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  • posted a message on A million game study says shuffler is rigged
    Quote from Algernone25 »
    I have always been fervent in stating that I wanted to see proof of any rigging in shuffling before admitting it's there, that I'm not going to accept just anecdotal data and the rants of a salty YT crapposter.

    This is a sufficient sample size and the data analyzed in a very well-thought out and consistent manner, and the data is presented in a very clear format that makes the point rather clear. I was wrong, there is a problem with the shuffler.

    I'm convinced that there is an issue that's going on, and Wizards needs to address this rather quickly because it's a VERY damning issue for them. Until then, about the only thing you can do is arm yourself with the knowledge. For those not wanting to pour through all the technical details, here's a good tl;dr:

    -- Limited Decks will constantly be mana-starved, no matter how many you play. Fill up on stuff low on the curve.
    -- 22-23 lands is the sweet spot for not getting issues - Play too many more and you get flooded more often, play too many fewer and you get screwed more often compared to expected value.
    -- 3 land opening hands are great. 2-land or fewer hands get starved more often, 4-land or more hands get flooded more often compared to expected value.
    -- Taking any mulligan seems to put the land/spell ratio back to where it should be.
    --By all accounts this appears to be a common mistake in implementing the shuffler algorithm in which the deck is randomized, but not randomized enough. This is why taking a mulligan fixes it. This is an act of incompetence moreso than malfeasance.
    -- There is no data to suggest that Arena gives you more copies of specific cards more often than expected.

    I am hopeful that the people in charge of this at WotC catch wind of this and are able to affect a fix of some kind. It shouldn't be that hard, from what the report claims.


    The rigging part is sensationalism. The truth is that the developers messed up on the system for the first turn help in order to make best of one more livable. The problem that happens, and I've observed this myself, is that land pockets form in the deck when the assist is in place. There could be any number of reasons for this, but most likely it's not the fault of the actual randomization algorithm. The developers use the same core algorithm for both best of three and best of one, and taking a mulligan fixes the situation.

    So with those observations in place, the issue is likely that they randomize the deck first and wrote the starting hand helper class and methods such that they pull cards they need from the randomly shuffled deck to form the seven card hands. Now, lets say it does this for two hypothetical hands, and once it has determined which one is better, it puts the other hand back into the deck: What operation would it proceed to go through to do so and is the client responsible or the server?

    Well, for one they definitely do not want to do the randomization on the client side because that could allow someone to rig their own deck shuffle via third party tools, and if people think that throwing anti-cheat software onto it would be a viable solution: how about we don't repeat that entire thing that happened with Ubisoft? So the better choice would be to run the shuffler at the server. Now, this is a server that is getting hammered by millions of connected clients and reshuffles are expensive, so you'd want to minimize how many times you are shuffling the deck. Hence, I believe that when it puts the cards back into the deck, it simply inserts them back where it found them.

    So, 60 cards, shuffle the deck, draw 14, optimize both by swapping cards between the hands and the deck, then reinsert the lesser of two hands back into the main deck using the same index positions they were drawn from. Is it any wonder you end up with land pockets when someone does that? Basically, they have to reshuffle the deck again after they reinsert the cards, but likely aren't figuring the deck is sufficiently randomized and want to save on server resources.
    Posted in: MTG Arena
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    The entire market for magic is going to go up. Also, still going to be about the fetchlands as far as modern goes given that everyone was sitting around doing absolutely nothing with Kahns, and now the gambler tax is finally increasing the prices on the boxes.

    Right now this market is a sellers market. I'm just dodging bullets left and right and sitting on my mox opal / Engineered Explosive goodness for a bit. I'm anticipating Modern Horizons is going to cause prices to spike even harder.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Modern Horizons Spec/Predictions/hopes
    Did some thinking and choices I'd throw into the bunch on reprints in modern horizons:

    1) Goblin Ringleader
    2) Enlistment Officer
    3) Selvala, Heart of the Wilds
    4) Wirewood Symbiote
    5) Tidal Warrior
    6) Teferi's Protection
    7) Goblin Matron
    8) Recruiter of the guard
    9) Hymn to Tourach
    10) Goblin Lackey
    11) Exploration
    12) Noetic Scales ->> My off-beaten path choice.
    Posted in: Speculation
  • posted a message on Modern Horizons (Updated)
    To pump up value I'm anticipating that they will throw in Selvala, heart of the wilds, since she only spiked to her 50+ value recently so she would have been a good target for a mid tier product. She fits with an elf theme that can be pushed up by Wirewood Symbiote. I'm suspecting other types of moves with tribal as well, such as with soldiers and goblins. I do not see them doing much with Merfolk unless they are making a lot of new merfolk cards in the set.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Mono-blue Tempo
    Quote from rujasu »
    Also, I'll echo whoever said you should play best-of-3 with this deck if you're on Arena. In Bo1, I was struggling to do better than 50-50, but since I've been focusing on Bo3, I've gone on an 11-2 run and moving up into Platinum. That may be luck, me getting better with the deck, etc. but the matchups are just generally a lot better in the Bo3 queues.


    The reason is the hand rigging causing massive land pockets in the best of one matches without a mulligan. I literally mulligan every game now and it works as expected.
    Posted in: Established (Standard)
  • posted a message on Mono-blue Tempo
    Quote from rujasu »
    Quote from Colt47 »
    I recently started main decking entrancing melody to help with shoring up my aggro matches and have to say I'm impressed. Taking even one of the early drops to your side is huge.

    Also helps against tithe takers.


    Going with the 1 main, 2-3 board strategy, or are you running multiple in the maindeck? The former is what I'm doing, and seems to be the popular way to run the deck right now, but I haven't tried multiples.


    I main board all three, but I feel it is a meta call. Hostage taker is really bad to run into and stealing back a djinn is just so worth the effort. Not to mention it seemed like a lot of folks expected negate.
    Posted in: Established (Standard)
  • posted a message on Mono-blue Tempo
    I recently started main decking entrancing melody to help with shoring up my aggro matches and have to say I'm impressed. Taking even one of the early drops to your side is huge.

    Also helps against tithe takers.
    Posted in: Established (Standard)
  • posted a message on Mono-blue Tempo
    Yeah, I think I mostly run into the mono blue steamroll in best of one in arena. Things are a lot more interesting when I go into Best of Three.
    Posted in: Established (Standard)
  • posted a message on Mono-blue Tempo
    I feel like this deck in good hands is pretty neigh unbeatable except against mono-red, and that's only if the mono-red player actually kills the darn one drop with a shock so it can't get curious obsessioned. I keep seeing people with Lava Coil wait for the curious to get on my bird and at that point it's way too late since I just Dive Down, and it just goes downhill from there with all their removal being countered constantly.
    Posted in: Established (Standard)
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    The reason Mox Amber is so hard to work with in modern is that cards have to be good plus have synergy, or just be way over the top to work. Mox Opal worked because it had artifacts to work with and a means to capitalize on all of its qualities. Namely, it works really well with Ravager and other existing artifact support cards. Mox Amber I feel like you have to play bad cards to make it work, or go more towards a solid mid-range strategy that wants to hit a 5 drop.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    For me the card that replaced it was Spire of Industry along with the Kaladesh legendary land that nets you life if you have 3+ artifacts. I never needed glimmer in testing for the mana fixing and the pain from the Spire was never an issue. I think they are probably worth picking up at the low price since it's really more of a shift of the meta type of downturn.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Anyone else remember when Glimmervoid was worth 30 dollars? Ah, how the mighty have fallen.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Mox amber is a good spec simply due to commander appeal. Legendary creatures are pretty common in that format, so it has some value as another piece of the mana rock pile.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Modern Horizons Spec/Predictions/hopes
    Cabal Coffers and Rishadan Port to float the value as people jump on the two lands to brew for modern. Containment Priest literally needs a printing for modern to act as a hard counter to some strategies, Mother of Runes would help push edict effects up in value and probably boost Maelstrom pulse in cost. Also she'd make my legacy D&T viable in modern which would be happy days.
    Posted in: Speculation
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    I'm kind of curious what exactly is going to get printed into modern legality in terms of lands. I doubt that we're getting a new land cycle, so maybe they are bringing Rishadan Port and a few other legacy lands into modern legality? I doubt we would get Ancient Tomb, but the potential implications sound absolutely juicy to me. I think fast mana is off the tables for a post horizons modern, but if they bring things in to give UBx or other strategies a boost it could drastically shift the market in favor of cards that haven't seen play in ages.
    Posted in: Modern
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