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  • published the article Deathrite Shaman
    This blog was written a couple months ago, pretty much right after PT:RTR. In fact, I had been writing the draft of it up for awhile before that. You can look though my post history and see where I initially proposed such a list before PT:RTR as well.

    I did have access to the RTR spoiler though, so maybe I should have caught DRS. But plenty of people missed seeing how powerful he was.

    If I redrafted the list today, I probably would include him.

    As for Liliana, I think she was fine before DRS. She would very much be a staple of the format, but I think WotC likes planeswalkers being somewhat relevant in modern.


    All that said, this plan was very much a "lets get it all out of the way plan". It looks like even if WotC is looking to get to the same endpoint, they are doing so in a slower approach: banning only a couple cards at a time. That can get to the same end point, just a bit more gradually.

    I was advocating to ban like crazy, and then scale back. They appear to be banning slowly so they don't need to scale back as much.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some more cards from this list banned in the future. I would reckon WotC has a list of cards they don't think fit in their ideal environment, and will be looking for opportunities to ban them that the playerbase won't pitch a fit over.

    Their list may not be the same as mine, but there is probably some significant overlap.

    (some of this is from a comment responding to a comment on an earlier blog entry, but I wanted to put it here for anyone who stumbles on the blog for the first time.)
    Posted in: Deathrite Shaman
  • published the article Some initial decklists
    Jund


    This one seems like a fairly direct evolution of the current Jund reacting initially to my proposed bans. This is a collection of cards that all msotly stand on their own. The biggest question I think comes in to whether you want to go for a different 2 drop and build the strategy around that. There are lots of 2 drop options like Fauna Shaman or Lotus Cobra that encourage you to choose other things differently.



    Badd Bussiness Bant Gifts


    This loses 2 snapcasters and a 1 of Vedalken shackles. I slotted in a few cards I thought were reasonable replacements.



    Infect


    Admittedly, my knowledge on the archetype is a little loose. With that in mind, I completely understand that hitting Apostle's Blessing seems very odd. I think Infect is a product of its environment though, and given time, the rest of the environment will keep it in check. As we saw in GP Chicago, Spellskite is a major headache for the deck. Banning AB may not even be needed, but I like that it forces the deck to decide whether it wants the creature protection or if it wants the "can't block" effect they sometimes got from AB. I think Mizzium Skin and Rangers Guile are going to step up as likely replacements, which means people will more often be able to chump block and save themselves from lethal infect.


    GWb Hatebears


    Kibler's GP Chicago deck is entirely legal, and I don't see a problem with that.
    Posted in: Some initial decklists
  • published the article Looking at Levels 1 and 2
    We have some benefit here, as we mostly just have to look at current modern viable decks and ask ourselves who lost the least.

    Living End
    WB Tokens
    Splinter Twin
    Infect Aggro
    Niv Magus Elemental

    Next we have the midrange strategies that can be updated quick enough to be competitive.
    UW Control
    Jund

    They both lose a not insignificant amount of cards, so the decklists are unlikely to be ideal. You should be able to slap together a version that feels reasonably competitive in about 15 minutes.
    Posted in: Looking at Levels 1 and 2
  • published the article Surveying the Fallout
    I am going to go through many archetypes, and catalog what they lost, and what immediate replacements they may move to.

    Also, I will mention occasionally a card that was in the list of bannings that would be on the table for unbanning once the format stabilized. I have gone for a better safe than sorry approach, with full intent to re-evaluate once things have settled.

    Jund/Junk/GBx Midrange Losses

    Bloodbraid Elf
    Dark Confidant
    Kitchen Finks
    Tarmogoyf


    Straight replacements probably have it going for
    Huntmaster of the Fells
    ???
    Geralf's Messenger
    Plague Leech

    That said, I think BBE and Confidant had done some serious warping to how jund decks are built.

    There still seem to be an abundance of good cards, I think there is a lot more argument about what color you want after GB.

    Red - Lightning Bolt, Terminate, and Huntmaster of the Fells
    White - Path to Exile, Knight of the Reliquary, Doran, Loxodon Smiter, Lingering Souls
    Blue - mana leak, creeping tar pit, serum visions


    Some cards that gain ground with the banning
    Huntmaster of the Fells
    Geralf's Messenger
    Plague Leech
    Sprouting Thrinax
    Thragtusk
    Eternal Witness
    Primal Command
    Bonfire of the Damned / Rakdos Return
    Broodmate Dragon / Inferno Titan / Grave Titan

    Affinity Losses
    Cranial Plating

    One card, but it probably shakes this deck pretty hard.

    I think the pool is definitely still deep enough for them to exist though.

    Excellent anchors to try to rebuild from
    Etched Champion
    Arcbound Ravager
    Steel Overseer
    Master of Etherium
    Tempered Steel

    Good cards to fit in decks, depending on the style
    Thoughtcast
    Galvanic Blast
    Nexuses
    Signal Pest
    Mox Opal/Springleaf Drum
    Memnite/ornithopter


    Tempo Decks
    Delver of Secrets
    Snapcaster Mage
    Tarmogoyf
    Geist of Saint Traft
    Vedalken Shackles

    So, yeah, they got hit hard. If there is one archetype hit hardest, its here.

    That said, I am not generally a tempo player or deck builder, so there may be next steps I am not seeing yet.

    Steppe Lynx / Path to Exile / Lightning Helix / Lightning Bolt / Vendilion Clique / Mana Leak / Serum Visions seems like its still a pretty solid core, you might have to search a bit to find 12 cards to replace what was lost, but I am pretty sure once I look, I'll be surprised at the options they have.

    RUG delver is probably out and out dead, unless something like Quiron Dryad rises up to take tarmo's place.

    While this archetype has been very hard hit, its also traditionally been pretty easy to design cards for, and they often look deceptively underpowered at first.

    Ramp Decks (Tron and Valakut)
    RG Tron is probably killed, although once things stabilized, if we have some control in the meta, I would say Expedition Map and/or Sylvan Scrying could come off the banned list. They are banned right now to be safe from turn 3 karns and wurmcoils warping the meta, but once the format stabilizes, those may be fine things for a deck to be able to do, as it can be answered by the control and tempo archetypes fairly easily.

    UW Tron could conceivably be reworked, along with the various other control Tron decks that have lived in previous environments like UR tron, etc.

    The current builds of Valakut are dead. But RG Valakut can probably look back to how it worked in standard and build something solid enough.

    Birthing Pod Decks
    Kitchen Finks is a hard hit, and the breaking of the kiki-jiki and melira combos are also pretty rough on the existing pod decks.

    That said, Pod itself is insanely powerful, and it could likely resurrect around something like Saffi/Crypt Champion/Blood Artist.
    A slower environment like this would be could probably also find a way to leverage Pod in a more midrange fashion just to eek out value, likely with comes into play abilities like Eternal Witness, Restoration Angel, and Thragtusk playing a role.

    This deck has to change a lot, but I think it actually has a lot to gain from the expected environment shift.


    Infect/Niv Magus
    Both lose Apostle's Blessing

    This is likely one of the decks that is part of Level One of the new environment.

    Assuming the format begins to slow down as expected though, and control can establish itself and make combo a little less prevalent, the decks that these prey upon would be reduced.

    There are ample replacements for AB, but these decks are forced to choose whether they are protecting from removal or bypassing blockers, they do not get the free-roll of both for a colorless mana.

    Storm
    Pyromancer's Ascension
    Grapeshot

    Pretty rough, but we still have some cards to enable (Past in Flames) and reward (Empty the Warrens, Kiln Fiend) playing lots of spells.

    A similar, but discrete deck, Dragonstorm could possibly see a resurgence in a slower environment. Rite of Flame had always played a big role in any DS list, but we have got another 2->3 ritual since then.
    Goblin Electromancer can allow a turn 3 kill with Dstorm though. T2 electromancer, T3 any two 2->3 rituals + Spirit Guide -> Dstorm for 2 hellkites and karthus, tyrant of Jund.

    UW Resto
    Snapcaster Mage
    Geist of St Traft
    Kitchen Finks

    Interestingly, Finks is not as much a loss as I would have thought initially. Looking at some recent lists, Blade Splicer has been displacing Finks in some cases already.

    While snappy is a hard hit, I think the deck has so much to gain from a slower environment that it should be able to evolve without too much effort. We're talking 7 slots for the top 8 deck from the last GP. More blade splicers, wall of omens, and some other card and you are probably good to go. Squadron Hawk perhaps?

    Burn
    Dark confidant from the Rb version. Otherwise no losses.

    Gains:
    ---affinity will likely be evolving away from the hyper-aggressive deck it has been
    ---If control can come up to mitigate some of the combo, this can probably steal some percentages there.
    ---Ding dong, the Finks are dead, the wicked Finks are dead. Matyr is gone too!


    Challenges
    ---Finks may be gone, but that doesn't mean lifegain is gone entirely. Obstinate Baloth, huntmaster of the Fells, and Thragtusk probably all get some play in this new world. As 4-5 drops, we might be able to race them.
    ---there are still some pretty absurd hate cards people can play if they want. That said, 95% of what people actually have for it will be lifegain and Leyline of Sanctity. With just those two, you may be able to work around it with the right plan.

    Twin
    Kiki Jiki

    Yeah, its a hit, but not an unsurmountable one. After all it, was an amazing deck in standard and mini-extended with just splinter twin, which it still has.

    Looking at the Twin deck at the GP, it only had 2 kiki anyway. It probably hurts to replace those, but you can probably find a suitable filler in about 5 minutes of searching.

    BW Tokens
    They don't lose a darn thing.

    That said, in a lot of ways, this is the epitome of a fair deck that encourages people to play sweepers, that are likely to be good elsewhere as well. I doubt it would be able to rise to become a menace to the format.

    Definitely consideration as the Level One of the format.

    Aggro Loam
    tarmogoyf

    No idea what it replaces him with, but he is mostly just a fat butt for the deck. There should be some replacement that can cover that job.

    Living End
    Nothing lost.

    Gains some value from an increase in creature decks as compared to combo decks. At the same time, it loses value to the likely increased values in counterspells in this environment.

    Probably a fine role player.

    Definitely consideration as the Level One of the format.

    Control Decks
    Snapcaster Mage
    Unburial Rites

    Snapcaster sure would have been nice, but I think its a price we can pay if it gets the environment where we need it for our other cards to be relevant.
    Unburial Rites, I hesitate to list, as its not even really a control card, its an oversight with gifts ungiven.

    Any Ramp decks that exist are going to be great matchups for you, instead of the absolutely awful match ups they are in current modern.
    Having a mana leak on turn 4 against midrange matters again without bloodbraid elf making you feel awful.

    This is obviously the one of the most exciting parts of this proposed format.
    Teachings
    Gifts
    Cruel

    All could be possibilities.

    I think there is probably a Bant control list thats pretty good as well. Eternal Witness can probably do a pretty impressive Snapcaster impression.
    Posted in: Surveying the Fallout
  • published the article Nuked from Orbit
    The allowed sets are the same as Modern. The only difference is the banned list is much larger.

    These bans do not follow the normal rationalizations used to justify a ban. I am not worried about the reasons we would need to give to ban right now. I am only concerned with what the effects would be, because I think many people would be surprised and pleased with where we end up. If we could only get over the shock of what it takes to get there.


    The following cards are banned in Nuclear Wasteland Modern

    Aether Vial
    Ancestral Vision
    Ancient Den
    Apostle's Blessing
    Bitterblossom
    Blazing Shoal
    Bloodbraid Elf
    Chrome Mox
    Cloudpost
    Cranial Plating
    Dark Confidant
    Dark Depths
    Delver of Secrets
    Dread Return
    Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
    Expedition Map
    Geist of Saint Traft
    Glimpse of Nature
    Golgari Grave-Troll
    Grapeshot
    Great Furnace
    Green Sun's Zenith
    Hypergenesis
    Jace, the Mind Sculptor
    Kiki Jiki
    Kitchen Finks
    Martyr of Sands
    Mental Misstep
    Pentad Prism
    Ponder
    Preordain
    Prismatic Omen
    Punishing Fire
    Pyromancer's Ascension
    Rite of Flame
    Scapeshift
    Seat of the Synod
    Sensei's Divining Top
    Snapcaster Mage
    Stoneforge Mystic
    Skullclamp
    Sword of the Meek
    Sylvan Scrying
    Tarmogoyf
    Tree of Tales
    Umezawa's Jitte
    Unburial Rites
    Vault of Whispers
    Vedalken Shackles
    Wild Nacatl

    If you'd like me to expound upon the reasons for a particular banning, I can, and have done so a number of times in the Ban thread of the Modern forums.

    The main thrust is that these cards, or the decks they enable, push out a large number of other cards. Often these other cards are still much beloved by the Magic community, we just tend to not even think about them in the context of modern, because they are not currently viable.

    Up Next: Surveying the Fallout
    Posted in: Nuked from Orbit
  • published the article Modern in a Nuclear Wasteland
    I have been advocating for awhile that being more aggressive with bannings would be beneficial for modern. For many reasons, aggressive banning is looked down upon by the community. That is a major hurdle to overcome, but the best way to do so is information.

    I think the biggest hurdle is that when we see a card get banned, it is easy to see what we lost, and difficult to see what we may have gained. Banning a card usually opens up other cards to being playable. But we don't know which cards those are, or if we would even care about those cards becoming viable. If we banned enough for Grizzly Bears to be playable for instance, people would not in any way think that is positive. For control players though, seeing something like Teferi suddenly become playable could have them dancing in the streets.

    In hopes of making what we have to gain more clear, and to show that it is actually worth the pain of banning, I am going to make an effort to thoroughly explore the implications of what I propose and post the results to this blog.

    If you read something here you have a strong opinion on, let me know. But I'll expect the data to back it up.

    If you think I am missing an obvious deck that would be totally overpowered and ruin the environment, don't just say a deck name. Give me a deck list. I'll run it against some of the other decks and let you know how it turns out.

    The shuttle has launched, its reached orbit, and its preparing to open the bay doors. Brace yourself, the bomb is about to drop.
    Posted in: Modern in a Nuclear Wasteland