Magic Market Index for Dec 28th, 2018
Magic Market Index for Dec 21st, 2018
Ultimate Masters: MMI Review
  • posted a message on [Primer] (WIP) The Crucible
    Does Assassin's Trophy steal any slots in the deck?
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on Modern Four Horsemen
    So... any new builds now that Creeping Chill can deal up to 4x3=12 points of damage for zero mana?
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on Bubble Hulk
    Quote from Noctali7 »
    May I ask whether you could suggest a cheap(er) alternative manabase to build the deck on MTGO? The other cards are rather affordable, it's just the fetchlands (and shocklands, to a lesser extent) really...
    If you trim down to Rakdos (like ktkenshinx and Exatraz have done on the previous page) you can save yourself the cost of those Scalding Tarns.

    Their manabases each run some number of Fetches/Fastlands which are on the expensive end, but you can probably get by replacing them with a manabase centered around Shocks/Checklands.

    You should probably grab a few MTGO copies of Through the Breach with the savings; it's a useful card for dodging graveyard hate and is cheaper on MTGO right now than it has been in a long time.
    Posted in: Combo
  • posted a message on Death And Taxes
    Quote from eebaf »
    Has anyone tried Eidolon of the Great Revel in RW DnT?
    I've tried it ages ago (pre-AER), and retried it recently with Militia Bugler.

    Initially, with nothing but once-per-turn topdeck draws it was very iffy getting the card in the games you needed it. So some games you drew Vial and Eidolon in that order and were golden, other games you got Eidolon without Vial and were screwed, and some games you're just wishing you'd draw the damn Eidolon. It was extremely high variance, but the goods never felt as great or as frequent as they needed to be.

    With Bugler I found I was much more able to dig into Eidolons when I needed them, or filter past them when I couldn't play around them myself. This really reduced the variance and made them much more survivable. I'm not sure how truly viable it makes them, but it definitely feels much better than before. (It was also nice playing them with 2xCopter as Eidolons do about as much combat as the average Tidehollow Sculler.)

    I don't have any sort of polished list, but will mention Scab-Clan Berserker works great as copies 5-X of Eidolon, and recommend heavily skewing the manabase toward red if you're considering this much double-red.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Death And Taxes
    Quote from ppkitty »
    Great job on the spread sheet.

    Quote from ppkitty »
    ...So on T3 you would have about a 75-85% chance to hit with the standard mono white 14-18 hits (14 assumes you have a couple hits in hand when you cast it)...
    Sure, an oldschool "Classic" Monowhite build might run something like 4xWisp 4xResto and 2xBigFlex (e.g. 3/X bodies like Brimaz, Serra, BigSisThalia) and would have about 10-in-28 bodies unfindable by Bugler... but you're not really going to slot Bugler into a list like that by trimming Thalias, Arbiters, etc.

    If you trim about half the top-end to make room for Bugler, so that only 5-in-28 bodies whiff, then your T3 odds jump from 75-85% up to something more like 85-92% and it gets really hard to completely whiff with Bugler.

    However, the most important thing about Bugler isn't that he simply replaces himself like a Matter Reshaper or something; the important thing is that he digs like a beast for what you want. If you're on a solid opener like T1 Vial T2 Thalia and your opponent kills Thalia because they really want to combo off later, then T3 Bugler is going to dig into a replacement Thalia for you to vial-in about 23% of the time. Yeah, it's not a sure thing, but it's definitely better than waiting on a topdeck. If you break it down into different outcomes it's 23% get the replacement Thalia we'd want, another 18% to get a retry with a second Bugler, then another 45% chance to card-replace with anything else, and only 14% chance to completely whiff. That distribution skews pretty nicely in our favor.

    The other great thing about the card is how often it lets you see every part of your deck. Just landing one or two Buglers makes it really hard to "draw the wrong half of your deck" since you get to churn through so many more cards than usual, which really ups the consistency of the deck. In playtesting I've had 2x includes feel like 3x-4x includes I've been seeing them so often, which is just great for usually-decent-but-situationally-great maindeck cards (and phenomenal for sideboard tech). This actually opens up new deck-design considerations, as 2x includes of creatures like Vryn Wingmare or Aven Mindcensor (which can really put the screws to an opponent when we're ahead on a certain axis, but are quite lackluster when we're behind) can be more viable with Bugler there to filter to/through them.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Death And Taxes

    Militia Bugler Math

    GoogleDoc: Here

    Hey All! I know how much you nerds love seeing some data on the thread... Teach
    ...So here's a hit-percentage table I made for everyone's favorite new card: Militia Bugler. Take a look, leave a like, and DM me here on mtgSalvation if you find any mistakes or have any ideas for improvements.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Death And Taxes
    Quote from xElianx »
    No splash at all, and the list is...
    Any kind of advice or guide for sideboard/match ups is welcome
    It might feel pretty unsplashed since the manabase isn't splashing for any specific color, but there's actually a significant Eldrazi splash you have going on with the 4xDisplacer 3xTKS and 4xTemple.

    Part of your trouble with the posted list versus Affinity specifically is that you're so low on early 1-mana plays and fliers. Running Thraben Inspector can help you chump-clog the ground a bit earlier so you aren't dead as quickly due to lack of blockers. Some cheap fliers can also help in those instances where you don't have a Path/GQ ready versus a Ravager-pumped Inkmoth.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Death And Taxes
    Quote from agua_benta »
    What about it? Seems good to me

    Yeah, if Inspector and Copter taught us anything, it's that white getting more draw/filtering with a body is at least worth testing.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on [deck]The Four Horsemen
    Hey, so I got the itch to look into Four Horsemen again after seeing some new cards out of the latest few sets, but nothing new seemed to improve things much.

    I did revisit the math on adding Viscera Seer to the deck, though, and I think it looks promising.
    If the deck has 1x each of Blasting Station, Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, Sharuum the Hegemon, and Viscera Seer and 2x of Dread Return, then there are 6!=720 possible ways that {BDdESV} can be ordered in a shuffled deck.
    • If Emmy is first: 120 fails, 0 successes. - The remaining five cards {BDdSV} have 5!=120 possible ways to be ordered, but none of it matters since Emmy was first.
    • If Emmy is second: 120 fails, 0 successes. - The other five cards can be split a bunch of ways {B}{DdSV} gives 1!4!=24 ways, {D}{BdSV} gives 1!4! too, {d}{BDSV}, {S}{BDdV}, and {V}{BDdS}. Together that's 5(1!4!)=120 failures, since there's no way to get both Dread Return and a target in front of Emrakul if Emmy is the second card flipped.
    • If Emmy is third: 96 fails, 24 successes. - Again, there are 120 ways to order the non-Emmy cards, and again most of those orders fail. However, Viscera Seer + Dread Return will succeed and can do so with only two cards; it can occur either as {VD}{BdS} or {Vd}{BDS} which can each occur 2!3!=12 ways.
    • If Emmy is fourth: 36 fails, 84 successes. - Again, there are 120 ways to order the non-Emmy cards, but this time most of those orders can succeed and in fact it'll be easier to count the failures than the successes. The only way that we can get 3/5 of our non-Emmy cards and not get either Viscera+Dread or Sharuum+Dread+Blasting is by not getting Dread Return or by getting two Dread Return without Viscera Seer. That's {BSV}{Dd} 3!2!=12 failures, {BDd}{SV} 3!2!=12 fails, and {DdS}{BV} 3!2!=12 failures.
    • If Emmy is fifth: 0 fails, 120 successes. - If you have a Viscera Seer in your top four, then you're guaranteed at least one of the two copies of Dread Return is above Emmy; if Viscera Seer is the only under-Emmy card, then you're guaranteed Sharumm with a Blasting Station and two Dread Returns above Emmy.
    • If Emmy is fifth: 0 fails, 120 successes. - If Emmy is the bottom card you can do whatever you want at sorcery speed.
    Grand total that's 348 successful stacks out of the total 720 possible stacks, for 48.3% odds of hitting a good stack from a randomized deck. It's not amazing, but it's definitely an improvement over the traditional 25% odds of stacking {BDS}E from {BDES}.

    Also important for the discussion of increasing dead cards:
    • BDES: 25% odds. - Playing the old combo without any additional pieces has the fewest dead cards but the lowest non-zero success odds.
    • BbDES: 30% odds. - Doubling up on any single combo piece adds a potential dead card to the deck but boosts the success rate by 5%.
    • BbDdES: 36.6% odds. - Doubling up on any two different combo pieces raises odds by 6.6% with two dead cards.
    • BbDdESs: 45.7% odds. - Doubling up on all three combo pieces raises the odds by a further ~9% but with a total three dead cards.
    • BDdESV: 48.3% odds. - Adding Viscera Seer and a second Dread Return does more with two dead cards than doubling up every combo piece does with three.
    tl;dr - Adding a second Dread Return to the deck along with a single Viscera Seer raises the odds of a randomized deck giving a successful stack of milled combo pieces from 25% to 48.3% for the cost of two "dead" cards. This is even better than the ~46% odds that running 2xSharuum+2xDread+2xBlasting would give.

    The low manacost on Viscera Seer also makes it fairly easy to hardcast, so it's not the worst spell to have in hand either.
    Posted in: Developing (Legacy)
  • posted a message on Death And Taxes
    So here's something mildly interesting, a new Vial-less decklist just 5-0'd a Comp League using Mox Amber in place of Vial.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Modern Four Horsemen
    Traxos, Scourge of Kroog+Banishing Knack

    Hi all! It looks like there's a new tap/untap engine available for testing once DOM releases. All you need are the above two cards and a 0cmc artifact to cast, bounce, and recast as needed.

    Pros include the fact that Banishing Knack/Retraction Helix offer redundancy for one combo piece; you can generate infinite mana with the combo if you make your loop of cast, tap, bounce Mox Opal; with infinite mana you can easily cast Mesmeric Orb from hand to get the mill plan rolling after your mana plan is in effect.

    Cons include the fact that you have to play the smaller combo piece *after* casting the larger; summoning sickness; and the fact that the tap/untap loop occurs at sorcery speed so you can't mill past Emrakul (without adding more cards to make the combo instant speed).

    Looks like it'll be a fun one to test. The infinite-mana engine being easier than the infinite-mill engine might skew these builds from the deck's roots, but maybe it's too early to say that with certainty.
    Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
  • posted a message on Death And Taxes

    After seeing some of Catmix's success (shuffler be damned!) with Baby-Batterskull I thought I'd give the card a spin. I'm really liking it so far in my testing of a low-curve BW list.

    I've been having some luck in the tourney practice room. It feels real grindy since their removal is stretched thin between GBI being a house and all the Scullers stealing cards. Lot of fun so far. Sideboard help would be appreciated; right now it's basically empty with just the 4th GBI and Freebooters 3-4 in there.

    Also, man am I wishing I bought more Kytheon before the DOM spoilers came out; the MTGO cost has doubled since Mox Amber, etc. and all the "legendary matters" news came out.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Death And Taxes
    Has anyone ever tried using creatures with Ghostly Prison effects? ... It seems to me that if any of those were 3 CMC that would be perfect.
    Archangel of Tithes shows up every now and then as a 1-of, but if you include sideboards then non-creature Ghostly Prison itself shows up about 10x as often on mtgTop8.

    I haven't heard of anyone using Muse despite it's less white-strict mana cost (I assume because it's a 4cmc "dies to Bolt" creature). The new creature you mention is at least Bolt proof so there's a chance it might get tested, but the Angel is probably still better due to evasion and the blockers-tax effect (unless there's a new way to bank on some sort of humans, soldiers, or legends tribal synergy).
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Death And Taxes
    Quote from Walk »
    Could this deck be ran without Aether Vial?
    Yes and no. There was a Vial-less list that managed to Top8 at GP Toronto last year, but very few people play with that kind of list and therefore tailored advice for Vial-less decklists is hard to come by.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • posted a message on Death And Taxes
    If we could guarantee at least trading 2-for-2 like that (with us getting to Vindicate our choice of on-board permanents) then Mangara would be amazing, but he usually dies before summoning sickness wears off and allows him to tap for his ability (i.e. he usually only trades 1-for-1 for removal).

    Fiend Hunter is a bit different because (although he can't steal a game as strongly as a multi-recycled Mangara) it is flexible enough to generally a better card even when we don't get to pull off the double-exile trick with it. Fiend Hunter can slow the bleeding by temporarily holding a Goyf in exile, it can facilitate combat tricks by removing attackers/blockers, and a 1/3 isn't a completely useless fighter on the battlefield compared to Mangara being a 1/1.

    Long story short, the ceiling is higher on Mangara (compared to Fiend Hunter) but the floor is also much lower.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
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