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    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    Quote from Aazadan »
    Quote from BlueTronFTW »
    I'd be okay with a KCI ban from a logistical stance. Anyone who has attended a tournament where ***** went off the rails because people went to turns and took an extra fifteen minutes in most rounds understands the suffering.


    A swap ban with KCI for Second Sunrise could make sense.
    How in the world would that make any sense? Eggs didn't even bother with Krark-Clan Ironworks until after Second Sunrise was banned. You do the swap ban and you just bring back the Eggs deck that was judged worthy of banning to begin with.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    Quote from gkourou »
    Problem is, Blue Control decks don't seem to need help at the moment. I think UWx Control is tier 1 for the first time since a long, long time(maybe from mclauren jeskai control's era). So, I think Wizards does not feel forced to unban Preordain.
    I mean, I prefer this over the other probably, but I just see Ancient Stirrings being banned as the easy solution for Wizards and the safest thing to do.
    This is not to say that Stirrings wouldn't look good on the Banlist. It's super good when compared with all the other Modern cantrips and it would totally make sense in the banlist.
    I might agree that the Blue control decks would not require Preordain if they were all actively running 4x Serum Visions, thereby showing they would clearly jump straight into 4x Preordain. But they're not all running 4x Serum Visions; some aren't running a single copy! In the four UWx Control decks that made it to the Top 8 of the last Grand Prix, there were a grand total of 7 copies of Serum Visions (only one ran the full set; one didn't run any at all, and the other two ran 2 and 1 copies respectively). And in the UW Control deck that made it into Top 16 of this Grand Prix, zero copies of Serum Visions were played. Actually, zero copies of Serum Visions were played in any of the Top 16 decks.

    Granted, Opt saw play, but Opt is also Instant speed. I'm skeptical that Preordain would be that much of a boost to UWx Control, as it lacks the Instant-speed appeal of Opt, even if its effect is more powerful. That's not to say it wouldn't see play, but I don't see reason to believe it would be an automatic 4-of. It's the decks that are dependent on Serum Visions (or Sleight of Hand) which always run 4 copies that would get the real boost, and none of those decks seem good right now.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 02/07/2018)
    Oh, it definitely is useful. But testing is probably the most surefire way to find out what's okay and what's not. You would need multiple people testing and they would have to be as unbiased as humanly possible.

    The problem with conjecture is something like Jace, the Mind Sculptor. I swear to God that I heard more than 50% of Modern players saying that it would "break the format." I myself believed it to be better than it currently is, although maybe UW Control is getting it to that. Some people think that Umezawa's Jitte or artifact lands (KCI lol) or Deathrite Shaman are okay. I personally think that Gitaxian Probe is okay, but it looks like Wizards has their own Crusade against that card. Not everyone can get everything right is my point. Right now I'm pretty pissed about the Legacy bannings, but in a few weeks, I probably will enjoy the format better.
    Jitte would probably be okay, it's just not really a card that brings anything positive. It's inherently self-regulating because the better it is in a deck, the worse that deck is when facing an opponent's Umezawa's Jitte (similarly, the decks that Umezawa's Jitte is weak against are decks that can't really get much usage out of it). The problem is what while Jitte is self-regulating as I noted, it turns creature deck mirrors into "who connects with their Jitte first?" meaning there's not really any positive effect it can have on the format. It's even worse now under the new legend rule because you can't use your Jitte to remove an opponent's Jitte.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 16/04/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »

    Not going to directly debate the merits of a Twin unban, as it tends to torpedo the thread for numerous pages. Rather, I'll simply point to the current diversity of blue decks across MTGO, SCG, the GP circuit, and other tournament settings. Now, let's completely ignore how the Twin ban did or did not enable those decks to succeed. We're just acknowledging that there are more non-Twin blue decks on the GP/PT scene today than in the Twin era (9% then vs. 17.5% now). Given that, let's say we are asking the hyper-conservative Wizards R&D department. Remember that this is the R&D that took years to unban a card (JTMS) that did almost nothing. Same with BB, AV, Nacatl, and others. Given their track record, which is indicative of their hyper-conservative thinking, why on earth are the going to unban a potentially polarizing card like Twin in this diverse blue metagame? Again, for all the Twin supporters, this is not an argument directed at you. I am simply looking at R&D and not envisioning a near future where R&D evaluates Twin as a card that should be unbanned.
    I mean... someone can make the same argument of Jace prior to their unbanning of it. Why would the "hyper-conservative" WOTC unban Jace? But they still did.

    I know I was surprised. I expected a Stoneforge Mystic or even Splinter Twin unban before they let Jace loose.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from Colt47 »
    Also if people want a source on the whole set release throttling, just go ask your LGS how the supply for dominaria went back at release. There were no boxes left on the shelf for people to buy for ages and there were actually more fat packs than booster boxes at my own LGS. Battlebond was insane as well, with seemingly more packs available at walmart and meijer. If someone wanted to feel like they went back to the 90s before they released chronicles, this is sort of close to that point. Plenty of Ixalan and Rivals, though.
    That's not a source on intentional set throttling. That's just an indication they underestimated the popularity of those sets (understandable, as Dominaria was much better received than any Standard set in the last year or so, and Battlebond was an entirely new thing), and it took time to get the extra copies out to meet the unexpected demand.

    If this was something that happened with multiple Standard sets in a row I could find your interpretation plausible, but as of right now it's entirely speculative.
    Posted in: Modern
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  • 3

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 16/04/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    I'm not saying it was the Twin ban alone. If that wasn't clear, sorry for not making it clearer. The Twin ban was one of many factors that accomplished it and GP data supports an overall increase (for a variety of factors) in blue diversity than we saw before the ban. Wizards is unlikely to risk that by bringing Twin back.
    The problem is that there seems to be a distinct lack of proof that Twin ban actually was a factor at all. As far as I can tell, we didn't see an increase in diversity after the ban. The increase in diversity, again as far as I can tell, started considerably later, and seems to have been the result of new cards entering the format and powering up control. If there's proof to the contrary I'll listen but I certainly don't recall any, and I haven't seen people post it.

    If X happened and diversity did not increase, then Y and Z happened and diversity did increase, there really is a lack of evidence that X (in this case the Splinter Twin ban) was an actual factor in increasing diversity. It's possible that without X, then Y and Z would not have accomplished what they did, but that unfortunately is a completely speculative argument.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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  • 4

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 16/04/2018)
    Quote from gkourou »
    It's not one tournament, and it's not one deck. It's about 3 or 4 decks, that causes various issues(possible dominance issues in Tron, possible logistics or possible dominance issues in the future in KCI, and possible logistic issues in the MTGO platform, possible time issues and the deck being "obnoxious" in Lantern control). And even those arguments, might be fragile. I feel it in the water, I smell it in the air.
    The big argument is that the card is not on par with the other cantrips in Modern(Serum Visions much, much weaker and being played at about the same decks[some control decks, storm]). It was ok before as it was being played in 1 fringe deck. It's being played in multiple decks now and adding extreme consistency.
    Maybe not one deck, but one tournament. There weren't many calls for it to be banned (yes, there were some, but not many, and usually it was more complaining about Blue not getting something like it than complaining Ancient Stirrings itself was too good). Then we had this tournament and suddenly everyone's on about banning it.

    The claim of "dominance issues" in Tron is just plain inaccurate. Tron wasn't putting up much in the way of results prior to this tournament, then all of a sudden it does decently, most probably due to people discounting it due to it not appearing much in the Top 8's of the last few big tournaments, and then people complain about it being overpowered.

    Also, Lantern Control has fallen off so much since the unbannings that citing it seems downright disingenuous. There wasn't even a single copy in the Top 32 of GP Las Vegas.

    Also, Serum Visions does have noticeably more play than Ancient Stirrings, so claiming "about the same decks" seems inaccurate also. Interestingly, at times when Serum Visions was the 2nd most played card in the format, no one was calling for bannings or claiming that it was much better than the rest of the cantrips, even though in such cases it was seeing significantly more play than Ancient Stirrings is now... that seems rather inconsistent.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 2

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 16/04/2018)
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from javert »
    At the risk of being called elitist or snob, "SCG events" are a level below GPs both in terms of deck choices and play skill. Jim Davis wouldn't be able to make it as far in a GP with Jeskai as he does in SCG events. If Jeskai / Jund / Mardu, etc players are content with that then there's no problem but be prepared for a rude awakening whenever the stakes are higher.

    As most know, I most certainly agree with this. Although SCG Events do not exist on the west coast, I experienced what felt like basically an SCG event multiple times over the GP weekend in the Modern Double-Ups. There were routinely a couple hundred people (the Satuday morning one had six full pages of pairings). Most of these people had either scrubbed out of the main event or (like me) actively chose not to participate. As a result, I faced players that, for whatever reason, were not in the big, main, high-stakes event. This means I got the "play what you like"/"play what you own" crowd, as well as people who didn't do well in the main event for whatever reason. This means I dodged a lot of the Tron/Humans/KCI/Hollow One decks that were ripping up the GP, and played against all the decks that lost or didn't want to play against a highly predictable field of misery. And at least from the outside, that seems like what most SCG events are, and it's why we see certain players/decks do well there and not really anywhere else in the competitive scene.
    Your description of the event(s) you took part in is much more akin to an SCG Classic than a SCG Open.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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