Not done reviewing yet. About a page and a half to go with 60 PPP. Just wanted to throw this out there first. Will probably adjust things once I get done, especially if what I'm about to note has already been addressed.
This is an interesting idea. Town doesn't have much use for the Dark Cult. I think the idea of anybody getting caught using the cult is obvscum is interesting. If scum tried to claim having the cop investigation and say their target must have used the Dark Cult that would be a one-for-one trade.
I've never really seen a townie refer to the rest of the town as "team mates." Scum, however...
One last thing about the Courier Post. @Mod: Do we PM the Courier Post or do we post in thread?
I came across Caex saying that we PM but the ability itself is unclear. I can't imagine it's post in thread, but just to be sure.
This is the first post with content in it, and the first one that spiked on my radar. Color change is mine to highlight this. He's implanting the idea that everyone who uses the Dark Cult is obvscum, because the scum don't want to have to continue spending coins on the Holy Tabernacle to ensure that their kills go through.
I will. I do find this interesting, though. Do you want me to vote Albus to get the lynch done, or do you want me to vote for somebody else just to throw one out there? I'm not sure how to reconcile this statement with your assertion that D1 isn't even close to being long (which I agree with you on).
Albus is scum. He's made too many contradictions and backpeddled too much for him to be anything else.
Not sure about Iso. Basically what's been said about him has been, "He's Iso." Big problem for me is meta arguments mean nothing. I have very little history with anybody so I don't know how somebody plays town or scum. Iso being Iso means he's a null tell for me.
I'm working my way through what Caex has said. I do have some questions for him:
Could you clarify how Shark has been trying hard to look town? Does this mean AE has been doing a bad job of appearing town?
WIFOM. "AE admits to lurking but has to be town because admitting to lurking is scummy and scum never do anything scummy."
His reasoning on Albus was weak. I've said before that as I was reading this game before I replaced in Albus never seemed all that scummy, and he gives like 2 descriptive adjectives as to why Albus is scum.
No, Albus has changed his tune, so to speak, a few times. He first claimed to have two coins then claimed to have just one. He claimed to be roleplaying his gimmick then dropped the act. He's flailed at you (I believe, have to go back to check on that) then decried flailing.
Albus has contradicted himself too much. It's no surprise he's today's lynch. I'd vote for him now but, like pinky, I'd like proggy's take on all of this. It would be nice to have Art's replacement's opinion, but I don't think we need to go full stop until somebody steps in.
It's not saying a lot. I'm still working my way through this weekend's walls of text.
Taking clues from his scumbuddy, waiting to see what she would do. Also, really don't like the fact that he pushed the Albus lynch before Arn was replaced.
So which one do you want? Albus' lynch now or D1 to continue? We both agree that this D1 hasn't been all that long. You can consider my vote on Albus and I'll be happy to make that reality once we have all agreed to end the day.
Pandering, making sure that he doesn't look scummy by quickhammering. He knew Albus was a goner, so he didn't mind having to wait.
Problem is the mod confirmed that somebody got an investigation last night. If Wheat is lying about getting the investigation then he'll be counterclaimed. If the counterclaimer is scum then he or she is our next lynch if Wheat comes up town. It's an incredibly stupid gambit to falseclaim an investigation result in this game because we all know that an investigation was done.
Your point about poggy/Wheat contradiction is interesting, but I don't think it makes What scum because I just can't see scum falseclaiming an investigation.
Defends Wheat, hard. He knew Wheat wasn't lying about the investigation, because Wheat DID win it, so he knew Wheat wouldn't get counterclaimed.
Both of these are big problems with early investigations in this game. We can't trust that whoever won the investigation isn't scum. Wheat's investigation will be suspect until we get an investigation on him from somebody who bids a large amount.
Pandering to the town. Realizes he defended Wheat a little too hard so had to backtrack.
Note that the following assumes Wheat is scum and Shark is town. I'm not assuming this because I believe it to be true, but because it would result in a bad case scenario.
There's ten of us now. Let's work our way through a bad case scenario:
Lynch Shark
Nine alive going into N2.
Assuming mafia grabs the vig shot today that would be two kills N2.
Seven alive D3 with three scum means we're in lylo.
Is it feasible that the mafia already have five coins? It's unlikely they started with five coins total. Otherwise they would most likely grab the vig shot and use it N1.
If they started with four coins total could they get to five tonight? Assuming Wheat is scum, he used at least two coins N1 for the cop investigation (because Shark bid two assuming Shark is town). That puts the scum total at two coins. Emo's death gave the scum all an additional coin so their total is now five coins. If no townie gave coins to scum yesterday then the only way they do not have five coins is if they started with three coins total.
So what does this mean in relation to Wheat and Shark? One of them is lying for sure. Shark claims to have bid two coins earlier than Wheat yet Wheat claims to have gotten the investigation. It can't be true that Shark is telling the truth and Wheat to have the investigation. It could be that Shark is telling the truth and Wheat is either lying about when he sent in his time or even if he won the bid (fellow scum could have won the investigation).
So who do we believe? If we lynch Shark and he turns town then we'll be down to seven on D3 as laid out above. However, we'll know that Wheat is lying so we'll easily lynch him. That puts us at five D4 which would again be lylo (five town, two scum).
Since a one-for-one trade isn't a good move for the mafia all of this hinges on whether or not the mafia can get the vig shot. This situation between Wheat and Shark could be a scum gambit that works only if they have the vig shot. Wheat would be sacrificed in a sense for two kills which is a better deal.
However, I can't really see scum even doing that. Being potentially in lylo tomorrow is certainly attractive to the scum, but there's so much that could go wrong:
Town manage to get vig shot, however unlikely that may be. Without the vig shot Wheat would get vigged if Shark flipped town.
Town manage to block the vig shot. If the mafia have spent all their coins today to get the vig shot they can't guarantee an unblockable shot so they could get blocked on either the vig shot or NK. They would need at least seven coins today to get the vig shot and make both kills unblockable. I find it unlikely they have all those coins. Blocking just one of those kills damages the whole gambit and makes Wheat's sacrifice in vain.
We don't lynch either Wheat of Shark for some reason but rather some other player who flips scum. In that scenario Wheat's investigated and if he's scum that puts the mafia in a really bad situation.
All of this would make this a really, really risky gambit by Wheat as scum. The payoff just wouldn't be enough given how bad it would be for the mafia if it backfired. Given all this I'm now inclined to believe Wheat over Shark.
Ninja edit: I see a rules issue has arisen. If it's the case that an investigation will pass to the next bidder should the investigation target be killed then all of the above analysis is moot. Sigh.
Fearmongering. This whole post reeks of it, and scaring people into not believing Shark.
The target must be a living player. Since Emo wasn't a living player when the trigger resolved then Shark's investigation was nullified. The investigation therefore went to the next bidder in line. That means it is possible that Shark submitted a two coin bib before Wheat yet still lost the investigation.
Of course it could be that one or both of them did not submit an investigation.
Discussing the rules fiasco, no real tells here that I saw.
I wasn't trying to address the choice of the investigation. I thought Caex was painting it as a simple case of one of them lying (however I misunderstood him). I was trying to point out that it most likely wouldn't be Wheat who was lying.
The possibilities are:
Wheat is lying. Unlikely because that would get him lynched since that gambit carries a lot of risk for not enough reward.
Shark is lying. Still possible.
Both are lying. If Shark is lynched and flips scum then Wheat gathers a good bit of townie points for outing Shark. It's feasible this is an attempt to plant scum Wheat as town, pun intended.
Neither are lying. Given how I understand the rules to work this option is still possible.
Basically it's very unlikely that just Wheat is lying and slightly unlikely in my opinion that both of them are lying.
More defense of Wheat here. As I was rereading Nis last week, this is where I knew he was scum. He KNOWS Wheat wasn't lying, and keeps calling him town because a scum wouldn't run that gambit, and that's exactly what happened.
Wasn't meant to be a vote. It was supposed to be a heading for the list.
Let me put it this way. I was ready for D1 to end. I thought it EP's behavior about asking me to vote yet chiding AE about ending D1 odd. He assuaged my fears so I ended the day. Before that, I felt it sporting to give proggy a chance to chime in on things, but then Dagger prodded him. I took the prod as a sign that proggy was not going to chime in. If he hadn't participated for days already what new information could he add about a forgone conclusion?
That's how I approach logic puzzles. Before the rule clarification the situation had to be one or both of you lying. I suspected it was you but I was trying to remain detached because it was certainly possible that Wheat was lying. I wasn't going to assert anything because logically nothing was certain.
Of course then Dagger had to step in and ruin all the fun.
Notice how I said it would be nice, not required. I also said we shouldn't stop the inevitable to wait for the replacement. I saw that zindabad replaced in and anything zindabad could have contributed then is still valid now. In fact, it's even moreso because we have another known alignment.
You're trying to rake me over the coals for doing exactly what I said I do. Could you explain why you felt D1 had to continue?
Wow, that's not what he said earlier, about it being highly unlikely that Wheat was lying. Now it's "certainly possible"? C'mon...
I hate these lists, mainly because mine are usually just two names with everyone sandwiched in between. I'll throw out who I think is the top and bottom at the moment. I do have one other player to throw in just because I'm not sure who gets my bottom spot.
Iso - Bonus entry! His assault on Foxlet appears like a gambit or something. Part of me wants to chalk it up to "Iso being Iso," as players here are fond of doing. Problem is, as I've said before, I have very little history here so I can't really write this off as an Iso meta play. Basically I'm conflicted as to whether I approach this as Iso doing something scummy or "Iso being Iso."
For scummiest I would say zindabad actually. His predecessor Artifice contributed nothing but observations that his computer is having problems. I can sympathize with that and I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. zindabad, however, has had ample time to contribute and there's definitely been a couple thing that have happened today to spur some sort of comment. Despite all this, zindabad has literally not said anything. greymon replaced after him and has contributed something. I know different players review things at a different pace, but zindabad, combined with Artifice's play earlier, appears to be deliberately lurking.
Towniest player would be myself of course. I don't think that will fly with you though.
So next in line would have to be Caex. I know he seems to be the soup de jour for townie play, but really he has been playing in the best interests of the town. Every time I think I've noticed him slip on something, like saying that Arnn asked for time off early, I find he was exactly correct when I review the thread. If he is scum then he deserves an award for looking not only like a townie, but the gorram mayor.
Notice that I bolded, underlined, italicized, color-changed, and drew huge arrows to this part of the post. We've been talking about this, scum don't like to do T/S lists because of how easily they're analyzed later in the game. This is a huge tell in my opinion.
Somebody who can find actual scummy behavior, not imagined behavior in two posts.
So you're willing to lynch anybody?
What good does announcing your Courier Post target do? If we lynch you, the gift does not go through. If we don't lynch you the mafia can NK that player to put more coins into the bank. Basically you'd be providing the mafia with extra coins.
The problem is you haven't really made a credible case off those two posts. When I read them I don't get any of what you see. When I read your explanation for why you see what you see I don't understand it. You're asking us to go with basically your gut feeling. I don't feel like lynching somebody over somebody else's gut feeling.
Shark didn't account for what happens if you or your CP target are killed before D3. Announcing your target is just a good way to let scum know how to get more coins.
More weak arguments against Iso, and protecting of Wheat.
Because I'm not you. I have no history with Fox. What you are taking for granted I lack.
The problem is that in a way town coins aren't as valuable as scum coins. Since the town can't coordinate who gets coins our buying power is reduced. An individual can only hope to have coins come his or her way without an accompanying NK. Trying to save up coins as a townie (or gather coins from others as you have asked) is taking a risk: keep too many without spending any and the mafia can ensure all your coins go into the pot all for the low cost of one coin. It's likely that they'll get that one coin back plus more off this saving townie so it's an easy decision for them.
On the flip side, scum coins should be treated as coming from one big pot. They can keep most of their coins with one player and use the rest to push through NKs or the vig shot. In addition, they don't really have much use for the Dark Cult since they don't have to fear NKs and anybody caught using it is going to be under suspicion. As pointed out, the only time a townie would use it if they were in danger of getting NK (which won't help too much because the kill can be pushed through anyway). Scum won't ever be put in that position.
In short, our coins are worth less because we must act with imperfect information and without coordination. Giving coins to town and scum on a one for one basis helps the mafia more than it helps us.
From just those two posts I can't. That's where I'm being wary. You asked us to trust you based on nothing more than the content of two posts and your gut feeling.
Not sure how you got that. Anybody can use the Holy Tabernacle and from the moment I replaced in I marked that as an ability most likely to be used as scum. Town has just two abilities that can be "pumped" by the HT: vig shot and investigation. Mafia has two: vig shot and NK (and investigation as well but I can't see that happening). Of these which are important to the mafia going through? Vig shot and NK, i.e. things that kill people.
What I meant was that we all get one coin. If we assume that townie coins are worth some fraction of a scum coin then if the scum get 3 coins and the town get 7 (as happened on EP's death) the town comes out way worse if that fraction is less than 1/2. We can't pin down a definite fraction for a townie coin, but it depends on how many of us are left, how many of us are confirmed town, and how well we can coordinate (which I'm not suggesting we do now). Once the number of scum start to decrease our coins become more powerful.
At this point we have to be careful that our coins don't end up in the pool because they're more valuable to scum than us.
Not at all. I can't even begin to fathom how you got that from what I said. Hopefully what I said above makes this clearer. Suffice it to say, you are obviously correct that we are better off killing scum with the most coins. However, there is a twist here: if we lynch scum today plus the NK tonight puts less than 5 coins in the bank the bank won't pay out. Will that help us or the mafia more? I'm not sure at the moment and I need to mull this over.
More fearmongering. He really doesn't want us pooling our coins together apparently.
That's not quite the sale you're trying to make it out to be. I've said a few times already I find your play odd and I'm not sure what to make of it.
Are we talking about the same thing? Dark Cult = doc protection. Holy Tabernacle = unblockable action. I said that if the mafia can deduce who has a large number of coins they can NK that person for sure by giving a coin to the Holy Tabernacle. The coin spent is likely to be at least repaid if they hit a person with a lot of coins. I'm not sure where you got that I was talking about the Dark Cult here. You want me to trust you despite sloppy play?
Have you been reading anything I've written? 1 townie coin =/= 1 scum coin at this time. We are working with more incomplete information and without coordination so our coins cannot be spent as effectively as the mafia can spend theirs.
More talk of our coins not being as valuable as the scums, when in fact ours prove to be very valuable.
I think I misspoke. I find your reputation odd. Early game had lots of explanation that tells against you don't really work because that's just "Iso being Iso." Asking for coins seemed strange because like I pointed out, townies with lots of coins are targets. Your quick attack on Fox was strange. I'm not sure what to make of it, though, since "Iso being Iso," but then again I don't know you so I'm not sure how I should factor things. Basically I'm finding you difficult to read because of your reputation.
I think I see where our disconnect it. I'm saying we shouldn't let scum know who has a lot of coins because the bank pays out coins in a way that favors the mafia (at this time). Even though town might get more coins doesn't make up for the fact that our coins at this time are worth less relative to scum coins. If I'm understanding your correctly you feel the opposite: the amount of coins the town would get offsets the disparate value.
Certainly. As the value of our coins and our ability to coordinate begins to rise the mafia's advantages lessen. I'm not sure yet if our coins will reach parity, and if they do if it would in time to be all that effective.
I just think at the moment it's important to prevent a large number of coins from being paid out by the bank.
Here he flip-flops and says that when we coordinate we put pressure on the Mafia, and it's true.
Scum would most likely just keep quiet if they stole an investigation. It keeps the number of lies and possible contradictions down. The mafia's greatest asset is the town's lack of information. It can be argued that no information is worse than misinformation because misinformation can at least be analyzed when it is discovered as bad (or at least hinted as bad).
I'm fine with Caex's 2.0 plan. This is one of those things I was saying about our buying power vs. the scum's buying power. We can't coordinate as well as they can, but if we can coordinate somehow then our buying power goes up.
More subtle defense of Wheat. Scum are going to keep quiet about the investigation, ergo Wheat=/=Scum.
Is it possible the mafia already have the vig shot? So here's what we know, assuming 3 scum:
If one member has at least 5 coins then he or she can gain vig shot today for use N2.
The mafia had at most 6 coins between them D1.
Mafia have gained 3 coins so far.
Member total now: (X+1) + (Y+1) + (Z+1) = A
To get the vig shot members Y and Z must have given at least 1 coin each to member X D1.
Change above formula to (X + 3) + (Y) + (Z) = A
For X+3 = 5, X = 2.
Did X start with 2 coins? Possibly.
This also assumes no townie sent coins to X D1.
If you believe Wheat is scum and faking the investigation on Arnn then the above is not possible: If Wheat is scum then some scum spent two coins last night. (X+Y+Z) = A - 2. If X and Y both start with 2 coins and Z starts with at least 1 coin then X can't have 5 coins today. Z gives X 1 coin D1 (X = 3). Y spends 2 coins N1 for cop shot (Y = 0). Bank pays out 1 coin to X (X = 4). This also assumes no townie sent coins to X D1.
In short, it can't both be possible that Wheat is scum faking an investigation and the mafia have the vig shot. We have to choose one of these to be true. If the scum do buy the vig shot (which could only be the scum using it at this point) then Wheat must be telling the truth.
A proposition: anybody who gave away coins D1 come forward about it. Name who you gave your coins to. Note I'm not suggesting we do this now. I'm putting it forth as an option since it could catch scum tomorrow.
Maths, fishing, and fearmongering. The math is really confusing (and I'm a math major). He fishes to try and figure out exactly who got coins, and who doesn't have any anymore. BUUT, he doesn't officially suggest this, its kinda like Peter's proposition to eat the kids. "I was just gonna say it jokingly, and then gauge your reaction and possibly go for it." /FamilyGuyreference
We would know the ability was used but we wouldn't know who used it. It's kind of like knowing that somebody farted in the elevator.
Certainly, but it also puts that player under a spotlight. As it is you don't trust Wheat at all even though you said yourself that he should have town points since he claimed to investigate someone. Wheat has put a story out there and if that story starts to be contradicted in the future then he'll wish he hadn't said anything (if he's scum faking an investigation).
Also, because of the kerfuffle between Wheat and Shark earlier the town also has a better grasp of the rules and knowledge of how things will go down when it comes to multiple people bidding for investigation. This is information that has helped the town. If Wheat was scum he would have been better off not admitting to the investigation; let the town chase phantoms for awhile.
Running the numbers and using Occam's Razor points to Wheat telling the truth. If the mafia use the vig shot tonight then Wheat is assuredly town because the mafia just don't have the coins to buy an investigation N1 and the vig shot today. Of course if somebody did give away a coin D1 then things change.
This does make me wonder about something, though. @mod: If the King's Justice is bought one day but not used that night is the King's Justice up "for sale" again? If not, will we know when the King's Justice has been acquired but not used?
Basically I want to know if attempting to acquire the King's Justice is pointless if it has already been acquired but not used.
No. Anybody who gave coins yesterday. If we know who received coins N1 then we'll know if the mafia have enough coins to buy a vig shot today in addition to Wheat lying (assuming he's scum). We can clear Wheat if the vig shot is used tonight and if no townie gave coins to anybody yesterday because it is impossible for the mafia to buy the vig shot if Wheat-as-scum spent 2 coins N1 to buy a cop shot.
As for giving coins to Caex and greymon, we know that they should get 5 coins between them, 4 if we mislynch today. (10 people - 2 (Caex, greymon) - 3 scum) assuming 3 scum. If they get less than 5 coins between them (or 4 if we mislynch) then we'll know some townie didn't give them a coin. Not sure what that says other than either a townie didn't want to go with the plan or didn't have a coin.
I think it's because if Caex is scum he'll have royally screwed the town. Now I don't think that's likely, but the possibility of it does make me shudder a little bit. No guts no glory though.
Why not keep quiet? All we would know is that the investigation was bought. We wouldn't know who bought it. No need to lie by scum and possibly get caught in a contradiction later. Everybody could say, "I didn't bid," or "I bid but didn't win it." Neither of those answers, however, helps us if everybody says it. It's like everybody claiming VT in a mass claim.
My point is, I believe that to scum it would be better to keep quiet about winning an investigation and let the town know that it was simply lost than to try to gin up a false investigation on a townie or "clear" one of your comrades. Iso's chaining investigation idea would clearly derail a false investigation plan or even just simple deductive reasoning as I'm saying with Wheat + vig shot.
He doesn't want Wheat investigated. Derails Iso's chaining idea solely because of this fact.
That's why I asked if anybody had given coins to anybody else D1. If scum does have at least one extra coin it's possible they have the vig shot and can blow Caex's plan out of the water.
Fearmongering, based on speculation about the vig shot.
I think Fox was saying what I've been saying: The mafia need at least one coin to get the vig shot today and that coin could have come from a townie D1. Fox even bolded the last sentence in the quote from my post: "Of course if somebody did give away a coin D1 then things change." When I read Fox's post in question I got the feeling that she was responding to my post in parts instead of in total.
I have to say your last post seems unusually aggressive.
Seems to defend Fox here a bit, this will come up later.
This assuages my fear a good bit. We'll know when somebody acquires the vig shot and we'll most likely know when it has been used. Since it hasn't been purchased yet I feel it's unlikely the mafia have 5 coins to buy it now.
Iso has my vote. Once the plan has been agreed to and we all send our coins I'll vote with haste.
This is very important. Our plan hinges on being able to outbid the mafia and keep them guessing.
We've already gone over this. The only way the mafia can buy the vig shot today and have Wheat-as-scum steal an investigation N1 would be if some townie gave the hoarding scum a coin D1. Now that doesn't mean that since the mafia haven't bought the vig shot yet Wheat is scum. We just know for certain it could be A or B but not A and B unless a townie gave scum a coin D1. We also know if the mafia do buy the vig shot today then Wheat cannot be scum (again, unless a townie gave scum a coin D1).
Notice how I keep bringing up the whole townie-coin-scum-D1 thing? If anybody gave a coin to anybody else D1 speak up about it. It can have important significance on the situation.
MORE defense on Wheat, and trying to get people to speak up about giving away coins. They want to know who has the most coins at this point.
I would like to agree with you, but I'm hesitant. I mean we are potentially putting our eggs into two baskets, both of which could be trashed if scum have just one more coin (assuming worst case scenario for town). Since nobody so far has said, "I gave a coin to such-and-such," I'm inclined to believe nobody gave a coin, but there are a couple people who haven't posted since this discussion began.
They could be sitting on buying it. Wait until the plan is in effect then buy the vig shot. I'm assuming we can't retract Courier Post actions so we could end up with giving away coins to two people who both get taken out tonight.
Hopefully you can see where I'm coming from. I'm acting with an abundance of caution because although I think your plan is good it can go horribly wrong. I'd like to cover all our bases.
Fearmongering about the plan. Not knowing which one of us to kill that night was terrible for the scum, and ended up costing them one of their members, AND in the long run I believe it cost them the game.
It's almost guaranteed that either you are greymon are going to get hit tonight. Either of your death's are most likely going to put at least 2 coins in the bank and that's assuming both of you have 0 coins now.
If the mafia gain the vig shot today then that's 5 coins into the bank upon your deaths (assuming every townie sends coins to one of you). If we start the plan and the mafia buys the vig shot right before day ends then we have no recourse. Both of you will die and all our coins are going to be wasted.
Given that information I can't see the mafia hitting anybody but both you and greymon if they get the vig shot today. Since we can't back out of the plan once it starts I'd like to be sure that the mafia cannot get the vig shot today.
Pretty much signed one of our Death Warrants. Trying to get us to back out of the plan, when Caex and I KNEW that one of us was gonna die.
This is Caex's first formulation of a plan. It specifically mentions buying an investigation. Here is the revised plan. Again, specifically mentions investigations.
Iso brings up a possible flaw with the plan, namely the mafia could NK Caex or greymon and vig the other.
I analyze the feasibility of the mafia already having the vig shot for use tonight. I conclude it's possible. Dagger later confirms that we'll know when the vig shot is purchased and that it cannot be purchased during twilight. Frankly the vig shot is a non-entity at this point because the mafia, if they can buy it now, need to buy it before the hammer vote.
I so want to lynch you Iso. You know the plan was for an investigation, not the cop shot. Why else would you point out that Caex and greymon could both get vigged under this plan?
Same with you Foxlet. In this post you comment on the original incarnation of the plan and even address how Caex's investigation targets don't change if Iso is scum. If you knew then that the plan was to make sure the town gets an investigation tonight why do you think now we're going for the vig shot? Big time FoS: Foxlet.
Here he Foses Foxlet. It makes no sense. It's almost like he's setting up his next mislynch, when earlier it appeared he was at her defense.
You are giving your thoughts on the plan about how tonight's investigation should be used. You even point at that since we just have two investigations left they should not be wasted.
In addition, pinky states that he wouldn't trust an investigation result from anybody on Caex's list, which includes you, or zind if anybody on that list + zind managed to get the investigation tonight. You respond. At this point you know you're on Caex's list which means you read the plan. You also have pieced together pinky's insinuation that if the plan doesn't go through anybody on the plan's list isn't to be trusted. I'm not sure how you didn't understand the plan at that time since you acted like you did.
Buddying with Pinky, which is important later. More slamming of Fox. So far he's slammed Albus, Iso, and Foxlet but continually defended Wheat.
Something important: zindabad is still on V/LA until the 12th. I think we should wait until he's back so he doesn't miss his opportunity to send a coin, if he hasn't already.
That's actually an interesting path to take. I think everybody should note who they sent a coin to. We might be able to catch scum later as people in the two groups are cleared. We know that at most four townies sent coins yesterday (because Iso was mislynched his Courier Post never went through). zindabad didn't send a coin yesterday because AE hammered. Caex and greymon probably didn't send a coin (although correct me if I'm wrong greymon).
I sent a coin to greymon.
Sent to Caex
Wheat
Sent to greymon
Nis
Didn't send a coin
zindabad (no fault)
Fishing. Also claims to have sent a coin to me, even though apparently Caex is the gorram mayor of TownTown.
Well, that means they were unlikely to get the shot D2 (and they didn't). They have 3 extra coins today so they most likely have enough for the vig shot now. Remember, the mafia is +6 coins over their starting number. -2 from Wheat (or some other scum member) means +4. It's highly likely the scum started with at least 1 coin.
It was an accident. I was testing my formatting (I wanted to make sure my blank line between "Sent to Caex" and "Sent to greymon" wasn't swallowed by the software. I simply forgot to move Wheat back under the greymon header before I posted. I corrected it right away.
So instead of voicing these objections yesterday you decide to just buck the plan and totally put the entire town in jeopardy? Your one action could have resulted in neither Caex or greymon getting the investigation. Your action might have resulted in the mafia have enough coins to get the vig shot today. You didn't think any of this through?! Guess what? This is the kind of stuff we discussed yesterday and still agreed to the plan.
So everybody has chimed in on who they sent coins to.
Sent to Caex
Shark
AE
Sent to greymon, received 2 coins
Wheat
Nis
Didn't send a coin
zindabad (through no fault of his own)
pinky (forgot)
Foxlet (sent coin to AE)
Let's break this down:
Caex had at least 1 coin D2 (we all did because the bank paid out). He died with 3 coins. Shark and AE both claim to have sent him a coin. Caex might have had nobody send him coins and had 3 coins D2.
greymon states he received 2 coins and that one of the people claiming to have sent him a coin, Wheat, is scum.
Of those who didn't follow through with the plan, one claims to have been prevented from executing on the plan, one claims to have forgotten, and one bucked the plan entirely. Good job guys.
From all of this we can't deduce anything. I wanted to see who sent coins to who because we know the buckets could only be so big. With the current bucketing we know nothing. Let me put it this way: pinky and Foxlet, if town, royally screwed everyone by not going with the plan. Foxlet went even further and gave an unknown person a coin; it's even worse because AE has been lurking so hard and has made some really bad plays. Why in the world would you give a coin to an unknown who has been scummy Foxlet? You obviously didn't like the odds with the agreed upon plan so you decided to go with a plan that has even less of a chance of working?
Smears Foxlet, which he was already setting this up so it doesn't come as a surprise.
That's pretty damning if it is true. Has there been a case where zindabad has replaced into a game with pinky? Just to be safe, has there been a game where zindabad has replaced in and not talked much.
@zindabad: Can you provide us with a list of all the games where you replaced in?
Starts to set up a mislynch on Zindy, based on what Pinky has to say.
We'd have to do it like N2 to avoid chaos. Two townies get sent coins and both bid for the investigation in hopes to beat the mafia. Unfortunately I'm not sure we'd have enough coins to distribute that way. With five townies that would be at most 3 coins split among two people. Not very good odds.
I say we keep our coins and each bid to see if we can get the investigation.
Against pooling the coins again, doesn't want the cop investigation to be won.
So at least one of AE or Fox is lying. Makes tomorrow interesting.
As for plan:
I'm fine with Shark and greymon making the investigation tonight. My preference for targets matches greymon: pinky or Fox.
Setting up AE and Fox for mislynches, but its also interesting to note he's preparing himself for a possible bus by naming his scumbuddy as one of his targets.
If I understand it correctly the Guild of Coins, what I've been calling the bank, doesn't pay out the coins it takes in. It pays out 1 coin to each living player if the number of coins put into it reaches or exceeds the threshold. Each time it does this the threshold increases by 2 coins.
Since Caex died last night and put in enough coins to meet or exceed the Guild's then threshold each of us should have received 1 coin at the beginning of the day.
Still trying to figure out how many coins the townsfolk have.
Where I was going with this is that even though the Guild took in 5 coins between Caex's and Iso's deaths, it paid out 8 coins at the beginning of today. The amount put in =/= the amount paid out.
Trying to cover up why he wants to know how much each of us have.
What I'm wondering is where greymon's second coin came from last night. He claims to have received 2 coins. I know I sent him one. Wheat claims to have sent him one but Wheat is marked as scum. Did Wheat or some scum actually send greymon a coin last night?
Speculating on where my coins came from. I think he was surprised because...wait for it....I believe Caex sent me a coin! He knew he was gonna be the one to go. I was confirmed town, but HE was the mouthpiece. He was the brain. So he was confused as hell on how I got the investigation.
I never defended Wheat's investigation choice. We went through this already:
And when did I jump to Wheat's defense? If you're talking about the bit at the beginning of D2 I was trying to puzzle out the seemingly impossible situation between Wheat and Shark.
FoS: pinky
Are you kidding me? This is obviously a gambit, and another bussing outlet if he needs to. I've seen another player on this site (Skander) do this before.
I'm here. I PM'd Dagger saying I'd be V/LA until today. Wasn't sure if it was a good idea to post it in thread during night.
I sent a coin to Shark as per the plan.
Nis: Shark
zindabad: Shark
pinky: Shark
AE: Shark
Fox: greymon
Shark died with 4 coins. He had at least 1 coin yesterday since the bank paid out at the beginning of yesterday. There is no way he received 4 coins last night. One of those who claimed to have given Shark a coin is lying.
I know I'm not lying so out of the remaining three the person I find most suspect is AE. He has bucked the plan twice.
Did you get the last investigation greymon?
Conveniently claims to have sent his coin to the dead guy. This by itself doesn't say much, but after everything else...yeah.
That's not how it works. The Courier Post sends coins at the beginning of night before any other actions are processed. Shark received at most 3 coins last night.
Not necessarily. It could be that both you and greymon are scum and some townie is lying about giving Shark a coin. It could be you are scum and actually gave a coin to greymon. It could be greymon is scum and received a coin from you who are town. It could be you're scum who did not give a coin to greymon but the scum who claims to have given a coin to Shark actually game it greymon.
Some of these possibilities are certainly more likely than others. The most likely is that at least one scum is hiding among the four of us who claim to have given coins to Shark. That is one I am willing to assume since it has the most evidence going for it and satisfies Occam's Razor.
What I really want to know is why AE did not go along with the plan again.
Subtly trying to set me up. Implanting the idea that I could be scum, even though zero of my play has indicated this, nor has Arn's before me.
We know for a fact he got a coin D3 from the bank (we all did). We also all got a coin D2 from the bank. What we can't assume was that Shark did not spend that coin N2. Basically we don't know X. We do know that Shark received Y coins N3 and died with 4 coins:
4 = X + Y + 1
Y must be between 0 and 3 because X cannot be less than 0 (we don't have credit here).
Since we have four people claiming to have sent coins to Shark N3 (Y), and we know he received those coins before he died, we know that at least one of those people are lying. That is all we know. Y cannot be 4. It must be between 0 and 3 (and I know it must be between 1 and 3 because I know I'm not lying. You don't).
We can't assume that all of the remaining scum (if we do have more than one remaining scum) are among the group that gave coins to Shark N3. It's a safe assumption that at least one of the people in the Shark group is scum, but then again, as I've already said, the last remaining scum could be you or greymon or both.
Basically I'm accounting for all possibilities. greymon is not confirmed town because there is no reliable investigation result on himself. He is firmly in my townie camp, but when listing possibilities I like to list them all no matter how remote. Part of this game is a logic puzzle and even a remote solution to a puzzle can be the correct one.
You did not send a coin N2. Fox sent a coin to you N2 instead of to Caex or greymon. You both bucked the plan.
I do believe you slipped since there was no plan N1. Vote: Archmage Eternal
More confusing math, and assumptions. Arguments against AE are weak considering they were false.
You are correct. I was misremembering. pinky didn't send a coin because he forgot. You did send a coin. My mistake. Totally on me for not looking back a few pages. Sorry.
I'm not trying to say you're wrong. I'm trying to say we need to account for every possibility. Since we do not know how many coins Shark spent on any night we do not know how many coins he had going into N3. The only facts we know is that he had at least 1 coin at the start of N3 and died with 4 coins. Anything more is speculation.
I will amend what I said earlier about how at least one of the four players in the Shark pool is lying about giving him a coin: it can be possible if Shark spent a coin on the Dark Cult in addition to bidding on the Begger's Sect and the mafia spent a coin on the Holy Tabernacle to override Shark's protection. On N3 Shark could have received 4 coins, spent the rest of his of coins on the DC, bid 4 coins on the investigation, and been killed with 4 coins. I hadn't considered the Dark Cult/Holy Tabernacle before because I honestly haven't given them any thought for a few days now.
My "I'm not lying," was to show that while I'm evaluating the situation from somebody in the Shark pool, you shouldn't. Unless you are scum you have no way to know which of us in the Shark pool, if any, are lying. Despite it being very unlikely, you have the possibility that all of us are lying; for me I know I'm not so I don't have that possibility. That was all my statement was.
I keep pounding on the fact that this situation is a logic puzzle. We need to list every possibility and then discard certain ones. You are trying to state that all possibilities where Shark started N3 with less than 2 coins are not possible. I'm trying to say that is a bad move because the math points to him starting with at least 1 coin but does not suggest starting with at least more than that.
More coin hypotheses, and assumptions, and "Hi guys I'm not lying!"
4 = X + Y
X = number of coins Shark had going into N3. X >= 1
Y = number of coins Shark received. 0 <= Y <= 3
I think my +1 to the equation before was throwing Fox off. That +1 was supposed to be the coin Shark received D3. I've rolled it into X now.
More confusing maths. Seriously I love math, but this made my head hurt. I also don't trust math in mafia very easily because as someone who has taken more math than most people do EVER I know how easy it is to skew the numbers in your favor.
I think I see what you're saying now. We're just approaching this from different ends. I ran the numbers some more and I think my mistake is not emphasizing how many coins Shark started with. While it is safe to say that Shark started N3 >= 1 coin you are correct that it is far more likely he started N3 >= 2 coins.
What did happen to zindabad by the way? It has been five days.
Calling out Zindy, trying to get away from this discussion.
Fox did have misgivings about the plan with the reasoning that she believed we were pooling coins to get the vig shot. We had a little tiff over that. At no point, however, did she state she was not going to follow through with the plan N2 (although AE did hammer Iso before we were all ready for day to end).
Defending of Fox again, after a "Huge FoS". Just odd.
So you'd rather "investigate" without getting input from everybody? What purpose does that serve? If you'd like I can link to the bit between Fox and I so you can get what is written in stone (so to speak) instead of relying on recollections. I'm not trying to speak for Fox. I'm trying to provide salient information to your question. At not point did I claim to be speaking for Fox nor did I direct Fox not to answer.
This post confused me at first, until I realized that Drey replaced in the middle of a Day. They didn't have time to talk at night, so they have to communicate in thread.
It was somewhat successful because we did win the investigation that night. However, because AE ended D2 early zindabad was not able to send in a coin. Fox sent a coin to AE instead of to greymon or Caex. pinky (you) did not send a coin at all. Since 3 people didn't send coins correctly we weren't able to bucket everybody into two camps which would have helped later on.
N3 plan has been significantly better. AE deviated and sent a coin to greymon instead of Shark, but we do that it's very likely that two people in the Shark pool are lying.
We know some scum won that investigation. Most likely it was Wheat given how little coins he had when he died, but the coins for that investigation could have come from any scum member. We know the scum are -2 coins because of that. We also know they are -X coins for winning the investigation last night. How many coins did you bid last night greymon? We might be able to estimate how many coins they have left.
That was never figured out. Both Wheat and I claimed to have sent a coin to greymon N2 and greymon claimed to have received 2 coins. I do think Wheat or some other scum sent a coin to greymon that night because the only other possibility was Caex. Caex died with 5 coins. We had two people claim to send him a coin. That leaves him with 3 which is certainly possible on D2 (start with 2, bank paid out 1). Starting with 4 coins D2 was highly unlikely so I don't think Caex gave greymon a coin N2. The possibilities are that some scum actually gave greymon a coin or one of zindabad or pinky sent a coin to greymon and lied about it.
More implanting subtle hints that I might be lying, fishing about how many coins I have, and trying to say the scum have less (or more) coins than they actually do.
I tend to be vote shy. Not really sure why but I vote mainly when I feel confident that somebody is scum. Occasionally I'll vote to pressure somebody, but that's restricted to D1 and mostly for lurkers or fence-sitters.
As for town/scum games:
Stuff I Like Mafia - most recent town game but I did absolutely awful. First game after a few years and I let a forced no lynch demoralize me.
Joss Whedon Mafia - scum and lynched D1. Couldn't help myself and claimed watcher. I was Giles after all.
Afterlife - town bodyguard. Took a bullet for the cop N2. Not a great game because my house was hit by Snowmageddon soon after the game started.
That was kind of fun reminiscing about old games.
Defends being vote-shy, but I can't understand why. At this point he hammered Albus, and has thrown his vote around at least a little.
AE and Fox: For the reasons DRey laid out. I hate to /barn him but I'm pressed for time for the next few days so I can't really go back and do a proper analysis.
Fox and greymon: I'm still open to the possibility that greymon and Wheat ran a spectacular gambit to plant greymon as firmly town. greymon did claim to have received just one and Fox claims to have sent a coin to greymon prompting to greymon to "clear Fox." Granted it was early in the day. The way Fox fought against me asserting that the two scum must be in the Shark pool sticks out at me.
It's already been said why this post is bad, but I'll reiterate. In either scenario he feels Fox is scum, yet votes for AE. Also makes an excuse as to why he won't be around, and once again tries to implant the idea of me being scum in everyone's head.
Wait. I'm trying to smear you? And DRey is as well? Where?
I'm just keeping a possibility open. It's something that has been nagging me but it's nothing I would consider a smear. I feel more strongly about Fox and AE than Fox and you. The Fox and you pairing is the only other possibility I feel it could be, that's why I listed it.
I'd like it. Can't defend myself if nothing concrete is presented.
Of course we have just five days left so some decision should be made.
I believe you are trying to subtly implicate me. Throw just enough doubt in that maybe people will believe you subconsciously. Also, here it is, I'm interested in your defense.
I've been too lazy to change my vote. I'd be happy with either one of you being lynched today because I think you're both scum. I keep saying I'm open to the possibility of Fox and greymon being scum, but it's a remote possibility.
This is TERRIBLE. Too lazy=scum win. I'm too lazy to do a PBPA, but if it's gonna help us win I'll sit up after working my ass off all day and do it over the course of 3 hours. You don't care which one of them is going to be lynched because you know either way you'll win.
Sum up:
The only things that Nis has done this game have been to defend Wheat religiously, fearmonger, fish, and smear.
My vote stands, and I'm hoping this satisfies anyone who asked me to do this because I worked hard enough on it.
Will be working on the PBPA for most of the night tonight, and hopefully I don't fall asleep doing it.
By the way, DRey did seal his on fate with that last post about lynching fox, then Nis.
AE thinks Nis is scum, I think Nis is scum, Fox thinks Nis is scum, and apparently so does Drey...sooo who does he advocate voting?
Not Nis?! Are you kidding me? We all think he's scum, and you're like "Umm...no guys let's lynch Fox now" rather than "yeah let's lynch the guy we all think is scum and figure out the rest later?"
Yeah, we vote for Nis now and you tomorrow. You're showing a sense of urgency, to get this game to go to Night so you can win, and it's not gonna happen.
@Foxlet: Nobody should have taken me for confirmed town because WG said I was. When he flipped scum though, I'm the closest we've got. Go back and reread me and Arn, and you see that he was the towniest player while he was here, and I have done absolutely the best I could at every turn of this game to ensure the town wins. I invite everyone to take a closer look at me if they have any kind of suspicions, because that's what we NEED to do. It's why I took a closer look at Nis, because I got tired of him getting a free pass. Something didn't add up to me, and when I looked it jumped right off the page at me.
I caught the scum team, and they are BOTH trying to smear me.
Drey, nothing personal, but I think you're being arrogant, and your tl;dr posts are aggravating. You're droning on and on without really saying anything. I know fluff, and your posts are fluff. I've been playing this game a LONG time, and cut my teeth when some of the best mafia players on this site cut theirs. I went a little crazy, and left the site for awhile, and while I may be rusty and quite frankly lazy (I can't find the time or the energy to go back and quote stuff the way I should, or do PBPA, etc.) I can read people. My skill (or lackthereof) has nothing to do with this. Is there a possibility I'm wrong? Absolutely, but I've felt Nis has been scum since the beginning of this Day, and now I'm positive of it. And you coaching him, buddying him, and shining the spotlight so hard on other people has made me believe you're the other scum.
There's 6 of us left:
Me
Zindabad
Foxlet
Archmage_Eternal
Drey
Nis
Zindy has read town to me since the beginning. Scum don't come up with arguments the way his was earlier. He garnered town points in my eyes, and has stayed this way. Fox was largely up in the air for me, and oddly enough if I were to want to lynch her it would only because Iso pegged her as scum, but that's not enough to go on. Iso is overconfident in his reads at best, and her reactions as of late peg her town in my eyes. AE is a lurker. I've played other games with him (back in '09, when I was starting, but it was still the same). HE. LURKS. Lurking is a null tell, and since he is willing to vote Nis who I feel is 100%scum I'm willing to save him for the next day for closer evaluation if need be.
If anyone wants my PBPA of Nis let me know. I'll do my best to do it, but like I said if you go and search this thread for all his posts, and start reading you'll see why I think he's scum right now.
Vote: Nis
I will no longer be cooperating with anything Drey suggests, as I feel he is the other scum member.
When I flip, and the town has the night to reread and think about stuff look at my wagon. Even to those who are convinced I'm scum now, examine it and I think you'll figure out that there are at least two scum on it. Beware Iso, because he is seeming too hurried, and it seems like he is already preparing for a D2 mislynch.
I don't mind dying D1 as long as it's not in vain, and you guys actually garner information out of it. There's a wealth of information to be had here, look especially close at those people talking about my hypothetical being any more than that: a hypothetical statement.
I'm done checking this thread, hopefully the mod will send me a PM when I'm dead and at least let me see what my other two abilities were because I was really excited to see them.
Go town, good luck, all that good stuff. And ANALYZE MY WAGON DURING N1!!
The ability makes sense when you read it, why are you still on it? Like I said, you haven't really rubbed me the wrong way yet but with Shark being called out for fishing, I just thought it looked bad that you were still trying to obtain more information about his role.
Too tired to do it now, but my scum suspect that I'm 99% sure of is Nis at the moment. Drey is a close second after reading his last 87,000 posts in a row. I will post my case against Nis tomorrow hopefully, but if everyone goes back and searches for all his posts in this thread it should become painfully obvious. The only reason I didn't say anything before was because I wanted to give this thread some time to cough up the second scum, and I think it did.
I'm a mathematics major, so nobody can pull the wool over my eyes when it comes to statistics. Using statistics is one of the worst things you can do to get your point across, because with the flick of the wrist they can become slanted in your favor. EX:
Yadier Molina for the St. Louis Cardinals is hitting around .317 this year, exceptionally well for a catcher. But you take this statistic to someone who doesn't know baseball all that well and say "this guy is crap, he's creating an out around 68% of the time, and they're gonna go "Wow, yeah he isn't doing that well."
A rough example I know, but it just goes to show that you can always stack statistics in your favor, and I'm having a feeling in my gut that that is what DRey is doing right now.
Alright I'm all caught up, and here's what I think:
I'm getting scum vibes from Shark. He's jumping back between me and iPot (the two major wagons at this point) because I think he knows that no matter which one of us dies, we're going to be a mislynch. His play just seems way too hesistant. A wagon gets rolling, and all the sudden he jumps off of it, hoping that a couple other people will end the day and he can point and say "hey look guys, I wasn't on that wagon!".
With that said Unvote
I no longer feel that iPot is scum, after his claim and defense of his Oog stuff. The possibility of someone looking stuff up on his computer while he was gone didn't once occur to me, but recently I got flack Oog from a girl I'm talking to on Facebook because my brother was doing the same thing.
If I were to be lynched right now, the town should look very heavily at Aud, Shark, and possibly PinkFloyd. PF hasn't really rubbed me the wrong way on anything except the fishing of iPot's role. Everyone is right, with alignments having no bearing on roles, all this fishing for information of people's roles is bad in my opinion.
Just to clarify, I didn't use your role as an indicator of alignment. I clarified the function of your role, since Audinho had tried to simplify it, but did so incorrectly. I said at the end of my post that an ability that might be more useful to scum than town does not equate to you being scum, as I had previously brought up during discussion of you that we can't use your role PM as indicative of alignment due to the two separate PMs. I simply stated that it's a weird ability for town, as it makes it so that your target can't be protected or cop-confirmed, leaving them exposed to an NK if you are scum. If you are town, it still leaves the person vulnerable, so it is not the most useful ability for a townie to have. As Audinho stated when he followed up, though, it could be construed as scummy if you prayed for this ability rather than praying to another god to see if those abilities might be more actively useful to town.
Why did you choose to pray to Clotho if your Compassion ability is this when you could uncover another ability that might be more useful to the town Day 1 (and at the very least give you more information about your other abilities)?
I sometimes overevaluate abilities, and that ability seemed pretty powerful to me. It also prevents them from being roleblocked, jailed, made to disappear for a day, etc. And I also misunderstood how the powers worked at first, and thought that I would be guaranteed to be able to use my ability if I knew what it was, so I wanted to go into N1 with an ability I knew I could use rather than one that was up in the air. But now I understand I have to pray to use it no matter what, so assuming I survive this I will be praying to probably the knowledge goddess (can't think of her name off the top of my head).
No, I'm literally pseudovoting you. If you are town, then me not putting you to L-1 prevents scum quicklynching. If you are scum, then me not putting you to L-1 prevents you from suiciding and ending the day, and I feel there is more discussion to be had. Either case leads to you not dying, hence giving you ample chance to sway the votes away from you. I don't see why you're having any problems with this.
Fence-sitting. I have a problem with fence-sitting because if I get lynched, when I come up town you can say "well I wasn't voting for him, I was being patient, etc. etc." but right now you still have your weight behind a wagon that is of someone people believe to be scum. So I think you know I'm town, and you want to put your support into mislynching me but want to distance yourself enough that you're not incriminated D2. Congratulations on just being promoted to a scum suspect in my eyes. Doesn't mean squat right now but if/when I die it will
To the rest of the town: THAT is the kind of stuff we need to be looking into. Scum tells, fence sitting, etc. Not something that was said that was obviously meant to be hypothetical. Lynch me if you must, but don't reach so much on D2, the scum is going to keep making slip-ups like that in this game. Is Aud my top suspect? Absolutely not right now I'm still on iPot, but fence-sitting is not a good thing. Being cautious, and level-headed is and it looks a lot like fence-sitting on the surface, but in my opinion Aud is setting this up so he can say that he didn't want to vote me today and garner townie points. People forget "pseudo-votes" way more easily than they forget actual ones.
Manders, a claim would be nice. I've had a town read on her for most of the game, and that's not changing unless Iso sways me with his case.
G_D just keeps digging, in my opinion. Using scare tactics to make us say "ok brah, we believe you, no need to hammer" isn't going to work. WHEN you hammer I'll believe you're an actor, but not until then. And it's not going to help you any if you hammer somebody before we're ready to end the day, as that's anti-town.
Just to clarify, he did not say that it roleblocked the target, just that non-kill effects won't work on them. It's a weird ability, though. So, they can't be Cop-confirmed, protected by an actual Doc/Bodyguard, or anything else? It seems scummy, since it makes it so the target is completely vulnerable to a kill, but since role and alignment were provided separately, it doesn't explicitly make him scum.
I would also like Iso to weigh in on your question, especially in the context of greymon calling the other three members of his wagon out but not you and me.
@greymon: After mentioning Iso, JD and iPot, you say that no one has anything on you. You completely ignore my post where I looked at your other posts. Why did you ignore them?
I didn't call you out because you had reasoning behind your vote. Shark has read town to me all game, which is why I didn't call him out.
JD is bandwagoning, iPot is omgusucking, and Iso just voted me. No evidence, no backing, just "I got this guys, I'll explain later".
You on the other hand, shame on you for trying to use my role as an indicator of alignment, it's public game knowledge that alignments were decided seperately from roles.
@Aud: Way to fence sit there bro. You're literally sitting on the fence right now. Why would I want to choke off discussion when it appears that discussion is the only way I'm going to prevent a mislynch?
Hmm, so I'm at L-2 in the course of one night...and this wagon isn't moving fast or anything? /sarcasm.
Oh well, I have a feeling there are some terrible scum players on my wagon, and it should be revealed D2 if I croak, but without further ado:
I'm a Traveler. I'm a member of the Compassion church, so I know my compassion ability which is:
If my prayer is answered by Clotho, I can move any player to a safe location, and non-kill effects won't work on them.
Then I have a Knowledge and Determination ability that I don't know what they do yet, but I was praying to Clotho since D1 because I knew my ability was pretty decent at protecting people from being roleblocked, so I figured I would use that one N1 and then pray to my Determination God D2.
Also my alignment PM said I was Town and I win when all the Eyes are recovered.
If/when I die the town needs to look at JD, iPot, and Iso. Iso is being Iso, but usually he gives some kind of excuse/reason as to why he is voting someone. In my experience it's usually terrible and feeds his ego, but it's there. Nobody has given anything on me except the terrible reasoning behind one sentence that was meant to be hypothetical. So while I don't think my lynch today is the best play we could've made, I'm actually happy with it because it will provide knowledge and leads D2 when I flip, so either way doesn't really bother me.
No content.
This is the first post with content in it, and the first one that spiked on my radar. Color change is mine to highlight this. He's implanting the idea that everyone who uses the Dark Cult is obvscum, because the scum don't want to have to continue spending coins on the Holy Tabernacle to ensure that their kills go through.
No content.
His reasoning on Albus was weak. I've said before that as I was reading this game before I replaced in Albus never seemed all that scummy, and he gives like 2 descriptive adjectives as to why Albus is scum.
Taking clues from his scumbuddy, waiting to see what she would do. Also, really don't like the fact that he pushed the Albus lynch before Arn was replaced.
Pandering, making sure that he doesn't look scummy by quickhammering. He knew Albus was a goner, so he didn't mind having to wait.
Hammers Albus. To this point, he has said things in 2 whole posts about why he thinks Albus is scum, and the reasoning is flimsy.
Defends Wheat, hard. He knew Wheat wasn't lying about the investigation, because Wheat DID win it, so he knew Wheat wouldn't get counterclaimed.
Pandering to the town. Realizes he defended Wheat a little too hard so had to backtrack.
Fearmongering. This whole post reeks of it, and scaring people into not believing Shark.
Discussing the rules fiasco, no real tells here that I saw.
More defense of Wheat here. As I was rereading Nis last week, this is where I knew he was scum. He KNOWS Wheat wasn't lying, and keeps calling him town because a scum wouldn't run that gambit, and that's exactly what happened.
Trying to defend the hammer.
Wow, that's not what he said earlier, about it being highly unlikely that Wheat was lying. Now it's "certainly possible"? C'mon...
Notice that I bolded, underlined, italicized, color-changed, and drew huge arrows to this part of the post. We've been talking about this, scum don't like to do T/S lists because of how easily they're analyzed later in the game. This is a huge tell in my opinion.
Argument with Iso. Not much here.
More defense of Wheat. I can't believe none of us caught on to this at this point.
More weak arguments against Iso, and protecting of Wheat.
Fearmongering.
More fearmongering. He really doesn't want us pooling our coins together apparently.
More talk of our coins not being as valuable as the scums, when in fact ours prove to be very valuable.
More arguing with Iso.
Here he flip-flops and says that when we coordinate we put pressure on the Mafia, and it's true.
No content.
More subtle defense of Wheat. Scum are going to keep quiet about the investigation, ergo Wheat=/=Scum.
Maths, fishing, and fearmongering. The math is really confusing (and I'm a math major). He fishes to try and figure out exactly who got coins, and who doesn't have any anymore. BUUT, he doesn't officially suggest this, its kinda like Peter's proposition to eat the kids. "I was just gonna say it jokingly, and then gauge your reaction and possibly go for it." /FamilyGuyreference
Defending Wheat hardcore.
He doesn't want Wheat investigated. Derails Iso's chaining idea solely because of this fact.
Fearmongering, based on speculation about the vig shot.
Seems to defend Fox here a bit, this will come up later.
No content.
MORE defense on Wheat, and trying to get people to speak up about giving away coins. They want to know who has the most coins at this point.
Fearmongering about the plan. Not knowing which one of us to kill that night was terrible for the scum, and ended up costing them one of their members, AND in the long run I believe it cost them the game.
Pretty much signed one of our Death Warrants. Trying to get us to back out of the plan, when Caex and I KNEW that one of us was gonna die.
No content.
Ready to hammer again, otherwise no content.
No content.
Here he Foses Foxlet. It makes no sense. It's almost like he's setting up his next mislynch, when earlier it appeared he was at her defense.
Buddying with Pinky, which is important later. More slamming of Fox. So far he's slammed Albus, Iso, and Foxlet but continually defended Wheat.
Pandering to the town.
Eagerness to find out if they hit the right guy.
Fishing. Also claims to have sent a coin to me, even though apparently Caex is the gorram mayor of TownTown.
No content.
No content.
Fearmongering.
No content.
More fishing, it's all about who has the most coins.
Smears Foxlet, which he was already setting this up so it doesn't come as a surprise.
Starts to set up a mislynch on Zindy, based on what Pinky has to say.
Against pooling the coins again, doesn't want the cop investigation to be won.
Setting up AE and Fox for mislynches, but its also interesting to note he's preparing himself for a possible bus by naming his scumbuddy as one of his targets.
Still trying to figure out how many coins the townsfolk have.
Trying to cover up why he wants to know how much each of us have.
Speculating on where my coins came from. I think he was surprised because...wait for it....I believe Caex sent me a coin! He knew he was gonna be the one to go. I was confirmed town, but HE was the mouthpiece. He was the brain. So he was confused as hell on how I got the investigation.
Are you kidding me? This is obviously a gambit, and another bussing outlet if he needs to. I've seen another player on this site (Skander) do this before.
No content.
Conveniently claims to have sent his coin to the dead guy. This by itself doesn't say much, but after everything else...yeah.
Subtly trying to set me up. Implanting the idea that I could be scum, even though zero of my play has indicated this, nor has Arn's before me.
More confusing math, and assumptions. Arguments against AE are weak considering they were false.
Gets called out by AE and backs off.
More coin hypotheses, and assumptions, and "Hi guys I'm not lying!"
More confusing maths. Seriously I love math, but this made my head hurt. I also don't trust math in mafia very easily because as someone who has taken more math than most people do EVER I know how easy it is to skew the numbers in your favor.
Calling out Zindy, trying to get away from this discussion.
Defending of Fox again, after a "Huge FoS". Just odd.
This post confused me at first, until I realized that Drey replaced in the middle of a Day. They didn't have time to talk at night, so they have to communicate in thread.
More communication with his scum partner.
No content.
No content.
No content.
More implanting subtle hints that I might be lying, fishing about how many coins I have, and trying to say the scum have less (or more) coins than they actually do.
Defends being vote-shy, but I can't understand why. At this point he hammered Albus, and has thrown his vote around at least a little.
This sounds like desperation to get anyone lynched so they can win, because they know they're at lylo.
It's already been said why this post is bad, but I'll reiterate. In either scenario he feels Fox is scum, yet votes for AE. Also makes an excuse as to why he won't be around, and once again tries to implant the idea of me being scum in everyone's head.
I believe you are trying to subtly implicate me. Throw just enough doubt in that maybe people will believe you subconsciously. Also, here it is, I'm interested in your defense.
This is TERRIBLE. Too lazy=scum win. I'm too lazy to do a PBPA, but if it's gonna help us win I'll sit up after working my ass off all day and do it over the course of 3 hours. You don't care which one of them is going to be lynched because you know either way you'll win.
Sum up:
The only things that Nis has done this game have been to defend Wheat religiously, fearmonger, fish, and smear.
My vote stands, and I'm hoping this satisfies anyone who asked me to do this because I worked hard enough on it.
By the way, DRey did seal his on fate with that last post about lynching fox, then Nis.
AE thinks Nis is scum, I think Nis is scum, Fox thinks Nis is scum, and apparently so does Drey...sooo who does he advocate voting?
Not Nis?! Are you kidding me? We all think he's scum, and you're like "Umm...no guys let's lynch Fox now" rather than "yeah let's lynch the guy we all think is scum and figure out the rest later?"
Yeah, we vote for Nis now and you tomorrow. You're showing a sense of urgency, to get this game to go to Night so you can win, and it's not gonna happen.
PBPA commensing
@Foxlet: Nobody should have taken me for confirmed town because WG said I was. When he flipped scum though, I'm the closest we've got. Go back and reread me and Arn, and you see that he was the towniest player while he was here, and I have done absolutely the best I could at every turn of this game to ensure the town wins. I invite everyone to take a closer look at me if they have any kind of suspicions, because that's what we NEED to do. It's why I took a closer look at Nis, because I got tired of him getting a free pass. Something didn't add up to me, and when I looked it jumped right off the page at me.
Drey, nothing personal, but I think you're being arrogant, and your tl;dr posts are aggravating. You're droning on and on without really saying anything. I know fluff, and your posts are fluff. I've been playing this game a LONG time, and cut my teeth when some of the best mafia players on this site cut theirs. I went a little crazy, and left the site for awhile, and while I may be rusty and quite frankly lazy (I can't find the time or the energy to go back and quote stuff the way I should, or do PBPA, etc.) I can read people. My skill (or lackthereof) has nothing to do with this. Is there a possibility I'm wrong? Absolutely, but I've felt Nis has been scum since the beginning of this Day, and now I'm positive of it. And you coaching him, buddying him, and shining the spotlight so hard on other people has made me believe you're the other scum.
There's 6 of us left:
Me
Zindabad
Foxlet
Archmage_Eternal
Drey
Nis
Zindy has read town to me since the beginning. Scum don't come up with arguments the way his was earlier. He garnered town points in my eyes, and has stayed this way. Fox was largely up in the air for me, and oddly enough if I were to want to lynch her it would only because Iso pegged her as scum, but that's not enough to go on. Iso is overconfident in his reads at best, and her reactions as of late peg her town in my eyes. AE is a lurker. I've played other games with him (back in '09, when I was starting, but it was still the same). HE. LURKS. Lurking is a null tell, and since he is willing to vote Nis who I feel is 100%scum I'm willing to save him for the next day for closer evaluation if need be.
If anyone wants my PBPA of Nis let me know. I'll do my best to do it, but like I said if you go and search this thread for all his posts, and start reading you'll see why I think he's scum right now.
Vote: Nis
I will no longer be cooperating with anything Drey suggests, as I feel he is the other scum member.
When I flip, and the town has the night to reread and think about stuff look at my wagon. Even to those who are convinced I'm scum now, examine it and I think you'll figure out that there are at least two scum on it. Beware Iso, because he is seeming too hurried, and it seems like he is already preparing for a D2 mislynch.
I don't mind dying D1 as long as it's not in vain, and you guys actually garner information out of it. There's a wealth of information to be had here, look especially close at those people talking about my hypothetical being any more than that: a hypothetical statement.
I'm done checking this thread, hopefully the mod will send me a PM when I'm dead and at least let me see what my other two abilities were because I was really excited to see them.
Go town, good luck, all that good stuff. And ANALYZE MY WAGON DURING N1!!
The ability makes sense when you read it, why are you still on it? Like I said, you haven't really rubbed me the wrong way yet but with Shark being called out for fishing, I just thought it looked bad that you were still trying to obtain more information about his role.
I'm a mathematics major, so nobody can pull the wool over my eyes when it comes to statistics. Using statistics is one of the worst things you can do to get your point across, because with the flick of the wrist they can become slanted in your favor. EX:
Yadier Molina for the St. Louis Cardinals is hitting around .317 this year, exceptionally well for a catcher. But you take this statistic to someone who doesn't know baseball all that well and say "this guy is crap, he's creating an out around 68% of the time, and they're gonna go "Wow, yeah he isn't doing that well."
A rough example I know, but it just goes to show that you can always stack statistics in your favor, and I'm having a feeling in my gut that that is what DRey is doing right now.
I'm getting scum vibes from Shark. He's jumping back between me and iPot (the two major wagons at this point) because I think he knows that no matter which one of us dies, we're going to be a mislynch. His play just seems way too hesistant. A wagon gets rolling, and all the sudden he jumps off of it, hoping that a couple other people will end the day and he can point and say "hey look guys, I wasn't on that wagon!".
With that said Unvote
I no longer feel that iPot is scum, after his claim and defense of his Oog stuff. The possibility of someone looking stuff up on his computer while he was gone didn't once occur to me, but recently I got flack Oog from a girl I'm talking to on Facebook because my brother was doing the same thing.
If I were to be lynched right now, the town should look very heavily at Aud, Shark, and possibly PinkFloyd. PF hasn't really rubbed me the wrong way on anything except the fishing of iPot's role. Everyone is right, with alignments having no bearing on roles, all this fishing for information of people's roles is bad in my opinion.
I sometimes overevaluate abilities, and that ability seemed pretty powerful to me. It also prevents them from being roleblocked, jailed, made to disappear for a day, etc. And I also misunderstood how the powers worked at first, and thought that I would be guaranteed to be able to use my ability if I knew what it was, so I wanted to go into N1 with an ability I knew I could use rather than one that was up in the air. But now I understand I have to pray to use it no matter what, so assuming I survive this I will be praying to probably the knowledge goddess (can't think of her name off the top of my head).
Fence-sitting. I have a problem with fence-sitting because if I get lynched, when I come up town you can say "well I wasn't voting for him, I was being patient, etc. etc." but right now you still have your weight behind a wagon that is of someone people believe to be scum. So I think you know I'm town, and you want to put your support into mislynching me but want to distance yourself enough that you're not incriminated D2. Congratulations on just being promoted to a scum suspect in my eyes. Doesn't mean squat right now but if/when I die it will
To the rest of the town: THAT is the kind of stuff we need to be looking into. Scum tells, fence sitting, etc. Not something that was said that was obviously meant to be hypothetical. Lynch me if you must, but don't reach so much on D2, the scum is going to keep making slip-ups like that in this game. Is Aud my top suspect? Absolutely not right now I'm still on iPot, but fence-sitting is not a good thing. Being cautious, and level-headed is and it looks a lot like fence-sitting on the surface, but in my opinion Aud is setting this up so he can say that he didn't want to vote me today and garner townie points. People forget "pseudo-votes" way more easily than they forget actual ones.
G_D just keeps digging, in my opinion. Using scare tactics to make us say "ok brah, we believe you, no need to hammer" isn't going to work. WHEN you hammer I'll believe you're an actor, but not until then. And it's not going to help you any if you hammer somebody before we're ready to end the day, as that's anti-town.
I didn't call you out because you had reasoning behind your vote. Shark has read town to me all game, which is why I didn't call him out.
JD is bandwagoning, iPot is omgusucking, and Iso just voted me. No evidence, no backing, just "I got this guys, I'll explain later".
You on the other hand, shame on you for trying to use my role as an indicator of alignment, it's public game knowledge that alignments were decided seperately from roles.
@Aud: Way to fence sit there bro. You're literally sitting on the fence right now. Why would I want to choke off discussion when it appears that discussion is the only way I'm going to prevent a mislynch?
Oh well, I have a feeling there are some terrible scum players on my wagon, and it should be revealed D2 if I croak, but without further ado:
I'm a Traveler. I'm a member of the Compassion church, so I know my compassion ability which is:
If my prayer is answered by Clotho, I can move any player to a safe location, and non-kill effects won't work on them.
Then I have a Knowledge and Determination ability that I don't know what they do yet, but I was praying to Clotho since D1 because I knew my ability was pretty decent at protecting people from being roleblocked, so I figured I would use that one N1 and then pray to my Determination God D2.
Also my alignment PM said I was Town and I win when all the Eyes are recovered.
If/when I die the town needs to look at JD, iPot, and Iso. Iso is being Iso, but usually he gives some kind of excuse/reason as to why he is voting someone. In my experience it's usually terrible and feeds his ego, but it's there. Nobody has given anything on me except the terrible reasoning behind one sentence that was meant to be hypothetical. So while I don't think my lynch today is the best play we could've made, I'm actually happy with it because it will provide knowledge and leads D2 when I flip, so either way doesn't really bother me.