enough draw for the product to positively impact LGS sales or not.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on B&R Announcement: Nexus of Fate banned from Standard, Arena only
    Quote from Galerion »
    Quote from mapccu »
    I dunno if I like this approach. If the card is leading to undesirable game states online, why would I want to bet $70usd on tournament entry and risk losing to looped turns as well. How is that any more desirable.

    I play turns in modern for fun every now, but if it was a legit deck I wouldn't want to see it very often. Watching someone else play magic for 10 min at a time isn't fun. Even victories against these strats feel hollow.

    This also sets precedence to set market expectations. If the natural progression is to ban in arena and then ban in paper there could be quite a heavy impact on the price barrier. Now players are forced with the unfortunate choice of do I buy/trade for this card that obviously has a target on it even though it yields me the best chance of spiking this tournament - or play it safe and take a known quantity that may have a slightly better than abysmal chance against the rest of the field but beats that deck?

    I'll have to stew on this one for awhile. On the bright side I'm glad they are at least paying atttention.


    The article has been pretty clear about it that the problem is the Magic Arena client and not Nexus of Fate. In paper there are judges and shortcuts. In the Magic Online client you will simply time out and lose the match if you want to loop endlessly. Arena has none of those things so you can actually loop endlessly and there is nothing you can do about it.


    The article directly drew parallels to eggs and is specifically stating it's not meta share or dominance that led to the decision. It supported it by calling out to feedback receipt from the community and pros specifically. Now granted it further supports the ban by addressing the technical limitation of arena complicating the problem after that.

    The ban is very much tied to multiple aspects and I don't disagree with that. My personal gripe is with play experience and not system limitations.

    I believe they stated that modern's KCI in particular has had a very low MTGO representation in part because of the system limitations of executing the kill.

    When the community blew up at the spoiler, the false sense of scarcity drove the price up afterwards (even though Maro stated on blogatog that there are more copies of nexus out in the wild than any other mythic from the set), and when wilderness reclaimatiom was spoiled my opinion never changed. This card is bad design and leads to undesirable magic.

    For the record you can throw teferi looping himself into that pile as well.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on B&R Announcement: Nexus of Fate banned from Standard, Arena only
    I dunno if I like this approach. If the card is leading to undesirable game states online, why would I want to bet $70usd on tournament entry and risk losing to looped turns as well. How is that any more desirable.

    I play turns in modern for fun every now, but if it was a legit deck I wouldn't want to see it very often. Watching someone else play magic for 10 min at a time isn't fun. Even victories against these strats feel hollow.

    This also sets precedence to set market expectations. If the natural progression is to ban in arena and then ban in paper there could be quite a heavy impact on the price barrier. Now players are forced with the unfortunate choice of do I buy/trade for this card that obviously has a target on it even though it yields me the best chance of spiking this tournament - or play it safe and take a known quantity that may have a slightly better than abysmal chance against the rest of the field but beats that deck?

    I'll have to stew on this one for awhile. On the bright side I'm glad they are at least paying atttention.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Modern "Dirty Kitty" post release of DOM
    Quote from mapccu »
    Testing gate to the afterlife/God pharaoh's gift with the metallic mimic and murdurous redcap combo.

    Redcap ETB is equal to power, so gift returning it is 4 to the face. Granted it turns off persist, but lets you have another combo kill and reach if you can keep gift on the table.

    Testing:



    Combo A: gift back a steady stream of 4/4s. (Pitching wraiths and the sac effects can fill up the yard super fast. Plunge/grenade can help you set up turns 2-3)

    Combo B: early storm for 6-8 gobs from empty and bushwacker beats. (War Marshall nets you a mana with prospector out, an active gate can also filter redundant lands to help you find more combo pieces and dig down).

    Combo C: sac outlet + redcap + mimic is infinite damage/mana. (Redcap has to be hardcast because the token ceases to exist if you gift it back and it dies. Still a 4/4 mimic or prospector is pretty clutch).

    Plan D: aggro beats with denizen and bushwacker. (T1 denizen, t2 two firebrands, t3 go ham with a kicked bushwacker. Fanatics/firebrand/redcap give you reach).


    Going to start testing goblin gathering in place of empty x2 and infernal plunge x2. It's not as explosive, but dumping extras in the yard leads to additional value later on. After one is in the yard the second breaks even on mana and the 3rd and 4th generate mana if I need it. I'm interested because it's just much easier to cast. I'm trading spell slots for spell slots, so gift consistency shouldn't be impacted.

    I think the deck needs more grenades for reach. Probably shift mimic /redcap combo down a piece each to squeeze the last two in...

    -2 empty the warrens
    -2 infernal plunge
    -1 metallic mimic
    -1 murdurous redcap
    +4 goblin gathering
    +2 goblin grenade

    So aggro starts off the back of denizen into burn reach OR hasty 4/4s after t2-3, or bushwacker if going wide. This may be one of those decks that performs well with a transformational sideboard? Not sure if starting out as a combo deck or an aggro deck is better in an open meta.

    legion warboss is also an interesting rabblemaster variant. Maybe enough of the two could be strong? I feel like that would be a more piledriver heavy build though.

    Desperately need additional prospectors. Even brightstone ritual could be huge for this deck. Several other pieces have redundancy at this point.

    Token gen: empty the warrens, goblin gathering, mogg war-Marshall, warren instigator, goblin rabblemaster, legion warboss.

    Draw/loot/cycle: fecundity, gate to the afterlife, street wraith.

    Burn: fanatical firebrand, mogg fanatic, goblin grenade, lightning bolt.

    Mana generation: skirk prospector, infernal plunge

    Aggro: grounded street denizen, goblin piledriver, goblin rabblemaster, legion warboss.

    Disruption: blood moon, relic of progenitus, ancient grudge, whatever sideboard needed for the meta.

    Sacrifice: skirk prospector (only good repeatable effect right now), mogg fanatic, fanatical firebrand, goblin grenade, infernal plunge.

    Right now so much of my build revolves around prospector, and I think they deck is going to be quite potent if we ever get any redundancy for him. I think in the meantime getting some sort of reach or fast aggro starts may be more ideal in an open meta. The metallic mimic combo is probably too cute.

    Strongly considering dropping green for black and adding judith, the scourge diva. She does add an incredible amount of reach to the deck and reanimating her off gate is big game. Super unfortunate that her ping isn't for tokens (bummer lol - that would have been a very obvious place to take the deck).

    I've also considered tinkering with faithless looting and hollow one. Looting plays really well with gate and cards like gathering (lol) and I'm already on the wraiths. Recurring hollow ones just seems comical to me. Deck becomes crazy soft to artifact removal post board though and it does eat up 8 slots (which means I probably lose a gift of the God pharaoh, the gatherings, the mimic combo, and shave a slot from somewhere else). Keeps the combo variant and gate enables hollow ones drawn after T1/2 in a mana light deck.
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on Making Mono-Black Midrange/Devotion more viable in modern?
    Google mtggoldfish tribal liliana. The deck is whack expensive, but it's very good against a bunch of the T1/2 strats right now and can be tuned for any meta. Maindeck yard hate with leyline of the void that gives you devotion. fatal push, liliana of the veil and liliana, the last hope can chew through creature decks like humans or elves. collective brutality and discard can keep you in the game vs burn while you hang on for a grey merchant to pull you ahead. You can loop merchant with the lili's. gifted aetherborn is strong vs burn g1. G2 they will have the searing blazes for them to keep up tempo and card advantage.

    It's a fun deck and one I sleeve up from time to time for sure. It is super expensive though. Hopefully the write up gives you some ideas for curve etc.
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on BUG Wilderness Teachings Turns
    How fragile do the tarpits feel? Do you think lumbering falls and adequate tweaks to the mana to compensate the swap would be feasible? I don't have a nexus either, but i'd get one to try this out if it's as fun as it looks. I jam mono U turns for fun every now and then anyway - so this feels like it's up my alley.
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on Which decks do you think have the most staying power in Modern?
    I would also wait for the new modern product announcement. If they, god forbid, decide to print cards directly into the format they could, intentionally or (more likely) unintentionally, nuke the metagame completely and then all of this becomes irrelevant.


    That is my concern as well but if this product were ever going to see the light of day, I'd expect chase cards that are really strong blanket answers to specific zones/archetypes. Makes everyone chase the shiney and sells product that guarantees another product run. Nothing like that would throw the meta too far out because you have some incredibly potent "free" hate already (leyline of the void or surgical extraction).

    OP I think grixis deaths shadow is incredibly good. I suck at playing it and perform much better with creature combo personally - but the deck is legit and solid. Even if something in shadow were to eat a ban, as mentioned above, a ton of the deck ports over to other established archetypes.

    I mean storm, delver, twin, grixis death shadow, arc light - they all evolved off a very solved mana base for the most part. At the very worst if you chase whatever is hot for the meta, your real estate will port over to other decks well.

    I bought into storm, filled out for twin, acquired UB stuff for fairies, and then only had to buy shadows when grixis shadow blew up. Now I'm about $100usd from the new arclight decks.

    Build something that gives you mobility for a meta.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Oubliette to be reprinted in a "future set"
    I'd buy into an arsenal type product or even boosters of 15 commons randomly assorted tbh. There is no law stating that all boosters have to have higher rarities if that's the sets gimmick. I don't even think they are married to the 15 cards per booster thing (box box stores used to have smaller boosters that didn't even guaranty a rare).

    Now I think that heavily skews the consumers desire to spend a premium on that product because it comes with less perceived value. Full art / different style lands, special tokens, foil per pack, and masterpieces are all gimmicks they've used to push packs though and could easily make me bite on a handful of boosters.

    You could even add an arena promo rider now that it's picking up steam. Chance to open free arena boosters or event entries in place of a token for example. That way people can get lucky and get a free entry into a standard draft or free standard boosters in arena.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on The People's Pod
    Btw I've had good results in playtesting so far with acidic slime in the saheeli builds alongside phantasmal image. Between saheeli, felidar, Kiki, and image you can blink/copy the thing into oblivion and set someone's mana back incredibly well.

    It rumbles really well with deaths shadow/eldrazi/gurmags/hollow one or it eats removal that isn't pointed at a combo piece. The deck can ramp pretty hard off the back of a cobra/rallier and then evolution for it at soon as t2 (dork, cobra, rallier, 2 lands with one being a fetch, and an eldritch evolution). Yeah 6 cards, but it's very doable since the lands and dorks are redundant pieces.

    Could help with tron and multicolor decks. Especially if someone takes T1 off to cast something like seeum visions and then you nuke a land with cobra, dork, ooze as your board.
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on Ravnica Allegiance (RNA) and War of the Spark (WAR) General Discussion
    Quote from cyberium_neo »
    Quote from RedGauntlet »
    I wished Rakdos was potrayed as more a source of adult enteritanment and a place of luxury. I don't mind having a murder circus been the more extreme part of the Cult, but have things like Cassinos and brothels be associated with Rakdos. it definitly fits the color pie and gives Rakdos a place in society that makes sense, instead just a crazy cult of psychos. If the ya re indeed associated with it, atleast show them more in the cards.


    Adult entertainment would be troublesome to show in actual cards though. Rakdos's design in Ravnica 1 was mentioned to be the plane's entertainment hub, and far less circus-y too.

    EDIT: Tajic mentioned in the flavor of Bedevil about naughty amusement, perhaps he's been to one.


    You can still show cards depicting a red light district without suggestive clothing. You can show amusement in things other than gore. The guild mechanic is spectacle and the article falls pretty flat during many of the acrobatic parts from the viewpoint of the audience. They don't come off as performers than generally society would waste time viewing. Why would the a random joe of ivy lane be caught at any form of rakdos entertainment? Draw the link for me in how this guild conforms to society. ivy lane denizen FYI.

    While I understand the link to a lot of the darker forms of entertainment historically, many of those were tests of strength, martial expertise, dominance, and tradition - which all feel gruul and deservedly so.
    Posted in: Magic Storyline
  • posted a message on Ravnica Allegiance (RNA) and War of the Spark (WAR) General Discussion
    Quote from idSurge »
    A question mapccu.

    Do/Have you participated in any kind of contact or combat sport?


    Yeah I have. While I haven't done anything at a high level, I do enjoy watching some of the more contact heavy sports like MMA fighting. I just can't equate the rakdos to that though. There is no sportsmanship in how they're depicted imo.
    Posted in: Magic Storyline
  • posted a message on Ravnica Allegiance (RNA) and War of the Spark (WAR) General Discussion
    While I totally dig a lot of the art style of the rakdos, which is very unique to them - I did not like this story or the direction storytelling is going for the rakdos.

    I'm all for showing that B or BR can be the good guys.l (or less bad guys). The aether born were a great example of this. I never felt like Gonti was evil, just less trustworthy and shady, maybe dangerous. If you're routinely enjoying entertainment at the expense of someone else's life - you're evil. I don't care how "bad" you make dovin and the azorious, the rakdos are still evil. Sure you can equate them to gladiatorial combat on some levels, but those weren't public displays of torture. They were fights and feats of strength, expertise, and slaves (who the populace didn't even consider people with rights). Getting off work to go watch someone get drilled in the head is over the top graphic and doesn't even make sense as a form of entertainment that the general populace would even be remotely interested in.

    The demon was way too much of a jack of all trades. He tells poetry, does stand up, and an acrobatic routine multiple times all in one short story. It's hard to relate when your main character is good-great at so many different things. If you want the circus vibe, then don't have your strong man doing the tight rope routine - let him be a unique attraction.

    I find it shocking that a guild like the azorious hasn't outright declared war on the rakdos guild ages ago. Everything about the city, what they do, and how they do it flies in the face of the law. You don't go into an area this corrupt and not do a full occupation.

    Just so hard to get a feeling of society and interconnected guild system when one of the guilds is so jarringly wrong with what the establishment of civilization even stands for.

    It doesn't even sound like the guild members that share a race with rakdos like him. Are they cult fanatics, circus performers, everyday people trying to make a living in the entertainment industry, black market dealers? Wtf would I even care to have this guild around on my planet if I were the boros, azorious, simic, izzet, selesyna, orzohv? Sure I can see the gruul getting in on the show aspect and brutality. I could see the dimir being into the seedy nature of what the guild traffics in. The rest? Even with overlapping colors? No, not buying it. The guild does nothing but offer a place for people to go and devolve into savages.
    Posted in: Magic Storyline
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