As for the game ending in 5 turns or less, maybe. When you include us losing in that, I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.
I could play wood elemental, and the game would sure as hell be over within 5 turns.
no card in that sb slot is going to win you the game when it resolves so of course it's going to involve you losing some of the time.. have you won when running elspeth or gideon 100% of the time? what did you think i was implying?
As for removal and threat ratios, I'm not entirely sure what you mean, but post board, midrange decks are going to have a lot more threats.
What tilts midrange and control matchups is not necessarily hard to answer threats.
gbx is inverse to jeskai... uw vs jeskai is around the same... so you're going to very often get into a state where you're either in topdeck mode or even on cards and boardstate and you need something that warps the board in your favor that blanks a lot of their cards or take multiple cards to get rid of... if you haven't noticed this i'm not sure what game you're playing... what changes the game immensely is the first player who resolves something like a liliana or geist or a pw and then it becomes a matter of whether or not they can deal with it in time....
with geist or pw's... there are very often answers already being played heavily in the other decks... with keranos those answers are much much less... and that's the simple reason why ppl play it...
i don't want to belabor this argument too much since this is a bit silly... but just want to address your points:
a)UW will def not leave in dsphere or bring in celestial purge unless they see it in game 2... i know because i've played it in the past... there aren't too many players who will sideboard in purge blind with potentially zero targets.. and those that will you will probably beat them regardless of your 75...
b)keranos was one of the best sb cards against jund and gbx in general because they have exactly zero ways to remove it once it's on the board... it becomes a permanent race that doesn't get stonewalled by a single creature... or just one colonnade activation away from being gone...
elspeth has the problem of coming on later and being vulnerable... not that much more vulnerable but more vulnerable nevertheless because of pulse, direct damage or souls/colonnade/queller/geist...
c)yes when facing tons of creatures keranos is bad... any planeswalker including geist the mini-pw is really really bad... that's why you don't want to cast keranos unless it's really your last card but preferably when you have the board under control... if you're facing a single goyf you might be able to race it or even remove it with drawing a single bolt...
with keranos.. the game will end in some fashion in 5 or less turns... you might lose that race if they topdeck well or if you're behind on board but on even or better you are heavily favored and you will be in that situation A LOT against midrange mirrors since the removal and threat ratios are basically even... what tilts the matchup for diff decks are the hard to answer threats... gbx has liliana, UW has their gideons and jeskai has geists.. but if you don't use geist then you'll probably need something like keranos or ajani or gideon or gearhulk or whoever to tilt those games back in your favor...
again... i think this is a silly discussion.. it's way too many words for a single sb slot... the deck that hit top 12 in this weekend's open had a keranos in the board so you obviously can have some success with it... and i obviously agree with you somewhat since i'm not actively playing it but i am just contesting what you said about it being terrible... it definitely is not that but we can respectfully disagree...
ok well... elspeth vs keranos directly is a little faster but taking into account the casting cost keranos can come down sooner and overall you will probably do more damage...
more importantly it's much harder to interact with... which is important against the decks you bring it in against...
in any case... it's marginal either way and i don't even play it anymore... but it isn't bad by any stretch...
Storm shouldnt be all that tough altho it really all depends on how much counter magic you have and if they have blood moon altho recent lists have foregone it... dispel is your best card here...
This is where leyline is much better than halo since it shuts off both gifts and grapeshot.. and having a plan against the tokens because they will empty for 3 or 4 whenever possible...
If you lean on cryptic they can punish you tho since they will eot gifts to get an opening...
Keranos and Elspeth aren't comparable. Keranos is good on board control aspects when Lightning Bolts are good. Otherwise, there are just better draw engines. Elspeth dominates a board that isn't completely out of control while protecting you.
Also, when I cast Keranos back in the day, I did not want to be behind on the board. That only complicates the math on whether you can take a turn off to do so.
Theyre not exactly similar but if youre closing out a game they do so in similar fashion altho keranos id argue is a bit faster... elspeth is a lot better at stabilizing though...
Keranos is good mostly against decks that don't really exist anymore, and only in certain board states. If thats not the definition of bad, I'm not sure what else is.
I wouldnt say that midrange/control decks dont exist.. they are actually quite prevalant... against bgx or uwx they wont have an answer for it once it resolves... if you play geist which is a similar card it's only good in certain board states also but ppl play it...
I use it every now and then.. and i favor it over elspeth but like ajani more now... it's not a mainstay or anything but it is one of the better cards you'd want in the relevant matchups..
i wouldn't say keranos is that bad.... it's great against most other midrange decks except for eldrazi tron... i will say that if you are playing geist you probably don't want keranos as it would be a bit redundant... it's basically a lower costed elspeth and if you're on 24 or less lands you want your finisher to not cost 6 cmc....
if you're playing keranos you want to transform into more of a control deck postboard... if you're playing 8 or more creatures with keranos then you're probably doing it wrong since you don't want to be behind on board when casting him...
i don't really like azcanta.. at least in jeskai tempo shells... if you are on the tempo plan then both sides of it is pretty do nothing because you really want to concentrate on interacting or doing damage.... it does not really need consistent card advantage in most matchups.. and certainly doesn't want to take multiple turns off to do it... you're also a lot more vulnerable to gy hate.... i do kind of like it for traditional jeskai ajani control lists tho...
In other news, playtesting with 8 cantrips for both a Nahiri build and a Geist build, I do really like Logic Knot now. The problem is however that I can no longer play Rest in Peace, and the alternatives are all mediocre; Surgical is poor especially without GQ/TE, and Relic doesn't do enough to be worthwhile. I think that I'd rather just switch off the gravehate entirely and accept the loss vs dredge
i always favored tormod's crypt for grave hate and probably what you want here...
i would just play UW... not being able to fetch for the right basic is not gonna matter much at your fnm but over a long tourney it will matter enough that you are just handicapping yourself... your life total matters in about half of your matchups and you will probably lose at least a game that you may not have...
if you're going to use two colorless sources... you should use GQ instead of tec edge since you can at least pseudo-fetch a basic if you really need it..
i don't think there's any harm in using one.. but two is going to get you in trouble...
i've stated my feelings with playing more than 4 cantrips before but playing more than 4 seems too much without affecting the board... cards like serum and sleight of hand and opt are like taxes on your mana.... this doesn't become evident until you play against someone like burn or even affinity... more than 2 or 3 cantrips will increase your likelihood of losing very heavily because you'll be far behind on tempo... GDS can do it because their wincons are one mana also...
the best thing you could do is hold up countermagic on turn 2 or remove a threat.... 8 cantrips means you will be devoting the first two turns to cantripping a large majority of the time... or you will be cantripping a lot in the later turns... i think that's fine if the card you are trying to find wins you the game but bolts, electrolyzes, queller and cryptic only move the win percentages slightly... and the queller lists don't have a problem with consistency so you're making it less dense for marginal... if any.. gains... but if you choose to play the opts then you want as few tapped lands as possible...
as for stony... i prefer it but i've seen many lists not play it... my theory is that even if the matchup is good if you have a sideboard card that moves the matchup a lot then it's worth it... moving a matchup 10% affects your winrate the same if it's at 50% or 70% and affinity is still very popular and capable of making deep runs the moment folks leave home their artifact hate... i always have a rule to never have less than one in my sb... but i've been running into enough ad nauseam and lantern that it's not some narrow card either...
I play dsphere in the board but castout is good also... i like dsphere because it's better vs tokens (storm and souls) and works better vs multiple chalices or bridges...
Edit: if youre new to mtgo i like mtgotraders and use discountcode redditpaypal to initially get your cards.. ive never used manatraders so cant comment...
UW never really played rejection... they favor stony... grixis plays rejection since their artifact or colorless hate is nonexistant in their colors...
Anyway this horse is dead... what works for you might not work for everyone else...
no card in that sb slot is going to win you the game when it resolves so of course it's going to involve you losing some of the time.. have you won when running elspeth or gideon 100% of the time? what did you think i was implying?
gbx is inverse to jeskai... uw vs jeskai is around the same... so you're going to very often get into a state where you're either in topdeck mode or even on cards and boardstate and you need something that warps the board in your favor that blanks a lot of their cards or take multiple cards to get rid of... if you haven't noticed this i'm not sure what game you're playing... what changes the game immensely is the first player who resolves something like a liliana or geist or a pw and then it becomes a matter of whether or not they can deal with it in time....
with geist or pw's... there are very often answers already being played heavily in the other decks... with keranos those answers are much much less... and that's the simple reason why ppl play it...
a)UW will def not leave in dsphere or bring in celestial purge unless they see it in game 2... i know because i've played it in the past... there aren't too many players who will sideboard in purge blind with potentially zero targets.. and those that will you will probably beat them regardless of your 75...
b)keranos was one of the best sb cards against jund and gbx in general because they have exactly zero ways to remove it once it's on the board... it becomes a permanent race that doesn't get stonewalled by a single creature... or just one colonnade activation away from being gone...
elspeth has the problem of coming on later and being vulnerable... not that much more vulnerable but more vulnerable nevertheless because of pulse, direct damage or souls/colonnade/queller/geist...
c)yes when facing tons of creatures keranos is bad... any planeswalker including geist the mini-pw is really really bad... that's why you don't want to cast keranos unless it's really your last card but preferably when you have the board under control... if you're facing a single goyf you might be able to race it or even remove it with drawing a single bolt...
with keranos.. the game will end in some fashion in 5 or less turns... you might lose that race if they topdeck well or if you're behind on board but on even or better you are heavily favored and you will be in that situation A LOT against midrange mirrors since the removal and threat ratios are basically even... what tilts the matchup for diff decks are the hard to answer threats... gbx has liliana, UW has their gideons and jeskai has geists.. but if you don't use geist then you'll probably need something like keranos or ajani or gideon or gearhulk or whoever to tilt those games back in your favor...
again... i think this is a silly discussion.. it's way too many words for a single sb slot... the deck that hit top 12 in this weekend's open had a keranos in the board so you obviously can have some success with it... and i obviously agree with you somewhat since i'm not actively playing it but i am just contesting what you said about it being terrible... it definitely is not that but we can respectfully disagree...
more importantly it's much harder to interact with... which is important against the decks you bring it in against...
in any case... it's marginal either way and i don't even play it anymore... but it isn't bad by any stretch...
This is where leyline is much better than halo since it shuts off both gifts and grapeshot.. and having a plan against the tokens because they will empty for 3 or 4 whenever possible...
If you lean on cryptic they can punish you tho since they will eot gifts to get an opening...
Theyre not exactly similar but if youre closing out a game they do so in similar fashion altho keranos id argue is a bit faster... elspeth is a lot better at stabilizing though...
I wouldnt say that midrange/control decks dont exist.. they are actually quite prevalant... against bgx or uwx they wont have an answer for it once it resolves... if you play geist which is a similar card it's only good in certain board states also but ppl play it...
I use it every now and then.. and i favor it over elspeth but like ajani more now... it's not a mainstay or anything but it is one of the better cards you'd want in the relevant matchups..
if you're playing keranos you want to transform into more of a control deck postboard... if you're playing 8 or more creatures with keranos then you're probably doing it wrong since you don't want to be behind on board when casting him...
i always favored tormod's crypt for grave hate and probably what you want here...
i don't think there's any harm in using one.. but two is going to get you in trouble...
the best thing you could do is hold up countermagic on turn 2 or remove a threat.... 8 cantrips means you will be devoting the first two turns to cantripping a large majority of the time... or you will be cantripping a lot in the later turns... i think that's fine if the card you are trying to find wins you the game but bolts, electrolyzes, queller and cryptic only move the win percentages slightly... and the queller lists don't have a problem with consistency so you're making it less dense for marginal... if any.. gains... but if you choose to play the opts then you want as few tapped lands as possible...
as for stony... i prefer it but i've seen many lists not play it... my theory is that even if the matchup is good if you have a sideboard card that moves the matchup a lot then it's worth it... moving a matchup 10% affects your winrate the same if it's at 50% or 70% and affinity is still very popular and capable of making deep runs the moment folks leave home their artifact hate... i always have a rule to never have less than one in my sb... but i've been running into enough ad nauseam and lantern that it's not some narrow card either...
Edit: if youre new to mtgo i like mtgotraders and use discountcode redditpaypal to initially get your cards.. ive never used manatraders so cant comment...
Anyway this horse is dead... what works for you might not work for everyone else...